2020 Politics Thread - Enter At Your Own Risk - RULES IN OP

[Siberian13]

Originally Posted by pac213up

To win no....to "stomp" Biden as some suggest...yes.

Doesn’t matter how big the win is. It will be considered a stomp by either side. There will be a ton of in you face posts.

[Scottish Punk]

Originally Posted by pac213up

How exactly is Biden going to get stomped? You keep acting like Trump is a popular well liked President. He is not. What additional States is he going to pick up? Do you really think he is winning MI & PA against Biden?

Keep in mind a lot of voters didn't vote or went third party because they hated Clinton. That is out of the picture now. This is evidenced by Bernie's numbers in the primaries. Biden doesn't drum up that hate.

Originally Posted by cnewby

President Trump doesn't need to pick up any states FYI.

True, but he won four states by the slimmest margins that got him the electoral votes to win. He did lose the popular vote (and probably will do so again regardless). I think Biden can flip Pennsylvania and Michigan. That leaves a place like Wisconsin where Trump won by 30,000 votes. That is 36 electoral college points among those states and enough for Biden to win.

[rman112]

Originally Posted by Scottish Punk

True, but he won four states by the slimmest margins that got him the electoral votes to win. He did lose the popular vote (and probably will do so again regardless). I think Biden can flip Pennsylvania and Michigan. That leaves a place like Wisconsin where Trump won by 30,000 votes. That is 36 electoral college points among those states and enough for Biden to win.

Where is this Biden popularity coming from? I feel like Biden is looking good now, but it needs some context. It's coming after the DNC made a heavy push for him, and against Sanders. Trump isn't even in that picture yet.

[Soxfanguy]

With only the swing states left

[Cubsfanp]

Originally Posted by Scottish Punk

Keep in mind a lot of voters didn't vote or went third party because they hated Clinton. That is out of the picture now. This is evidenced by Bernie's numbers in the primaries. Biden doesn't drum up that hate.




True, but he won four states by the slimmest margins that got him the electoral votes to win. He did lose the popular vote (and probably will do so again regardless). I think Biden can flip Pennsylvania and Michigan. That leaves a place like Wisconsin where Trump won by 30,000 votes. That is 36 electoral college points among those states and enough for Biden to win.

Trump won those states because of low democratic voter turnout. Do you think those people who weren't excited to vote for Hillary will all of the sudden be enthusiastically driven to vote for Biden?

I would also argue that Trump's support has increased among the republicans, and that base turnout will be much higher.

[pac213up]

Originally Posted by rman112

Wasn't bad polling blamed for why everyone whiffed in 2016? 538 was basically trying to claim victory because they were less wrong than everyone else.

I know you like polls, but I don't put much faith in them at all.

Am I reading this wrong? Genuine question.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...orability.html

National polls were accurate and State polls were off. Guess what though...pollsters adjust to those mistakes (Education bias was the big one). What about the the 20 years of polling before then, pretty darn accurate but the Trumpers seem to only hold on to 2016.

At the end of the day though what I am looking at in the polls is how Biden compares to Hillary. Again 200k voters between 3 States is what cost Clinton the election. Biden and the Dems are not going to ignore PA and MI they way they did last election. Often this stuff boils down to strategy (ground game) and Clinton's campaign was terrible. The votes are there but can Biden do a better job of getting his to come out and vote. That is the question. In the mean time people can spew all the political rhetoric they want I guess.

I lean towards a Trump victory but the idea the Biden will get blown out seems ridiculous based on the information out there.

[Scottish Punk]

Originally Posted by rman112

Where is this Biden popularity coming from? I feel like Biden is looking good now, but it needs some context. It's coming after the DNC made a heavy push for him, and against Sanders. Trump isn't even in that picture yet.

Yes, the DNC realizes that Bernie on top of the tickets spells doom for an senate and house seats. Bernie's surge has less to do with the "establishment" and more to do with the other candidates dropping out. If you want to argue that the "establishment" convinced the Buttegeig, Klobachar to drop out, I won't argue that. Probably some back door dealing and they may find themselves in cabinet positions.

Bernie's numbers have a built in top in 30/40% range in the big states. With multiple moderates splitting up the other 70%, Bernie could have kept winning states or coming in second with low overall numbers.

Biden also has a lot of cache with the black vote for being VP under Obama.

[Scottish Punk]

Originally Posted by Cubsfanp

Trump won those states because of low democratic voter turnout. Do you think those people who weren't excited to vote for Hillary will all of the sudden be enthusiastically driven to vote for Biden?

I would also argue that Trump's support has increased among the republicans, and that base turnout will be much higher.

The low turnout was because Hillary sucked and many people didn't like her. I don't think Biden drives enthusiasm much, let's face it, he is super boring. I do think the hatred of Trump will make up for it.

The republican turnout will be interesting to watch. Many voters for Trump weren't necessarily fans, but wanted somebody to "shake everything up" deal. How many of those have buyer's remorse or are happy with decision?

[rman112]

Originally Posted by pac213up

National polls were accurate and State polls were off. Guess what though...pollsters adjust to those mistakes (Education bias was the big one). What about the the 20 years of polling before then, pretty darn accurate but the Trumpers seem to only hold on to 2016.

At the end of the day though what I am looking at in the polls is how Biden compares to Hillary. Again 200k voters between 3 States is what cost Clinton the election. Biden and the Dems are not going to ignore PA and MI they way they did last election. Often this stuff boils down to strategy (ground game) and Clinton's campaign was terrible. The votes are there but can Biden do a better job of getting his to come out and vote. That is the question. In the mean time people can spew all the political rhetoric they want I guess.

I lean towards a Trump victory but the idea the Biden will get blown out seems ridiculous based on the information out there.

2016 is the only election where I ever really paid attention to politics. And they got it dead wrong. So you can see why I don't care for the polls when it comes to Trump.

But I just don't see how Biden is going to drum up the motivation for voters. Clinton had something on her side besides the people that vote D no matter what.. women. What is Joe's niche? I don't really see him having any. And the hardcore Bernie supporters aren't voting for him. Biden is just not a good enough candidate to climb the hill that he needs to in order to win.

[rman112]

Originally Posted by Scottish Punk

Yes, the DNC realizes that Bernie on top of the tickets spells doom for an senate and house seats. Bernie's surge has less to do with the "establishment" and more to do with the other candidates dropping out. If you want to argue that the "establishment" convinced the Buttegeig, Klobachar to drop out, I won't argue that. Probably some back door dealing and they may find themselves in cabinet positions.

Bernie's numbers have a built in top in 30/40% range in the big states. With multiple moderates splitting up the other 70%, Bernie could have kept winning states or coming in second with low overall numbers.

Biden also has a lot of cache with the black vote for being VP under Obama.

There's no doubt which way the DNC leans. They've basically done the #Resist movement.. just against Bernie.

My main thing is that it's a hell of a lot easier for Biden to look good now against Bernie than it is if he has to go up against Trump.

[MIRRABB]

Originally Posted by rman112

There's no doubt which way the DNC leans. They've basically done the #Resist movement.. just against Bernie.

My main thing is that it's a hell of a lot easier for Biden to look good now against Bernie than it is if he has to go up against Trump.

Why is that though?

[rman112]

Originally Posted by MIRRABB

Why is that though?

They're essentially holding Bernie's head underwater right now, while giving Biden a swift kick in the ass.. and a bunch of cash to push his campaign.

[rman112]

What's interesting is that the DNC pushed for a seated, "town hall"-type environment for the Arizona debate, with audience questions, instead of a typical moderated debate. But now there won't be any audience at all. I'm sure Biden won't be getting any questions beforehand.

[pac213up]

Originally Posted by rman112

2016 is the only election where I ever really paid attention to politics. And they got it dead wrong. So you can see why I don't care for the polls when it comes to Trump.

But I just don't see how Biden is going to drum up the motivation for voters. Clinton had something on her side besides the people that vote D no matter what.. women. What is Joe's niche? I don't really see him having any. And the hardcore Bernie supporters aren't voting for him. Biden is just not a good enough candidate to climb the hill that he needs to in order to win.

Joe will certainly do better with the minority vote and likely much better with old white men. I don't put much stock into VP's but I think it will matter with him and he has the opportunity to help himself quite a bit there.

[rman112]

Originally Posted by pac213up

Joe will certainly do better with the minority vote and likely much better with old white men.

Than Clinton, or Trump?

[pac213up]

Originally Posted by rman112

Than Clinton, or Trump?

Clinton. Trump (GOP) has old white men on lock.

[TheHeel]

Originally Posted by pac213up

Joe will certainly do better with the minority vote and likely much better with old white men. I don't put much stock into VP's but I think it will matter with him and he has the opportunity to help himself quite a bit there.

My prediction of potential Biden VPs (imho)
1. Kamala (probably better as AG)
2. Amy (safe, uncontroversial pick)
3. Warren (get that progressive-light voters on board)

I think the importance of a VP in this particular election is very, very important. You know Trump will start yapping about Joe’s health (even though Trump himself is obese and has signs of mental decline and overall illness).

[rman112]

Originally Posted by pac213up

Clinton. Trump (GOP) has old white men on lock.

His calling card will be minorities? Do they not already overwhelmingly vote Democratic? And didn't they vote in Clinton's favor?

[discostu]

Originally Posted by Soxfanguy

With only the swing states left

A glaring omission is Florida...the biggest swing state.

With 29 votes, once 8pm EST hits, Florida is the ultimate indicator of direction in presidential elections.

Where Florida goes...so goes the country.

[TheHeel]

Bernie speech at 1. Maybe (hopefully) drop out?

[pac213up]

Originally Posted by TheHeel

My prediction of potential Biden VPs (imho)
1. Kamala (probably better as AG)
2. Amy (safe, uncontroversial pick)
3. Warren (get that progressive-light voters on board)

I think the importance of a VP in this particular election is very, very important. You know Trump will start yapping about Joe’s health (even though Trump himself is obese and has signs of mental decline and overall illness).

Amy or Warren are very likely. Sanders will probably use his pull to try and influence Warren on the ticket IMO. I cannot stand her but she has been a political powerhouse which is hard to ignore. My other question would be how hard does Obama go in here?

[rman112]

Originally Posted by TheHeel

Bernie speech at 1. Maybe (hopefully) drop out?

Why would he drop out?

[Siberian13]

Originally Posted by rman112

Why would he drop out?

Because maybe knows he can’t win as the dem nominee?

[TheHeel]

Originally Posted by pac213up

Amy or Warren are very likely. Sanders will probably use his pull to try and influence Warren on the ticket IMO. I cannot stand her but she has been a political powerhouse which is hard to ignore. My other question would be how hard does Obama go in here?

Obama will endorse when Biden needs that push against Trump.

Originally Posted by rman112

Why would he drop out?

Because he has been taking beatings and knows he will not be the nominee. Look at the numbers from yesterday. Where he beat Hillary in places he wasn’t supposed to in 2016, he took a beating yesterday in those same areas. At this point, why hold down the party?

[rman112]

Originally Posted by Siberian13

Because maybe knows he can’t win as the dem nominee?

I mean, anything's possible. But he doesn't seem like the quitting type. He knew they railed against him in 2016, and he went right back at it. And this is his last chance. Doesn't make sense to me.