First Buzz: 2018 Topps Heritage baseball cards - Page 76

DJP73 · 02-23-2018, 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brentandbecca

I expected production to be up no doubt, but to be honest it is quite a bit higher than I would have expected. This is the largest production increase I recall since the second year of gypsy queen. But the first year of gypsy queen they only made 900 cases and it was a huge hit so they more than doubled production that second year. But for an existing product this one took quite a jump and even surprises me.

Hobby looks to be up 40% on the dot.

Chromes and actions were 1:25 last year. Now 1:35 each.
Autos odds indicate 1 per case although I expect we will see many cases with 2.

I will have more info shortly, but I will not be around to answer questions as I have a very busy weekend ahead because I still am working on my 680 sets of series 1 and I need to get as much done before heritage arrives next week. Not to mention I need to prep for heritage. Besides, outside of basic odds, I won’t have any other information and it would all just be speculation.

Hey Brent at one auto per case, this could be brutal. I think we need to see a few breaks to see. Most likely 2 per case!!

ThoseBackPages · 02-23-2018, 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by travuw

Given some of the odds changes, my week one avg. price prediction for the Ohtani action is $225. Blue auto: $1800 Red auto (if it exists): $3000

too low!

phil · 02-23-2018, 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carrbeaz

Distributors are going to regret holding back this product.

In the sense that the upcoming terrible breaks/poor value are going to negatively affect sales on future products, yes. Heritage itself isn't going to drop anywhere near cost or anything like that. The general public/lottery ticket consumers will be the ones opening it and will prop it up to some extent.

DJP73 · 02-23-2018, 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

too low!

Depends on what he does tomorrow alot!!

ThoseBackPages · 02-23-2018, 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJP73

Depends on what he does tomorrow alot!!

true!

1-2-3 IP, 2K's and its FIYA!

kyle1707 · 02-23-2018, 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carrbeaz

Distributors are going to regret holding back this product.

With Brents number of 40% increase

There are 100's and 100's of cases sitting out the first week of release...

So Brent is it a jump from 2500 cases to 3500?

Truthfully i dont remember how many they make...

With 40% increase holy crap will there be bare cases

ThoseBackPages · 02-23-2018, 05:16 PM

i now figured out why cases are 1400+

Asian High Roller Market

if they can rip Flawless/NT/Exquisite by the pallet, then Heritage cases at 1400 are like a drop in the bucket

kyle1707 · 02-23-2018, 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

i now figured out why cases are 1400+

Asian High Roller Market

if they can rip Flawless/NT/Exquisite by the pallet, then Heritage cases at 1400 are like a drop in the bucket

There will be 120 dollar boxes with no auto chrome action... all base and inserts and a sweet clubhouse collection white jersey

Maybe this is a good thing... slow people down in future and boxes will max out at 80-85 and not 110-120

brentandbecca · 02-23-2018, 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by phil

It would be if they were numbered. The print run should be straightforward when we learn odds on black borders, gold chromes, dual autos etc.

Actions aren’t numbered but they make the same amount every year regardless of production

ThoseBackPages · 02-23-2018, 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kyle1707

There will be 120 dollar boxes with no auto chrome action... all base and inserts and a sweet clubhouse collection white jersey

Maybe this is a good thing... slow people down in future and boxes will max out at 80-85 and not 110-120

very true!

brentandbecca · 02-23-2018, 05:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJP73

Hey Brent at one auto per case, this could be brutal. I think we need to see a few breaks to see. Most likely 2 per case!!

I said that above. That many cases will see 2 based on all other types of autos.
Reds are 1:1000+ packs. And pilots are linked to 100 and 1:3500 something.
Plus there are tougher pulls like auto relics. Etc.

kyle1707 · 02-23-2018, 05:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carrbeaz

Distributors are going to regret holding back this product.

i agree... Heck series 1 hobby and jumbos are back in right around cost at my dist...

Heritage will never go to cost... But with this massive increase... maybe 80-85

1 auto a case is awful... hopefully 2

action at 9 per case is a good thing.. help with value?

i have always said 6 per case should be max... value has been bad of late imo

travuw · 02-23-2018, 05:25 PM

If Pilots are that rare, that's great news in my book. I figured those would be garbage autos in nearly every case.

kyle1707 · 02-23-2018, 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by travuw

If Pilots are that rare, that's great news in my book. I figured those would be garbage autos in nearly every case.

hope so.. but i have seen tough autos of lower name people that dont sell well

But there are some crazy heritage builders....

Carrbeaz · 02-23-2018, 05:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kyle1707

i agree... Heck series 1 hobby and jumbos are back in right around cost at my dist...

Heritage will never go to cost... But with this massive increase... maybe 80-85

1 auto a case is awful... hopefully 2

action at 9 per case is a good thing.. help with value?

i have always said 6 per case should be max... value has been bad of late imo

Yeah but like brent said.. most of the sellers and buyers from last year won't pay attention that they are harder to get and will gut prices early on to get sales.

brentandbecca · 02-23-2018, 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kyle1707

With Brents number of 40% increase

There are 100's and 100's of cases sitting out the first week of release...

So Brent is it a jump from 2500 cases to 3500?

Truthfully i dont remember how many they make...

With 40% increase holy crap will there be bare cases

All indications are 4500 hobby cases I believe.

phil · 02-23-2018, 05:29 PM

Looks like about 3200 Hobby cases last year, so 4500 2018. That seems low, but if true expect the price to hold up pretty well despite poor breaks.

HeritageKing · 02-23-2018, 05:34 PM

Topps gains my respect more every year. They know how to hustle.

1 auto a case...LOL

prospects · 02-23-2018, 05:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

I hope Layton knows about the SP and SSP and how to read the codes. There could be four figure cards tossed in the trash if they aren't looking.

could u give me an example of what non auto non numbered card in this product would go for four figures

kyle1707 · 02-23-2018, 05:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brentandbecca

All indications are 4500 hobby cases I believe.

Holy Crap........

brentandbecca · 02-23-2018, 05:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by phil

Looks like about 3200 Hobby cases last year, so 4500 2018. That seems low, but if true expect the price to hold up pretty well despite poor breaks.

3200 x 40% increases equals 4480
and all odds indicate around 4500 cases

not low in heritage terms, but I don't ever see TH dropping below $1000, or even $1200...but I still don't see how it ever reaches last year even 2-3 months down the road when dry even if Ohtani is doing well, but that doe snot mena it won't go up down the road

the odds in TH have always been long but now they really are
I used to make 11 chrome sets from 32-35 cases back when #d/year, but now that /999 and so tough, in 50 cases I make 3
and it's not like they sell much more than past outside of the rc now
but that's the way it goes

---------------------
this year will be tough for breakers, especially new ones, I said it since last year
always is after a good year
production increases, prices increases, breakers increase
and that is exactly what is happening
Series 1 will end up being my worst S1 since 2008, stuff was just tough and singles of sp, manu, etc are just dumped nowadays and have little demand like the past

very curious to see how much Chrome sells for and then see how much production it has

brentandbecca · 02-23-2018, 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by prospects

could u give me an example of what non auto non numbered card in this product would go for four figures

the throwback ssp
period

prospects · 02-23-2018, 05:43 PM

it is disgusting that I will be opening a box and might not even get a numbered card.

prospects · 02-23-2018, 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brentandbecca

the throwback ssp
period

and I am assuming those are not announced?

brentandbecca · 02-23-2018, 05:48 PM

here are most of the odds, but then I must get back to work, haha

throwback 1:6573
blue auto 1:154
red auto 1:1003
dual auto 1:5045
triple auto 1:50906
pilot auto 1:3464
RJ buyback auto 1:244512
auto relic 1:11986
1969 mint nickel 1:4480
1969 stamp 1:3524

black border 1:52 (hobby exclusive, limited to 50)
flip stock 1:512 (hobby exclusive limited to 5)
magenta back 1:691 (hobby & retail, limited to 10)

action 1:35
color swap 1:205
chrome 1:35
black chrome 1:501 (these used to be 1 per case)
chrome gold 1:2557
chrome super 1:34931
mini 1:262

02-23-2018, 05:16 PM	#1882
ThoseBackPages Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Long Island Posts: 90,137 ThoseBackPages	i now figured out why cases are 1400+ Asian High Roller Market if they can rip Flawless/NT/Exquisite by the pallet, then Heritage cases at 1400 are like a drop in the bucket __________________ Pumpers Paradise #YouCryIBuy Four things that we cannot change each others minds about: Politics, Religion, Third Party Grading, and 2021 Bowman's Best Rookie Cards

02-23-2018, 05:34 PM	#1893
HeritageKing Member Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 5,627	Topps gains my respect more every year. They know how to hustle. 1 auto a case...LOL __________________ #2 Topps Heritage Autograph Collector

02-23-2018, 05:48 PM	#1900
brentandbecca Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 5,441 brentandbecca	here are most of the odds, but then I must get back to work, haha throwback 1:6573 blue auto 1:154 red auto 1:1003 dual auto 1:5045 triple auto 1:50906 pilot auto 1:3464 RJ buyback auto 1:244512 auto relic 1:11986 1969 mint nickel 1:4480 1969 stamp 1:3524 black border 1:52 (hobby exclusive, limited to 50) flip stock 1:512 (hobby exclusive limited to 5) magenta back 1:691 (hobby & retail, limited to 10) action 1:35 color swap 1:205 chrome 1:35 black chrome 1:501 (these used to be 1 per case) chrome gold 1:2557 chrome super 1:34931 mini 1:262 __________________ Brent Twitter: @brentandbecca eBay: brentandbecca

02-23-2018, 05:25 PM	#1888
travuw Member Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 173	If Pilots are that rare, that's great news in my book. I figured those would be garbage autos in nearly every case.

02-23-2018, 05:29 PM	#1892
phil Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 8,672	Looks like about 3200 Hobby cases last year, so 4500 2018. That seems low, but if true expect the price to hold up pretty well despite poor breaks.

02-23-2018, 05:43 PM	#1898
prospects Banned Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 4,059	it is disgusting that I will be opening a box and might not even get a numbered card.