HOF prospecting

[joecarterfan]

For the more recent players I've been speculating on, I've been picking up a non-auto Bowman Chrome Blue Refractor for each. Blue has been around a long time, and I like the consistency there. Have quite a few like Verlander, Machado, Lindor, Bregman, Harper, etc.

[Bhenry4]

Don't quite a few speculate now? I know far less than you on this stuff jm, but is the bump that substantial now?

[jmscoggin]

Originally Posted by Bhenry4

Don't quite a few speculate now? I know far less than you on this stuff jm, but is the bump that substantial now?

I don't think speculating is as important with the modern players as it is with the older players. The bump happens with all players but is far more substantial with the older players. Most of the new guys (Griffey, Jeter, Ichiro etc) already have the HOF bump built in the day that they retire.

Even with a guy like Baines who wasn't even thought to be a HOF'er, you would think there would have been a huge spike but there wasn't. It's supply and demand, he has plenty of autos on the market and quite frankly, he doesn't excite collectors, he is just a box to click off of the checklist.

The biggest spikes come from older generations where supply is already low. It can be extreme as was the case in 2006 when they inducted a huge group of Negro Leaguers. Most of those inductees were already extremely rare and valuable and when they were inducted the prices went way up.

The problem is that the internet is so good that it is rare to find someone off of the radar that will eventually get enshrined. Take this year for example, Marvin Miller and Ted Simmons may surprise the casual baseball fan but HOF collectors have known for years that both were more than likely to eventually get in. There is no shortage of articles online discussing them as well as others like them.

In summary, speculating is far less about getting cards before they go up in value and more about the fun in the speculating process. I can't believe I just typed all of that based on your simple post, summarizing has always been an issue for me. I need to learn to be more succinct.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by jmscoggin

Even with a guy like Baines who wasn't even thought to be a HOF'er, you would think there would have been a huge spike but there wasn't. It's supply and demand, he has plenty of autos on the market and quite frankly, he doesn't excite collectors, he is just a box to click off of the checklist.

The problem is that the internet is so good that it is rare to find someone off of the radar that will eventually get enshrined. Take this year for example, Marvin Miller and Ted Simmons may surprise the casual baseball fan but HOF collectors have known for years that both were more than likely to eventually get in. There is no shortage of articles online discussing them as well as others like them.

The other factor is that just because a player gets chosen for the HOF by a committee, it doesn't mean that collectors consider that player to be worthy.

Baines is an example of that. Likewise you're not going to see much of a boost in Simmons' values.

And then you've got the questionable choices by the writers of player who many think are not HOF-worthy, and which therefore do not provide any boost to their card values (for example Biggio, Rice, Morris, Blyleven, etc.).

And going back even further, there are many many HOFers who the hobby views as largely irrelevant from a financial perspective.

[Lancia Stratos]

Bid McPhee paid for my first semester in college. 19th century stuff is about the safest prospecting investment you can find; $500 card can become $5000 overnight. If they don’t make it, it’s still a $500 card

[pewe]

Originally Posted by jmscoggin

I don't think speculating is as important with the modern players as it is with the older players. The bump happens with all players but is far more substantial with the older players. Most of the new guys (Griffey, Jeter, Ichiro etc) already have the HOF bump built in the day that they retire.



Even with a guy like Baines who wasn't even thought to be a HOF'er, you would think there would have been a huge spike but there wasn't. It's supply and demand, he has plenty of autos on the market and quite frankly, he doesn't excite collectors, he is just a box to click off of the checklist.



The biggest spikes come from older generations where supply is already low. It can be extreme as was the case in 2006 when they inducted a huge group of Negro Leaguers. Most of those inductees were already extremely rare and valuable and when they were inducted the prices went way up.



The problem is that the internet is so good that it is rare to find someone off of the radar that will eventually get enshrined. Take this year for example, Marvin Miller and Ted Simmons may surprise the casual baseball fan but HOF collectors have known for years that both were more than likely to eventually get in. There is no shortage of articles online discussing them as well as others like them.



In summary, speculating is far less about getting cards before they go up in value and more about the fun in the speculating process. I can't believe I just typed all of that based on your simple post, summarizing has always been an issue for me. I need to learn to be more succinct.

I wonder if we are working through the players, too, who are from the junk wax era. Thus their base rookie just has such high liquidity that there isn't enough extra demand to drive it up.



But a way to test that: for their rarer cards, do you see more of a pronounced bump?

[jmscoggin]

Originally Posted by pewe

I wonder if we are working through the players, too, who junk wax era. Thus their base rookie just has such high liquidity that there isn't enough extra demand to drive it up.

But a way to test that: for their rarer cards, do you see more of a pronounced bump?

It's a good question but not in my wheelhouse if I'm being honest. I'm an autograph collector and I only want one auto of each HOF'er. I don't care if it's a rookie or not either. As such, I'm not the most knowledgeable across the board on what the bump will does to an enshrinees overall value.

I will say that it seems to follow the overall trend in the hobby, the more popular a player is, the higher the values, regardless of stat lines. The only place I see this not always be the case is if the HOF'er is extremely rare. That can be a Negro Leaguer, Dead Ball era guy or even a recent player that just never signs. Take a Chase Utley for example, he's a fringe candidate at best but he sells for far higher prices than a ton of actual HOF'ers. He just doesn't sign much which drives up values.

As for base RC's, popularity seems to drive values there too, that and nostalgia. It's why guys like Strawberry, Gooden and Bo still sell for more than many HOF'ers. It's why I got almost $500 for my '89 UD Griffey even though I think UD is still printing those.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Bhenry4

Don't quite a few speculate now? I know far less than you on this stuff jm, but is the bump that substantial now?

There's still typically a decent bump. At a minimum, increased sales. There's also an enhanced bump for PSA 10 stuff as those HOF registries need to add HOF rookies cards if they don't already posses them. I'll also note there were 146 Larry Walker 1990 Upper Deck cards on COMC a week ago. There are now 83 remaining. That's some brisk sales for a relative junk set.

I figure Curt Schilling gets in next year. I think Omar gets in in a couple years. Rolen could get in a a couple years. Will be interesting with Clemens and Bonds. I think some voters will turn in year 10 but may not be enough. Walker's entry probably clears the way for Helton in a few years. Maybe Bill Wagner in three or four years. All these rookies can be had relatively cheap. It's just hard to find potential gem copies of most. The 89 Donruss Schilling is a particular beast given dark borders prone to chipping to go along frequent centering issues.

[jmscoggin]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

There's still typically a decent bump. At a minimum, increased sales. There's also an enhanced bump for PSA 10 stuff as those HOF registries need to add HOF rookies cards if they don't already posses them. I'll also note there were 146 Larry Walker 1990 Upper Deck cards on COMC a week ago. There are now 83 remaining. That's some brisk sales for a relative junk set.

I figure Curt Schilling gets in next year. I think Omar gets in in a couple years. Rolen could get in a a couple years. Will be interesting with Clemens and Bonds. I think some voters will turn in year 10 but may not be enough. Walker's entry probably clears the way for Helton in a few years. Maybe Bill Wagner in three or four years. All these rookies can be had relatively cheap. It's just hard to find potential gem copies of most. The 89 Donruss Schilling is a particular beast given dark borders prone to chipping to go along frequent centering issues.

Some great thoughts, thank you for sharing. I submitted a 1990 Fleer Larry Walker to COMC in 2013 and it sold this week. No, I'm not going to retire off of the .37 cent proceeds but without making the HOF, the sale most certainly would not have happened.

In fact, I created the thread thinking about people like me that speculate for PC purposes. I completely overlooked the group of people that speculate for profit. I do it too without really realizing it. In my HOF PC searches both for active and speculating I often come across good deals and buy them intending to flip later. The problem is that I hate selling and they all just sit in boxes waiting for me to get around to it. It isn't likely to ever happen.

[Bhenry4]

Good stuff guys.

[thepointguard10]

Interesting thread to read through so far.

[dbaks]

Great Thread!

A few years back my collecting had no focus. I was drawn to graded rookie cards, but was just grabbing them randomly. Then I decided to focus on PSA graded rookie cards of HOF members (BBWAA vote) that made their MLB debut in 1977 (the year I was born) or later. I've really enjoyed picking up these cards and I like it because every year I need to add to the collection.

The "prospecting" aspect is cool and something I've thought about. I had a lull in collecting from late '17 to early '19 and it cost me not thinking ahead on Mo Rivera especially. This year I had the Jeter already and thought he would be solo. As soon as I heard the HOF rep say "2 inductees....." I jumped on ebay and grabbed a Walker that was still a decent price. I need to be a better "prospector" going forward!

[NickM]

Originally Posted by jmscoggin

I actually felt bad that I sort of insulted him so I did go and read his Wiki right after my post. I'm strange that way, as if he was going to haunt me because I wouldn't pay $100 for his auto and that I'd never heard of him. Anyhow, the guy does have some serious accomplishments but I stand by what I said before. IF he gets in, I'll buy one but that's a big if.

According to Beckett, he has no certified autos, and only 1 card (from the 1984 Reds yearbook, so it's either going to be hand-cut or perforated).

[Skipscards]

I’ve studied the bump phenomenon for years. There is definitely a bump when they announce retirement, get inducted, and pass away. But the bumps vary. Even the aforementioned Baines received a bump. The day he was enshrined demand naturally increased as there are HOF collectors out there who weren’t collecting him before. And his certified autos pre-induction were virtually available for $5-$7 with very little activity (maybe 25 sales a month on eBay). Now they are $7-$10 and probably sell twice as often. Not big numbers, but that’s a bump.

[MoreToppsPlease]

There have always been tiers of hobby popularity with all HOFers, and everyone else, just like how Beckett lists players as super-stars, stars, semi-stars, minor-stars with everyone else being commons. So I guess there’s a set of tiers for HOFers and retired players, and another set of tiers for current players.

[jmscoggin]

Originally Posted by NickM

According to Beckett, he has no certified autos, and only 1 card (from the 1984 Reds yearbook, so it's either going to be hand-cut or perforated).

I'm so deep into the HOF abyss that I stopped caring about certified autos a long time ago. Once you get to a certain tier, there is no such thing as certified. Some guys are so rare that I'd be happy to have their auto on a used piece of toilet paper. Past that tier, some autos just flat don't exist for any price. If you're a completionist like me, standards need to be loosened for progress to be made.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by jmscoggin

I'm so deep into the HOF abyss that I stopped caring about certified autos a long time ago. Once you get to a certain tier, there is no such thing as certified. Some guys are so rare that I'd be happy to have their auto on a used piece of toilet paper. Past that tier, some autos just flat don't exist for any price. If you're a completionist like me, standards need to be loosened for progress to be made.

Unless the toiled paper is horizontal. That’s where Jarod will draw the line. His OCD does have its limits.

[jmscoggin]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

Unless the toiled paper is horizontal. That’s where Jarod will draw the line. His OCD does have its limits.

So much truth here.

[88horsepower]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

I’ve studied the bump phenomenon for years. There is definitely a bump when they announce retirement, get inducted, and pass away. But the bumps vary. Even the aforementioned Baines received a bump. The day he was enshrined demand naturally increased as there are HOF collectors out there who weren’t collecting him before. And his certified autos pre-induction were virtually available for $5-$7 with very little activity (maybe 25 sales a month on eBay). Now they are $7-$10 and probably sell twice as often. Not big numbers, but that’s a bump.

The Baines 81 Fleer RC jumped from $18 to $100 overnight. The 1981 Topps PSA 9 jumped from $15 to $100. His 81 Topps PSA 10 jumped from just over $100 to several hundred. Lee smith also took a huge bump after his enshrinement was announced. His 82 Topps RC jumped from $150 to $800+.

Now, when it’s someone who has a larger population of rookie 10’s and the announcement is fully expected, the bump is far less significant. It’s a supply and demand issue. What I am most curious about is what will happen when Clemens and Bonds get in, which feels inevitable. Both have a large number of 10’s for all of their major rookies, but demand is higher. I wonder what kind of bump we’ll see when they get their day.

[jmscoggin]

Originally Posted by 88horsepower

What I am most curious about is what will happen when Clemens and Bonds get in, which feels inevitable. Both have a large number of 10’s for all of their major rookies, but demand is higher. I wonder what kind of bump we’ll see when they get their day.

I'm intrigued by this as well. Most people think their enshrinement is inevitable plus they both have huge fan bases even if they don't get in. That is why their prices are already relatively high. I do think there will be a bump but wouldn't imagine that it would be significant, at least not long term. Then again, I wouldn't be shocked if there was. I could see the casual fans impulse buying each much like was discussed with Griffey earlier, that would certainly drive up pricing.

[88horsepower]

Originally Posted by jmscoggin

I'm intrigued by this as well. Most people think their enshrinement is inevitable plus they both have huge fan bases even if they don't get in. That is why their prices are already relatively high. I do think there will be a bump but wouldn't imagine that it would be significant, at least not long term. Then again, I wouldn't be shocked if there was. I could see the casual fans impulse buying each much like was discussed with Griffey earlier, that would certainly drive up pricing.

That's what I'm thinking, too. It's certainly not hard to find a PSA 10 of say a 1987 Fleer Bonds or a 1985 Donruss Clemens, but I can see the impulse buying happening. The truly rarer cards like 1987 O-Pee-Chee Bonds, 1987 Leaf Bonds, 1986 TT Tiffany Bonds will probably be the ones that have the largest margin for increase due to scarcity. 84 Fleer Update Clemens is the one I seriously wonder about. It's at around $700 now. Could it hit $1,000?

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by 88horsepower

84 Fleer Update Clemens is the one I seriously wonder about. It's at around $700 now. Could it hit $1,000?

Yep. I would predict some HOF set registry collectors would have no trouble hitting a $1000 BIN if he can scrape together 75%. He would need to obtain an additional 56 votes via flip/add assuming same number of ballots as this year without losing any votes (like silly Peter Gammons did on Larry Walker). The newer voters tend to favor him while the older ones do not. Voter turnover will help his count and I think some older voters will grudgingly flip in year 10... but he only got a few extra this year.

[Skipscards]

On Bonds and Clemens...
The bump would happen because demand will increase simply because new buyers would enter the market.

As to the degree of said bump, this would depend on timing. I agree their induction is inevitable. However, that induction will either happen in their remaining years of eligibility or it will happen 50 years from now.

[jmscoggin]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

I agree their induction is inevitable. However, that induction will either happen in their remaining years of eligibility or it will happen 50 years from now.

Long term speculating?

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by jmscoggin

Long term speculating?

Absolutely. You have to have short term and long term investments in your portfolio. I’m also hanging on to all my Sidd Finch autos.