First Buzz: 2019 Topps Heritage baseball cards - Page 38

cj828282 · 02-26-2019, 06:31 PM

First throwback listed. Haniger.

daviswr7 · 02-26-2019, 06:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parkerj33

On closer review Super stock is not as thick as 1970.

Gold tucker #5/5
Torres error (yellow bar vs white bar)
Davis color swap. (Black is variation)

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that is a really nice gold refractor

Carrbeaz · 02-26-2019, 06:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dodgerfanjohn

Linder and Baez are the only ones I see and those won’t be even $8 shipped in a month.

With that attitude want them to sell at $8 shipped now and be $2 shipped in a month, because that is what happens if you think first and second day sales should be equal to the month out price.

parkerj33 · 02-26-2019, 06:49 PM

Yes tucker and most autos will be for sale.

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pewe · 02-26-2019, 07:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pewe

I found the hobby pack # using black border #/50... that is 1.3mm in 2018. Retail has much higher print run, so you could imagine that adding another 4-6x.

The odds on that dual relic auto was 1:224k packs it seems. And yes, 40-50 cards (some were supposedly less than #/10, but all the ones I know were 10, so probably more than 40 cards). So you can back into ~10mm from that, too.

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OK, finally had the time to model out hobby + retail numbers with actual pack odds.

Know folks have posted the Hobby part previously. Thought it might be interesting to see what retail might be adding.

Do these numbers jive with what others have calculated?

Based on the pack odds I've seen posted in here, for 2019, it looks like:
-- Hobby = 1.524 million packs = 63,500 boxes = 5291 cases
-- Retail = 4.16 million "blaster pack equivalents"*** see below for my note on why I did this

Implications for non-numbered card counts:
-- Short Print = ~19,000/card

Also, surprised me that on an odds / pack retail was similar odds, or just a little worse:
-- blue autos were just half as common in retail
-- red autos are just as common in retail
-- also Chromes and most of their parallels, trade, nickname, error, throwback, etc. are also just as common retail vs. hobby box

Of course you miss out on other parallels by buying retail, like action image, black border, flip stock, team name, and a bunch of ultra rare patch and cut signatures.

Calculation NOTE:
-- hobby estimated based on Chrome Gold #/5 only in Hobby, with print run of 100 cards, and odds of 1:3048 packs
-- retail I didn't have the time to try and split super precisely between blasters, hangers, fat packs, and gravity feed... but based on printed odds, their ratios based on card/pack remained pretty similar, so I just estimated as a "blaster pack equivalent"
-- retail "blaster pack equivalent" calculated using remaining number of Chrome SuperFractors not included in Hobby that must be in retail, and the blaster odds of Chrome SuperFractors at 1:56365 packs

anusinha · 02-26-2019, 07:18 PM

so there's 3 times as many packs in retail as hobby? wow

I estimated 5000 cases for hobby using a 5-10% rate for holdbacks

ThoseBackPages · 02-26-2019, 07:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by anusinha

so there's 3 times as many packs in retail as hobby? wow

I estimated 5000 cases for hobby using a 5-10% rate for holdbacks

seems like a low amount indeed!

dodgerfanjohn · 02-26-2019, 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carrbeaz

With that attitude want them to sell at $8 shipped now and be $2 shipped in a month, because that is what happens if you think first and second day sales should be equal to the month out price.

$8 plus $4 shipping is $12. Anyone paying more than that is an impulsive buffoon.

ShtHairMcGee · 02-26-2019, 07:38 PM

3 boxes into my case
Ohtani /999
Soto team swap
Ohtani real one
Acuna action
Yelich Refractor /570
Angels rookie flip stock

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Stech36 · 02-26-2019, 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dodgerfanjohn

$8 plus $4 shipping is $12. Anyone paying more than that is an impulsive buffoon.

I just sold my Baez for $24 shipped.

pewe · 02-26-2019, 07:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

seems like a low amount indeed!

3x retail is too small of an estimate in your mind?

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daviswr7 · 02-26-2019, 07:49 PM

How does this years heritage print run compare to the last few years?

Anyone have those numbers??

dodgerfanjohn · 02-26-2019, 07:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stech36

I just sold my Baez for $24 shipped.

Good job. I’m impressed. My comments about such a buyer remain.

PDCCollectibles · 02-26-2019, 07:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dodgerfanjohn

$8 plus $4 shipping is $12. Anyone paying more than that is an impulsive buffoon.

....or they have the $$, want the card, don't feel like waiting and could care less about saving a few bucks at a later date. There are deep pockets in this hobby and if they want it they grab it....i.e., Olberman about 5 years+ ago.

Stech36 · 02-26-2019, 07:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dodgerfanjohn

Good job. I’m impressed. My comments about such a buyer remain.

Do you also agree that the seller who sold the Baez for $12 dlvd is also an “impulsive buffoon?” Because he left $12 minimum on the table

ThoseBackPages · 02-26-2019, 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pewe

3x retail is too small of an estimate in your mind?

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i would think there would be a lot more retail

ThoseBackPages · 02-26-2019, 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by daviswr7

How does this years heritage print run compare to the last few years?

Anyone have those numbers??

no reason for it to not be increased

Mr Wells · 02-26-2019, 07:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShtHairMcGee

3 boxes into my case
Ohtani /999
Soto team swap
Ohtani real one
Acuna action
Yelich Refractor /570
Angels rookie flip stock

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

Love how Ohtani puts his jersey #. Nice stuff.

Soxfanguy · 02-26-2019, 08:03 PM

What happens when you scratch off the scratch-off card? Is there like a code for a card in it?

pewe · 02-26-2019, 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by daviswr7

How does this years heritage print run compare to the last few years?

Anyone have those numbers??

Somewhere earlier in this thread someone was quoting the chrome odds over like the last 4-5 years... if they are a good way to estimate it, then it seemed like this year's print run is up like 30% from last year. As it has been up every year for a few years before that, too.

PDCCollectibles · 02-26-2019, 08:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Soxfanguy

What happens when you scratch off the scratch-off card? Is there like a code for a card in it?

Nah, you basically play a game of baseball by scratching off blocks....

Soxfanguy · 02-26-2019, 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PDCCollectibles

Nah, you basically play a game of baseball by scratching off blocks....

Darn, I thought it would be like the rip cards from A&G

TheWrightStuff · 02-26-2019, 08:11 PM

Redemption up for Acuna/Chipper/Hank aaron triple auto. Will be a cool card if it ever gets made.

ThoseBackPages · 02-26-2019, 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheWrightStuff

Redemption up for Acuna/Chipper/Hank aaron triple auto. Will be a cool card if it ever gets made.

Grab it!

dodgerfanjohn · 02-26-2019, 08:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stech36

Do you also agree that the seller who sold the Baez for $12 dlvd is also an “impulsive buffoon?” Because he left $12 minimum on the table

Probably. Or horribly uniformed.

02-26-2019, 07:38 PM	#934
ShtHairMcGee Member Join Date: Jun 2010 Location: California Posts: 6,638	3 boxes into my case Ohtani /999 Soto team swap Ohtani real one Acuna action Yelich Refractor /570 Angels rookie flip stock Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk __________________ HOARDING: Dominique Curry 29/36 (6-1/1's) Mouschi Customs: 2...and counting

02-26-2019, 08:03 PM	#944
Soxfanguy Member Join Date: Aug 2018 Location: White Sox Posts: 15,579 Soxfanguy	What happens when you scratch off the scratch-off card? Is there like a code for a card in it? __________________ ok

02-26-2019, 06:31 PM	#926
cj828282 Member Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 13,967	First throwback listed. Haniger.

02-26-2019, 06:49 PM	#929
parkerj33 Member Join Date: May 2011 Location: Manlius, NY Posts: 1,867 Parker_Cards	Yes tucker and most autos will be for sale. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

02-26-2019, 07:18 PM	#931
anusinha Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 13,625	so there's 3 times as many packs in retail as hobby? wow I estimated 5000 cases for hobby using a 5-10% rate for holdbacks

02-26-2019, 07:49 PM	#937
daviswr7 Member Join Date: May 2013 Location: Dagobah Posts: 7,470	How does this years heritage print run compare to the last few years? Anyone have those numbers??

02-26-2019, 08:11 PM	#948
TheWrightStuff Member Join Date: Aug 2017 Location: Texas Posts: 6,826 Nathan104	Redemption up for Acuna/Chipper/Hank aaron triple auto. Will be a cool card if it ever gets made.