Patrick Mahomes Prices

[Westwave]

It's all luck with a dash of timing. Anyone claiming different is straight up lying to you.

[Jay9Suited]

Originally Posted by jjrpilot

One of my buddies that collects Mahomes as well told me the other day: "You know none of those guys that bought and sold the big cards aren't any smarter than anyone else. It was just luck."

That's what makes this hobby great though. It really is dumb luck. Mahomes could have easily NOT been great too.

I'm happy for ALL users who have made anything on Mahomes!!!

In the end, it's smart not to have all your eggs in one basket. I haven't purchased a Mahomes rookie in some time...I've been chasing other nice cards to help balance out my Mahomes collection.

You could have bought Mahomes after his MVP season or after his SB victory when it was clear he was going to be a great player and still be up a crazy percentage.

[jjrpilot]

Originally Posted by Jay9Suited

You could have bought Mahomes after his MVP season or after his SB victory when it was clear he was going to be a great player and still be up a crazy percentage.

Absolutely. My first Mahomes was a Red/Yellow Optic PSA 10 that I bought the morning of the Super Bowl. Paid 380 for it? Sold it weeks later for 735? Then used that money to get an XRC for about 1K lol.

And I thought I was late to the party lol

[jjrpilot]

Originally Posted by Westwave

It's all luck with a dash of timing. Anyone claiming different is straight up lying to you.

Agreed. This isn't a knock on some of the big card holders though! They were just at the right time at the right price etc.

Mahomes is kind of a phenomenon though. Look at all the people pumping money into Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson etc... Heck for that money they could have purchased a nice Mahomes rookie etc.

The days of "prospecting" are over for the most part. Now everyone grabs up a little of everyone hoping that one of them becomes the next Mahomes or Brady etc.

It's so much easier to prospect in baseball as there are so many to choose from.

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by Westwave

Absolutely love it. Hope the people sitting on cards of his do the right thing before they become suicidal.

Originally Posted by Westwave

So much anxiety masqueraded as confidence in this post over the last 24 hours. It's ok to be nervous to be sitting on a collection that may be worth half or less over the next year. No one is going to fault any of you if you sell now. History has proven pride has cost men a lot over the course of time.

Originally Posted by Westwave

Yes no one will want to face a road team with a horrible defence and a shaky at best O-Line at home in the playoffs.

Originally Posted by Westwave

It's all luck with a dash of timing. Anyone claiming different is straight up lying to you.

Aren't you just a ray of sunshine!

[pete2345]

Stop putting Mahommes in the same sentence as Brady it's embarrassing. Brady is a Goat Mahommes is average.

[Derekbauer]

Originally Posted by jjrpilot

One of my buddies that collects Mahomes as well told me the other day: "You know none of those guys that bought and sold the big cards aren't any smarter than anyone else. It was just luck."

That's what makes this hobby great though. It really is dumb luck. Mahomes could have easily NOT been great too.

I'm happy for ALL users who have made anything on Mahomes!!!

In the end, it's smart not to have all your eggs in one basket. I haven't purchased a Mahomes rookie in some time...I've been chasing other nice cards to help balance out my Mahomes collection.

Originally Posted by jjrpilot

Absolutely. My first Mahomes was a Red/Yellow Optic PSA 10 that I bought the morning of the Super Bowl. Paid 380 for it? Sold it weeks later for 735? Then used that money to get an XRC for about 1K lol.

And I thought I was late to the party lol

There’s a difference between “the big cards” and a red/yellow optic.

The guys who paid 1000s in 2017 for singles are not lucky. We’re talking about 6 and 7 figure cards.

Paying 3-5K for a Mahomes in 2017 was a true investment gamble.

Paying 380 morning of the super bowl is a low risk play.

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by pete2345

Stop putting Mahommes in the same sentence as Brady it's embarrassing. Brady is a Goat Mahommes is average.

Can't imagine wasting my time to go post in the thread of an average qb I don't like. You do you though.

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

Aren't you just a ray of sunshine!

You quoted another of my recent blocks lol.

I mean really, who joins a sports card message board in 2021? Like bruh, did you even LISTEN to Gary Vee in 2019 lol

[tennelson55]

I'm not sure if this was brought up; but since Andy Ried's son crashed into and comatised that young girl the team hasn't been the same. The defense is lacking and I'm not sure if his son really comprised that defense, but since he has been out/Ried also taking an emotional toll, the team doesn't look the same. The defense hasn't looked good and the turnovers are myriad.

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

You quoted another of my recent blocks lol.

I mean really, who joins a sports card message board in 2021? Like bruh, did you even LISTEN to Gary Vee in 2019 lol

Lol. He just made my list as well.

[MFaulkCollector]

Originally Posted by BosPats1980

I disagree with your friend. I feel like it’s actually doing research and using your own knowledge of the sport and industry that helps make great plays. I was in huge on DeShaun Watson early owning several NTs and more than half of the championship tickets made. They were priced similarly at release but I didn’t know anything about Mahomes. Watson just won a national championship. As time went on and as Mahomes clearly separated himself from the rest of the NFL I just kept waiting for Watson to become Mahomes. He clearly wasn’t able to do so. It was in November of 2019 that I sold every one of my Watson cards, checked my ego at the door, and started buying Mahomes stuff when he got hurt and his cards took a dip, even though his prices were already “too high”. Instead of getting the prospect and hoping he’d be the best I realized it was better to just buy the best. I don’t feel like that’s luck. I feel like people create their own paths and you need to take responsibility for it whether it works out or doesn’t.

[QUOTE=jjrpilot;17745885]One of my buddies that collects Mahomes as well told me the other day: "You know none of those guys that bought and sold the big cards aren't any smarter than anyone else. It was just luck."

That's what makes this hobby great though. It really is dumb luck. Mahomes could have easily NOT been great too.

I'm happy for ALL users who have made anything on Mahomes!!!

In the end, it's smart not to have all your eggs in one basket. I haven't purchased a Mahomes rookie in some time...I've been chasing other nice cards to help balance out my Mahomes collection.

[/QUOTE]

It's a half and half statement...... people who bulked up on Mahomes in 17 were relatively lucky but team and coaching staff had already seen a lot of recent success before Mahomes........ it made sense to buy Mahomes...... I'm sure the crowd who bought Rodgers in 06/07 saw Mahomes as a worth while risk.

Those who bought Mahomes in the midst of his 50 TD pass season or during the superbowl run weren't lucky... they had seen the guy perform and acted accordingly.

And if we really want to split hairs on luck.......... I'd like to know who predicted the entire industry would explode in the midst of something that should have/could have caused a worldwide economic collapse. This particular time from of late 2019 through now is the most bizarre thing to ever happen for those dealing in collectibles (at least that's my opinion)

[Westwave]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

You quoted another of my recent blocks lol.

I mean really, who joins a sports card message board in 2021? Like bruh, did you even LISTEN to Gary Vee in 2019 lol

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

Lol. He just made my list as well.

How will I ever survive.....

[TSonn]

Originally Posted by MFaulkCollector

It's a half and half statement...... people who bulked up on Mahomes in 17 were relatively lucky but team and coaching staff had already seen a lot of recent success before Mahomes........ it made sense to buy Mahomes...... I'm sure the crowd who bought Rodgers in 06/07 saw Mahomes as a worth while risk.

Those who bought Mahomes in the midst of his 50 TD pass season or during the superbowl run weren't lucky... they had seen the guy perform and acted accordingly.

And if we really want to split hairs on luck.......... I'd like to know who predicted the entire industry would explode in the midst of something that should have/could have caused a worldwide economic collapse. This particular time from of late 2019 through now is the most bizarre thing to ever happen for those dealing in collectibles (at least that's my opinion)

I was a Chiefs fan in 2009-2011 when I went to grad school just outside of KC but didn't really pay attention to them much until Mahomes was drafted. I had friends from MO/KS texting me who went to 2017 training camp that Mahomes was lighting it up and they were super pumped about him even though they had Alex Smith.

Now, I know a lot of fanbases get overly excited about rookie QB play in training camp, but it seemed different with Mahomes and it turns out it was. I didn't get back into cards until 2018 so I couldn't jump at the opportunity when hearing about it - but that wouldn't have been lucky. Just like it wasn't lucky that when I got back into the hobby in 2018 that I immediately collected Mahomes, Luka, and Trae. There were no other young QBs that I wanted to collect. Some athletes are different and some people can see it right away, others need proof. I'd argue we have both with Mahomes at this point.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

You quoted another of my recent blocks lol.

I mean really, who joins a sports card message board in 2021? Like bruh, did you even LISTEN to Gary Vee in 2019 lol

This mage me laugh

If you go to the National in 2022 I have to hang out with you and those back pages and share some good conversation over a few cocktails.

[blackbears86]

Watching NFL live on ESPN and you'd think the Chiefs were 0-7.

[MFaulkCollector]

Originally Posted by TSonn

I was a Chiefs fan in 2009-2011 when I went to grad school just outside of KC but didn't really pay attention to them much until Mahomes was drafted. I had friends from MO/KS texting me who went to 2017 training camp that Mahomes was lighting it up and they were super pumped about him even though they had Alex Smith.

Now, I know a lot of fanbases get overly excited about rookie QB play in training camp, but it seemed different with Mahomes and it turns out it was. I didn't get back into cards until 2018 so I couldn't jump at the opportunity when hearing about it - but that wouldn't have been lucky. Just like it wasn't lucky that when I got back into the hobby in 2018 that I immediately collected Mahomes, Luka, and Trae. There were no other young QBs that I wanted to collect. Some athletes are different and some people can see it right away, others need proof. I'd argue we have both with Mahomes at this point.

No doubt about it, there are definitely both types of collectors who have done very well......... I am pretty much risk averse across the board so RC's early on aren't my cup of tea. In my mind it's way easier to buy a great established player through a dip than to go balls to the wall on one guy really early or try to decipher which of 8-10 possible guys will be great when it may be 0 of them.

I like rare sets and inserts, and within the past week or two I have jumped into the Mahomes realm a bit. Some select and optic golds /10 from insert sets have finished under 500 recently and to me that risk is worth while. Even in the worst scenario where he flames out and has a 7-8 year career; he has an MVP, SB, and SB MVP already... and the fan base there will love him and appreciate him no matter what at this point. As golds /10 from chrome style products through the panini era continue to gain steam...... I just can't see a scenario where some of these cards could be trouble. I can easily see scenarios where RC's with high prints runs slash 50-70 percent if he continues to struggle.

As with everything in this hobby (Brady excluded, buy all Brady lol), it's as much about the particular card and set as it is about the player

[SleeperCards]

Originally Posted by MFaulkCollector

I like rare sets and inserts, and within the past week or two I have jumped into the Mahomes realm a bit.

Better late than never

[seth2720]

With the awful start for Mahomes now may be a good time to buy. Or soon if they keep going down hill. Buy the dip? lol

[ovrcollect]

Love the comparison to Manning in terms of early success and great stats. You could probably also use Russell Wilson: 1-1 in Super Bowls before the age of 26.

In terms of expectations, etc, you could add Rodgers and Brees too, but they didn't win until somewhere year 6-8 (same with Manning, actually.)

Amazing that 3 of the 4 guys I mentioned only have 1 ring and Peyton's second was really more of a "Trent Dilfer on the 2000 Ravens" type of ring.

Mahomes has been absolutely obliterated the last 10 games or so. Toe, Concussions, etc etc. Taking the hits he's taking trying to make things happen will really take a toll on him. Contorting his body to get a throw off while he's going down to the ground is an amazing thing to see, but it's resulted in a few picks this season, and more recently, another concussion. He has to play with the realization that his line is trash and protect himself. He's young, so there's plenty of time for him to learn to play smarter. Hopefully they get him a better line in the meantime.

One more thing I've noticed is he can tend to drop back too far on some passes, allowing the DE's to have a more straight line to him. I think he does this buy time for receivers to get further downfield. He's got an insane arm that he wants to show off, but if Tyreek isn't open, he's gonna need a good possession type receiver and throw to them when needed. Maybe Tampa Bay set the blueprint for taking away the big passes he likes?

Interesting stat:

Tyreek's yds per catch in '18, '19, '20, '21: 17.0, 14.8, 14.7, 12.3

Mahomes yds per attempt in '18, '19, '20, '21: 8.8, 8.3, 8.1, 7.6

[EBCollectibles]

Originally Posted by ovrcollect

Love the comparison to Manning in terms of early success and great stats. You could probably also use Russell Wilson: 1-1 in Super Bowls before the age of 26.

In terms of expectations, etc, you could add Rodgers and Brees too, but they didn't win until somewhere year 6-8 (same with Manning, actually.)

Amazing that 3 of the 4 guys I mentioned only have 1 ring and Peyton's second was really more of a "Trent Dilfer on the 2000 Ravens" type of ring.

Mahomes has been absolutely obliterated the last 10 games or so. Toe, Concussions, etc etc. Taking the hits he's taking trying to make things happen will really take a toll on him. Contorting his body to get a throw off while he's going down to the ground is an amazing thing to see, but it's resulted in a few picks this season, and more recently, another concussion. He has to play with the realization that his line is trash and protect himself. He's young, so there's plenty of time for him to learn to play smarter. Hopefully they get him a better line in the meantime.

One more thing I've noticed is he can tend to drop back too far on some passes, allowing the DE's to have a more straight line to him. I think he does this buy time for receivers to get further downfield. He's got an insane arm that he wants to show off, but if Tyreek isn't open, he's gonna need a good possession type receiver and throw to them when needed. Maybe Tampa Bay set the blueprint for taking away the big passes he likes?

Interesting stat:

Tyreek's yds per catch in '18, '19, '20, '21: 17.0, 14.8, 14.7, 12.3

Mahomes yds per attempt in '18, '19, '20, '21: 8.8, 8.3, 8.1, 7.6

Geez don't say that in this thread. You may offend some of the Mahomie Attics in here. They are thin skinned or taking a beating on their Mahomes collection.

[MFaulkCollector]

Originally Posted by ovrcollect

Love the comparison to Manning in terms of early success and great stats. You could probably also use Russell Wilson: 1-1 in Super Bowls before the age of 26.

In terms of expectations, etc, you could add Rodgers and Brees too, but they didn't win until somewhere year 6-8 (same with Manning, actually.)

Amazing that 3 of the 4 guys I mentioned only have 1 ring and Peyton's second was really more of a "Trent Dilfer on the 2000 Ravens" type of ring.

Mahomes has been absolutely obliterated the last 10 games or so. Toe, Concussions, etc etc. Taking the hits he's taking trying to make things happen will really take a toll on him. Contorting his body to get a throw off while he's going down to the ground is an amazing thing to see, but it's resulted in a few picks this season, and more recently, another concussion. He has to play with the realization that his line is trash and protect himself. He's young, so there's plenty of time for him to learn to play smarter. Hopefully they get him a better line in the meantime.

One more thing I've noticed is he can tend to drop back too far on some passes, allowing the DE's to have a more straight line to him. I think he does this buy time for receivers to get further downfield. He's got an insane arm that he wants to show off, but if Tyreek isn't open, he's gonna need a good possession type receiver and throw to them when needed. Maybe Tampa Bay set the blueprint for taking away the big passes he likes?

Interesting stat:

Tyreek's yds per catch in '18, '19, '20, '21: 17.0, 14.8, 14.7, 12.3

Mahomes yds per attempt in '18, '19, '20, '21: 8.8, 8.3, 8.1, 7.6

Manning and Wilson are poor comps, Brees as well... It took Manning 8 years to play in a super bowl and he had at least 3 very tough seasons early on in is career. Wilson was a shell of himself in 12-14 compared to what he developing into; not to mention the defense and running game was the perceived reason they nearly built a dynasty. Brees was okay for one season early on and really good for another before an injury almost ended his career; not to mention a replacement was drafted for him in year 3. It took 6 years to get to NO and make a playoff run. Mahomes is unique because of how fast and effortless the success was. From 50 TD passes and MVP to SB Champion and MVP all within 2 years. The hysteria and dominance early on both individually and team wise really hasn't ever been seen

I would throw out the following reasonable comps... Dan Marino turned the NFL over in his first 3 years as a full time starter with never before seen aerial stats/records and an MVP....He was a three time first team all pro each of those years....... He wasn't able to get a chip in that window and in the 13 years after that he made just 5 pro bowls and never really had another shot to reach the pinnacle team wise. Maybe Mahomes longevity follows this path

Aaron Rodgers sat for a period that was longer than Mahomes... but when he finally saw the field Rodgers had major success early. Within his first 4 years Rodgers had his SB, SB MVP, and an MVP in which he had the best statistical season in NFL history. The hysteria around what he was going to become after the 2011 regular season was insane. As the years passed the defense wasn't as good and they ran up against a lot of good teams; they also lost some games they should have won. Rodgers continued to play great and won multiple more MVPs...... yet it's very much unlikely that he wins another super bowl. Maybe Mahomes career path follows this.

Kurt Warner set the NFL on absolute fire when he stepped in... although a bizarre road to getting on the field.. in his first 3 seasons as a starter he won two MVPs, won a SB and was the MVP, played in a second super bowl, led the league in pretty much everything. Then things fell apart for him and he didn't play much, kicked around as a backup, then found success later on and managed to nearly win another ring. Maybe Mahomes career will follow this path

The point being.... when you open up like Mahomes did you are immediately compared to the very best to ever play and over time the comparisons are likely a let down. If Marino/Rodgers/Warner got their early accolades at a later time they may have been perceived differently

Winning just 1 MVP and Super Bowl playing the QB position is something only 10 guys have ever done in roughly 50 years.......... (Brady/Rodgers/Young/Manning/Warner/Elway/Montana/Favre/Starr).. this is the list...... The one common thread to everyone on this list... They are all Hall of Famers

Patrick Mahomes is on this list as well...... If people took the time to really look at historical comps and how guys have ups and downs to their career; everyone would be better off

[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by MFaulkCollector

Manning and Wilson are poor comps, Brees as well... It took Manning 8 years to play in a super bowl and he had at least 3 very tough seasons early on in is career. Wilson was a shell of himself in 12-14 compared to what he developing into; not to mention the defense and running game was the perceived reason they nearly built a dynasty. Brees was okay for one season early on and really good for another before an injury almost ended his career; not to mention a replacement was drafted for him in year 3. It took 6 years to get to NO and make a playoff run. Mahomes is unique because of how fast and effortless the success was. From 50 TD passes and MVP to SB Champion and MVP all within 2 years. The hysteria and dominance early on both individually and team wise really hasn't ever been seen

I would throw out the following reasonable comps... Dan Marino turned the NFL over in his first 3 years as a full time starter with never before seen aerial stats/records and an MVP....He was a three time first team all pro each of those years....... He wasn't able to get a chip in that window and in the 13 years after that he made just 5 pro bowls and never really had another shot to reach the pinnacle team wise. Maybe Mahomes longevity follows this path

Aaron Rodgers sat for a period that was longer than Mahomes... but when he finally saw the field Rodgers had major success early. Within his first 4 years Rodgers had his SB, SB MVP, and an MVP in which he had the best statistical season in NFL history. The hysteria around what he was going to become after the 2011 regular season was insane. As the years passed the defense wasn't as good and they ran up against a lot of good teams; they also lost some games they should have won. Rodgers continued to play great and won multiple more MVPs...... yet it's very much unlikely that he wins another super bowl. Maybe Mahomes career path follows this.

Kurt Warner set the NFL on absolute fire when he stepped in... although a bizarre road to getting on the field.. in his first 3 seasons as a starter he won two MVPs, won a SB and was the MVP, played in a second super bowl, led the league in pretty much everything. Then things fell apart for him and he didn't play much, kicked around as a backup, then found success later on and managed to nearly win another ring. Maybe Mahomes career will follow this path

The point being.... when you open up like Mahomes did you are immediately compared to the very best to ever play and over time the comparisons are likely a let down. If Marino/Rodgers/Warner got their early accolades at a later time they may have been perceived differently

Winning just 1 MVP and Super Bowl playing the QB position is something only 10 guys have ever done in roughly 50 years.......... (Brady/Rodgers/Young/Manning/Warner/Elway/Montana/Favre/Starr).. this is the list...... The one common thread to everyone on this list... They are all Hall of Famers

Patrick Mahomes is on this list as well...... If people took the time to really look at historical comps and how guys have ups and downs to their career; everyone would be better off

As you probably are already aware, MFaulk, I've been trying to say this for the past 2 years to this crowd. They don't want to hear it, trust me. Tyreek will continue to be the fastest NFL player; Kelce will be a HOF TE for another 5 years; the O-line just needs to be improved (which by the way, it was supposed to after they completely revamped it); their defense just needs to not suck and be mediocre; etc. The fact is, all of those things could occur and they could still lose a Wild Card playoff game on a fluke - the season is lost, 2-3 key players move on to new teams, and the process starts again. This is the reality for everyone not named Brady.

But everyone who comes in with that message gets shot down - "you're just jealous because, a), b), and c)" Is it really that? And then they post in here when things start to unravel for the year that, "Here come all of the trolls. They only show up when Mahomes has a bad game!" Guys, your thread is 1 million, 300 thousand posts deep (1,300,000!), 98% of which is praising Mahomes' every move! What did you expect to happen when he has a bad game/year? *Also, I was here before the 2021 NFL season saying the exact same thing I am now. Just saying.*

Unless you truly bought-in in 2017 and 2018 (and everyone here claims they did even though I know that's not true at all) you're looking at a very bumpy ride. Brees fans know it, Rodgers fans know it, RW3 fans know it, Favre fans know it, Marino fans know it, Manning fans know it. Mahomes will not be Brady. Please understand this. He can still be a great QB in the way all of the QB's MFaulk and I listed are or were. $500k on a RC of the guy, though?...$10k on a RC with a pop near 900? That's crazy talk.

[MFaulkCollector]

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

As you probably are already aware, MFaulk, I've been trying to say this for the past 2 years to this crowd. They don't want to hear it, trust me. Tyreek will continue to be the fastest NFL player; Kelce will be a HOF TE for another 5 years; the O-line just needs to be improved (which by the way, it was supposed to after they completely revamped it); their defense just needs to not suck and be mediocre; etc. The fact is, all of those things could occur and they could still lose a Wild Card playoff game on a fluke - the season is lost, 2-3 key players move on to new teams, and the process starts again. This is the reality for everyone not named Brady.

But everyone who comes in with that message gets shot down - "you're just jealous because, a), b), and c)" Is it really that? And then they post in here when things start to unravel for the year that, "Here come all of the trolls. They only show up when Mahomes has a bad game!" Guys, your thread is 1 million, 300 thousand posts deep (1,300,000!), 98% of which is praising Mahomes' every move! What did you expect to happen when he has a bad game/year? *Also, I was here before the 2021 NFL season saying the exact same thing I am now. Just saying.*

Unless you truly bought-in in 2017 and 2018 (and everyone here claims they did even though I know that's not true at all) you're looking at a very bumpy ride. Brees fans know it, Rodgers fans know it, RW3 fans know it, Favre fans know it, Marino fans know it, Manning fans know it. Mahomes will not be Brady. Please understand this. He can still be a great QB in the way all of the QB's MFaulk and I listed are or were. $500k on a RC of the guy, though?...$10k on a RC with a pop near 900? That's crazy talk.

Yea, I know......... it just seems like people lack any sense to speak from historical data..... and the single worst thing? People get lost in the money aspect and so called long term; they lose the ability to truly appreciate the present when they are in the midst of it. The windows to win in the NFL are so amazingly tight.... fans really need to pay more attention to the moment and worry less about someone playing 15-20 years at a high level. What Mahomes has done in such a tight window and made look so easy is crazy amazing.... and people will lose appreciation because they are clueless about what a players career arc can/may/should looks like (even for the greatest players)

[TSonn]

Originally Posted by MFaulkCollector

Manning and Wilson are poor comps, Brees as well... It took Manning 8 years to play in a super bowl and he had at least 3 very tough seasons early on in is career. Wilson was a shell of himself in 12-14 compared to what he developing into; not to mention the defense and running game was the perceived reason they nearly built a dynasty. Brees was okay for one season early on and really good for another before an injury almost ended his career; not to mention a replacement was drafted for him in year 3. It took 6 years to get to NO and make a playoff run. Mahomes is unique because of how fast and effortless the success was. From 50 TD passes and MVP to SB Champion and MVP all within 2 years. The hysteria and dominance early on both individually and team wise really hasn't ever been seen

I would throw out the following reasonable comps... Dan Marino turned the NFL over in his first 3 years as a full time starter with never before seen aerial stats/records and an MVP....He was a three time first team all pro each of those years....... He wasn't able to get a chip in that window and in the 13 years after that he made just 5 pro bowls and never really had another shot to reach the pinnacle team wise. Maybe Mahomes longevity follows this path

Aaron Rodgers sat for a period that was longer than Mahomes... but when he finally saw the field Rodgers had major success early. Within his first 4 years Rodgers had his SB, SB MVP, and an MVP in which he had the best statistical season in NFL history. The hysteria around what he was going to become after the 2011 regular season was insane. As the years passed the defense wasn't as good and they ran up against a lot of good teams; they also lost some games they should have won. Rodgers continued to play great and won multiple more MVPs...... yet it's very much unlikely that he wins another super bowl. Maybe Mahomes career path follows this.

Kurt Warner set the NFL on absolute fire when he stepped in... although a bizarre road to getting on the field.. in his first 3 seasons as a starter he won two MVPs, won a SB and was the MVP, played in a second super bowl, led the league in pretty much everything. Then things fell apart for him and he didn't play much, kicked around as a backup, then found success later on and managed to nearly win another ring. Maybe Mahomes career will follow this path

The point being.... when you open up like Mahomes did you are immediately compared to the very best to ever play and over time the comparisons are likely a let down. If Marino/Rodgers/Warner got their early accolades at a later time they may have been perceived differently

Winning just 1 MVP and Super Bowl playing the QB position is something only 10 guys have ever done in roughly 50 years.......... (Brady/Rodgers/Young/Manning/Warner/Elway/Montana/Favre/Starr).. this is the list...... The one common thread to everyone on this list... They are all Hall of Famers

Patrick Mahomes is on this list as well...... If people took the time to really look at historical comps and how guys have ups and downs to their career; everyone would be better off

Excellent post. I agree that Marino is probably the closest comp to Mahomes out of that group. Rodgers sat for 3 seasons and he didn't start producing crazy numbers until he was 28 so that feels different. Sure, early success for Rodgers but not the same video games stats as Mahomes. Warner had early success and video game numbers but was 28 when he started so that also just seems different being 5 years older than Mahomes.

I guess the thing with Marino is most people say Marino is the best QB who never won a SB. He made it to 1 and never won. Well, Mahomes already made it to 2 and won 1 so he's technically above Marino and on a different trajectory based on that alone.

Another interesting comparison between Marino and Mahomes is how good the team that drafted them was. The Dolphins were in the Super Bowl the season just prior to drafting Marino. The Chiefs were 12-4 the season prior to drafting Mahomes (lost their playoff game) and then 10-6 the first season while Mahomes sat the bench (also lost their playoff game). Both were drafted into good teams (Dolphins a bit better than the Chiefs).

Marino and Mahomes both put up ridiculous stats and had early success within their first 3 seasons as starters with Mahomes winning the 1 super bowl to Marino's 0.

Does Mahomes just become "new and improved" Marino 2.0? Obviously I don't think so - I think Mahomes will go on to have way more team/winning success than Marino but I'll admit that a lot of the team/winning stuff really isn't up to Mahomes - it's up to the Chiefs to draft well and keep building a solid team around Mahomes (what ended up being Marino's downfall).