2016 bowman pricing predictions

[jewcer2k5]

Originally Posted by rutgersjpm

Anyone who is frustrated that the 50 caser didn't go off should definitely acknowledge this. Much like how you're factoring your costs into that $70 box price, my guess is BO was factoring in theirs. The 50 caser is a solid two-three weeks of work for multiple people.

That 50 caser NOT going off is MUCH better for the secondary market. Not having $40,000 - $50,000 tied up in cards they won't see for weeks is a GOOD thing.

[HadWayTooMuch]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

I will break this down , and this will be my last responce.

So here we go....

It is very simple. If you price a box at higher then what people are willing to pay for it your business will fail! This is simple economics of supply and demand.

If blowout who reaches an international audience is selling at $68, small market economics tell us two things; a you will have to be cheaper or B you will have to have an insane demand.

Insane demand is not sports cards; insane demand is a new underproduced item with a known high demand; in card terms something that a manufacture knows they will be short printing, think first batch of I phones or first Wii.

You closing is the result of one of two things, a. You underestimated your customers ability of finding a better deal B. You overrated the value of service you were providing them to pay the higher prices C. You overrated your customer opinion of buying locally.

Sorry to put it to you that way....best of luck in your card ventures.

Nothing personal, but I'm kind of glad you are out of this. You never answer the questions asked and you make assumptions that just aren't true.

And if you think the average LCS is in direct competition with BO, you are crazy. Only when it comes to case buyers, which in my situation, I had very few of.

Who wants to wait 3 days for a box to save $5? Not me!

[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by lisu

LCS's don't charge what Blowout charges. There's a successful card chain in the Bay Area where the overhead is quite high, and they seem to be doing just fine. Obviously, I don't expect to pay Blowout prices if I can just walk in and buy the product, and I will pay a premium to pick it up there and chit chat with fellow collectors. I expect that their first 2016 Bowman boxes will be in the $60 - $65 range, and I expect that they will sell out. Their first jumbo boxes will probably be in the $125 - $135 range, and again, I expect that they will sell out. Not everyone wants to buy online and have wax shipped to them. There are times that they are actually cheaper than Blowout because Blowout's prices fluctuate so much.

We agree 100%, I do about 70% of my buying from my LCS's however both my LCS's are always cheaper then blowout and much more friendly.

[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by HadWayTooMuch

Nothing personal, but I'm kind of glad you are out of this. You never answer the questions asked and you make assumptions that just aren't true.

And if you think the average LCS is in direct competition with BO, you are crazy. Only when it comes to case buyers, which in my situation, I had very few of.

Who wants to wait 3 days for a box to save $5? Not me!

A wise man once said, "Only fools argue facts". Sadly most fools aren't good business owners.

[Cubfan86]

I own a card shop. Luckily I am also a Pizza Shop as well.
I will be charging $70 hobby and $135 Jumbo which includes tax.
I make very little money on wax anymore and it is only getting worse.
If someone wants to save $2-3 buying online and not supporting their LCS I think that is the kiss of death.
Blowout undercuts me all the time, and then they are charging $165 a box for Jumbo? I wonder how many customers I will see for this product that did not buy Gypsy,Museum,Heritage etc...
Thank god for Pizza

[Tim]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

A wise man once said, "Only fools argue facts". Sadly most fools aren't good business owners.

You never answered hadwaytoomuch's repeated question as to what you think an LCS should charge for a $59 box. Anyone who thinks $70 is too much for an LCS to charge for a $59 box that's hot is either:

a.) the real fool; or
b.) on the cutting edge of a realization that all LCS's will be defunct in the next year

(And hey - I am not being sarcastic about that second choice - we may be nearing that point) IF a 20% markup on a hot item is not generating sales and/or this poster's buying habits reflect the majority of collectors, I actually think that, sadly, option b. above is where we are headed. Really hope it's option a. though, no offense.

[valleyofsun]

Originally Posted by Cubfan86

I own a card shop. Luckily I am also a Pizza Shop as well.
I will be charging $70 hobby and $135 Jumbo which includes tax.
I make very little money on wax anymore and it is only getting worse.
If someone wants to save $2-3 buying online and not supporting their LCS I think that is the kiss of death.
Blowout undercuts me all the time, and then they are charging $165 a box for Jumbo? I wonder how many customers I will see for this product that did not buy Gypsy,Museum,Heritage etc...
Thank god for Pizza

Where is your shop located?

[jewcer2k5]

Originally Posted by Tim

You never answered hadwaytoomuch's repeated question as to what you think an LCS should charge for a $59 box. Anyone who thinks $70 is too much for an LCS to charge for a $59 box that's hot is either:

a.) the real fool; or
b.) on the cutting edge of a realization that all LCS's will be defunct in the next year

(And hey - I am not being sarcastic about that second choice - we may be nearing that point) IF a 20% markup on a hot item is not generating sales and/or this poster's buying habits reflect the majority of collectors, I actually think that, sadly, option b. above is where we are headed. Really hope it's option a. though, no offense.

Sealed wax at a LCS is gonna be tough going forward there is no question about it, but wax by the pack is always gonna be a winner. Especially on the $2-$5 packs. LCS' are successful by not just being a sports card based / transaction based business. You have to be special and make people WANT to go there. Adding value is KEY and many old dogs don't want to deal with learning the new tricks.

[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by Tim

You never answered hadwaytoomuch's repeated question as to what you think an LCS should charge for a $59 box. Anyone who thinks $70 is too much for an LCS to charge for a $59 box that's hot is either:

a.) the real fool; or
b.) on the cutting edge of a realization that all LCS's will be defunct in the next year

(And hey - I am not being sarcastic about that second choice - we may be nearing that point) IF a 20% markup on a hot item is not generating sales and/or this poster's buying habits reflect the majority of collectors, I actually think that, sadly, option b. above is where we are headed. Really hope it's option a. though, no offense.

There is no point to answering that question. Because when me a JOE SCHMOE is in at $56.25 the LCS should be in at no more then that. Again, for the 3rd time if your an LCS in at $59, you were in late and thats on you, not the customer.

So assuming our boy did his job, he should be in around the $56 and be able to sell for $65. about a 14% markup. If he waited and bulked, he didnt do his one job and should not be punishing his customers for that, thats a bad LCS, IMO.

Heres a fun question for you, what do you think the operating ratio is of major transportation companies is, including the ones who get your cards where they need to be? Its about 90-92% meaning for every $100 these companies invest they make $8-10. Cards similar to transportation is a volume business, the more volume you move the better.

Anyone thinking because they are an LCS they are entitled to customers extra dollars is crazy. Both my LCS's have earned my business with good prices and a friendly atmosphere.


Blowout is the like the who's line is it anyway of the card world today. Where facts don't matter and everyone is making crap up.

[Cubfan86]

Originally Posted by valleyofsun

Where is your shop located?

Chatham,IL

[Cubfan86]

Nevermind. Not worth it

[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by Cubfan86

Are you stupid?? For the 3rd time, he is saying $59 is after fees etc....
I am sure there are people in at $52, $56, $59, WHO CARES. $70 is a good price period.

Why are you in at $59 as an LCS when regular customers are getting in at $56. That is a very valid question, that you my friend cant seem to answer.

$70 is good?

Blowout, Daves, Steel City, and about 15 sellers on ebay say differently. It's ok your shop your prices, but don't name call when someone doesn't agree with you. You're not 12.

[HadWayTooMuch]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

Why are you in at $59 as an LCS when regular customers are getting in at $56. That is a very valid question, that you my friend cant seem to answer.

$70 is good?

Blowout, Daves, Steel City, and about 15 sellers on ebay say differently. It's ok your shop your prices, but don't name call when someone doesn't agree with you. You're not 12.

Before I leave for work, I will answer this ONE MORE TIME.

Assuming the price is $57 (as I don't know the cost of 2016 Bowman), adding the 3% credit card fee puts it around $59. That is where $59 comes from.

There are plenty of ways to buy these products at wholesale price. I'm sure $56.25 is that wholesale price give or take a dollar. He is obviously hooked up with someone offering that price which is great for him.

So I'll ask again. What is his opinion of BO who is charging $68 and probably paid around $50 a box?

[Dbacksbaseball]

The Same thing I said to your fellow LCS owner above. Blowout's store front, their prices. Discretion on price is decided by your customer. You can't tell me you wouldn't still be open if you were offering bomb prices to your customers...you would be.

And again, I'm not hating on you man. There is a 3rd LCS in my area I don't frequent, the people are nice enough, heck they even follow my ebay account an purchase singles from me for customers, but they run there business in a mall, have knick knack sports stuff and have the overhead of a mall store and there generally priced right in line with BO. I imagine that was the situation you were in. Something of that sort if I remember reading right.

That said no hard feelings, if we end up at a Phillies game this year on the same day and I find out about it, Ill buy you a beer, you have my word on that.

[jewcer2k5]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

The Same thing I said to your fellow LCS owner above. Blowout's store front, their prices. Discretion on price is decided by your customer. You can't tell me you wouldn't still be open if you were offering bomb prices to your customers...you would be.

And again, I'm not hating on you man. There is a 3rd LCS in my area I don't frequent, the people are nice enough, heck they even follow my ebay account an purchase singles from me for customers, but they run there business in a mall, have knick knack sports stuff and have the overhead of a mall store and there generally priced right in line with BO. I imagine that was the situation you were in. Something of that sort if I remember reading right.

That said no hard feelings, if we end up at a Phillies game this year on the same day and I find out about it, Ill buy you a beer, you have my word on that.

You 2 may be the only 2 there!

#LGM

[cmccart82003]

Originally Posted by HadWayTooMuch

This is about as brilliant a response as possible.

As an LCS owner, you are not allowed to make a profit.

People will pay Blowout $165 for a jumbo box and not think twice about it even though they paid factory cost on it, but will complain about an LCS charging $150 who likely paid a percentage over cost unless it's a big store.

I'll go at it from this angle. I used to run a shop. I didn't own it but I completely ran all aspects of retail, wholesale/distributors, direct accounts and ebay sales etc. The shop was also very heavy in gold and silver bullion, coins, trains and antiques. The owner rain the bullion investment side and I ran everything sports related.

I won't get into specifics because we also wholesaled to other dealers (and had for many many years) long after it was "legal" within Panini/UD rules for dealers to do so. We made almost nothing on wax. It was so bad the last year that I did over $220k on ebay, virtually all in singles from breaking our own wax and making money that way. It was a very rural area and although the shop was one of the longest standing brick and mortar shops in the country...we were floundering.

Our prices were probably the best anywhere and we still had a hard time selling wax in the store. I have since relocated back to CT with my family and the dealers here are absolutely terrible. The prices they charge for product are (not kidding) probably 25% higher or MORE than what we charged. One of the main shops in CT that used to have multiple locations sells bowman hobby products for 79.99. They sell jumbos for $180 or more...Often more. Most products that are only worth 80-90 retail they sell for 129. It is freaking ridiculous.

It is virtually impossible to make a profit breaking boxes at that margin, even if you have a "great" break you often come out losing money. They want both ends and the middle....There is nothing left for the consumer. Having said all of that, they don't have bullion or coins or antiques etc to fall back on. They rely on wax or selling other items like cups, helmets, jerseys, license plate holders etc on ebay. If all dealers charged what a product was actually worth and attempted to keep their doors open by putting the collector first they would shut down daily...

Which brings me to the real culprit besides overproduction and really really crappy products being released regularly. The real problem is margin. The price that dealers are paying direct (not even distributor pricing which averages 5-10 more per box for the dealer) is generally what the product is worth. Companies are charging wayyyyyyyy too much for most products. There are a few products (see bowman jumbo, flawless, cup, nt) where dealers have a decent profit margin built in but most of the time, factory cost pushes dealers to the brink of closing their doors. Dealers SHOULD be able to make a 25% profit on most items by paying less direct imo.

The greed of the card companies supercedes the greed of the shop owners. And there just isn't enough margin left for most shops to do sustainable business from their storefront. Then you throw in ridiculous rules from panini and UD that limit a dealers ability to move a product online or to another dealer before it is completely underwater and you have a perfect storm. At least Panini had the foresight to limit their requirements on pricing and selling to 30 days.

UD, the staggering drunken, nearly bankrupt, on their last legs company that owes millions in lawsuits they have lost over and over again and has lost nearly all licensing and credibility in the marketplace had the nerve to say "90 days". UD still wants to be treated like it's 1989, or 1999, or 2009.....like they still matter. They are the first company to ax a dealer for minor "rule" violations like they overbearing parents and the last company that could afford to lose any more business. Lots of bad memories....but hey, I busted a ton of wax in process

[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by jewcer2k5

You 2 may be the only 2 there!

#LGM

I hate you and your pitching staff! Were hanging in there though.

[jewcer2k5]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

I hate you and your pitching staff! Were hanging in there though.

Hating me because of it seems silly.

FWIW I hate that Lagares robbed Franco of that 3 run bomb. We had that game in hand, would've been very helpful to my fantasy team that week to let that go.

[smalltown]

Originally Posted by jewcer2k5

Adding value is KEY and many old dogs don't want to deal with learning the new tricks.

100% - Got to evolve.

[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by jewcer2k5

Hating me because of it seems silly.

FWIW I hate that Lagares robbed Franco of that 3 run bomb. We had that game in hand, would've been very helpful to my fantasy team that week to let that go.

Very silly but rational in a Bowman thread seems to not be the advised route of action.

You guys have a nice team, enjoy it because I'll keep your sly thoughts in my back pocket and remember them for when we are WFChamps again in 2020.

[arkeeper]

Buy local. Support your LCS. (unless they're jerks/delusional)

[VanZile17]

Dbacks, using your 14% markup, the $9.00/box profit, how many boxes would a business need to sell just to cover overhead? If they sold 100 boxes a week (which they could not, even if they had the customer base, as they would simply not be able to keep that much product in stock at the same cost, Topps limits most shops to somewhere between 5-10 cases at the direct cost) they would make a staggering $900 profit off of those boxes. For rent, electric, internet, insurance, employees, fixtures, store supplies, and salary. Retail keystone is at least a 50% markup/margin. The math for these guys just doesn't add up.

[imbluestreak23]

There are a lot easier ways to make money in America than serving as a middle man between Topps/Panini and the collector.

To say that an LCS is not in direct competition with BO is ludicrous. There is a reason why in 2016 you may have to drive 3-4 hours to find a baseball card shop.

If I knew that my livelihood depended on pricing a brand new, hot box of Bowman Chrome at $70 just so that I could make a $6-$7 margin KNOWING that that $70 is actually above the going rate . That's just not a sustainable business model and I'd be sweating every single night that I lay my head down to rest.

[bcubs]

Originally Posted by cmccart82003

I'll go at it from this angle. I used to run a shop. I didn't own it but I completely ran all aspects of retail, wholesale/distributors, direct accounts and ebay sales etc. The shop was also very heavy in gold and silver bullion, coins, trains and antiques. The owner rain the bullion investment side and I ran everything sports related.

I won't get into specifics because we also wholesaled to other dealers (and had for many many years) long after it was "legal" within Panini/UD rules for dealers to do so. We made almost nothing on wax. It was so bad the last year that I did over $220k on ebay, virtually all in singles from breaking our own wax and making money that way. It was a very rural area and although the shop was one of the longest standing brick and mortar shops in the country...we were floundering.

Our prices were probably the best anywhere and we still had a hard time selling wax in the store. I have since relocated back to CT with my family and the dealers here are absolutely terrible. The prices they charge for product are (not kidding) probably 25% higher or MORE than what we charged. One of the main shops in CT that used to have multiple locations sells bowman hobby products for 79.99. They sell jumbos for $180 or more...Often more. Most products that are only worth 80-90 retail they sell for 129. It is freaking ridiculous.

It is virtually impossible to make a profit breaking boxes at that margin, even if you have a "great" break you often come out losing money. They want both ends and the middle....There is nothing left for the consumer. Having said all of that, they don't have bullion or coins or antiques etc to fall back on. They rely on wax or selling other items like cups, helmets, jerseys, license plate holders etc on ebay. If all dealers charged what a product was actually worth and attempted to keep their doors open by putting the collector first they would shut down daily...

Which brings me to the real culprit besides overproduction and really really crappy products being released regularly. The real problem is margin. The price that dealers are paying direct (not even distributor pricing which averages 5-10 more per box for the dealer) is generally what the product is worth. Companies are charging wayyyyyyyy too much for most products. There are a few products (see bowman jumbo, flawless, cup, nt) where dealers have a decent profit margin built in but most of the time, factory cost pushes dealers to the brink of closing their doors. Dealers SHOULD be able to make a 25% profit on most items by paying less direct imo.

The greed of the card companies supercedes the greed of the shop owners. And there just isn't enough margin left for most shops to do sustainable business from their storefront. Then you throw in ridiculous rules from panini and UD that limit a dealers ability to move a product online or to another dealer before it is completely underwater and you have a perfect storm. At least Panini had the foresight to limit their requirements on pricing and selling to 30 days.

UD, the staggering drunken, nearly bankrupt, on their last legs company that owes millions in lawsuits they have lost over and over again and has lost nearly all licensing and credibility in the marketplace had the nerve to say "90 days". UD still wants to be treated like it's 1989, or 1999, or 2009.....like they still matter. They are the first company to ax a dealer for minor "rule" violations like they overbearing parents and the last company that could afford to lose any more business. Lots of bad memories....but hey, I busted a ton of wax in process

You are right on. From the word "go" there is no margin left in the prices. We'll never know but I'll bet the licensing fees are to blame for the higher costs. Want to blame someone for the cost of cards and the low margins? Go right to the guys you're buying pictures of and collecting or selling.

[Carrbeaz]

Just here to interrupt the arguments lol

Color from one hobby case and one jumbo