2016 bowman pricing predictions

[peterose4hof]

Originally Posted by jewcer2k5

Do you blame them? If the product tanks at release would you be willing to pay just over their cost or would you say that they are charging too much because the product went down?

You can't expect them to follow the market down but not up, they have to make money also.

I wasn't complaining and I completely understand the dynamics of product pricing as I was a shop-owner myself for about 12 years. I was just stating a fact that previously it wasn't their practice to raise prices for the first run of product and now it is.

[zacsoccer6]

Originally Posted by HadWayTooMuch

A non direct LCS probably pays around $56-$58 for a box of Bowman. Considering credit card fees (which it seemed everyone used to buy from me) were about 3ish%, what price do you recommend the LCS sell the hobby box for and still stay in business? Blowout is at $68 (plus shipping in lower quantities) and they probably paid around $50-$52 a box or less.

Hey, shop around, buy online, etc. But don't say a price is too high when there's barely any markup on the item.

Agree with this, when I worked at the shop I saw what was paid and what the markup was and it wasn't much at all. He gets people when they buy at pack price but most places do this.

[Dbacksbaseball]

Here we go, with everyone jumping the gun again. Im saying I would not buy at $70. Thats high for me on a one auto product. At $70 for me and the style I use I would not be a buyer. Thats personal opinion, but it is good for LCS's to tap into there customers mindset....

Any LCS is entitled to charge what they want. I do most my LCS shopping with a large LCS who is Topps direct, but worked for a small LCS from 14-18 years old and know its small operating ratio business. The question any LCS needs to ask themselves is do they like slow dimes or fast nickels. In my experience the better hobby shops have the fast nickel mentality. As in I sell these boxes for $8 over my cost and sell 100 of them, or do I make $16 and sell a case of them.....

[zacsoccer6]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

Here we go, with everyone jumping the gun again. Im saying I would not buy at $70. Thats high for me on a one auto product. At $70 for me and the style I use I would not be a buyer. Thats personal opinion, but it is good for LCS's to tap into there customers mindset....

Any LCS is entitled to charge what they want. I do most my LCS shopping with a large LCS who is Topps direct, but worked for a small LCS from 14-18 years old and know its small operating ratio business. The question any LCS needs to ask themselves is do they like slow dimes or fast nickels. In my experience the better hobby shops have the fast nickel mentality. As in I sell these boxes for $8 over my cost and sell 100 of them, or do I make $16 and sell a case of them.....

I wouldn't buy it at that price either, but I was also very surprised when people would buy hobby for 90-110 bucks in 2013 in hopes of getting a puig insert or a correa or buxton auto. There was a good amount of people that walked through that door that didn't know they could go online and buy for less. At 70 bucks would need to hit a top 3 base auto or a top 10 blue or better auto just to make it worth it.

[HadWayTooMuch]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

Here we go, with everyone jumping the gun again. Im saying I would not buy at $70. Thats high for me on a one auto product. At $70 for me and the style I use I would not be a buyer. Thats personal opinion, but it is good for LCS's to tap into there customers mindset....

Any LCS is entitled to charge what they want. I do most my LCS shopping with a large LCS who is Topps direct, but worked for a small LCS from 14-18 years old and know its small operating ratio business. The question any LCS needs to ask themselves is do they like slow dimes or fast nickels. In my experience the better hobby shops have the fast nickel mentality. As in I sell these boxes for $8 over my cost and sell 100 of them, or do I make $16 and sell a case of them.....

First of all, any LCS in this position is not selling 100 boxes. You are buying direct if you have that kind of volume.

Secondly, fast nickels? Yes, literally nickels. If you pay around $57 a box and then consider the 3% or so credit card charges, you are about $59 a box. Exactly how much should you be selling these boxes for? $60? You might was well shut the door...

[rutgersjpm]

Originally Posted by phil

For a shop that buys from distributors cost is $55-59, so $70 would be very fair

I'm only quoting this so that people understand cost of doing business.

If a box sells for $70 is this after or before tax? Lets say you're buying in NJ and this is after tax.

Credit Card fee = 3% = $2.10
Tax = 7% = $4.90

That's $7. So, a shop pays $54-59 for a box and you want them to sell it for $70, but after their IMMEDIATE transaction costs they are only making $4-8. They have an electric bill, rent and, oh yeah, profit.

So, long story short. Pay your LCS (or any small business) in cash

[blackandgold]

Originally Posted by phil

Pitching the day after release so probably some significant variability based on that one game

Maeda vs Jose his next outing. Jose has been less than stellar thus far. He's due to pitch a gem

[HadWayTooMuch]

Originally Posted by rutgersjpm

I'm only quoting this so that people understand cost of doing business.

If a box sells for $70 is this after or before tax? Lets say you're buying in NJ and this is after tax.

Credit Card fee = 3% = $2.10
Tax = 7% = $4.90

That's $7. So, a shop pays $54-59 for a box and you want them to sell it for $70, but after their IMMEDIATE transaction costs they are only making $4-8. They have an electric bill, rent and, oh yeah, profit.

So, long story short. Pay your LCS (or any small business) in cash

And if you only show up for hot products you expect them to sell you just over cost then you are seriously part of the problem.

When I had my shop, those that bought all kinds of things hot and otherwise always got the hot products at good prices. But those that occasionally stopped in because I was cheaper than BO on hot items and who I never saw at any other time didn't get those same prices.

I'm waiting to hear some criticism of BO. Come on. They're $1299 for a case of Jumbo that cost them what, $750? How is the LCS horrible because they markup their items just enough to hopefully pay their bills, but BO gets a pass when they manipulate the market? Seriously, $1299 for a jumbo case?

I ended up giving my supplier back 1 of the 2 cases I have coming in. I pay around $800. He was quite appreciative as he couldn't fill all of his orders and he has taken good care of me for years. But even if I had kept it, nobody would have paid anywhere near $1299 for that case.

But as always, everybody is afraid of criticizing BO when what they do is 10 times worse than an LCS marking up an item 20% to try to make some kind of profit.

[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by HadWayTooMuch

First of all, any LCS in this position is not selling 100 boxes. You are buying direct if you have that kind of volume.

Secondly, fast nickels? Yes, literally nickels. If you pay around $57 a box and then consider the 3% or so credit card charges, you are about $59 a box. Exactly how much should you be selling these boxes for? $60? You might was well shut the door...

Im not going to go back and forth with you or be a jerk. But you had a LCS it didn't work out, it happens. I have two wildly successful LCS's in my area. They are successful selling boxes in quantity, one is direct, one is not. That is there business model, move product, dont get stuck sitting on new product. If your prices are too high people wont come through the door, simple as that, if you create foot traffic you create sales. Alot of it is how you value a $1.

[HadWayTooMuch]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

Im not going to go back and forth with you or be a jerk. But you had a LCS it didn't work out, it happens. I have two wildly successful LCS's in my area. They are successful selling boxes in quantity, one is direct, one is not. That is there business model, move product, dont get stuck sitting on new product. If your prices are too high people wont come through the door, simple as that, if you create foot traffic you create sales. Alot of it is how you value a $1.

How about answering the question. If you paid $59 (after fees) for your boxes, what should you sell them for?

[peterose4hof]

Simply out of curiosity, what's LCS direct price for jumbo boxes?

[rutgersjpm]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

Im not going to go back and forth with you or be a jerk. But you had a LCS it didn't work out, it happens. I have two wildly successful LCS's in my area. They are successful selling boxes in quantity, one is direct, one is not. That is there business model, move product, dont get stuck sitting on new product. If your prices are too high people wont come through the door, simple as that, if you create foot traffic you create sales. Alot of it is how you value a $1.

My thought process is if you aren't packing out a quarter of your order you're screwed. Jumbo packs for $15 and hobby packs for $4 is where the real money is at. If your LCS's have quite a bit of that traffic, than that's the reason why they're doing well. Also, where are you located? My guess is starting a LCS in NJ has got to be the hardest place to start one due to costs.

[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by HadWayTooMuch

How about answering the question. If you paid $59 (after fees) for your boxes, what should you sell them for?

How and why are you paying $59 for Bowman? I Locked in two weeks ago for 56.25 a box and will be picking up in MD at 6 pm.

if your overpaying for product as an lcs I can see why your doors are no longer open. Not a dog, that's a factual statement.

[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by rutgersjpm

My thought process is if you aren't packing out a quarter of your order you're screwed. Jumbo packs for $15 and hobby packs for $4 is where the real money is at. If your LCS's have quite a bit of that traffic, than that's the reason why they're doing well. Also, where are you located? My guess is starting a LCS in NJ has got to be the hardest place to start one due to costs.

I'm not far from him at all. And my main lcs sells wholesale to other lcs' with tax Id #'s. Surprised he's so close to them and didn't make the trip.

But it does get old seeing the same old 'my hobby shop didn't work out, you guys who shop for better prices are evil' mentality.

I buy in bulk the extra $14 you want to charge me a box adds up very quick....and that's why no store carrying customers walked through your doors....again not a dig...but fact.

[HadWayTooMuch]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

How and why are you paying $59 for Bowman? I Locked in two weeks ago for 56.25 a box and will be picking up in MD at 6 pm.

if your overpaying for product as an lcs I can see why your doors are no longer open.

I included the 3% or so credit card fees since at least 75% of my box business was credit card.

I don't know the exact cost I would pay but I figured $57 plus the 3% fee.

So again, with a cost of $59 after fees, what should I sell it for?

And you still haven't acknowledged BO and their $68 a box when we all know they paid around $50 or so per box and don't have the worries the rest of us have.

[rutgersjpm]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

How and why are you paying $59 for Bowman? I Locked in two weeks ago for 56.25 a box and will be picking up in MD at 6 pm.

if your overpaying for product as an lcs I can see why your doors are no longer open. Not a dog, that's a factual statement.

Direct cost is $52.50 a box. Distributors charge at least 5%. $55-59 is pretty standard. Factor in shipping after the overhead.

[Dbacksbaseball]

I don't care what you blowout or anyone are charging!!! If I can shop and find better prices then you are as an LCS you are not doing your job!!!!!

The real question would be, why would I buy at $70 when I can by at 56.25?? There is not point in answering your question. Successful people help themselves if any old Joe schmoe can find boxes at 56.25 , your the 'business professional' who is buying at $59, you failed you bought in late. That's on you not the customer.

It's simple for me and any other knowledgeable consumer. If the price is too high....bye! Economics.

[HadWayTooMuch]

Originally Posted by rutgersjpm

My thought process is if you aren't packing out a quarter of your order you're screwed. Jumbo packs for $15 and hobby packs for $4 is where the real money is at. If your LCS's have quite a bit of that traffic, than that's the reason why they're doing well. Also, where are you located? My guess is starting a LCS in NJ has got to be the hardest place to start one due to costs.

I've mentioned this before but I'll do it again. I did okay at my LCS but working 7 days a week (5 at my "real" job and the other 2 at the LCS) was just too much for me. I was literally a walking corpse after a while. That is the reason I closed down. I could have kept going and it wouldn't have been a financial difficulty as I was having a blast and my main income covered me.

Anyway, the biggest difficulty I had was my inability to bring people into the store at all. There are many people I had talked to on message boards and even here that never made the 15 minute drive to at least check my place out. It was also an expensive area, but a ton of driveby traffic. I had some great customers who I met at my LCS and we're buddies now. Again, no regrets.

But it still frustrates me when I see someone posting saying how the LCS should be working for peanuts and how dare they try to make a profit. And it's worse when the price we're debating about is almost the same as BO who pays a ton less.

I still remember being cheaper than BO on EVERY hot new product but being more expensive on the mediocre ones. I was $250 on Dynasty 2014. I was $99 on 2014 Topps 2 baseball jumbo to name just 2 that come to mind.

But again, not my point. My point is, purchase wherever you want. It's not for me or anyone else to tell someone where to spend your money. But don't criticize an LCS that is working on a horrible 20% markup. I'd like to see the businesses where some of these people work try to survive on a 20% margin.

[rutgersjpm]

Originally Posted by HadWayTooMuch

And you still haven't acknowledged BO and their $68 a box when we all know they paid around $50 or so per box and don't have the worries the rest of us have.

Anyone who is frustrated that the 50 caser didn't go off should definitely acknowledge this. Much like how you're factoring your costs into that $70 box price, my guess is BO was factoring in theirs. The 50 caser is a solid two-three weeks of work for multiple people.

[HadWayTooMuch]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

I don't care what you blowout or anyone are charging!!! If I can shop and find better prices then you are as an LCS you are not doing your job!!!!!

The real question would be, why would I buy at $70 when I can by at 56.25?? There is not point in answering your pointless questions. Successful people help themselves if any old Joe schmoe can find boxes at 56.25 , your the 'business professional' who is buying at $59, you failed you bought in late. That's on you not the customer.

Wait, now you think the LCS should sell at $56.25? I'm just trying to understand what you are saying.

It is not the LCS job to match every price you find all over the country. Don't shop there if the price is too high, but don't be the guy that only shows up their when they can't find those low prices. I don't shop at an LCS. I still deal with a wholesaler. But I don't begrudge the LCS a profit.

[HadWayTooMuch]

Originally Posted by rutgersjpm

Anyone who is frustrated that the 50 caser didn't go off should definitely acknowledge this. Much like how you're factoring your costs into that $70 box price, my guess is BO was factoring in theirs. The 50 caser is a solid two-three weeks of work for multiple people.

I'm talking about if I wanted to purchase a box from BO. This has nothing to do with case breaks.

Bottom line, you said $70 is too high but BO is $68 and they pay far less. Where is the criticism of BO? That is what I'm asking.

[rutgersjpm]

Originally Posted by HadWayTooMuch

I'm talking about if I wanted to purchase a box from BO. This has nothing to do with case breaks.

Bottom line, you said $70 is too high but BO is $68 and they pay far less. Where is the criticism of BO? That is what I'm asking.

My bad, misunderstood your question.

[Dbacksbaseball]

I will break this down , and this will be my last responce.

So here we go....

It is very simple. If you price a box at higher then what people are willing to pay for it your business will fail! This is simple economics of supply and demand.

If blowout who reaches an international audience is selling at $68, small market economics tell us two things; a you will have to be cheaper or B you will have to have an insane demand.

Insane demand is not sports cards; insane demand is a new underproduced item with a known high demand; in card terms something that a manufacture knows they will be short printing, think first batch of I phones or first Wii.

You closing is the result of one of two things, a. You underestimated your customers ability of finding a better deal B. You overrated the value of service you were providing them to pay the higher prices C. You overrated your customer opinion of buying locally.

Sorry to put it to you that way....best of luck in your card ventures.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by HadWayTooMuch

I'm talking about if I wanted to purchase a box from BO. This has nothing to do with case breaks.

Bottom line, you said $70 is too high but BO is $68 and they pay far less. Where is the criticism of BO? That is what I'm asking.

BO lost me a long time ago with their price games, but I suppose around these parts you have to be careful what you say about them, hence the lack of criticism.

Here is my take as someone who does buy many cases from various LCS...

If you are interested in a product and are pretty sure you will be buying some, try talking to your LCS in advance to pre-order the product at a more reasonable price. Most of the shops around here will order me anything I want because it INCREASES their bottom line to increase their orders for me. That way, they can afford to sell to you a few points above their cost without sacrificing their main business.

Ex. An LCS plans to order 2 cases of Tier One and will sell boxes in his shop for 25% above cost. I ask him to order me 2 cases but I want mine at 10% above. Now he'll order 4 cases. He'll make an extra 10% on me for doing no work at all and STILL make his 25% on the 2 cases he bought for the shop.

If you don't pre-order, then the LCS has a right to charge whatever they want, because those boxes/cases are only going to last so long.

If I owned an LCS, I would offer pre-sell deals like crazy to increase business. Lock in as many customers as you can up front and in turn be able to offer them great prices.

[lisu]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

I will break this down , and this will be my last responce.

So here we go....

It is very simple. If you price a box at higher then what people are willing to pay for it your business will fail! This is simple economics of supply and demand.

If blowout who reaches an international audience is selling at $68, small market economics tell us two things; a you will have to be cheaper or B you will have to have an insane demand.

Insane demand is not sports cards; insane demand is a new underproduced item with a known high demand; in card terms something that a manufacture knows they will be short printing, think first batch of I phones or first Wii.

You closing is the result of one of two things, a. You underestimated your customers ability of finding a better deal B. You overrated the value of service you were providing them to pay the higher prices C. You overrated your customer opinion of buying locally.

Sorry to put it to you that way....best of luck in your card ventures.

LCS's don't charge what Blowout charges. There's a successful card chain in the Bay Area where the overhead is quite high, and they seem to be doing just fine. Obviously, I don't expect to pay Blowout prices if I can just walk in and buy the product, and I will pay a premium to pick it up there and chit chat with fellow collectors. I expect that their first 2016 Bowman boxes will be in the $60 - $65 range, and I expect that they will sell out. Their first jumbo boxes will probably be in the $125 - $135 range, and again, I expect that they will sell out. Not everyone wants to buy online and have wax shipped to them. There are times that they are actually cheaper than Blowout because Blowout's prices fluctuate so much.