Official Unofficial College Football Playoff Thread

[preakness]

It wouldn't be crazy if the committee took ND over Clemson if ND won out and Clemson loses to NC

Keep in mind that ND lost by only two and at Clemson

There is a possibility of nc leap frogging Clemson and unc

Do I think Iowa and or unc are top 4 in the nation? Heck no, but one or both could be playing in the brackets

I would take Baylor, okl state, Sooners over Tar Heels or Iowa if betting on game but can also see why committee puts in unc or Iowa if either wins out including conference championship


Shame unc non conference sucked
2 brutals, lost to South Carolina, beat weak Illini

[asujbl]

Originally Posted by aliceinpains

Sure they will. And no it wont make them look overrated. NC is a really good team.

Not a chance.

If NC wins out will they have a chance? Sure

But in no way shape or form does NC winning out guarantee them a spot in the Top 4 unless they get additional help

[mr10pin]

Originally Posted by pgisback

I'm a PAC-12 fan. I simply want to see the best teams playing. And from watching every Saturday, the Big 12 has the best teams. There's no other conference that comes close. The SEC and Big 10 would have a lot of trouble with these offenses. Like last year and this year.

I want to make sure I understand:

Last year TCU and Baylor were the best teams in the country because the Big 12 was the best conference and they just got screwed out of the CFP? This is proven because TCU pasted 3 loss Ole Miss? And maybe because Oklahoma State beat Washington? Also, Baylor losing to Michigan State, West Virginia losing to Texas A&M, Kansas State losing to UCLA, Oklahoma not showing up against Clemson and Texas getting hammered by Arkansas are irrelevant.

Also for the record, TCU didn't get screwed last year. Baylor may have, but TCU didn't. The committee said all along that head-to-head mattered. Once Baylor finished with one loss, the ceiling for TCU was one spot below Baylor because of the loss to Baylor.

[aliceinpains]

Originally Posted by asujbl

Not a chance.

If NC wins out will they have a chance? Sure

But in no way shape or form does NC winning out guarantee them a spot in the Top 4 unless they get additional help

The number 1 criteria of the committee is conference champions. If NC wins out they will get in over a 2 loss pac 12 team. Utah and Stanford both have 2 losses. they already got the additional help needed.

[NorseForce]

Originally Posted by mr10pin

I want to make sure I understand:

Last year TCU and Baylor were the best teams in the country because the Big 12 was the best conference and they just got screwed out of the CFP? This is proven because TCU pasted 3 loss Ole Miss? And maybe because Oklahoma State beat Washington? Also, Baylor losing to Michigan State, West Virginia losing to Texas A&M, Kansas State losing to UCLA, Oklahoma not showing up against Clemson and Texas getting hammered by Arkansas are irrelevant.

Also for the record, TCU didn't get screwed last year. Baylor may have, but TCU didn't. The committee said all along that head-to-head mattered. Once Baylor finished with one loss, the ceiling for TCU was one spot below Baylor because of the loss to Baylor.

The problem with that is TCU was ahead of Baylor in their poll until the last one they released in which TCU dropped from #3 to #6. If they really believed that Baylor would never have been behind TCU. And by their reasoning, if Clemson loses a game then they can't finish behind Notre Dame. Also if Oklahoma wins out they can't use the Texas loss against them. They proved that by bumping up Ohio St last year even with a double digit home loss against a 6 loss team. If they waiver away from those explanations then it shows what hypocrites they are. There's a lot of football left to play and I believe at most there will 2 undefeated teams left at the end.

[mr10pin]

Originally Posted by NorseForce

The problem with that is TCU was ahead of Baylor in their poll until the last one they released in which TCU dropped from #3 to #6. If they really believed that Baylor would never have been behind TCU. And by their reasoning, if Clemson loses a game then they can't finish behind Notre Dame. Also if Oklahoma wins out they can't use the Texas loss against them. They proved that by bumping up Ohio St last year even with a double digit home loss against a 6 loss team. If they waiver away from those explanations then it shows what hypocrites they are. There's a lot of football left to play and I believe at most there will 2 undefeated teams left at the end.

The real problem is our preconceived notions of "right" or "fair" based on how the polls have operated in the past.

The committee believed TCU to be a better and more deserving team throughout the season even after the loss to Baylor...I would assume mostly because Baylor had the loss to WVU, but also that TCU appeared to be a better team with the "eye test." As the season progressed, Baylor continued winning and rising in the poll. Once the season was completed the committee had no choice but to rank Baylor ahead of TCU based upon the Head-to-Head result and Baylor's Big 12 conference championship (or co-championship). Keep in mind, the Big 12's website is ontruechampion.org. They advertised all year that there was going to be "One True Champion" because their teams all played each other. Once the leaders of that conference realized that meant they were probably going to get left out if Ohio State or MSU won out they started changing their tune to have potential co-champions. This rhetoric gained steam after Ohio State jumped Baylor with their win over Michigan State. Well, Ohio State won out and got that 4th spot, obviously. It makes complete sense that TCU would fall to 6 because they weren't a conference champion...the 5 teams ahead of them WERE conference champions. If you consider Baylor and TCU co-champions, then the committee still had to put Baylor ahead of TCU based on the results head-to-head. Here are some notes from the committee's website on the criteria:


Principles. The committee will select the teams using a process that distinguishes among otherwise comparable teams by considering:
Conference championships won,
Strength of schedule,
Head-to-head competition,
Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory), and,
Other relevant factors such as key injuries that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.

I think the Clemson/Notre Dame argument is an interesting one. I would suggest that Clemson would drop below Notre Dame if they lost the conference championship game (no championship), but may not if they stumbled en route to that game. To me, I would be very interested to see how the committee would handle that one. I believe that if Clemson lost a close game to S. Carolina but won the ACC they may stay ahead of Notre Dame, but if Notre Dame wins out and Clemson loses the ACC Championship game then Notre Dame would jump then.

I'm not sure how I feel about the Oklahoma scenario, but I believe that if Oklahoma wins out and Notre Dame wins out that Notre Dame will likely stay ahead of them unless Oklahoma absolutely dominates from here on out and Notre Dame doesn't. It will be the Texas game that should absolutely keep Notre Dame ahead of Oklahoma.

[trixstar]

Vegas says #7 Sooners favored by ...
-3 over #4 Notre Dame
-6 over #5 Iowa
-2.5 over #6 Oklahoma St

[NorseForce]

Originally Posted by mr10pin

The real problem is our preconceived notions of "right" or "fair" based on how the polls have operated in the past.

The committee believed TCU to be a better and more deserving team throughout the season even after the loss to Baylor...I would assume mostly because Baylor had the loss to WVU, but also that TCU appeared to be a better team with the "eye test." As the season progressed, Baylor continued winning and rising in the poll. Once the season was completed the committee had no choice but to rank Baylor ahead of TCU based upon the Head-to-Head result and Baylor's Big 12 conference championship (or co-championship). Keep in mind, the Big 12's website is ontruechampion.org. They advertised all year that there was going to be "One True Champion" because their teams all played each other. Once the leaders of that conference realized that meant they were probably going to get left out if Ohio State went undefeated they started changing their tune to have potential co-champions. This rhetoric gained steam after Ohio State jumped Baylor with their win over Michigan State. Well, Ohio State won out and got that 4th spot, obviously. It makes complete sense that TCU would fall to 6 because they weren't a conference champion...the 5 teams ahead of them WERE conference champions. If you consider Baylor and TCU co-champions, then the committee still had to put Baylor ahead of TCU based on the results head-to-head. Here are some notes from the committee's website on the criteria:


Principles. The committee will select the teams using a process that distinguishes among otherwise comparable teams by considering:
Conference championships won,
Strength of schedule,
Head-to-head competition,
Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory), and,
Other relevant factors such as key injuries that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.

I think the Clemson/Notre Dame argument is an interesting one. I would suggest that Clemson would drop below Notre Dame if they lost the conference championship game (no championship), but may not if they stumbled en route to that game. To me, I would be very interested to see how the committee would handle that one. I believe that if Clemson lost a close game to S. Carolina but won the ACC they may stay ahead of Notre Dame, but if Notre Dame wins out and Clemson loses the ACC Championship game then Notre Dame would jump then.

I'm not sure how I feel about the Oklahoma scenario, but I believe that if Oklahoma wins out and Notre Dame wins out that Notre Dame will likely stay ahead of them unless Oklahoma absolutely dominates from here on out and Notre Dame doesn't. It will be the Texas game that should absolutely keep Notre Dame ahead of Oklahoma.

Yet as an independent Notre Dame won't be a conference champion. And if Oklahoma wins out they will have two road wins better than any one win Notre Dame has and will be a conference champion. The media seems to be split on which team would get the nod.

[NorseForce]

I'll add that OUs strength of schedule is 3rd and ND is 9th. With the games remaining OU will stay ahead of ND in sos. So the first two criteria the committee goes by favors OU. You have to drop to the fourth one to favor ND.

[mr10pin]

Interesting points. I'm assuming the committee will consider the conference championship a moot point because it isn't applicable to ND. Also, you're assuming the criteria is listed in a hierarchical order, but they may be weighted evenly.

[NorseForce]

Originally Posted by mr10pin

Interesting points. I'm assuming the committee will consider the conference championship a moot point because it isn't applicable to ND. Also, you're assuming the criteria is listed in a hierarchical order, but they may be weighted evenly.

I'd assume they'd factor them all in, just pointing out that 2 would favor OU and 1 would favor ND. This is just one scenerio though. Every team involved has tough games left so who knows how this will play out. I'd rather there be just one poll at the end which is the only one that matters.

[asujbl]

Originally Posted by aliceinpains

The number 1 criteria of the committee is conference champions. If NC wins out they will get in over a 2 loss pac 12 team. Utah and Stanford both have 2 losses. they already got the additional help needed.

OK...

They still aren't getting in ahead of Ohio State, Iowa, or Michigan State should any of them win the Big-10 championship with 1 loss.

They also aren't getting in over Notre Dame if they win out.

They also aren't getting in over Bama if they win out

They also aren't getting in over OK State if they win out

So like I said - they need help - NC is absolutely not getting in just by winning the rest of their games.

They need help from others. If you think NC controls their own destiny you are out of your mind.

[aliceinpains]

Originally Posted by asujbl

OK...



They also aren't getting in over Notre Dame if they win out.

Yes they will. You have to realize Notre dame lost to Clemson and if NC wins out, they will have beaten the team ND lost to. And Notre Dame will not be playing on the final week. So NC has too many advantages.

[pgisback]

If the Big 12 gets left out of the CFP again, it will be a complete joke. The rankings are such a joke. They had LSU #2, Ole Miss #3. It's such a heavy SEC/Big 10 bias.

[aliceinpains]

Originally Posted by pgisback

If the Big 12 gets left out of the CFP again, it will be a complete joke. The rankings are such a joke. They had LSU #2, Ole Miss #3. It's such a heavy SEC/Big 10 bias.

Its an sec bias for sure. Jeff Long is a SEC ad and is dissappointed Bama is not #1.

We're still living with the residue of the Old BCS system. Under the BCS system, we were told before the season ever started every single year that the SEC Champ automatically got one spot,while the other 115 teams fought it out for the other spot. That gave the conference a 50% chance of winning the Championship before a down was ever played

[blevins26]

Originally Posted by pgisback

If the Big 12 gets left out of the CFP again, it will be a complete joke. The rankings are such a joke. They had LSU #2, Ole Miss #3. It's such a heavy SEC/Big 10 bias.

Agreed. Check out Joel Klatt's explanation from last week on The Ticket in Dallas.

Basically, he said that guys like Barry Alvarez & Tom Osborne don't understand or value the Big 12 style of play (no huddle, high powered offenses, etc.). They don't understand that if you look at metrics like Points-Per-Possession that a defense that gives up 35 points in game can be just as good as one that gives up 17.

It's just plain silly that Ohio State & Iowa are both ranked ahead of OK St. or even Oklahoma for that matter. Neither of them have played anybody worthwhile and both the Big 12 teams have a win against a top tier opponent.

Now, some people are going to say, "but OU has 1 loss, they shouldn't be ranked higher than undefeated Iowa or Ohio St". Really? Alabama is. Who did they beat??? A #2 LSU team that the committee had put there for no apparent reason and who has now lost 2 in a row.

It's all SEC bias. It's just harder to hide it when there are 4 teams in the tournament.

[pgisback]

Originally Posted by blevins26

Agreed. Check out Joel Klatt's explanation from last week on The Ticket in Dallas.

Basically, he said that guys like Barry Alvarez & Tom Osborne don't understand or value the Big 12 style of play (no huddle, high powered offenses, etc.). They don't understand that if you look at metrics like Points-Per-Possession that a defense that gives up 35 points in game can be just as good as one that gives up 17.

It's just plain silly that Ohio State & Iowa are both ranked ahead of OK St. or even Oklahoma for that matter. Neither of them have played anybody worthwhile and both the Big 12 teams have a win against a top tier opponent.

Now, some people are going to say, "but OU has 1 loss, they shouldn't be ranked higher than undefeated Iowa or Ohio St". Really? Alabama is. Who did they beat??? A #2 LSU team that the committee had put there for no apparent reason and who has now lost 2 in a row.

It's all SEC bias. It's just harder to hide it when there are 4 teams in the tournament.

Agreed. It's just flawed all over the place right now. Like the SEC has 5 teams in the top 10 of strength of schedule. Yet you have a team like Texas Tech play

Oklahoma
Ok St
Baylor
TCU

And they're not even in the top 25 of SoS. And the committee will give the joke explanation that their decisions were based on their own faulty SoS system. There's absolutely no way you can have those 4 teams on your schedule and not have an SoS in the top 10.

[aliceinpains]

Oklahoma probably has the worst loss of any power 5 team(Texas). They don't deserve to be ranked in the top 4. Iowa has more good wins than any Big 12 team by far. They beat Northwestern, Wisconsin, Duke, and Pitt.

[pgisback]

Originally Posted by aliceinpains

Oklahoma probably has the worst loss of any power 5 team(Texas). They don't deserve to be ranked in the top 4. Iowa has more good wins than any Big 12 team by far. They beat Northwestern, Wisconsin, Duke, and Pitt.

Ok St, Ok, Tcu, and Baylor all have more impressive wins than Iowa. The fact NW and Wisconsin are in the top 25 is a complete travesty to the game of football. The top 4 big 12 teams would kill them and another 4-5 teams would be competitive.

[NorseForce]

Originally Posted by aliceinpains

Oklahoma probably has the worst loss of any power 5 team(Texas). They don't deserve to be ranked in the top 4. Iowa has more good wins than any Big 12 team by far. They beat Northwestern, Wisconsin, Duke, and Pitt.

Ohio St had the worst loss last year (at home by double digits to a 6 loss team) and won it all. And check your facts, Oklahoma's SOS is 3rd and Iowa's is 60. Btw Iowa didn't play Duke.
9 of the 10 Big 12 teams have a SOS better than Iowa. Only Kansas is below them. Which doesn't make sense since they play the other Big 12 teams.

[NorseForce]

Originally Posted by trixstar

Vegas says #7 Sooners favored by ...
-3 over #4 Notre Dame
-6 over #5 Iowa
-2.5 over #6 Oklahoma St

That's interesting. Oklahoma has the best win of any team though. Only Ou and Clemson have a win against a team in the current top 10 and OUs was on the road. They are playing as good as anyone right now.

[pgisback]

I forgot Iowa played a big 12 team this year. It was 17-17 with 3 min to go.

[NorseForce]

Originally Posted by pgisback

I forgot Iowa played a big 12 team this year. It was 17-17 with 3 min to go.

Yeah I think Iowa/Iowa St play every year.

[mr10pin]

Originally Posted by pgisback

I forgot Iowa played a big 12 team this year. It was 17-17 with 3 min to go.

You're interesting...I think this is supposed to be a knock on Iowa, but you're forgetting that it is actually a better position than Oklahoma State was in against the same team. You're knocking Iowa and praising Big 12 teams, but Iowa performed about the same or better than your Big 12 teams against common opponents. See Iowa and OK State vs. Iowa State, and Iowa and TCU against Minnesota. You're actually showing that Iowa is as good as any team in the Big 12. Heck, even I'm not sure I agree with that.

[mr10pin]

Originally Posted by NorseForce

That's interesting. Oklahoma has the best win of any team though. Only Ou and Clemson have a win against a team in the current top 10 and OUs was on the road. They are playing as good as anyone right now.

Oklahoma is an interesting case...they remind me of Ohio State from last year. I may be coming around to them jumping ND if both win out. I still say that the Big 12's best shot is Oklahoma State winning out...they would definitely jump a one loss ND.