21-22 Donruss Elite FOTL
 

How the hell do we have this releasing already? Feels like we just had 20-21 Elite.

Any predictions for price? This was always my favorite rip of the year for value, scared to see what they do with it now.

It was on the Donruss Elite thread but I'm guessing 350-400. Better guess might come from phil or auctionjmm, they buy cases on release.

[QUOTE=yiguiri2002;17985255]It was on the Donruss Elite thread but I'm guessing 350-400. Better guess might come from phil or auctionjmm, they buy cases on release.[/QUOTE]

I'm checking out on Elite this year. Now that it is a proper mainstream release, it will never be the same as it was. The rookies could be #'d higher, odds longer on parallels, and I don't see any mention of Spellbounds inserts which were a huge value add the last two years. This might not even be worth $200. It will all depend on the checklist and then watching a few breaks at release to know how the distribution of parallels stacks up to the online release years.

[QUOTE=auctionjmm;17985312]I'm checking out on Elite this year. Now that it is a proper mainstream release, it will never be the same as it was. The rookies could be #'d higher, odds longer on parallels, and I don't see any mention of Spellbounds inserts which were a huge value add the last two years. This might not even be worth $200. It will all depend on the checklist and then watching a few breaks at release to know how the distribution of parallels stacks up to the online release years.[/QUOTE]

This is exactly what I was concerned about. Print run way up. Sigh, basically the last release I could justify.

There are so few hobby releases where you can have any fun ripping wax. Cost of entry is so high and the returns (either in cards you like or want to sell) are so paltry. I wish I had more card shows nearby so I could scratch the hunting itch by meticulously going through $1 and $5 boxes. eBay sniping isn’t quite the same. I want to rifle through the physical cards.

$700 down to $200

[QUOTE=auctionjmm;17985312]I'm checking out on Elite this year. Now that it is a proper mainstream release, it will never be the same as it was. The rookies could be #'d higher, odds longer on parallels, and I don't see any mention of Spellbounds inserts which were a huge value add the last two years. This might not even be worth $200. It will all depend on the checklist and then watching a few breaks at release to know how the distribution of parallels stacks up to the online release years.[/QUOTE]

I'm on the same boat. I might get one at 250 if it gets there, but I doubt it.

They've increased the print run and took out the Spellbounds. I think I'll rather have one box of Elite of either year than 2 from this release.

Ugh, why the lack of transparency, Panini???

21-22 Donruss Elite FOTL
 

Sigh, again no checklist before release panini… no idea what base rookies are #d to… no idea what all the parallels are going to be… no idea if the FOTL parallels replace the 2 rookies per box in hobby as some wording suggests.

So basically no idea what’s actually going to be in the box they want us to buy today.

Classico.

[QUOTE=bustsomewax;17985243]How the hell do we have this releasing already? Feels like we just had 20-21 Elite.

Any [B]predictions for price[/B]? This was always my favorite rip of the year for value, scared to see what they do with it now.[/QUOTE]

Hobby is presale at tree fiddy, so I'm gonna go out on a limb and say right around there.

As far as legitimate demand, the combination of expanding this to hobby and there being very little demand for 21/22 bball is probably not an ideal combination.

Looking at the responses from some posters, I feel like this is gonna fall to 300-350 with a chance to go under 300. Presale prices mean very little now, it's just a way to try to create a floor for FOTL.

[QUOTE=yiguiri2002;17986578]Looking at the responses from some posters, I feel like this is gonna fall to 300-350 with a chance to go under 300. Presale prices mean very little now, it's just a way to try to create a floor for FOTL.[/QUOTE]


It should drop under $300 assuming the big 3 and/or distributors haven't already bought the majority of the FOTL print run, which unfortunately they likely have.

Levels both sides of Hobby presell

387.50
366.67
345.83
325
304.17

“2021-22 Donruss Elite Basketball Hobby Box Break Average

2 Autographs
8 Parallels and 8 Inserts
2 Rookies
2021-22 Donruss Elite Basketball FOTL Box Break Average

2 Autographs
2 Exclusive Parallels (#/17 or #/3)
8 Additional Parallels
8 Inserts”

Everyone else reads this as FOTL parallels replacing the 2 rookies in hobby boxes right?

Last year this was 4 base cards per back with a 100 base card checklist. This year it is 7 base cards per pack. So there’s also concern that they might have blown up the checklist since we have no way to confirm even the number of cards in the set this year.

This might have been addressed elsewhere, but the mockups seem to suggest the Pen Pals will be on-card? That would be a little boost I would think.

[QUOTE=dcarado;17986660]This might have been addressed elsewhere, but the mockups seem to suggest the Pen Pals will be on-card? That would be a little boost I would think.[/QUOTE]

I highly, highly doubt they will be on-card. They never have been in previous years, I'm not sure why Panini would start putting in the effort now :rolleyes:

in at 200

cant even atc

[QUOTE=gopowergoh;17986803]cant even atc[/QUOTE]

you are doing something wrong then... it adds immediately

[QUOTE=Tonic3;17986770]I highly, highly doubt they will be on-card. They never have been in previous years, I'm not sure why Panini would start putting in the effort now :rolleyes:[/QUOTE]

this made me choke on my coffee :)!

[QUOTE=STLtoMN;17986833]you are doing something wrong then... it adds immediately[/QUOTE]

Created a new account and it added, I wonder what happened.. Did they flag my account or something

[QUOTE=gopowergoh;17986862]Created a new account and it added, I wonder what happened.. Did they flag my account or something[/QUOTE]

I had to reinstall the app on my phone. They did some kind of update at least a couple of months ago and I had been unable to use the app until yesterday.

hit some high traffic around 345, still there though

I was able to add to cart easily. My guess is it gets sold out as soon as it gets under 300.

someone can buy without this?
SORRY! WE ARE UNABLE TO PROCESS YOUR ORDER AT THIS TIME

Got boxes at $216 last year. Wasn’t FOTL but still..




Easily added to cart at $304. I think we might get close

Lol nevermind…. Gonzo

Sold out at $304.17..........oh well

Edit: None for me

damn... was about to lock in 3. ran into a checkout error

New CC so had to add that info. Of course it sells out in the extra 30 seconds that takes me

Good times

grabbed 1 at $304... was going to grab more if they got down to $250ish... oh well

Got 9 at $325 (presold) and somehow a case at $304.17, was only there a few seconds.

Got 1 at 325 and 1 at 304. Planned to buy 1 for each price it dropped if it continued.

Not happy about buying without any semblance of a checklist, so hope these have something decent in them.

I carted at $304 but didn’t pull the trigger



Not even mad. I’ll spend the money on a numbered LaMelo instead

[QUOTE=PSA2Pac;17987002]I carted at $304 but didn’t pull the trigger



Not even mad. I’ll spend the money on a numbered LaMelo instead[/QUOTE]

Same thing happened to me. I’ll wait and maybe pick up a hobby box if prices drop after release.

[QUOTE=bigjbasketball;17987012]Same thing happened to me. I’ll wait and maybe pick up a hobby box if prices drop after release.[/QUOTE]

For sure, guessing they will, especially/potentially after the checklist drops

I was probably going to jump in for a box or two at the next step, despite having told myself not to touch this one this year. So, blessing in disguise I suppose.

Unless this turns out to be a monster after all somehow (surprisingly).

Checklist up



[URL="https://www.beckett.com/news/2021-22-donruss-elite-basketball-cards/"]https://www.beckett.com/news/2021-22-donruss-elite-basketball-cards/[/URL]

Wow base rookies from /299 last year to /999 this year. Those printers are getting abused hard!

For those worried, Spellbound did not get eliminated - it's still there.

That checklist looks... bad.

No surprise they killed elite with /999 rookies, print run is going to be 4x or 5x last year.

Higher PR...double the vet set..and parallels galore including tmall versions...yep Elite is just another set now

21-22 Donruss Elite FOTL
 

Cons:

-Not just the increase from /299 to /999 for base rookies, but they doubled the base checklist from 100 to 200.
-some of those autos are brutally bad

Pros:

-spellbounds are actually back
-Thankfully it looks like they at least didn’t go crazy with the parallels


So estimated print run based on this is:

2500 FOTL
24,975 Hobby

Wow, 24,975 boxes if it’s 2 /999 RC’s per box (50 rc checklist). Up from 7,475 boxes last year with 2 RC’s #/299 per box. Yikes. Talk about a money grab and ruining a popular brand. So disappointed :(

Fwiw, as much as we hate the increase to /999, 2013 Donruss Elite base rookies were /999.

[QUOTE=JAMSC;17988028]Fwiw, as much as we hate the increase to /999, 2013 Donruss Elite base rookies were /999.[/QUOTE]



You mean the stuff that was $29.95/box on Black Friday 2014? :D

To their credit, at least they didn't include any LaMelo autos this year for people to redeem and then have to wait indefinitely to receive.

(Not bitter about my numerous outstanding redemptions... not at all...)

MEh, I’m just going to buy Mobley’s card as a single.

I love how the best thing about the release is that they kept the thing that gave it the most value and set a high floor.

Higher print run and way more insert parallels. I still think it's a decent buy at 300 but that's it.

[QUOTE=phil;17988036]You mean the stuff that was $29.95/box on Black Friday 2014? :D[/QUOTE]

Yep, I opened a case for not much more than these boxes are selling for. Crazy stuff.

[QUOTE=Deadpools Head;17988174]MEh, I’m just going to buy Mobley’s card as a single.[/QUOTE]

Smart man

The sad part is that even though the Spellbound inserts are still in the product, the production went up so much that they won't hold as much value as previous years. In the previous 2 years the spellbound inserts had a print run of right around 600 for each letter. With increased production I'm sure the print runs are over 2000 for each letter now. That's good if you're a set collector but bad for value if you're the one opening the box.

[QUOTE=Tonic3;17989129]The sad part is that even though the Spellbound inserts are still in the product, the production went up so much that they won't hold as much value as previous years. In the previous 2 years the spellbound inserts had a print run of right around 600 for each letter. With increased production I'm sure the print runs are over 2000 for each letter now. That's good if you're a set collector but bad for value if you're the one opening the box.[/QUOTE]


The other part of this is there are 220 different insert cards on the checklist this year vs 100 last year. So the print run likely went up some, but will also fall fewer per box. Last year spellbounds were 40% of the insert checklist and fell 2-3 per box on average. This year, they are less than 20% of the insert checklist, so I would expect only 1-2 per box.

[QUOTE=Tonic3;17989129]The sad part is that even though the Spellbound inserts are still in the product, the production went up so much that they won't hold as much value as previous years. In the previous 2 years the spellbound inserts had a print run of right around 600 for each letter. With increased production I'm sure the print runs are over 2000 for each letter now. That's good if you're a set collector but bad for value if you're the one opening the box.[/QUOTE]

No problem! There are tons of parallels for them so the print run would probably be only 1500!

Ok, it's bugging me trying to figure out the print run on inserts. Here's what I've come up with. This is the list of inserts (not including the short printed lenticular cards) and the number of subjects:

Clarity - 30
Deck - 30
Glass Cleaners - 10
Impact Impressions - 60
Power Formulas - 30
Primary Colors - 10
Prime Numbers - 10
Spellbound - 40
Star Status - 20
Title Waves - 20

Total inserts - 260

Total hobby boxes = 24,975 (I'm sure this doesn't include "Asia" boxes)
Total un-numbered inserts = 24,975 x 8 = 199,800
Print run of inserts (assuming equal distribution) = 199,800/260 = 768

Of course the Asia boxes probably contain the same inserts so that adds to the print run but until more info is released on that format it's hard to predict anything. And lenticular sp inserts would subtract from the 768 but likely not as much as the Asia boxes will add. All in all, I'd predict at least 1000 print run for each insert, but that's just my best guess at this point :)!

Oh, and with only 40 Spellbounds and 260 inserts....that means Spellbounds will come out at approximately 1.23/box (or around 1/box). Previous years they fell at least 3/box :cool:

[QUOTE=Tonic3;17989768]Ok, it's bugging me trying to figure out the print run on inserts. Here's what I've come up with. This is the list of inserts (not including the short printed lenticular cards) and the number of subjects:

Clarity - 30
Deck - 30
Glass Cleaners - 10
Impact Impressions - 60
Power Formulas - 30
Primary Colors - 10
Prime Numbers - 10
Spellbound - 40
Star Status - 20
Title Waves - 20

Total inserts - 260

Total hobby boxes = 24,975 (I'm sure this doesn't include "Asia" boxes)
Total un-numbered inserts = 24,975 x 8 = 199,800
Print run of inserts (assuming equal distribution) = 199,800/260 = 768

Of course the Asia boxes probably contain the same inserts so that adds to the print run but until more info is released on that format it's hard to predict anything. And lenticular sp inserts would subtract from the 768 but likely not as much as the Asia boxes will add. All in all, I'd predict at least 1000 print run for each insert, but that's just my best guess at this point :)!

Oh, and with only 40 Spellbounds and 260 inserts....that means Spellbounds will come out at approximately 1.23/box (or around 1/box). Previous years they fell 3/box :cool:[/QUOTE]


Impact Impressions are autos, so remove those. Add 15 for Dimensions, 10 for next up, and 5 for Past & Present. So 230 total. My initial 220 was because I had Title Waves as 10 instead of 20. I believe 230 should be correct now.

[QUOTE=JAMSC;17989793]Impact Impressions are autos, so remove those. Add 15 for Dimensions, 10 for next up, and 5 for Past & Present. So 230 total. My initial 220 was because I had Title Waves as 10 instead of 20. I believe 230 should be correct now.[/QUOTE]

Ah, I didn't know Impact Impressions were autos.

I didn't include Dimensions, Next Up, and Past and Present because they're "SP". But the calculations with and without including SP inserts is below:

Print run of inserts (not including SP's) = 199,800/200 = 999
Print run of inserts (including SP's) = 199,800/230 = 869

So it's probably around 950 for the non-SP's. But that's not including the additional print run for the "Asia" skew. So PR is likely well north of 1000 for each insert.

Do we know none of this are in Retail? I can't remember the last time Panini had over 200+ inserts that were Hobby exclusive.

[QUOTE=yiguiri2002;17989839]Do we know none of this are in Retail? I can't remember the last time Panini had over 200+ inserts that were Hobby exclusive.[/QUOTE]

is there a retail of this?!?! historically only hobby

[QUOTE=Allamericancard;17990399]is there a retail of this?!?! historically only hobby[/QUOTE]


Yes there will be Retail this year… panini is losing their license in a few years and you bet your butt they are going to print as much and ruin this hobby as much as they can before they leave… they’re not gonna give 2 craps about anything once they’re out… they’ll let fanatics deal with it


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[QUOTE=packfan15412;17990470]Yes there will be Retail this year… panini is losing their license in a few years and you bet your butt they are going to print as much and ruin this hobby as much as they can before they leave… they’re not gonna give 2 craps about anything once they’re out… they’ll let fanatics deal with it


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]

Looks like they will do a TMall and Lucky Envelopes release, but I don’t see any parallels on the checklist that look like they will be available in a retail SKU.

[QUOTE=packfan15412;17990470] panini is losing their license in a few years and you bet your butt they are going to print as much as they can before they leave… they’re not gonna give 2 craps about anything once they’re out

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]

I love how this is the narrative I've seen so many people have lately.

I remember having this exact conversation so many times with a buddy of mine a year or so back.

I was convinced execs knew they were going to lose their license and that was at least partially why they were doing a lot of what they were doing. Was the only thing that made sense to me.

Wish I could have put a future in on that lol.

[QUOTE=packfan15412;17990470]Yes there will be Retail this year… panini is losing their license in a few years and you bet your butt they are going to print as much and ruin this hobby as much as they can before they leave… they’re not gonna give 2 craps about anything once they’re out… they’ll let fanatics deal with it


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]
I share the same concern. I am hopefully however that supply chains and inventory management are a little more robust nowadays vs 1990 and that the overprinting won't be as bad and won't last as long. No hobby shop can afford to tie up and go underwater on too many hobby boxes, so they will cut back on orders if things go unsold. Likewise Target and Walmart won't want to sit on a bunch of unsold inventory either, or consistently sell at a loss, and they will have the mechanisms to track that. Already Chronicles and Topps Chrome update are just sitting on Target's website for week after week. So I'm hopeful that Panini's efforts to overprint won't go on for more than a year or two. If it runs the whole flipping thing out of business, it might be worth it.

[QUOTE=detroitbball;17991111]I share the same concern. I am hopefully however that supply chains and inventory management are a little more robust nowadays vs 1990 and that the overprinting won't be as bad and won't last as long. No hobby shop can afford to tie up and go underwater on too many hobby boxes, so they will cut back on orders if things go unsold. Likewise Target and Walmart won't want to sit on a bunch of unsold inventory either, or consistently sell at a loss, and they will have the mechanisms to track that. Already Chronicles and Topps Chrome update are just sitting on Target's website for week after week. So I'm hopeful that Panini's efforts to overprint won't go on for more than a year or two. If it runs the whole flipping thing out of business, it might be worth it.[/QUOTE]


Hobby shops get allocation at cheap and make a killing and Walmart/target don’t actually make the money or loss on retail cards…. They simply just let excel and mj holdings rent out space on their shelves to sell items…


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I like the look of these. Is it just me or is there some PMG style simplicity here in reference? It's a nice fresh look for Elite this year, despite more printing of the release in general.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/vRWKK33l.png[/img]

[QUOTE=90skid;18006965]I like the look of these. Is it just me or is there some PMG style simplicity here in reference? It's a nice fresh look for Elite this year, despite more printing of the release in general.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/vRWKK33l.png[/img][/QUOTE]


I agree. Some really sharp looking cards. (Not mine)

[IMG]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220217/16d2301ba3d260ad86d760ae199c9680.jpg[/IMG]
[IMG]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220217/4f7e07806d2a56aebb73dc3fbe78de68.jpg[/IMG]


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man that /999 is sad.

I love that the Pen Pal autos are on-card. On one hand, it’s great that they didn’t use stickers for those, but on the other hand, it’s kinda sad that I’m this excited about seeing just one on-card auto set on a $350+ hobby box. At that price, everything should be on-card.

These cards look great. Excited for my two FOTL boxes to arrive.

[QUOTE=rifleman69;18007260]man that /999 is sad.[/QUOTE]

2020-21 currently feels very much like a repeat of 1999-00...just with box prices at 10 x the price! :eek:

Opened a box today and I only pulled one autograph and the two bronze parallels are unnumbered...

[QUOTE=finitefinds;18008442]Opened a box today and I only pulled one autograph and the two bronze parallels are unnumbered...[/QUOTE]

Wait, what? The Bronze FOTL parallels weren't numbered? If so, that's a BIG screw up by Panini if that holds true.

I’m seeing bronzes on eBay already and they are all numbered. Can you post a picture of your unnumbered ones?

[QUOTE=JAMSC;18008579]I’m seeing bronzes on eBay already and they are all numbered. Can you post a picture of your unnumbered ones?[/QUOTE]

My guess is they're confusing orange with bronze. Orange are unnumbered.

They are definitely numbered /17. From Packman's box opening:

[IMG]https://i.ibb.co/5GFG7pQ/Capture.jpg[/IMG]