Any guesses on print run of Revolution galactic?

[zebrastar]

I'm guess somewhere between 10-25

[GeechQuest]

Here's the exact math.


250 cards with a "Galactic" parallel
150 cards with a "Futura" parallel /25

I've seen probably 15 cases opened and all cases have had EXACTLY 2 Galactic and 2 Futura cards (1 per inner case).

So:

150 (cards with the Futura parallel) x 25 (Futura parallel numbering) = 3750 Futura cards in total

3750 (Futura print run) / 2 (Futura parallels per case) = 1875 cases



So the galactic would be:

2 (Galactic parallels per case) x 1875 cases (the case run based on Futura math) = 3750 Galactic parallels

3750 (cards with Galactic parallel) / 250 (total cards with a Galactic Parallel) = 15, the print run of each Galactic card


Here's the math with pack odds (showstopper parallel)


1875 cases x 16 boxes per case x 8 packs per box = 240,000 packs

240,000 packs / 1323 packs (odds of showstopper Galactic) = 181.40

181.40 (total showstopper galactics) / 12 (number of cards in the showstopper set) = 15.11

[MyckKabongo]

NICE WORK, GeechQuest! By chance, any thoughts on the print runs for this years Prizm refractors or Complete Golds? Not sure Complete can be reverse engineered because it didn't have any numbered cards.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by MyckKabongo

NICE WORK, GeechQuest! By chance, any thoughts on the print runs for this years Prizm refractors or Complete Golds? Not sure Complete can be reverse engineered because it didn't have any numbered cards.

I don't think Prizm is collated perfectly like Revolution is to where you could get a definitive answer, but I also don't care for Prizm so I didn't look it up. I remember doing the "Point Men" refractors and I believe they came out to 25 (assuming perfect collation).

Haven't busted Complete or even seen it opened, but if you get a big enough sample size it can definately be reversed engineered.

[the27guy]

I haven't verified geechs numbers, but that's some solid work right there.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by MyckKabongo

NICE WORK, GeechQuest! By chance, any thoughts on the print runs for this years Prizm refractors or Complete Golds? Not sure Complete can be reverse engineered because it didn't have any numbered cards.

Prizm is much harder because of all the different versions you have (Hobby, Jumbo, Blaster, Rack Pack, Pack). The Silver Prizm versions are in all of them for the base and in most of them for the inserts.

[dasiegel]

I wish I could do math

[Xiarmadillo]

Something does not compute here.....

Suppose to be 1 numbered card per box (at least I guess, so lets just take the minimum 1 to be conservative)
There are 150 + 33 + 30 + 12 + 25 Different Cosmic /100 = 25000 numbered cards
150 Sunburst (/75) and Futura /25 = 15000 numbered
total numbered cards = 40000

Assume best case scenario ALL are inserted then there are 2500 max cases, 40000 boxes. 320K packs.

The 'stated' odds of 1:288 for galactic base means even if you discount completely ALL subset galactics there are at most 320K/ 288*150 ~ 7.5 to 8 of each galactic base. (inserted)
If the galactics subsets are included at same odds then there are less than 5 of each....

This is NOT including who know how many they kept UNPACKED, for whatever reason or reward store.

Are they really that rare?
So far they seem much more readily available considering a case of 16 boxes have 144 packs and most cases have 1-2 Galactics....whereas stated odds means they should be 1 per 2 case. (Obviously they could either have front loaded the early cases...., or maybe the subset Galactics are less rare...dont think it is the case so far)

Or could it be another case of 2012-13 Panini Contenders.....when they first released the odds for HoF contender (at 1:20 cases) and RoY Contender (1:13 cases), alot of people bought them at stupid prices and then it turned out they were approximately 1 per case and not as rare....

[Xiarmadillo]

My guess is they are NOT really 1:288 packs....and are at similar insertion to the Futuras....but maybe there are more not released....

Another thing it remind me is the 2004-05 Upper Deck Spectrum vs Immaculate....whereas alot of ppl believe the Immaculate are more rare, when in reality they are the same insertion rate

[Digerati]

All this math is so impressive, do more! do more!

[Xiarmadillo]

Originally Posted by Digerati

All this math is so impressive, do more! do more!

LOL cant tell if it is sarcasm.

We could all put finger up in the air and come up with an unicorn number

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by Xiarmadillo

Something does not compute here.....

Suppose to be 1 numbered card per box (at least I guess, so lets just take the minimum 1 to be conservative)
There are 150 + 33 + 30 + 12 + 25 Different Cosmic /100 = 25000 numbered cards
150 Sunburst (/75) and Futura /25 = 15000 numbered
total numbered cards = 40000

Assume best case scenario ALL are inserted then there are 2500 max cases, 40000 boxes. 320K packs.

The 'stated' odds of 1:288 for galactic base means even if you discount completely ALL subset galactics there are at most 320K/ 288*150 ~ 7.5 to 8 of each galactic base. (inserted)
If the galactics subsets are included at same odds then there are less than 5 of each....

This is NOT including who know how many they kept UNPACKED, for whatever reason or reward store.

Are they really that rare?
So far they seem much more readily available considering a case of 16 boxes have 144 packs and most cases have 1-2 Galactics....whereas stated odds means they should be 1 per 2 case. (Obviously they could either have front loaded the early cases...., or maybe the subset Galactics are less rare...dont think it is the case so far)

Or could it be another case of 2012-13 Panini Contenders.....when they first released the odds for HoF contender (at 1:20 cases) and RoY Contender (1:13 cases), alot of people bought them at stupid prices and then it turned out they were approximately 1 per case and not as rare....

The exact math is done above but you are right and there are inconsistencies (when using Panini's pack odds)

Assuming each card has a print run of 15 (and I'm 99.99% sure that they do) here's what the breakdown would look like within each set:


Base Set (150 total cards x 15) = 2250 Galactics
New Wave (30 total cards x 15) = 450 Galactics
Rookie Revolution ( 25 total cards x 15) = 375 Galactics
Icons ( 33 total cards x 15) = 495 Galactics
Showstoppers ( 12 total cards x 15) = 180 Galactics

For a total of 3750 total Galactics, as referenced above.

If you reverse engineer the odds for each insert set (using the case run/pack run from above) you'll come out to this as well:

New Wave ( 1:528 packs):
240,000 / 528 (odds) = 454.54
454.54 / 30 (total cards in set) = 15.15

Rookie Revolution ( 1:632 packs):
240,000 / 632 (odds) = 379.74
379.74 / 25 (total cards in set) = 15.18

Icons ( 1:483 packs):
240,000 / 483 = 496.89
496.89 / 33 (total cards in set) = 15.05

Showstoppers ( 1:1323 packs):
240,000 / 1323 = 181.40
181.40 / 12 (total cards in set) = 15.11


Then you come to the Base Galactic

Base (1:288 packs):
240,000 / 288 = 833.33
833.33 / 150 (total cards in set) = 5.55

That doesn't make any sense whatsoever based on any observation of the case breaks. EVERY SINGLE MASTER CASE HAS 2 GALACTICS! There is 1 per inner case. If Panini's odds were real, then somebody should have opened a case (inner or master) without a Galactic, but I've yet to see it done.

I have no clue where the 288 number came from, but guaranteed the real odds of the Galactic Base is 1:96 packs. This would put it's print run at 15, and line up with pulling 2 Galactics per master case. I could show the math, although it's a lot more complicated, but in short the odds stated are for pulling a "certain" type (base or insert) of Galactic, not pulling "any" type Galactic.

If you open 8 boxes out of an inner case, you will be guaranteed 1 Galactic, 1 Futura, and 2 autos. So the actual odds of pulling "any" Galactic are exactly the same as pulling a Futura, even if the Futura has a higher print run.

TL;DR

[BigRhino]

They should have just numbered them!

[Digerati]

Originally Posted by Xiarmadillo

LOL cant tell if it is sarcasm.

No sarcasm here Just nice that someone did the math on this since a lot of people were thinking about the print runs.

But, you know...how much wood would a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood?

[jj2]

Originally Posted by BigRhino

They should have just numbered them!

Then we'd have one less thing to talk about.

A bit of mystery is good every once in a while.

[rauchand]

Originally Posted by jj2

Then we'd have one less thing to talk about.

A bit of mystery is good every once in a while.

agreed. that's part of the reason why this product is a blast to open.

[Harper]

Geech! Can I recruit you to tell me print run on 2000-01 topps gold label leather jersey insert????


Nvm I think I figured it out ..... /25

[BobbyPhills13]

So far, I know of three different Kawhi base Galactics that have been pulled. I've seen 2 each of many other players, but the 3 kawhi's are the most of one card I've noticed so far. Just throwing that out there.

[cardcollector20]

Images courtesy of comc.com

[rauchand]

Im a fan. Just got these in. More on the way. A lot of the top guys haven't even shown up yet. I'd say /15 is accurate. Gorgeous cards in hand.

[ReggieEvansPC]

I picked up the Rodney Hood from eBay. I can't wait to see what it looks like in hand. Here is the picture from the listing;

[ReggieEvansPC]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

That doesn't make any sense whatsoever based on any observation of the case breaks. EVERY SINGLE MASTER CASE HAS 2 GALACTICS! There is 1 per inner case. If Panini's odds were real, then somebody should have opened a case (inner or master) without a Galactic, but I've yet to see it done.

I haven't directly contacted the OP, but it appears that it is possible to have only one Galactic in a single master case.

http://www.blowoutcards.com/forums/b...evolution.html

[nfunk]

I was super lucky and pulled this out of one of the 3 boxes that I purchased

IMG_3113 by Nate Flesher, on Flickr

It's PC and I'm not selling. Have yet to see another surface.

[Xiarmadillo]

Originally Posted by ReggieEvansPC

I haven't directly contacted the OP, but it appears that it is possible to have only one Galactic in a single master case.

http://www.blowoutcards.com/forums/b...evolution.html

Still stands that at the odds indicated these should be popping up much rarer than they are (at half to a third the frequency)

Still doesnt add up

Another thing is Panini should stop putting out low serialled cards, and just put in the astronomical odds to pull them, people clearly pay way more for those than similar print run serial cards. I think the card company is catching on somewhat though after 7 years

[derder]

I'm going to be the jackass that asks what stands out on the galactic to let you know you in fact have a galactic? They all look too similar to me...