Can Starlin Castro reach 3000 hits?

deemsterz33 · 02-27-2017, 12:01 AM

Assuming he stays healthy he could have close to 1800 hits at age 30 (averagig 150-160 hits a year). Definitely not a flashy hitter, but could be interesting to see if he could make a run at 3000.

preakness · 02-27-2017, 12:16 AM

He might not reach 2000

ThoseBackPages · 02-27-2017, 12:18 AM

Yes, he can

rman112 · 02-27-2017, 12:24 AM

At only 26, he's going the wrong way not only as a hitter, but physically as well.

kdailey4315 · 02-27-2017, 12:26 AM

It's "possible" but it won't happen. He's slightly ahead of Gwynn for the first full 6 seasons. He'd have to keep his 162 game average the same for 12 more years to get to 3000. His defense is sub par and steadily declining. I can't see an AL team moving him to DH to hit singles.

deemsterz33 · 02-27-2017, 12:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kdailey4315

It's "possible" but it won't happen. He's slightly ahead of Gwynn for the first full 6 seasons. He'd have to keep his 162 game average the same for 12 more years to get to 3000. His defense is sub par and steadily declining. I can't see an AL team moving him to DH to hit singles.

He did hit 21 HRs last year

kdailey4315 · 02-27-2017, 12:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by deemsterz33

He did hit 21 HRs last year

21 HR 70 RBI and a 270 AVE with a 300 OBP in what is a prime year. Let's be honest here. Let's pretend he keeps this production up for 3-4 more prime years. His options will be limited after that. He's almost to the top of the bell curve. He's not going to stay on the top of the bell for the next decade.

deemsterz33 · 02-27-2017, 12:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kdailey4315

21 HR 70 RBI and a 270 AVE with a 300 OBP in what is a prime year. Let's be honest here. Let's pretend he keeps this production up for 3-4 more prime years. His options will be limited after that. He's almost to the top of the bell curve. He's not going to stay on the top of the bell for the next decade.

Good points

Skipscards · 02-27-2017, 12:39 AM

He has a 16% chance of reaching 3,000 with a projected total 2,363.

deemsterz33 · 02-27-2017, 12:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skipscards

He has a 16% chance of reaching 3,000 with a projected total 2,363.

Interesting - Where would one find info like that?

Skipscards · 02-27-2017, 12:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by deemsterz33

Interesting - Where would one find info like that?

I have a spreadsheet I use that mimics Bill James' Favorite Toy.

Ferg1945 · 02-27-2017, 12:50 AM

If he averages 156 hits for the next 12 years... he will be 38 and finish with 3,019.

Unfortunately... he won't have job after the age of 33. Leaving him about 700 shy of 3,000

Ottomatic · 02-27-2017, 12:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by deemsterz33

He did hit 21 HRs last year

As did every other player. (kidding, but kind of not)

deemsterz33 · 02-27-2017, 01:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skipscards

I have a spreadsheet I use that mimics Bill James' Favorite Toy.

Cool info, thanks

Psufan80 · 02-27-2017, 08:54 AM

I remember when the talk was about Carl Crawford reaching 3000 hits

fulltritty · 02-27-2017, 09:00 AM

He may but I doubt it will be with the Yankees.

awz50 · 02-27-2017, 09:20 AM

Starlin Castro....Hall of fame.....lol

Skipscards · 02-27-2017, 09:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by deemsterz33

Cool info, thanks

You're welcome.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Psufan80

I remember when the talk was about Carl Crawford reaching 3000 hits

Yeah, and Omar and Damon. That's what's so great about the 3,000 hit club, it ain't easy.

TarjetasBéisbol · 02-27-2017, 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Psufan80

I remember when the talk was about Carl Crawford reaching 3000 hits

Exactly! No reason to start talking about a player getting to 3k unless they are at least at 2k and still going strong.

Peties Army · 02-27-2017, 09:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ottomatic

As did every other player. (kidding, but kind of not)

100% correct

Archangel1775 · 02-27-2017, 01:09 PM

Harold Baines, Carl Crawford, Juan Pierre, Omar Vizquel, Johnny Damon, Hanley Ramirez...many of times, they just fall off a cliff and never return to their hitting glory. There is a reason the club is so exclusive.

To be fair, he is young but will need to play into his late 30's or early 40's and still produce for a team.

Peties Army · 02-27-2017, 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

Harold Baines, Carl Crawford, Juan Pierre, Omar Vizquel, Johnny Damon, Hanley Ramirez...many of times, they just fall off a cliff and never return to their hitting glory. There is a reason the club is so exclusive.

To be fair, he is young but will need to play into his late 30's or early 40's and still produce for a team.

Omar Vizquel had hitting glory?

Archangel1775 · 02-27-2017, 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peties Army

Omar Vizquel had hitting glory?

According to this year's Transcendent Auto card, yes.

Ashieft · 02-27-2017, 04:46 PM

Textbook definition of a stat compiler.

CoolG · 06-10-2017, 09:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ashieft

Textbook definition of a stat compiler.

He's putting up some nice textbook stats in 2017

11/40/.325
2nd in hits

02-27-2017, 12:01 AM	#1
deemsterz33 Member Join Date: Mar 2016 Location: Portland, OR Posts: 5,849 phunkified	Can Starlin Castro reach 3000 hits? Assuming he stays healthy he could have close to 1800 hits at age 30 (averagig 150-160 hits a year). Definitely not a flashy hitter, but could be interesting to see if he could make a run at 3000.

02-27-2017, 12:18 AM	#3
ThoseBackPages Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Long Island Posts: 88,860 ThoseBackPages	Yes, he can __________________ Pumpers Paradise #YouCryIBuy Four things that we cannot change each others minds about: Politics, Religion, Third Party Grading, and 2021 Bowman's Best Rookie Cards

02-27-2017, 12:26 AM	#5
kdailey4315 Member Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 423 KD4315	It's "possible" but it won't happen. He's slightly ahead of Gwynn for the first full 6 seasons. He'd have to keep his 162 game average the same for 12 more years to get to 3000. His defense is sub par and steadily declining. I can't see an AL team moving him to DH to hit singles. __________________ Collecting all on card autos of Notre Dame players in ND uniform.

02-27-2017, 12:39 AM	#9
Skipscards Member Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: In Tribute To The Great Ryno Posts: 29,807 jlankf2 jmp4	He has a 16% chance of reaching 3,000 with a projected total 2,363. __________________ Go Royals!! #RoyalsIn2015 <---It Happened!! #TEAMZinck Sometimes it is astounding that we are able to persist in a world so full of morons.

02-27-2017, 09:20 AM	#17
awz50 Member Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: New Hampshire>>>Arizona>>>>Florida Posts: 32,977 awz50	Starlin Castro....Hall of fame.....lol __________________ Collecting Baseball Hof Autographs 248/351 Blowouts Official Red Sox face of the franchise Eduardo Rodriguez Super Collector

02-27-2017, 12:16 AM	#2
preakness Member Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: In Johnny Ryno's soul Posts: 21,077	He might not reach 2000

02-27-2017, 12:24 AM	#4
rman112 Banned Join Date: Oct 2014 Location: Freedom is Free Again Posts: 40,946	At only 26, he's going the wrong way not only as a hitter, but physically as well.

02-27-2017, 12:50 AM	#12
Ferg1945 Member Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Midwest Posts: 14,719	If he averages 156 hits for the next 12 years... he will be 38 and finish with 3,019. Unfortunately... he won't have job after the age of 33. Leaving him about 700 shy of 3,000

02-27-2017, 08:54 AM	#15
Psufan80 Banned Join Date: Feb 2016 Posts: 232	I remember when the talk was about Carl Crawford reaching 3000 hits

02-27-2017, 09:00 AM	#16
fulltritty Member Join Date: Jun 2013 Location: King George, VA Posts: 75,577	He may but I doubt it will be with the Yankees.

02-27-2017, 01:09 PM	#21
Archangel1775 Member Join Date: Mar 2012 Location: Cali baby! Posts: 21,555	Harold Baines, Carl Crawford, Juan Pierre, Omar Vizquel, Johnny Damon, Hanley Ramirez...many of times, they just fall off a cliff and never return to their hitting glory. There is a reason the club is so exclusive. To be fair, he is young but will need to play into his late 30's or early 40's and still produce for a team. __________________ *There are the intangibles that set someone apart from the pack.So the blur isn't your inability to see his greatness, it's merely the inability to measure it.*

02-27-2017, 04:46 PM	#24
Ashieft Member Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 440 ashief_mt	Textbook definition of a stat compiler.