Which batter will benefit the most from MLB's shift ban?

jjrpilot · 01-31-2023, 12:42 PM

I think we'll see BA's go up all around, but who will benefit the most from the ban?

griffan15 · 01-31-2023, 12:44 PM

Bryce Harper

pewe · 01-31-2023, 12:52 PM

I believe some work done by the likes of Fangraphs suggest that even for the most impacted players that they may only get like 10 more hits in a season. And the downside is they may also walk less, so the actual impact on OBP and OPS might be more modest still.

So we may get some .240 batters hitting .255... but this probably won't mint a bunch of .300 batters (or even .290) that didn't exist before...

PunsRTonsOfFun · 01-31-2023, 12:55 PM

Corey Seager

Scottie B actually did an excellent video on this using StatCast data on Baseball Savant.

Skipscards · 01-31-2023, 12:55 PM

Joey Gallo

Chris Lyle · 01-31-2023, 12:57 PM

Jose Ramirez I may be a homer, but I think he will benefit by quite a bit. He started hitting the ball up the middle like 50% more but with the shift then someone was right behind 2nd to take a hit away. Now they won't be there or will have to get to the ball and obviously if he does pull the ball he won't be hitting into the shift.

SupermanBrandon · 01-31-2023, 12:59 PM

Great left handed hitters will get that much better. I think someone like Freeman will see a nice bump.

Boo · 01-31-2023, 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skipscards

Joey Gallo

Did he learn to make contact?

fulltritty · 01-31-2023, 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boo

Did he learn to make contact?

Triple B · 01-31-2023, 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skipscards

Joey Gallo

He was the one crying loudest about the shift. Can’t wait to see how he lights up MLB this season.

fulltritty · 01-31-2023, 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Triple B

He was the one crying loudest about the shift. Can’t wait to see how he lights up MLB this season.

Probably as well as all of those home runs he hit to right field in Yankee Stadium.

pewe · 01-31-2023, 01:28 PM

BTW here is the statcast article on it: https://www.mlb.com/news/hitters-lik...d-by-shift-ban

Max benefit is +12 hits over a full season to Schwarber and Santana... this will essentially take a .200 batter to .220...

This will be one of the changes that the impact is going to be hard to see without looking at the stats

LVDan · 01-31-2023, 01:28 PM

The obvious answer is all lefty pull guys, so what, that’s probably 20% of the hitters in the game?
My bigger question is what kind of effect combined with the new pitch clock and bigger bases(?) that these changes might have on baseline BAs, runs scored and ERAs around the league?

johnlocke36 · 01-31-2023, 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skipscards

Joey Gallo

this is probably the answer but its not because of the actual shift itself, like others have mentioned mayhee it turns a .240 hitter into a .242 hitter

but there are gonna be some hitters whose mechanics/approach/mental game has bene so #@#@#@#@ed up from the shift it turned them from avg/bad hitters to just flat out horrible. So maybee they go up to the plate with a better approach a little more confidence and can go from a .190 hitter to a .235 hitter

thenightman · 01-31-2023, 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PunsRTonsOfFun

Corey Seager

Scottie B actually did an excellent video on this using StatCast data on Baseball Savant.

He was the first person I thought of. I definitely think he's a top-5 AL MVP candidate. If he can translate the shift-ban into more hits and walks, he's right up there.

JRX · 01-31-2023, 01:37 PM

The biggest beneficiaries will be the fans who no longer have to sit there watching 8 guys on one side of the field and screaming at the batter to bunt it the other way.

UCCF · 01-31-2023, 01:45 PM

Before this comes to fruition, I want to see if the rumored discussions of teams playing 5 infielders and 2 outfielders in place of the shift happen. Apparently that's not against the rules, and sticking your OF in left center and right center with a 3rd OF playing that deep 2nd base position could negate some of the perceived benefits of losing the shift.

It's not like Joey Gallo is hitting a lot of lazy fly balls to left field that aren't going to be tracked down. It's the same as bunting against the shift - even if people could do it, they weren't doing it.

Skipscards · 01-31-2023, 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JRX

The biggest beneficiaries will be the fans who no longer have to sit there watching 8 guys on one side of the field and screaming at the batter to bunt it the other way.

I think the opposite will happen. This will simply encourage teams to sign more boring baseball players like Joey Gallo.

imwonderboy · 01-31-2023, 01:49 PM

Rowdy Tellez - teams shifted against him 78% of the time. He should see a bump in his average.

Silent George · 01-31-2023, 01:49 PM

Seager, especially considering the base changes.

Merkle14 · 01-31-2023, 01:54 PM

Pujols would've maintained way better than he did. Shift really hurt his numbers as analytics got more and more popular.

rfgilles · 01-31-2023, 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pewe

I believe some work done by the likes of Fangraphs suggest that even for the most impacted players that they may only get like 10 more hits in a season. And the downside is they may also walk less, so the actual impact on OBP and OPS might be more modest still.

So we may get some .240 batters hitting .255... but this probably won't mint a bunch of .300 batters (or even .290) that didn't exist before...

Why would they walk less?

SupermanBrandon · 01-31-2023, 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JRX

The biggest beneficiaries will be the fans who no longer have to sit there watching 8 guys on one side of the field and screaming at the batter to bunt it the other way.

I will never understand why guys weren't taking automatic singles (some could've been doubles). A couple extra hits a weeks can raise your average and your on base percentage significantly. A child can learn to bunt...a major leaguer can to if you let your ego go out the window.

johnlocke36 · 01-31-2023, 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

I will never understand why guys weren't taking automatic singles (some could've been doubles). A couple extra hits a weeks can raise your average and your on base percentage significantly. A child can learn to bunt...a major leaguer can to if you let your ego go out the window.

how do you get an automatic single against a 101 mph sinker? I tried to bunt vs 98 one time, it was hard... a child could not do it

JRX · 01-31-2023, 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

I will never understand why guys weren't taking automatic singles (some could've been doubles). A couple extra hits a weeks can raise your average and your on base percentage significantly. A child can learn to bunt...a major leaguer can to if you let your ego go out the window.

Same reason why Shaq wouldn't shoot underhand at the free throw line. If he practiced that he would have been literally unstoppable.

01-31-2023, 12:42 PM	#1
jjrpilot Member Join Date: Oct 2019 Location: USA Posts: 2,305	Which batter will benefit the most from MLB's shift ban? I think we'll see BA's go up all around, but who will benefit the most from the ban? __________________ PC: Ichiro - Mahomes - Soto

01-31-2023, 12:55 PM	#4
PunsRTonsOfFun Member Join Date: Jun 2021 Location: Wisconsin Posts: 158	Corey Seager Scottie B actually did an excellent video on this using StatCast data on Baseball Savant. Last edited by PunsRTonsOfFun; 01-31-2023 at 01:08 PM.

01-31-2023, 12:55 PM	#5
Skipscards Member Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: In Tribute To The Great Ryno Posts: 30,218 jlankf2 jmp4	Joey Gallo __________________ Go Royals!! #RoyalsIn2015 <---It Happened!! #TEAMZinck Sometimes it is astounding that we are able to persist in a world so full of morons.

01-31-2023, 12:57 PM	#6
Chris Lyle Member Join Date: Apr 2017 Location: OHIO Posts: 10,413 teddys1son cmlyle07	Jose Ramirez I may be a homer, but I think he will benefit by quite a bit. He started hitting the ball up the middle like 50% more but with the shift then someone was right behind 2nd to take a hit away. Now they won't be there or will have to get to the ball and obviously if he does pull the ball he won't be hitting into the shift. __________________ Always looking for Guardians/Indians for the PC. Buckeyes and Buccaneers are PC also

01-31-2023, 01:28 PM	#13
LVDan Member Join Date: Jun 2017 Posts: 17,590	The obvious answer is all lefty pull guys, so what, that’s probably 20% of the hitters in the game? My bigger question is what kind of effect combined with the new pitch clock and bigger bases(?) that these changes might have on baseline BAs, runs scored and ERAs around the league? __________________ So we cheated and we lied and we tested. And we never failed to fail; it was the easiest thing to do.

01-31-2023, 12:44 PM	#2
griffan15 Member Join Date: Feb 2011 Location: Sterling, VA Posts: 7,533 griffan15	Bryce Harper

01-31-2023, 12:52 PM	#3
pewe Member Join Date: Sep 2018 Posts: 26,641	I believe some work done by the likes of Fangraphs suggest that even for the most impacted players that they may only get like 10 more hits in a season. And the downside is they may also walk less, so the actual impact on OBP and OPS might be more modest still. So we may get some .240 batters hitting .255... but this probably won't mint a bunch of .300 batters (or even .290) that didn't exist before...

01-31-2023, 12:59 PM	#7
SupermanBrandon Banned Join Date: Dec 2018 Location: TN Posts: 15,843	Great left handed hitters will get that much better. I think someone like Freeman will see a nice bump.

01-31-2023, 01:37 PM	#16
JRX Member Join Date: May 2020 Location: Charlotte, NC Posts: 15,940	The biggest beneficiaries will be the fans who no longer have to sit there watching 8 guys on one side of the field and screaming at the batter to bunt it the other way.

01-31-2023, 01:45 PM	#17
UCCF Member Join Date: Feb 2019 Location: San Francisco Posts: 1,181 UCCF	Before this comes to fruition, I want to see if the rumored discussions of teams playing 5 infielders and 2 outfielders in place of the shift happen. Apparently that's not against the rules, and sticking your OF in left center and right center with a 3rd OF playing that deep 2nd base position could negate some of the perceived benefits of losing the shift. It's not like Joey Gallo is hitting a lot of lazy fly balls to left field that aren't going to be tracked down. It's the same as bunting against the shift - even if people could do it, they weren't doing it. __________________ I (still) want your Rizzos

01-31-2023, 01:49 PM	#19
imwonderboy Member Join Date: Jan 2015 Location: New England Posts: 1,033 imwonderboy imwonderboy	Rowdy Tellez - teams shifted against him 78% of the time. He should see a bump in his average. Last edited by imwonderboy; 01-31-2023 at 01:52 PM.

01-31-2023, 01:49 PM	#20
Silent George Member Join Date: Jun 2021 Posts: 3,147	Seager, especially considering the base changes.

01-31-2023, 01:54 PM	#21
Merkle14 Member Join Date: Jan 2021 Location: Virginia Posts: 702	Pujols would've maintained way better than he did. Shift really hurt his numbers as analytics got more and more popular.