The Official Options Thread

[ajlaxmn]

They're taking us down to at least 5520, lots of large buy orders for 5520 P.

Large quantity of 5550 C just came through.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

They're taking us down to at least 5520, lots of large buy orders for 5520 P.

Large quantity of 5550 C just came through.

Not sure if you're in anything or going to be in anything. But on days like today don't trim on momentum loss, trim on iv pushes and or @ levels.

You'll be able to tell when you see impulse pushes on your contracts because you'll see the iv jump.

This morning they were killing all the contracts and stopping people out.

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Not sure if you're in anything or going to be in anything. But on days like today don't trim on momentum loss, trim on iv pushes and or @ levels.

You'll be able to tell when you see impulse pushes on your contracts because you'll see the iv jump.

This morning they were killing all the contracts and stopping people out.

Not in anything yet. Thought about taking some puts when we get closer to 5575, but not sure. Maybe I'll just watch.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

Not in anything yet. Thought about taking some puts when we get closer to 5575, but not sure. Maybe I'll just watch.

Oh ok. I took calls earlier they went from 4.10 > 10.70 but stair stepped their way up there. IV push saved them.

Still have 2 runners I’ll hold as there’s been no shift in structure yet. For me the potential to squeeze is up until I see them change structure.

Basically just riding the wave as I have 5580 as the top

See how they handle the last 2 hours today.

[lane121]

SPX top 5650, key level 5600, bottom 5550 (Gap @ 5639.02)

5580 support

5635/5640 resistance

[Blazed]

Thought yesterday was going to be a choppy day so I didn’t trade lol.

SPX: 5600 key level / 5650 top / 5550 bottom

Id like to see some more 100 point range days this week.

Not going to chase today. Going to give the market about 30 mins.

[lane121]

Nothing yet. I was looking for that 5628 ATR with buyers slowing confirmation before the level was hit on the second SPY candle, but they didn't want to take us there and we lost momentum early. I didn't see a retest anywhere either so didn't get in anything today.

[lane121]

Always tomorrow. Not gonna chase anything today or get in just because I've been watching. A lot of chop today around the key level- I almost got in around the 10:48/10:49 retest for puts, but it looked like a potential low volume pump at the time for buyers, so I didn't want to test.

[Blazed]

Lots of room to kill premiums here.

Too choppy today. Bigger move might come later.

Calling it a day here, no trades.

FOMC minutes tomorrow.

[Blazed]

Worth noting:

Sounds about right

On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will downward revise jobs for the April 2023-March 2024 period by up to 1 million. This means that all "beats" recorded in the past year will have been misses and the US job market is in far worse shape than we've been told.

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Worth noting:

Sounds about right

Hasn't the jobs report been revised down for over a year? Man oh man.

[Blazed]

Levels pretty much the same as yesterday.

The revised jobs data print is supposed to drop today around 10.

So I’ll wait for the reaction to that before taking any trades.

Then FOMC mins at 2

[ajlaxmn]

Didn't catch move down, volume and trend were opposite. Granted I could have "assumed" that it would go down, but I need to start seeing the confirmations that don't agree with each other and start basing decisions of "NOT TAKING TRADE" on that.

Might wait until 5600 or possibly 5639 (ATH).

Blaze, regarding ATH do you go based on the highest Close or the highest point the market reached? If highest point market reached, i would be then watching 5669.67.

[ajlaxmn]

Possibly considering some Dec/Jan Put Leaps if we get ATH.not a lot of support down to 530.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

Didn't catch move down, volume and trend were opposite. Granted I could have "assumed" that it would go down, but I need to start seeing the confirmations that don't agree with each other and start basing decisions of "NOT TAKING TRADE" on that.

Might wait until 5600 or possibly 5639 (ATH).

Blaze, regarding ATH do you go based on the highest Close or the highest point the market reached? If highest point market reached, i would be then watching 5669.67.

Highest the market reached.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by lane121

SPX top 5650, key level 5600, bottom 5550 (Gap @ 5639.02)

5580 support

5635/5640 resistance

Originally Posted by Blazed

Levels pretty much the same as yesterday.

The revised jobs data print is supposed to drop today around 10.

So I’ll wait for the reaction to that before taking any trades.

Then FOMC mins at 2

I was waiting on the gap @ 5639

Got lucky and caught puts @ the top of that push off the bs data.

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

I was waiting on the gap @ 5639

Got lucky and caught puts @ the top of that push off the bs data.

I missed everything. Haha. No levels hit for me, nothing retested, so I sat on the bench with the thumbs twiddling.

Previous me would have chased, probably incorrectly too.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

Possibly considering some Dec/Jan Put Leaps if we get ATH.not a lot of support down to 530.

I will be doing this, just want SPY to get a little higher.

Should get there on Friday if Powell does what Powell does best.

[lane121]

Originally Posted by Blazed

I was waiting on the gap @ 5639

Got lucky and caught puts @ the top of that push off the bs data.

Holding some for FOMC with that great entry? Lol

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by lane121

Holding some for FOMC with that great entry? Lol

Full exit @ 5600.

It's only FOMC minutes - minutes (recap) from last meeting so it's already known.

Powell's speech on Friday though will move the market.

Tomorrow is Jobs and PMI

[lane121]

Got in 2 trades today, but wasn't too happy with my trim on the first trade (puts).

What/when I traded:

3 SPY 560P contracts @ 10:10:12 (est)
3 SPY 558C contracts @ 10:57:24

Thought process and reason for entering trade:

For puts trade: I saw slowing buyers and the 5616 SPX ATR rejecting

For calls trade: We had bounced off the 5597 ATR and broke above 5600 and retested 5600 SPX on the 1 minute @ 10:57.

Exit plan:

Cut if SPX 5 minute candle closed above 5616 ATR on the puts trade.

Cut if SPX 5 minute closed below the 5597 ATR on the calls trade or strong momentum below the ATR before 5 minute close.

Where I sold:

Puts: Trimmed 1 contract at a 10 pt move and sold the other 2 when we closed above intra day support on the 10:15 5 minute SPX candle around 5612.60. Gain on that trade, $54.

Calls: Trimmed 2 contracts for a 10 pt move, then sold the last one at the 11:15 SPX 5 minute close when we closed below intra day resistance of 5612.60. Gain on that trade, $124.

Total gain for the day $178.

On the puts trade, I should have either trimmed 2 contracts at a 10 pt move, or trimmed another at the open/low of the day at the time around 5603.

[lane121]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Full exit @ 5600.

It's only FOMC minutes - minutes (recap) from last meeting so it's already known.

Powell's speech on Friday though will move the market.

Tomorrow is Jobs and PMI

Thanks for mentioning that Blazed. I just saw FOMC and blanked, so I didn't realize it was a recap.

[Blazed]

SPY is getting near it's ATH, when it gets closer (should happen this week) I will be swinging puts 7 months out.

Also worth noting:

Check out VIX

[Josh611]

Originally Posted by Blazed

SPY is getting near it's ATH, when it gets closer (should happen this week) I will be swinging puts 7 months out.

Also worth noting:

Check out VIX

Probably a good play. I would almost go shorter time frame than that.

I still think we end the year higher than we are now. But it’s gonna be a bumpy ride.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Josh611

Probably a good play. I would almost go shorter time frame than that.

I still think we end the year higher than we are now. But it’s gonna be a bumpy ride.

Sure. It’s possible we end higher with all the fake data coming out which is why I swing further out just in case.

Now, in a strong economy with resilient consumers with plenty of cash, why would the Fed want to cut rates?

If history repeats itself, my put swing is for the “what happens next” after the rate cuts.