2018 Topps Baseball Series 1 print run - humongous?

[wilsonsingles]

With about 3 gold parallels per hobby box and 1 per retail blaster box, is the print run for 2018 Topps Series 1 humongous?

[66_Fiat]

Well, you also need to account for retail fat packs, rack packs, hanger boxes, retail boxes, and jumbo hobby boxes.

If someone has the odds for all of these, then a rough estimate can be made.

[hairysasquatch]

The Lord Humungous from The Road Warrior determined the print run.

Don't ask, just walk away, and he'll spare your life. Just walk away.

[wilsonsingles]

Originally Posted by 66_Fiat

Well, you also need to account for retail fat packs, rack packs, hanger boxes, retail boxes, and jumbo hobby boxes.

If someone has the odds for all of these, then a rough estimate can be made.

Evening knowing the odds for these won't tell us as we don't know the ratio between all the different types.
I think we just have to roughly compare the number of golds per hobby box this year compared to last year.
Does anyone remember how many golds there were per hobby box last year?

Also, looks like 3 golds per jumbo box, which is very low.

Just seems that with only three golds per box they seriously cranked the presses.

[DegaBama]

If I'm not mistaken, it use to be that every hobby jumbo pack had a parallel of some sort. I remember getting 7-8 Golds in a box. So 3, that means they may have doubled the printing on it... wow.

[base set]

That would only mean for sure that they have doubled the production of Jumbo packs and might also indicate a higher popularity for Jumbo over Hobby than years past. When there was one Gold in every Jumbo pack, was it even listed in the odds? Are the jumbo odds for a Gold now 1:2 ?

I doubt they have straight doubled retail though it is probably way up too. But that's a good thing.

[ochawkeye14]

The In the Name Relics are probably easiest for us to compare since we pretty much know exactly how many of those there are and they were Hobby & Jumbo only (no retail).

2017 In the Name Relic checklist contained 40 names containing 279 characters in those players' last names. Odds on hitting an In the Name Relic in a 2017 Hobby pack were 1:7,756

2018 In the Name Relic checklist contains 42 names containing 275 characters in those players' last names. Odds on hitting an In the Name Relic in a 2018 Hobby pack are 1:15,392

2018 Jumbo odds are 1:2,274
Does anyone know what the odds were on 2017 Topps Jumbo packs?

Certainly a lot of signs pointing to twice as many Hobby & Jumbo packs being produced this year vs. last assuming 2017 Jumbo odds are roughly 1:1100.

[timelovesahero]

I can't remember a bump in production quite like this. it's like getting a large fountain drink and filling it all the way to the top with ice...dilution.

Even the trout harper bump didn't do this...(correct me if I'm wrong, you know you want to)

[wilsonsingles]

Look forward to hobby and jumbo cases for
$480 a piece, probably less on the jumbo.

[Ewing8888]

It does seem like Topps had a noticeable increase in production just based on ebay listings. i really hope its not the late 80's again for them. Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it.

[Uwfootball1]

Originally Posted by Ewing8888

It does seem like Topps had a noticeable increase in production just based on ebay listings. i really hope its not the late 80's again for them. Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it.

Topps cant even learn how to do decent customer service.

[CharlieHustle]

Originally Posted by timelovesahero

I can't remember a bump in production quite like this. it's like getting a large fountain drink and filling it all the way to the top with ice...dilution.

Even the trout harper bump didn't do this...(correct me if I'm wrong, you know you want to)

2012 S1 was a huge bump over 2011 and that wasn't even factoring in Harper/Darvish/Cespedes yet. Don't recall if it was double, but I do remember it being in the 40-60% range. Didn't help that Topps was doing Gold everything that year and all the inserts looked like they were designed by Press Pass.

[fenwaykid]

The three jumbo cases I opened were horrific. Not surprised to hear that print runs were through the roof.

[phil]

Originally Posted by wilsonsingles

Look forward to hobby and jumbo cases for
$480 a piece, probably less on the jumbo.

Probably won't drop quite that low as long as silver packs are included. w/o them yes it's headed there or lower.

[13goyankees13]

2017 had 1:15 odds for gold parallels in both retail and hobby and 2018 has 1:18 for both. If jumbo follows the same pattern it indicates a print run growth of 20%. Anyone have jumbo odds of both years?

[TheFreeShipper]

Wish I could sell a random gold for the value Topps places on them.

[ochawkeye14]

Originally Posted by 13goyankees13

2017 had 1:15 odds for gold parallels in both retail and hobby and 2018 has 1:18 for both. If jumbo follows the same pattern it indicates a print run growth of 20%. Anyone have jumbo odds of both years?

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...&postcount=661

Base Gold are 1:4 in Jumbo in 2018.

[DBROB]

I would be really interested to get an estimated print run. I have seen a massive jump in the PSA and BGS POP report. That is a sign that print run has gone up. I realize quality control gets better too and grading is more popular nowadays but still... I might just do this math and try and get a ballpark estimate.

[go_steelers07]

Originally Posted by DBROB

I would be really interested to get an estimated print run. I have seen a massive jump in the PSA and BGS POP report. That is a sign that print run has gone up. I realize quality control gets better too and grading is more popular nowadays but still... I might just do this math and try and get a ballpark estimate.

nv.............

[DBROB]

I am just doing quick math here but if you take the amount of gold cards out there from series 1 it is 706,300. (2018 times 350). In most cases gold is 1 in 144 cards. 706,300 times 144 divided by (350 cards in set) is 290,592 then minus 2018 gold sets so like 288k. Is this math flawed? I am sure its not perfect but it has to be in the ballpark. close to 300k PR of each card floating around. This does not even factor in the huge amount of factory boxes with no golds out there. (roughly 8000 walmarts/targets in USA) If my math can be improved I want to know about it. I think this is an important question to ask as a collector. I think that although the hobby is exciting for other reasons and topps is fairly affordable we still deserve to know this type of information when we are buying something because value is directly correlated to how rare it is. I won't be buying any PSA 10 topps base anytime soon that is for sure.

[ThoseBackPages]

i would hope so!

no need for it NOT to be!

[3124508 on COMC]

Originally Posted by DBROB

I am just doing quick math here but if you take the amount of gold cards out there from series 1 it is 706,300. (2018 times 350). In most cases gold is 1 in 144 cards. 706,300 times 144 divided by (350 cards in set) is 290,592 then minus 2018 gold sets so like 288k. Is this math flawed? I am sure its not perfect but it has to be in the ballpark. close to 300k PR of each card floating around. This does not even factor in the huge amount of factory boxes with no golds out there. If my math can be improved I want to know about it. I think this is an important question to ask as a collector. I think that although the hobby is exciting for other reasons and topps is fairly affordable we still deserve to know this type of information when we are buying something because value is directly correlated to how rare it is. I won't be buying any PSA 10 topps base anytime soon that is for sure.

For the modern era, this realistically went out the window about a decade ago.

[base set]

Originally Posted by DBROB

I am just doing quick math here but if you take the amount of gold cards out there from series 1 it is 706,300. (2018 times 350). In most cases gold is 1 in 144 cards. 706,300 times 144 divided by (350 cards in set) is 290,592 then minus 2018 gold sets so like 288k. Is this math flawed? I am sure its not perfect but it has to be in the ballpark. close to 300k PR of each card floating around. This does not even factor in the huge amount of factory boxes with no golds out there. (roughly 8000 walmarts/targets in USA) If my math can be improved I want to know about it. I think this is an important question to ask as a collector. I think that although the hobby is exciting for other reasons and topps is fairly affordable we still deserve to know this type of information when we are buying something because value is directly correlated to how rare it is. I won't be buying any PSA 10 topps base anytime soon that is for sure.

you can collect money, or you can collect baseball cards.

[1stBowman]

Originally Posted by hairysasquatch

The Lord Humungous from The Road Warrior determined the print run.

Don't ask, just walk away, and he'll spare your life. Just walk away.

Lol. That just brought back some memories. The Australian made movie "Mad Max" ( renamed "The Road Warrior" for US cinemas by a politically correct US Film Classification Board, or whatever they called themselves) sure had some interesting characters...

"You disobey me...you puppy".

Thanks for a long dormant memory. Australian movie making at its finest( the third film was rubbish, though )

[Topcat79]

Originally Posted by 1stBowman

Lol. That just brought back some memories. The Australian made movie "Mad Max" ( renamed "The Road Warrior" for US cinemas by a politically correct US Film Classification Board, or whatever they called themselves) sure had some interesting characters...

"You disobey me...you puppy".

Thanks for a long dormant memory. Australian movie making at its finest( the third film was rubbish, though )

Master Blaster run Barter Town?