SlabStox Grading Multiplier - Data Driven (BGS 9.5, 10, BL, PSA 10)

Brewers3 · 02-26-2019, 06:56 AM

After refining it for a month, the SlabStox grading multiplier is here.

Right after I published my color multiplier, I got to work on a grading multiplier. I had over 1,000 data points in the color multiplier, but there were a few short comings (relevant time period to sales which skewed some results). I tried to make those tweaks with this grading multiplier, and later at some point, I will update my color multiplier and make it as cohesive as possible with the grading multiplier.

This grading multiplier was created by using over 1,200 base auto sales from the past few years. I tried to pull in a diverse amount of time periods accounting for differences in prospects' life span, meaning, not every sale was taken when they were top ten prospects.

Of those 1,200 sales, players included are: Brendan McKay, Royce Lewis, Heliot Ramos, Alex Kirilloff, Keston Hiura, MacKenzie Gore, Kyle Lewis, Keibert Ruiz, Carter Kieboom, Sixto Sanchez, Bo Bichette, Jesus Luzardo, Kyle Tucker, Nick Senzel, Jazz Chisholm, Forrest Whitley, Victor Robles, Eloy Jimenez, Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Fernando Tatis, Alex Bregman, Ronald Acuña Jr., Mickey Moniak, Estevan Florial, Andres Gimenez, Nolan Gorman, Nico Hoerner

Before viewing and using the grading multiplier, there are a few notes to point out.

1. This is NOT a be all, end all grading multiplier. It is impossible to create a hard multiplier since there are a lot of things that go into graded card pricing (POP report, sub grades on a BGS 9.5, skill of prospect, position). This is an attempt to provide you with something that can get relatively close to what a graded card multiplier should be! Use it as you would like, but do not use it to figure out what every single raw card would be worth if graded.

2. This does not work for top five prospects. You may say, "but they're the most traded; it should work for them!" True. They are the most traded. That means you can go to eBay, and there are plenty of completed auctions to give you a value for your BGS 9.5s and PSA 10s, so you should not have to use a multiplier. I have provided an example below of what the multiplier does to top five prospects.

3. So, there are no completed sales for your BGS 10 or BGS 10 Black Label of a top five prospect? Well, you're in luck! These BGS 10 and BGS 10 BL multipliers are a rough outline of what yours could be worth. However, BGS 10s are volatile, and it all has to do with what a person is willing to pay at a certain time. So, take the BGS 10 multipliers for what it's worth, which could turn out to be not much.

4. For the Black Label multiplier, I wanted to get a decent group of prospect sales that would create a general multiplier. I used Brendan McKay, Heliot Ramos, Nick Senzel, and Ronald Acuña. The multipliers for each were 8.46, 7.36, 7.39, 4.96, which led to an averaged multiplier of 7.04. If I did not include Acuña, it would be 7.74. Use whichever number you like.

5. Currently, this is just for base. But like I said, in the future, color will get its own treatment.

6. Enjoy it! This is a fun tool you can use to play around with different prospects and see how far or how close away it is from your investment pieces. I'd love to hear some feedback on the +/- of a couple different players you have investment interest in to see the accuracy!

The Multiplier (Base x Multiplier)

To use this multiplier, you take the present value of a Base Bowman Chrome auto and multiply it by the number corresponding with the grade of your desired card. For the BGS 9.5 to PSA 10, take the value of a BGS 9.5 and multiply it by 1.12 for a PSA 10.

Now for some examples.

Listed is each prospect's multiplier prices (based off of recently sold base autos), their actual value of the graded cards, and then the difference between the multiplier and the actual value.

For the top five, there is a big difference. The closest one is the Fernando Tatis PSA 10 within around $10. The good news is there are plenty of eBay sales for you to judge your cards off of, so there is no need to use the multiplier on those guys.

To give a glimpse into the actual multiplier of top five prospects, here are their current numbers.

Next up are four top 100 prospects to show how the 25 to 100 range compares. In my opinion, these are closer to the type of prospects a multiplier would need to be applied to anyways.

Out of these four, the Gavin Lux PSA 10 and Carter Kieboom PSA 10 are the biggest discrepancies. I did some population report research, and there are 60 Lux PSA 10 base autos and 72 Kieboom PSA 10 base autos. Compare that to the 180 Jesus Sanchez PSA 10s, and we can see where the price difference is coming from.

If all of the actual BGS 9.5 to PSA 10 multipliers of the prospects above were averaged, it would be 1.17, which is close to the SlabStox multiplier of 1.12.

My hope is this answers some of your questions based on the price difference not only between ungraded and graded, but PSA and BGS as well. Clearly, the BGS 10 potential is worth it for cards that appear to be Pristine. However, if there are cards you think are either BGS 9.5s or PSA 10s, PSA will yield the higher value.

Previously on SlabStox: Stop, Drop, and Sell: 4 MUST Sell Prospects

Next on SlabStox: BGS 9 and PSA 9 Multiplier

THANK YOU ALL FOR THE SUPPORT

https://www.slabstox.com/investment-...er-data-driven

*Apologies for the low resolution pictures. Can't figure out how to get imgur to not reduce resolution when resized.

JDubs80 · 02-26-2019, 07:00 AM

Very nice! Great work

Triple B · 02-26-2019, 07:19 AM

That pretty cool...great work indeed.

dbpsooner · 02-26-2019, 08:10 AM

Good info. My only comment would be that all bgs 9.5s are not created equal. I would be just as interested to see the multiplier between a min grade 9.5 and a true gem 9.5 and to further that see how they compare to the others.

Brewers3 · 02-26-2019, 08:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JDubs80

Very nice! Great work

Quote:

Originally Posted by Triple B

That pretty cool...great work indeed.

Thanks guys!

Quote:

Originally Posted by dbpsooner

Good info. My only comment would be that all bgs 9.5s are not created equal. I would be just as interested to see the multiplier between a min grade 9.5 and a true gem 9.5 and to further that see how they compare to the others.

And don't worry, I definitely thought about it. I made a comment about it in the notes. I tried to use a ton of different data points to get something pretty consistent across the board, but you're right there is difference. And after using the multiplier its user discretion for sub grade value.

Since I cannot see the actual images of the cards from before March 2018, it would limit the amount of data that would be used, but there should be enough that I could whip up something with less data points (but should still be accurate). That is a really good point, and it could be another avenue of research for me.

Brewers3 · 02-28-2019, 01:03 PM

UPDATE TO MULTIPLIER

A couple members on Instagram requested I do research on Mint BGS 9 and PSA 9 Bowman Chrome autos to see if there is any difference in value from ungraded cards, extending the grading multiplier.

Normally, it would take me a long time to compile a list of sales for multipliers. Luckily, I was able to use the same list as the Gem Mint/Pristine grading multiplier while adding BGS 9 and PSA 9 sales to it.
Through my years of collecting, I have always heard "ungraded is comparable in value to a BGS 9 or PSA 9." Well, it held true (for this 200+ sample size).

The Multiplier (Base x Multiplier)

There is a .02 difference between the two, but let's be real, it is a difference of $0.50 on a $50 card, so it is virtually the same.

Was I shocked to find this out?

No, not at all. I'm pretty sure a lot of investors could tell you this was going to happen; however, there was no confirmation from data until I ran the numbers.

To end this short article, I am going to show off some cards graded BGS 9 and PSA 9 to show appreciation for Mint cards!

Happy Collecting!

https://www.slabstox.com/investment-...-than-ungraded

drstrader5 · 02-28-2019, 01:27 PM

Really like the stuff you’ve done so far, couldn’t agree more with your 4 to sell article. Also like that you used a pic of my red Madrigal in your write up of him.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

jwall1313 · 02-09-2025, 12:09 PM

I've been trying to find a source that will provide me with relative values for different grades based upon the grade of the card I am holding. I built this model to help folks looking for the same thing. This post was one of the sources I used. I also found some stuff on X from ChromeProspects, YouTube content from Sports Card Collector Chronicles. The way to use the model is as follows:

Let's say you are holding a PSA 9 but the only sales you can find are for a PSA 10. Let's assume that sale was $100. You find the grade in the first column you have the sold price for and then you multiply that price by the factor for the grade you are holding in your hand.

In this example, you hold the PSA 9 but have sold price for PSA 10 ($100), so you find the cross section for PSA 9 in first column and the PSA 10 column in the PSA 9 row (which is .32). So your PSA 10 is roughly worth .32 x $100 or $32.

I'm posting this for public use but also to see if the community agrees with the relative values I have used. Some of the source data is a 4-5 years old and some of this could have changed (e.g., Beckett values might be even worse?).

Also, this is a general guide. Sports and Player specific values, pop counts, timeframe of relative sales, etc. can all impact multiples.

Please let me know your thoughts. I will incorporate into an updated version.

Big35Hurt · 02-09-2025, 05:25 PM

Great stuff and very helpful. Thank you for putting this together.

jwall1313 · 02-14-2025, 06:37 PM

Thanks bighurt. Any other comments are welcomed.

jimz · 02-20-2025, 11:29 AM

This is great as a reference. You can actually get all of the PSA auction sale data they collected without anything more than just right-click view-source (although, it's obviously way quicker if you automate the process and hit up its trpc api, but I don't want to get banned by PSA, which is likely to happen not when I actually scrape their api but when I share the output. But since here they are literally sharing it with me and it's literally unavoidable if you use their auction price page on any card they have data on, and mere aggregation of raw data, especially within the scope of allowed access, is neither copyrightable nor subject to the CFAA, I feel pretty safe in that if they decide to make the data available, it's fair game. And yes, thanks to the idiotic way the DMCA is worded I have to do a legal analysis for myself and myself only while posting these ambiguous things to be safe. If you are simply analyzing the data then it pretty much is by definition transformative use, but that's just a hypo, not legal advice.)

This is their public aggregation of the 2018 Topps Update Juan Soto #300:

https://pastebin.com/bXZEApzC

(There are better ways to display json but most of them don't have a save function)

To what extent you want to, if you decide to do so at all, to at least make a time-series-based ratio comparison and on what cards is your call, but they do have reams of data and it's public and even ready for ingestion into most modern databases. The ebay prices are hammer prices and the fees are not accounted for, btw. Can't speak for the other auction houses.

02-26-2019, 06:56 AM	#1
Brewers3 Banned Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 2,561	SlabStox Grading Multiplier - Data Driven (BGS 9.5, 10, BL, PSA 10) After refining it for a month, the SlabStox grading multiplier is here. Right after I published my color multiplier, I got to work on a grading multiplier. I had over 1,000 data points in the color multiplier, but there were a few short comings (relevant time period to sales which skewed some results). I tried to make those tweaks with this grading multiplier, and later at some point, I will update my color multiplier and make it as cohesive as possible with the grading multiplier. This grading multiplier was created by using over 1,200 base auto sales from the past few years. I tried to pull in a diverse amount of time periods accounting for differences in prospects' life span, meaning, not every sale was taken when they were top ten prospects. Of those 1,200 sales, players included are: Brendan McKay, Royce Lewis, Heliot Ramos, Alex Kirilloff, Keston Hiura, MacKenzie Gore, Kyle Lewis, Keibert Ruiz, Carter Kieboom, Sixto Sanchez, Bo Bichette, Jesus Luzardo, Kyle Tucker, Nick Senzel, Jazz Chisholm, Forrest Whitley, Victor Robles, Eloy Jimenez, Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Fernando Tatis, Alex Bregman, Ronald Acuña Jr., Mickey Moniak, Estevan Florial, Andres Gimenez, Nolan Gorman, Nico Hoerner Before viewing and using the grading multiplier, there are a few notes to point out. 1. This is NOT a be all, end all grading multiplier. It is impossible to create a hard multiplier since there are a lot of things that go into graded card pricing (POP report, sub grades on a BGS 9.5, skill of prospect, position). This is an attempt to provide you with something that can get relatively close to what a graded card multiplier should be! Use it as you would like, but do not use it to figure out what every single raw card would be worth if graded. 2. This does not work for top five prospects. You may say, "but they're the most traded; it should work for them!" True. They are the most traded. That means you can go to eBay, and there are plenty of completed auctions to give you a value for your BGS 9.5s and PSA 10s, so you should not have to use a multiplier. I have provided an example below of what the multiplier does to top five prospects. 3. So, there are no completed sales for your BGS 10 or BGS 10 Black Label of a top five prospect? Well, you're in luck! These BGS 10 and BGS 10 BL multipliers are a rough outline of what yours could be worth. However, BGS 10s are volatile, and it all has to do with what a person is willing to pay at a certain time. So, take the BGS 10 multipliers for what it's worth, which could turn out to be not much. 4. For the Black Label multiplier, I wanted to get a decent group of prospect sales that would create a general multiplier. I used Brendan McKay, Heliot Ramos, Nick Senzel, and Ronald Acuña. The multipliers for each were 8.46, 7.36, 7.39, 4.96, which led to an averaged multiplier of 7.04. If I did not include Acuña, it would be 7.74. Use whichever number you like. 5. Currently, this is just for base. But like I said, in the future, color will get its own treatment. 6. Enjoy it! This is a fun tool you can use to play around with different prospects and see how far or how close away it is from your investment pieces. I'd love to hear some feedback on the +/- of a couple different players you have investment interest in to see the accuracy! The Multiplier (Base x Multiplier) To use this multiplier, you take the present value of a Base Bowman Chrome auto and multiply it by the number corresponding with the grade of your desired card. For the BGS 9.5 to PSA 10, take the value of a BGS 9.5 and multiply it by 1.12 for a PSA 10. Now for some examples. Listed is each prospect's multiplier prices (based off of recently sold base autos), their actual value of the graded cards, and then the difference between the multiplier and the actual value. For the top five, there is a big difference. The closest one is the Fernando Tatis PSA 10 within around $10. The good news is there are plenty of eBay sales for you to judge your cards off of, so there is no need to use the multiplier on those guys. To give a glimpse into the actual multiplier of top five prospects, here are their current numbers. Next up are four top 100 prospects to show how the 25 to 100 range compares. In my opinion, these are closer to the type of prospects a multiplier would need to be applied to anyways. Out of these four, the Gavin Lux PSA 10 and Carter Kieboom PSA 10 are the biggest discrepancies. I did some population report research, and there are 60 Lux PSA 10 base autos and 72 Kieboom PSA 10 base autos. Compare that to the 180 Jesus Sanchez PSA 10s, and we can see where the price difference is coming from. If all of the actual BGS 9.5 to PSA 10 multipliers of the prospects above were averaged, it would be 1.17, which is close to the SlabStox multiplier of 1.12. My hope is this answers some of your questions based on the price difference not only between ungraded and graded, but PSA and BGS as well. Clearly, the BGS 10 potential is worth it for cards that appear to be Pristine. However, if there are cards you think are either BGS 9.5s or PSA 10s, PSA will yield the higher value. Previously on SlabStox: Stop, Drop, and Sell: 4 MUST Sell Prospects Next on SlabStox: BGS 9 and PSA 9 Multiplier THANK YOU ALL FOR THE SUPPORT https://www.slabstox.com/investment-...er-data-driven Apologies for the low resolution pictures. Can't figure out how to get imgur to not reduce resolution when resized. Last edited by Brewers3; 02-26-2019 at 07:01 AM.*

02-26-2019, 07:00 AM	#2
JDubs80 Member Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 1,203 mhs1998	Very nice! Great work

02-26-2019, 07:19 AM	#3
Triple B Member Join Date: Jan 2012 Location: Toronto Posts: 6,228	That pretty cool...great work indeed. __________________ Wanted Dead or Alive! 1. 1997 Bowman's Best Jose Cruz, Jr Atomic Refractor Autograph 2. 1997 SPx Jose Cruz, Jr. Grand Finale /50

02-26-2019, 08:10 AM	#4
dbpsooner Member Join Date: Apr 2015 Location: Omaha Posts: 2,990 dbpsooner	Good info. My only comment would be that all bgs 9.5s are not created equal. I would be just as interested to see the multiplier between a min grade 9.5 and a true gem 9.5 and to further that see how they compare to the others.

02-28-2019, 01:03 PM	#6
Brewers3 Banned Join Date: Jul 2017 Posts: 2,561	UPDATE TO MULTIPLIER A couple members on Instagram requested I do research on Mint BGS 9 and PSA 9 Bowman Chrome autos to see if there is any difference in value from ungraded cards, extending the grading multiplier. Normally, it would take me a long time to compile a list of sales for multipliers. Luckily, I was able to use the same list as the Gem Mint/Pristine grading multiplier while adding BGS 9 and PSA 9 sales to it. Through my years of collecting, I have always heard "ungraded is comparable in value to a BGS 9 or PSA 9." Well, it held true (for this 200+ sample size). The Multiplier (Base x Multiplier) There is a .02 difference between the two, but let's be real, it is a difference of $0.50 on a $50 card, so it is virtually the same. Was I shocked to find this out? No, not at all. I'm pretty sure a lot of investors could tell you this was going to happen; however, there was no confirmation from data until I ran the numbers. To end this short article, I am going to show off some cards graded BGS 9 and PSA 9 to show appreciation for Mint cards! Happy Collecting! https://www.slabstox.com/investment-...-than-ungraded

02-28-2019, 01:27 PM	#7
drstrader5 Member Join Date: Apr 2017 Location: Pittsburgh Posts: 1,809 drstrade5 danstrader5	Really like the stuff you’ve done so far, couldn’t agree more with your 4 to sell article. Also like that you used a pic of my red Madrigal in your write up of him. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

02-09-2025, 05:25 PM	#9
Big35Hurt Member Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 9,598	Great stuff and very helpful. Thank you for putting this together.

02-14-2025, 06:37 PM	#10
jwall1313 Member Join Date: Aug 2023 Posts: 53	Thanks bighurt. Any other comments are welcomed.

02-20-2025, 11:29 AM	#11
jimz Member Join Date: May 2024 Location: Las Vegas, NV Posts: 68 jimzhou	This is great as a reference. You can actually get all of the PSA auction sale data they collected without anything more than just right-click view-source (although, it's obviously way quicker if you automate the process and hit up its trpc api, but I don't want to get banned by PSA, which is likely to happen not when I actually scrape their api but when I share the output. But since here they are literally sharing it with me and it's literally unavoidable if you use their auction price page on any card they have data on, and mere aggregation of raw data, especially within the scope of allowed access, is neither copyrightable nor subject to the CFAA, I feel pretty safe in that if they decide to make the data available, it's fair game. And yes, thanks to the idiotic way the DMCA is worded I have to do a legal analysis for myself and myself only while posting these ambiguous things to be safe. If you are simply analyzing the data then it pretty much is by definition transformative use, but that's just a hypo, not legal advice.) This is their public aggregation of the 2018 Topps Update Juan Soto #300: https://pastebin.com/bXZEApzC (There are better ways to display json but most of them don't have a save function) To what extent you want to, if you decide to do so at all, to at least make a time-series-based ratio comparison and on what cards is your call, but they do have reams of data and it's public and even ready for ingestion into most modern databases. The ebay prices are hammer prices and the fees are not accounted for, btw. Can't speak for the other auction houses.