2024 Upper Deck Fleer Ultra Marvel Wolverine

[Marvel Card]

Originally Posted by glorbgorb

This is an odd set to me. Wolverine is already one of the most popular characters out there, and he appears in every non-MCU set made as it is. So they throw in a couple more--Old Man Logan, some Weapon X cards--but we see those in other sets as well. So is this just another Marvel set with 'more popularity' because it has Wolverine in the name, some Claw Cut Covers (say that fast five times), and a handful more base cards?

He's been in comics with every conceivable other character you can think of (not literally, but you get the point) so at what point does this stop being a Wolverine set and start being just another Marvel set?

This is mainly in response to all those "I'm all in on FU Wolverine, but didn't buy any of FU Avengers or <fill in the blank>". At some point these are ALL just Marvel sets.

I think that’s exactly what upper deck is banking on, the popularity of Wolverine. To me, this is just another fleer ultra x-men set (which I’m hyped about) with some additional Wolverine cards. I think they may have figured that was enough to justify this print run but honestly I’m really curious to see how these boxes play out long term. 50k hobby/epack is much different than 30-35k hobby/epack.

As BobCollects pointed out, people have wisened up to how upper deck prices these boxes and print runs. $235-$250 preorder is more indicative of print run than anything to me. I do think this will be the set where UD determines higher print runs may not be the way to go in such a closed distribution ecosystem. I really don’t know who they were fooling when they jacked up the number of hobby/epack they were putting out for this set. I love the art, I will surely collect, but if hobby boxes aren’t available at $150 by this time next year will be utterly shocked/floored whatever you want to call it. I believe fleer ultra midnight sons is going sub $100 by the same time.

[rangeljon]

I think this is one of the better Ultra Marvel sets of recent memory. Still super similar to last few for sure. But the additional inserts and claw background is cool.

The Credentials are great. Still hate the thick stock base. As a 90s basketball kid, I really want a proper Ultra set still: regular 35 pt stock, remainder of missing inserts across the years, etc. Even a Fleer Traditions-like set would be great for Marvel.

Did a loose box + 5 boxes from a sealed inner case and had probably best luck you could have:

Cyclops Animation Cell Auto /13
Artist Auto (Magneto /74)
(2) Gold Medallions
(2) Top Secret Minis /42 (Cyclops and Mister Sinister)
(2) Credentials (Magneto and Hope Summers)
Orange Base /25 (Nick Fury Jr.)
Wolverine Jambalaya

[kyle1707]

Agree. I don’t like the thick cards.
But besides that

This product is beautiful .. ex jambalaya medallions etc

I really like the pop culture cards

If it was 2019 and it was 130 a box

It would be great

I don’t think this product drops much. 200-220 maybe ?

[DynaEtch]

I third the notion of being against the thick card stock. Im really over these thick cards. They are barely even cards.

They had their run, since 2016. I would like to see UD go back to more normal cards, FU and MM sets both. Easier to store. More card-like. Platinum was regular stock and that worked out just fine.

[Marvel Card]

Originally Posted by kyle1707

Agree. I don’t like the thick cards.
But besides that

This product is beautiful .. ex jambalaya medallions etc

I really like the pop culture cards

If it was 2019 and it was 130 a box

It would be great

I don’t think this product drops much. 200-220 maybe ?

I personally think this product drops markedly below $200. If you look at the checklist for this set, top secret minis are 1:96 packs. There are 47 parallels of 100 characters. This right here is 37,600 physical boxes right there. According to multiple sources, the top secrets are only in physical, not epack. So add in whatever epack allotment will be to the hobby box count. Based on least common denominator, the fewest hobby boxes (physical and epack combined) upper deck can make, if there insert odds for non numbered are to be believed, is roughly 47,000 boxes.

Lower preorder price for this signifies greater inventory, combined with lagging sales are higher price points for fleer ultra (avengers and midnight sons). I know the demand for this set may be greater than FUA, but is it 50% greater? I’d argue no, especially with medallion speculation from the few sports guys who bought into this initially gone. With the upcoming epack, masterpieces drop, epack premier drop, physical metal avengers release…I’d have to believe the market is already nearing saturation.

I’ll go on record stating I believe, at least at Dave and Adam’s, this goes to $200 by January 1, and drops as low as $150 by June of next year.

[kakarot12]

I don’t think this product drops much. 200-220 maybe ?[/QUOTE]

Agreed. I don’t see it coming down lower than $200. Maybe….maybe $175ish but no way $150

[finfangfan]

Interesting discussion on state of the hobby during the glut. In a vacuum, I would assume a set called Fleer Ultra Wolverine would outperform a set called Fleer Ultra Avengers just based on the popularity of Wolverine (and X-men) with collectors trumping Avengers.

However, FUA had the advantage of being released earlier and caught some of the tail end COVID bubble. Plus, it might have been lower printed than Wolvie (not sure tho). So, that might mean that once Wolvie hits ePack it lasts longer than FUA did there (which is now sold out) and if Wolvie sits awhile on ePack that could mean secondary prices of hobby boxes would lower overtime due to oversupply.

I still think I pick up a blaster if it ever hits my Walmart as an impulse buy but don’t think I will otherwise actively collect this set.

[PNWcards]

I’d be shocked and very disappointed if the minis aren’t in the epack release. If they are then this set is much more short printed than some of the posts above are suggesting. I’ve see many boxes with multiple “box hits” (the sets grouped together that are supposed to average 1:12 packs total). With how badly Fleer Ultra Avengers has performed due to the significant print run I wouldn’t be surprised if this set was printed much less than Avengers. That being said, I really just hope those minis are in epack as that’s the only way I see being able to complete that set relatively easy. Personally, I’m enjoying this set much more than Fleer Ultra Avengers and IMO the artwork is significantly better. I just wish they had included Fantomex in this set lol.

[DynaEtch]

I haven’t looked at either the print run of FUW or FUA in depth because I don’t collect FU’s, but didn’t Marvel Card at one point calculate the print run of FUA and wasn’t it relatively low, on the order of 25k-30k boxes or something?

What is the concrete calculation for FUW being 50kish boxes, can someone provide it?

[DynaEtch]

Originally Posted by Marvel Card

If you look at the checklist for this set, top secret minis are 1:96 packs. There are 47 parallels of 100 characters.

Am I reading this correctly, there are 47 parallels of each character? Whattttt. Reaching levels of insanity if that’s the case.

Edit: nvm. I was misreading. I see now you are saying 47 total for each mini, not 47 different parallels. It does indeed lead to a quick calculation of 37600 hobby boxes from that alone, but I don’t think we can be 100% sure yet if that doesn’t include ePack. If in fact the minis are just in physical, then this print run including ePack could be huge, 60-80k boxes right? Isn’t ePack and physical closer to 50/50 these days?

[LittleJimmies]

Don't think anyone has mentioned, but one thing that could make for a pretty big spike in demand for this set is the movie coming out in a couple weeks. If good, Deadpool/Wolverine should be incredibly popular.

[Marvel Card]

Originally Posted by DynaEtch

I haven’t looked at either the print run of FUW or FUA in depth because I don’t collect FU’s, but didn’t Marvel Card at one point calculate the print run of FUA and wasn’t it relatively low, on the order of 25k-30k boxes or something?

What is the concrete calculation for FUW being 50kish boxes, can someone provide it?

Correct, of course the disclaimer is my print run estimates rely on pack odds by upper deck being correct. I use pack odds to calculate the least common multiple. I then take the numbered inserts and use anecdotal evidence.

For fleer ultra avengers, I estimated the print run to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 30-32k hobby boxes if I remember correctly. I used the LCM method but I also figured the odds of numbered cards based on my pulls. I’m not an influencer and have no social media regarding my cards, but I’m positive I have opened the most cases of fleer ultra avengers of anyone. I still have many more remaining unopened. I believe I have opened roughly 37 cases of FUA. Based on a print run of 30-32k hobby boxes, my pulls of medallions, autos, reds, blues, UP variants, etc were pretty consistent with a print run of 30-32k boxes. Oh, and the amethysts were rarer than the rubies.

But back to fleer ultra wolverine, Beckett has the only non blaster numbered insert (that’s hobby only, and not hobby and epack) as the top secret minis. I’m basing my print run estimate somewhat off of this. If epack and hobby both contain top secret minis, then it’s clear the print run is 37,600 boxes. If top secret minis are only hobby and not on epack, the LCM suggests a print run of roughly 47k boxes.

In either case, I have 0 doubt in my mind the print run for FUW is much larger than it was for FUA. If top secret minis are on epack as well, then I believe the print run is about 15-18% larger than FUA. But if not, then I’m willing to bet it’s at least 50% greater. I actually have pack/box odds for every numbered insert at roughly 80 different print run estimates. Someone opening at least 20 cases of this stuff on camera could anecdotally confirm which print run is likely. But even without that, large anecdotal pull data can do the same thing so long as its case breaks and not individual box breaks.

[glorbgorb]

Originally Posted by LittleJimmies

Don't think anyone has mentioned, but one thing that could make for a pretty big spike in demand for this set is the movie coming out in a couple weeks. If good, Deadpool/Wolverine should be incredibly popular.

I dunno, they're both already popular characters, and FUW is comic-based not MCU/Sony/whatever mish-mash this movie is. What will be more telling is the eventual set that UD puts out for the movie. Granted, it will be a couple of years from now, probably.

[finfangfan]

I bet we get a print to order weekly for DP/Wolvie

[jjas311]

Regardless of print run, I don't think this drops as low as FUA or Midnight. Wolvie and Spidey will always carry a premium and the art/inserts on this set are much better than FUA and Midnight.

FUW and FUSM are in a different league than FUA and FUMS.

[Marvel Card]

Originally Posted by jjas311

Regardless of print run, I don't think this drops as low as FUA or Midnight. Wolvie and Spidey will always carry a premium and the art/inserts on this set are much better than FUA and Midnight.

FUW and FUSM are in a different league than FUA and FUMS.

I don’t disagree than FUW and FUSM are in a different league as far as collectors go, I disagree with the notion that print run doesn’t matter. Basic economic principals would state otherwise.

[jjas311]

Originally Posted by Marvel Card

I don’t disagree than FUW and FUSM are in a different league as far as collectors go, I disagree with the notion that print run doesn’t matter. Basic economic principals would state otherwise.

economic principals...lol

The card world tends to overlook basic economic principles, especially print run.

Everyone knows we are in a junk wax era, printing Bedard and Wemby rookies like its 1989 again. But it doesn't stop people from paying $20 a pack for UD S2 and I don't even know how much for a pack of 23-24 Prizm basketball.

We're degenerates and what's hot is hot. FUW will do well because people love Wolvie.

[fabiani12333]

My impressions:

-- Base cards: Solid. The artwork ranges from fine to pretty good, with multiple standouts. They are worthy of the Fleer Ultra brand. The foil claws are a nice touch. There are too many emerald parallels, though. The cards also look a bit too thick -- maybe it's intentionally done to give them a premium look to support the high pricing model.

--Inserts: Mostly underwhelming. The EX Century insert is the best -- a very faithful recreation of the 90s version. Aliases, Greatest Battles, Team Affiliations and Family Genealogy are just cheap-looking product filler. The Animation Cel insert and Comic Cuts border design are pretty bland. The Jambalaya background design is very weak -- looks like random AI-generated artwork. The Medallions and Ultrabilities are solid recreations -- nothing special. The Claw Cut Covers is a nice call-back to Wolverine comic book issue number 50.

[DynaEtch]

Originally Posted by Marvel Card

Correct, of course the disclaimer is my print run estimates rely on pack odds by upper deck being correct. I use pack odds to calculate the least common multiple. I then take the numbered inserts and use anecdotal evidence.

For fleer ultra avengers, I estimated the print run to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 30-32k hobby boxes if I remember correctly. I used the LCM method but I also figured the odds of numbered cards based on my pulls. I’m not an influencer and have no social media regarding my cards, but I’m positive I have opened the most cases of fleer ultra avengers of anyone. I still have many more remaining unopened. I believe I have opened roughly 37 cases of FUA. Based on a print run of 30-32k hobby boxes, my pulls of medallions, autos, reds, blues, UP variants, etc were pretty consistent with a print run of 30-32k boxes. Oh, and the amethysts were rarer than the rubies.

But back to fleer ultra wolverine, Beckett has the only non blaster numbered insert (that’s hobby only, and not hobby and epack) as the top secret minis. I’m basing my print run estimate somewhat off of this. If epack and hobby both contain top secret minis, then it’s clear the print run is 37,600 boxes. If top secret minis are only hobby and not on epack, the LCM suggests a print run of roughly 47k boxes.

In either case, I have 0 doubt in my mind the print run for FUW is much larger than it was for FUA. If top secret minis are on epack as well, then I believe the print run is about 15-18% larger than FUA. But if not, then I’m willing to bet it’s at least 50% greater. I actually have pack/box odds for every numbered insert at roughly 80 different print run estimates. Someone opening at least 20 cases of this stuff on camera could anecdotally confirm which print run is likely. But even without that, large anecdotal pull data can do the same thing so long as its case breaks and not individual box breaks.

Sort of unclear what the LCM method is (just taking the least LCM of all the pack odds?), but probably have to take some of that with a huge grain of salt…for example I wouldn’t be surprised if UD rounded those numbers pretty liberally.

Beckett checklist does list epack for inserts available in epack. It just says only hobby for the top secret minis, so I do think it’s a good guess that it is 37,600 boxes of physical alone + whatever is in epack. 47k total sounds too low since it would be unusual for epack to have nearly just 1/5th of total production, sounds low.

What do the blaster yellow /90s fall, are they one per box? Trying to figure out the print run of the blasters. The reason being I’m trying to gauge the jambalaya print run this time around. Old jambalayas ranged from /20ish to /150ish if I recall. This one has to be way up there.

[DynaEtch]

A nit pick: I don’t get the point of having essentially 4 regular Wolverines in the base set. The last being Logan #100 but it’s just another regular Wolverine in costume. All it does is weaken the special-ness of getting a Wolverine, in a parallel say, since there’s all those others out there. Make it so there’s one Wolverine, which is the ‘hit’ to get.
I don’t remember back in 2017 FUSM there being like 4 different regular Spider-Man cards in the base set.

[finfangfan]

Originally Posted by DynaEtch

A nit pick: I don’t get the point of having essentially 4 regular Wolverines in the base set. The last being Logan #100 but it’s just another regular Wolverine in costume. All it does is weaken the special-ness of getting a Wolverine, in a parallel say, since there’s all those others out there. Make it so there’s one Wolverine, which is the ‘hit’ to get.
I don’t remember back in 2017 FUSM there being like 4 different regular Spider-Man cards in the base set.

Based on earlier poster saying economic principles of supply and demand don’t apply to trading cards (news to me!), you’d think Upper Deck would capitalize on this by making Wolverine the subject of all 100 base cards… why limit to 4 if supply/demand doesn’t apply? Lol

[Yanks23]

I would agree that this product will fall below $200 once online dealers are allowed to drop prices. I dont see much of it being opened so there got to a lot of wax around. Fb sales posts arent getting any comments in groups and ebay has only 400 sold items with nothing over $1k even sold yet. I did several cases of avengers and sold everything i didnt want to keep on fb and ebay within 2 weeks of release.

Platinum on epack is better buy at $220 a box with several big name 1/1 still not hit compared to the biggest hits in this product at $250 a box. Blaster are too expensive at $35+ tax a box when yellow and inserts wont hold the value for resale.

[DynaEtch]

Originally Posted by finfangfan

Based on earlier poster saying economic principles of supply and demand don’t apply to trading cards (news to me!), you’d think Upper Deck would capitalize on this by making Wolverine the subject of all 100 base cards… why limit to 4 if supply/demand doesn’t apply? Lol

May as well!

But really…I don’t have as much of an issue with this ‘duplicate character’ thing when it’s just a low-end base set and different cards are exploring the character differently artistically. We’ve seen this in 90s marvel, in fact specifically with 1996 FUXM Wolverine where Wolvie himself had several bases (that looked quite different!). It’s fun, the set is cheap, and who cares as much.

It’s when higher end parallels get involved, I just think it weakens it. Like the /5 top secret mini…wow imagine pulling a Wolverine in that. But then there’s multiple other Wolverines out there in that. Or any of the lower parallels. See a bit of the same of this in other sets that have both low and high versions. (And also in spidey Metal when regular spidey had like 4 base).

[PNWcards]

Originally Posted by DynaEtch

Sort of unclear what the LCM method is (just taking the least LCM of all the pack odds?), but probably have to take some of that with a huge grain of salt…for example I wouldn’t be surprised if UD rounded those numbers pretty liberally.

Beckett checklist does list epack for inserts available in epack. It just says only hobby for the top secret minis, so I do think it’s a good guess that it is 37,600 boxes of physical alone + whatever is in epack. 47k total sounds too low since it would be unusual for epack to have nearly just 1/5th of total production, sounds low.

What do the blaster yellow /90s fall, are they one per box? Trying to figure out the print run of the blasters. The reason being I’m trying to gauge the jambalaya print run this time around. Old jambalayas ranged from /20ish to /150ish if I recall. This one has to be way up there.

Based on my experience with epack, personally I think it’s safe to assume the they don’t list the Top Secret minis as being available on epack because there’s no reason for them to essentially have a pack within a pack on that platform. Rather then the top secret mini envelope it’s easier just to scan the minis and insert them into packs without going through the extra legwork of doing the envelope as well.

[Marvel Card]

Originally Posted by finfangfan

Based on earlier poster saying economic principles of supply and demand don’t apply to trading cards (news to me!), you’d think Upper Deck would capitalize on this by making Wolverine the subject of all 100 base cards… why limit to 4 if supply/demand doesn’t apply? Lol

lol I’d like to live in a world where supply and demand doesn’t exist. I think some people just say crazy things to try and support baseless claims