2020 Politics Thread - Enter At Your Own Risk - RULES IN OP

[tpeichel34]

Originally Posted by calculusdork

I put great faith in statistics and polling when it's truly representative of the population. We found out in 2016 that, somehow, someway ... it wasn't. Period.

So why should I? On Election Day, the morning of ... Five Thirty Eight gave Trump like a 25% chance. That was the highest they'd ever put him ... and they were the highest by far on or around Election Day (see Mike's Princeton link above).

Yeah, I remember Nate Silver being proud because they were a little less wrong than everyone else.

[pac213up]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Would you expect the same type of error to occur twice and at an even greater margin?
.

Very little chance the polls do not improve this round. Even if they did not they would actually have to be worse because Biden is polling that much stronger than Clinton to your point.

https://www.aapor.org/Education-Reso...n-the-U-S.aspx

[Astros19]

As I said earlier, with Trump in the mix I don't believe we can put a lot of stock into polls.
In 2016 it was difficult to tell anyone if you were voting for Trump. There was a societal stigma against doing so.
Given current events I believe the stigma to be even worse this election cycle.
I don't know if what I'm saying is true or not, but I still feel there's a lot of closet Trump supporters.
Disclaimer, I plan on voting for Trump. No he's not the best person for the job of president of the United States, but he's still better than the alternative in my opinion.
The virus and how it effects the economy the next few months leading into the election is the biggest factor right now.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[TheFrenzy]

Anyone else wonder how long the "new moon face" emoji will last?

I feel like at some point we're going to have a "new moon face emoji" controversy.

[TheFrenzy]

Originally Posted by Astros19

As I said earlier, with Trump in the mix I don't believe we can put a lot of stock into polls.

I see one of three things:

1. The internet and polls actually do reflect the general American attitude and Biden wins in an anticlimactic route.

2. The internet and polls are giving a massively false impression. It's possible three things are happening: 1) more of the anti-Trump content is being pushed by Canadians/Europeans/non-Americans than actual Americans 2) most of what is being by Americans is being pushed by younger slacktivists who are notoriously poor about showing up to vote and 3) after four years, most people who intend to vote for Trump have cultivated lifestyles and habits that have taken them "off the grid" as far as polling is concerned.

3. None of the above matters and one or both parties will take unprecedented tangible steps to rig the election. As in, votes changed or thrown out.

Do I have a prediction?

Nope.

Come November, I'm going to vote as early as possible and then bunker down with my dissertation and plenty of food and toilet paper. I wanted to get through the "living in an apartment with a toddler" without firearm, but we'll see how tense things are when we're closer to Election Day. I'll post pics of the smoke coming from downtown Phoenix if it comes to that.

[RedSoxFan28]

[RedSoxFan28]

"why didnt anyone take a picture?"

[RedSoxFan28]

Crazy coincidence
@MartySmithESPN
NASCAR president Steve Phelps says NASCAR conducted a "thorough sweep of all 29 tracks where they race, and 1684 garage stalls, they found only 11 total ropes that had a pulldown rope tied in a knot, and just one noose: The one in Bubba Wallace garage."

[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Fair enough.

I can guarantee you that Parscale is seeing all this polling information from this morning and reevaluating some aspects of the campaign.

Not directed at you, I just find it silly that anybody would scoff at the polls when the campaigns themselves do not.

We all saw UMBC beat Virginia. Not every "guarantee" happens every time, but it happens enough of the time time to pretty much call those 16 v 1 match-ups. If you're right 99% of the time, that's damn good.

I think we can mostly agree. I do think there are a couple fundamental differences between, say, odds in the NCAA tournament and the 2020 Election. There is so much similar between 2016 and 2020 that I'm less inclined to believe in the "random sampling" this time around than I normally would be.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by RedSoxFan28

@MartySmithESPN
NASCAR president Steve Phelps says NASCAR conducted a "thorough sweep of all 29 tracks where they race, and 1684 garage stalls, they found only 11 total ropes that had a pulldown rope tied in a knot, and just one noose: The one in Bubba Wallace garage."

And your conclusion then is ...

[TheFrenzy]

Originally Posted by RedSoxFan28

Bias confirmation is a hell of a drug.

If you have any familiarity at all with garage bays and industrial settings (like a race crew), you don't think twice.

If you're hyper focused on racism, your brain is going to scream "NOOSE!"

It's a perfect Rorschach test. You're going to see what your brain is programmed to see and I really can't blame anyone.

Now, once you come back to reality, it's obviously a door pull and I do blame anyone who continues to insist that it's a noose. But I'd give them a "first reaction" free pass.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by RedSoxFan28

"why didnt anyone take a picture?"

It's a shame that picture doesn't show it attached to a garage door, someone could get the wrong impression.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by TheFrenzy

Now, once you come back to reality, it's obviously a door pull and I do blame anyone who continues to insist that it's a noose. But I'd give them a "first reaction" free pass.

First reaction free pass. Going on TV claiming it's still a noose; goodbye free pass.

[rcmb3220]

Originally Posted by RedSoxFan28

Crazy coincidence
@MartySmithESPN
NASCAR president Steve Phelps says NASCAR conducted a "thorough sweep of all 29 tracks where they race, and 1684 garage stalls, they found only 11 total ropes that had a pulldown rope tied in a knot, and just one noose: The one in Bubba Wallace garage."

No wonder they needed 15 FBI agents. I will say this at the very least, whoever tied that knew they were making a noose and either is racist or has a morbid sense of humor. And it doesn’t sound like it was targeted at Wallace.

[coltsnsox07]

Way off topic, I know how to make nooses, some Ren Fair actor friends needed them as props.

[tpeichel34]

Originally Posted by tpeichel34

Biden emphatically denies any knowledge of Flynn investigation. Oops!

https://mobile.twitter.com/rising_se...18094951358465

Originally Posted by mattglet

...................Purple!

Originally Posted by TheFrenzy

I see one of three things:

1. The internet and polls actually do reflect the general American attitude and Biden wins in an anticlimactic route.

2. The internet and polls are giving a massively false impression. It's possible three things are happening: 1) more of the anti-Trump content is being pushed by Canadians/Europeans/non-Americans than actual Americans 2) most of what is being by Americans is being pushed by younger slacktivists who are notoriously poor about showing up to vote and 3) after four years, most people who intend to vote for Trump have cultivated lifestyles and habits that have taken them "off the grid" as far as polling is concerned.

3. None of the above matters and one or both parties will take unprecedented tangible steps to rig the election. As in, votes changed or thrown out.

Do I have a prediction?

Nope.

Come November, I'm going to vote as early as possible and then bunker down with my dissertation and plenty of food and toilet paper. I wanted to get through the "living in an apartment with a toddler" without firearm, but we'll see how tense things are when we're closer to Election Day. I'll post pics of the smoke coming from downtown Phoenix if it comes to that.

4) Documentary evidence continues to come out that shows the Obama Administration weaponized federal agencies in an effort to destroy Trump and voters rejected corrupted Biden.

[trixstar]

Mississippi reports 1,092 new COVID19 cases today, blowing past Tuesday's record 611 new cases.

Hospitalizations are also now at an all-time high.


https://m.jacksonfreepress.com/news/...erwhelmed-hos/

[sethc1020]

Originally Posted by techtre2003

Because he's going up against Joe Biden (and the Democrats in general). Just like the last election, I think the majority of people are going to be voting against someone rather than for someone. I'm much more excited to see who we get in 2024.

I couldn't agree more, not a huge Biden fan either but he's WAAAAY better than another 4 years of this circus. Definitely ready for 2024 also, we need much younger candidates running.

[DegaBama]

Why are people afraid to admit that the rise in cases is due to protesting?

It was crazy to see the virus go away for 3 weeks but now it magically came back.

[sethc1020]

Originally Posted by SleeperCards

Have you met many Americans? A good portion are just as stupid as he is.

You are very correct my friend. We can't even get fools to wear masks to protect against this virus and keep us all much safer.

[DegaBama]

Originally Posted by sethc1020

You are very correct my friend. We can't even get fools to wear masks to protect against this virus and keep us all much safer.

The safest way to not get the virus is to stay home.

[Jgil316]

Originally Posted by DegaBama

Why are people afraid to admit that the rise in cases is due to protesting?

It was crazy to see the virus go away for 3 weeks but now it magically came back.

Virus NEVER went away....

Memorial day it started circulating again - then yes, the protests bumped it and to be honest - 4th of July will pop it up again.

Why?

Because people are so self absorbed

[DegaBama]

Originally Posted by Jgil316

Virus NEVER went away....

Memorial day it started circulating again - then yes, the protests bumped it and to be honest - 4th of July will pop it up again.

Why?

Because people are so self absorbed

I know it never went away but if you watched the news, it did. And now cases are popping up for all these reasons EXCEPT the protests.

This is why people don't care anymore. It's why I don't. Once governors that told me to stay home were walking in protests, I stopped listening.

[Jgil316]

Originally Posted by DegaBama

I know it never went away but if you watched the news, it did. And now cases are popping up for all these reasons EXCEPT the protests.

This is why people don't care anymore. It's why I don't. Once governors that told me to stay home were walking in protests, I stopped listening.

I totally agree with you!

All of the recommendations were thrown out the window once this virus became politicized .... (I am talking BOTH sides) and now, all of the crap we went through from Feb to March/June.. All of that is now gone.

[ballhawkdawk]

Originally Posted by DegaBama

This is why people don't care anymore. It's why I don't. Once governors that told me to stay home were walking in protests, I stopped listening.

Bingo. The show is over.