[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Here's the exact math.


250 cards with a "Galactic" parallel
150 cards with a "Futura" parallel /25

I've seen probably 15 cases opened and all cases have had EXACTLY 2 Galactic and 2 Futura cards (1 per inner case).

So:

150 (cards with the Futura parallel) x 25 (Futura parallel numbering) = 3750 Futura cards in total

3750 (Futura print run) / 2 (Futura parallels per case) = 1875 cases



So the galactic would be:

2 (Galactic parallels per case) x 1875 cases (the case run based on Futura math) = 3750 Galactic parallels

3750 (cards with Galactic parallel) / 250 (total cards with a Galactic Parallel) = 15, the print run of each Galactic card


Here's the math with pack odds (showstopper parallel)


1875 cases x 16 boxes per case x 8 packs per box = 240,000 packs

240,000 packs / 1323 packs (odds of showstopper Galactic) = 181.40

181.40 (total showstopper galactics) / 12 (number of cards in the showstopper set) = 15.11

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

The exact math is done above but you are right and there are inconsistencies (when using Panini's pack odds)

Assuming each card has a print run of 15 (and I'm 99.99% sure that they do) here's what the breakdown would look like within each set:


Base Set (150 total cards x 15) = 2250 Galactics
New Wave (30 total cards x 15) = 450 Galactics
Rookie Revolution ( 25 total cards x 15) = 375 Galactics
Icons ( 33 total cards x 15) = 495 Galactics
Showstoppers ( 12 total cards x 15) = 180 Galactics

For a total of 3750 total Galactics, as referenced above.

If you reverse engineer the odds for each insert set (using the case run/pack run from above) you'll come out to this as well:

New Wave ( 1:528 packs):
240,000 / 528 (odds) = 454.54
454.54 / 30 (total cards in set) = 15.15

Rookie Revolution ( 1:632 packs):
240,000 / 632 (odds) = 379.74
379.74 / 25 (total cards in set) = 15.18

Icons ( 1:483 packs):
240,000 / 483 = 496.89
496.89 / 33 (total cards in set) = 15.05

Showstoppers ( 1:1323 packs):
240,000 / 1323 = 181.40
181.40 / 12 (total cards in set) = 15.11


Then you come to the Base Galactic

Base (1:288 packs):
240,000 / 288 = 833.33
833.33 / 150 (total cards in set) = 5.55

That doesn't make any sense whatsoever based on any observation of the case breaks. EVERY SINGLE MASTER CASE HAS 2 GALACTICS! There is 1 per inner case. If Panini's odds were real, then somebody should have opened a case (inner or master) without a Galactic, but I've yet to see it done.

I have no clue where the 288 number came from, but guaranteed the real odds of the Galactic Base is 1:96 packs. This would put it's print run at 15, and line up with pulling 2 Galactics per master case. I could show the math, although it's a lot more complicated, but in short the odds stated are for pulling a "certain" type (base or insert) of Galactic, not pulling "any" type Galactic.

If you open 8 boxes out of an inner case, you will be guaranteed 1 Galactic, 1 Futura, and 2 autos. So the actual odds of pulling "any" Galactic are exactly the same as pulling a Futura, even if the Futura has a higher print run.

TL;DR

Here's the math I did a while back.

There may be less just held back for replacements but according to the odds it's 15.