Quote:
Originally Posted by DynaEtch
Sort of unclear what the LCM method is (just taking the least LCM of all the pack odds?), but probably have to take some of that with a huge grain of salt…for example I wouldn’t be surprised if UD rounded those numbers pretty liberally.
Beckett checklist does list epack for inserts available in epack. It just says only hobby for the top secret minis, so I do think it’s a good guess that it is 37,600 boxes of physical alone + whatever is in epack. 47k total sounds too low since it would be unusual for epack to have nearly just 1/5th of total production, sounds low.
What do the blaster yellow /90s fall, are they one per box? Trying to figure out the print run of the blasters. The reason being I’m trying to gauge the jambalaya print run this time around. Old jambalayas ranged from /20ish to /150ish if I recall. This one has to be way up there.
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I’ll help you out with this. The good thing is you can see my logic so if you agree, you can take it but if you don’t, I get some feedback on how to do this better.
The LCM is literally just taking the least common multiple of every single pack odd listed. You’re right in saying UD could round up or down, but I don’t think they do so liberally. The most, I’d say, is less than 1 whole number. From here, you can have a starting point of production run of hobby boxes at least. From those production run estimates, you can then take expected hit frequency of numbered parallels and see how closely they line up to anecdotal case breaks, as well as personal case breaks. For example, if you end up a ruby medallion every 9 boxes across 3 cases, from that small sample size you’d say pack odds are 1:108 packs. But what you can do is take all the Ruby medallions in the print (5000) and the determine pack odds based on different production run estimates.
For hobby/epack, I believe the production run for hobby/epack based on LCM is ~47,000 boxes. The next LCM has us at a print run of 94,000 boxes and if that were the case, numbers would suggest people wouldn’t be pulling any inserts at the frequency they are on these posted case breaks. 10-11k boxes may seem low for epack, however the number of digital base FUA (if you tracked base, rainbow, gold rainbow, accounted for sales) was about 4000 per character, which lines up with 10k boxes. I’m guessing the least amount of hobby/epack would be ~47k boxes, but it could be more. Based on pulls of numbered cards, the range I’d be comfortable in projecting is up to 56k boxes.
With regard to blaster, if 1 yellow per box, print run would be 13,500 blaster boxes in this scenario. However, based on LCM with other blaster inserts, yellows will be 1 in every 3.55 blasters for a total blaster production of ~48,000 blaster boxes.
All in all, I personally believe there are roughly 82 jambalayas printed per character, which is far lower than other FU sets. This is because pack odds are double (1:288 as opposed to 1:144).
07-09-2024, 01:56 PM
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