The Official Stock Market Thread

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Same stock? I'm keeping my eye out.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/zjO8hAoZ/

I'm paying attention to that 50ema resistance. Daily stoch looking like it may be getting slightly toppy here, too...but doesn't necessarily have to be the case.

Weekly had a nice bounce off the 50 ($79.50)...if it holds, the uptrend is still very much in tact.

It could bounce between the 50 and 200 until it breaks up or down. Generally I view a convincing break above 200day after a consolidation as a pretty bullish signal tho.

Never used stochastic rsi before. Too many indicators usually just muddies the water for me.

I use regular RSI occasionally, support and resistance pivot points, heiken ashi candles, and the 20/50/100/200 emas

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

It could bounce between the 50 and 200 until it breaks up or down. Generally I view a convincing break above 200day after a consolidation as a pretty bullish signal tho.

Never used stochastic rsi before. Too many indicators usually just muddies the water for me.

I use regular RSI occasionally, support and resistance pivot points, heiken ashi candles, and the 20/50/100/200 emas

I feel you.

Yeah, too many indicators can be a bad thing. I'm primarily a 50/200 ema guy with stoch/rsi. I typically eye stoch first before regular rsi as it can sometimes do a better job at spotting hidden divergences. But yeah, just because the stoch is in extreme territory does not a guarantee it's done trending in a direction...it can often signal the start of a continuation.


Kill it bruh.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

I feel you.

Yeah, too many indicators can be a bad thing. I'm primarily a 50/200 ema guy with stoch/rsi. I typically eye stoch first before regular rsi as it can sometimes do a better job at spotting hidden divergences. But yeah, just because the stoch is in extreme territory does not a guarantee it's done trending in a direction...it can often signal the start of a continuation.


Kill it bruh.

I've been trying to figure out how the hell to use the fibs. Basically every technician I've read or podcasts I listen to or whatever they rave about it but it really just ends up with me drawing a bunch of pretty pictures on the chart

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

I've been trying to figure out how the hell to use the fibs. Basically every technician I've read or podcasts I listen to or whatever they rave about it but it really just ends up with me drawing a bunch of pretty pictures on the chart

There's so many ways to use it, I don't think there's a real right or wrong answer since people have different time frames and trading strategies.

What I like to do is start with the daily chart.

Then look for the beginning of an uptrend or wave, then trace it all the way up to the all time high (wick, not the candle closes).

If you do it correctly, you should see the chart lining up pretty well with the support and resistance touches on the retracements.

Quick example:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PLzmuFvg/

It's never an exact science, but gives you a general guideline of when to take profit or re-enter because the fibs usually line up with the stoch/rsi indicators.

Of course you'll have to constantly adjust if things break all time highs or lows...and that's where you'll have to use the fib extension tool.

Pretty straightforward once you experiment a bit.

[finfangfan]

AI having another strong day this morning. Up 7% to $55.18.

[jcardstore]

Here's my trade log so far for my covered calls cash flow (that's a mouthful) strategy.

8/16 - Buy 100 shares MTTR @ 14.76
- Sell 9/17 17.5C @ $40

8/25 - Buy 100 shares BB @ 11.22
- Sell 8/27 12C @ $38 - 8/25
- Sell 9/03 11.5C @ $33 - 8/30

8/25 - Buy 100 shares SOFI @ 14.57
- Sell 8/27 15C @ $15 - 8/25
- Sell 9/03 15C @ $10 - 8/30

8/30 - Buy 100 shares SDC @ 5.33
- Sell 9/03 5.5C @ $25

8/31 - Buy 100 shares HIMX @ 11.80
- Sell 9/03 12C @ $15

I've been able to generate 3.14% in premium in a week and a half before any of these calls get exercised. It looks like BB, HIMX, and (maybe)SDC will get exercised so that will end up being a bit higher.

I don't expect 3% every week but even 1% a week is an amazing return. Let's see how this works out over several months

[finfangfan]

Originally Posted by finfangfan

AI having another strong day this morning. Up 7% to $55.18.

And ouch… AI tanks 8% after hours after earnings announcement.

[JMarchand1981]

Someone take a moment and Google “Allen Wu arm China” and acknowledge the size of the nuts on this guy. This is the stuff that just blows my mind.

[JMarchand1981]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Here's my trade log so far for my covered calls cash flow (that's a mouthful) strategy.

8/16 - Buy 100 shares MTTR @ 14.76
- Sell 9/17 17.5C @ $40

8/25 - Buy 100 shares BB @ 11.22
- Sell 8/27 12C @ $38 - 8/25
- Sell 9/03 11.5C @ $33 - 8/30

8/25 - Buy 100 shares SOFI @ 14.57
- Sell 8/27 15C @ $15 - 8/25
- Sell 9/03 15C @ $10 - 8/30

8/30 - Buy 100 shares SDC @ 5.33
- Sell 9/03 5.5C @ $25

8/31 - Buy 100 shares HIMX @ 11.80
- Sell 9/03 12C @ $15

I've been able to generate 3.14% in premium in a week and a half before any of these calls get exercised. It looks like BB, HIMX, and (maybe)SDC will get exercised so that will end up being a bit higher.

I don't expect 3% every week but even 1% a week is an amazing return. Let's see how this works out over several months

I love the covered call strategy. Here is the thing with these types of companies.

These are mostly dog poop companies. That's fine but you are extremely exposed to the downside. I know you rely on TA. You need to know that you are right about both the direction of these stocks and the market as a whole. I am figuring you found some indicator that put you onto the overall direction of these companies over the short term.

That said, I have a buddy that has been executing a strategy like this for years. Same types of companies as well. He does fine, but I know from talking with him that he has been bitten by downward pressure in the overall market. These types of companies get smoked when the market pulls back.

I know you know all of this. I am just tossing it out. It also seems like your expectations are definitely in-line with reality.

Here is what I don't understand. Are these weekly calls? Or do you own 200 shares of, say, BB to cover both calls?

Also, I could reverse engineer this but I don't want to take the time so I will just ask. When you are figuring your rate of return, are you including the movement of the stock as well? You definitely should be if you aren't.
If you make 4% selling a call but lose 3% on the stock, you actually got murdered since the equity position has a higher overall cost basis than the option.

[JMarchand1981]

Originally Posted by finfangfan

And ouch… AI tanks 8% after hours after earnings announcement.

Already wrote down the options. Nothing to salvage there.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by JMarchand1981

I love the covered call strategy. Here is the thing with these types of companies.

These are mostly dog poop companies. That's fine but you are extremely exposed to the downside. I know you rely on TA. You need to know that you are right about both the direction of these stocks and the market as a whole. I am figuring you found some indicator that put you onto the overall direction of these companies over the short term.

That said, I have a buddy that has been executing a strategy like this for years. Same types of companies as well. He does fine, but I know from talking with him that he has been bitten by downward pressure in the overall market. These types of companies get smoked when the market pulls back.

I know you know all of this. I am just tossing it out. It also seems like your expectations are definitely in-line with reality.

Here is what I don't understand. Are these weekly calls? Or do you own 200 shares of, say, BB to cover both calls?

Also, I could reverse engineer this but I don't want to take the time so I will just ask. When you are figuring your rate of return, are you including the movement of the stock as well? You definitely should be if you aren't.
If you make 4% selling a call but lose 3% on the stock, you actually got murdered since the equity position has a higher overall cost basis than the option.

Seriously appreciate all of the advice.

I'm basically just winging it here. I decided to learn python and the best way was to use it for financial data. I've worked through many iterations of this script and it still sucks.

I've modified and tweaked it over time and will continue working on it to make it even better.

every stock here I get alerted on ends up being junk, super high IV stuff that mostly sucks.

My goal here is to make 1-3% per trade and that includes whatever I sell the underlying equity at, gain or loss. Fortunately I haven't taken a loss on any shares so that % is just pure covered call premium.

The BB calls are both on 100 shares 2 separate weeks. I've bought ~6.5% of premium over 2 weeks worth of calls. Plus in my favor it seems like I'll get my 11.5s exercised for another 2.5% gain over my cost basis which would put me at ~9%.

Essentially, my goal is to get as close to getting exercised as possible and hold these the least amount of time while maximizing my return. If I buy on Monday, sell a call on Wednesday and get exercised on Friday that's a best case scenario. It limits my upside but also limits my downside.

I'm totally prepared to take a loss on some of these plays. That's why my goal is 1% a week over the aggregate. Which is super aggressive, I acknowledge.

The market direction (in a best case scenario) shouldn't matter because my script is supposed to be agnostic of market conditions. It just finds stocks based on my criteria and I capitalize on volatility or bullish price action... etc.

[btmcrushers]

Thoughts on GENI?

[finfangfan]

Originally Posted by btmcrushers

Thoughts on GENI?

I love GENI! I’ve been in and out of it since it’s DMYD spac days and done well. I think it will really take off this Fall in the first year of its NFL data deal. It is crossing $21/sh today for the first time in awhile.

[btmcrushers]

Originally Posted by finfangfan

I love GENI! I’ve been in and out of it since it’s DMYD spac days and done well. I think it will really take off this Fall in the first year of its NFL data deal. It is crossing $21/sh today for the first time in awhile.

I've got 2 shares @21.07 and 50 @20.39 - was debating whether it is a longer term hold or if it creeps up to the 23-24 range with earnings next week if I just take a 8-9% ROI and exit.

[finfangfan]

Originally Posted by btmcrushers

I've got 2 shares @21.07 and 50 @20.39 - was debating whether it is a longer term hold or if it creeps up to the 23-24 range with earnings next week if I just take a 8-9% ROI and exit.

GENI is a pretty volatile stock. It also tends to be very active in final hour. When it was DMYD I was trading some of my shares with 4-5% intraday swings. Lately I’ve been holding a little over 200 shares (@ $18.49) and I am also holding DKNG as a partner gambling stock in my portfolio.

My plan is to ride both stocks out through the Fall, but if GENI gets to $24/25 per share sooner rather than later, I will probably trim some.

[blackandgold]

DraftKings just keeps pumping- definitely holding to latter part of the NFL season

[RBKSNIPZ]

How do we invest in Fanatics since they will be making sports cards ? Is their any publicly traded sports card companies right now?

[JMarchand1981]

Originally Posted by RBKSNIPZ

How do we invest in Fanatics since they will be making sports cards ? Is their any publicly traded sports card companies right now?

Fanatics just filed for an IPO. It'll take some time but you will be open to just buy it on the open market, probably by the end of this year I would speculate. I couldn't possibly imagine the books are that difficult to reconcile to pass GAAP muster and make the SEC happy.

No other sports cards company are public. Panini's mothership, of soccer sticker fame, may be public but I haven't really taken the time to look.

I have to be honest. I think Fanatics is going to be a great IPO to be a part of. I am unable to participate in IPO's but I figure this would be undersubscribed and there would be deals to be had between the open date and the lock up period.

[JMarchand1981]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Seriously appreciate all of the advice.

I'm basically just winging it here. I decided to learn python and the best way was to use it for financial data. I've worked through many iterations of this script and it still sucks.

I've modified and tweaked it over time and will continue working on it to make it even better.

every stock here I get alerted on ends up being junk, super high IV stuff that mostly sucks.

My goal here is to make 1-3% per trade and that includes whatever I sell the underlying equity at, gain or loss. Fortunately I haven't taken a loss on any shares so that % is just pure covered call premium.

The BB calls are both on 100 shares 2 separate weeks. I've bought ~6.5% of premium over 2 weeks worth of calls. Plus in my favor it seems like I'll get my 11.5s exercised for another 2.5% gain over my cost basis which would put me at ~9%.

Essentially, my goal is to get as close to getting exercised as possible and hold these the least amount of time while maximizing my return. If I buy on Monday, sell a call on Wednesday and get exercised on Friday that's a best case scenario. It limits my upside but also limits my downside.

I'm totally prepared to take a loss on some of these plays. That's why my goal is 1% a week over the aggregate. Which is super aggressive, I acknowledge.

The market direction (in a best case scenario) shouldn't matter because my script is supposed to be agnostic of market conditions. It just finds stocks based on my criteria and I capitalize on volatility or bullish price action... etc.

When selling covered calls, the bolded part is always the goal. It means you are having your cake and eating it too.

I don't find your 1% a week to be out of reach, to be honest. If you play your cards right (which it looks like you have a good understanding of what you are doing) and don't take massive stupid risk (which it doesn't seem like you are doing) you could very comfortably bang out 1% per week.

The S&P on the rolling-12 has spit out some 31% as of 8/31/21. Selling covered calls is a singles game. Hit singles 85% of the time. Watch out for disaster on the horizon and keep hitting singles. Once you get to the point where you have accumulated enough money to cover any realistic potential pullback, you can just accumulate the money.

I have been selling covered calls for 4-5 years. I do it differently than you but that doesn't mean it's the only way to do it. Hell, one of the guys on my team has a different strategy than me. I'll always hear the idea. I don't normally take it because it doesn't pass in suitability, but I recognize there are many ways to make a buck

[ninjacookies]

Damnit. BB rejected off that red resistance box.

Hopefully some consolidation for a push by the end of the month.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by JMarchand1981

When selling covered calls, the bolded part is always the goal. It means you are having your cake and eating it too.

I don't find your 1% a week to be out of reach, to be honest. If you play your cards right (which it looks like you have a good understanding of what you are doing) and don't take massive stupid risk (which it doesn't seem like you are doing) you could very comfortably bang out 1% per week.

The S&P on the rolling-12 has spit out some 31% as of 8/31/21. Selling covered calls is a singles game. Hit singles 85% of the time. Watch out for disaster on the horizon and keep hitting singles. Once you get to the point where you have accumulated enough money to cover any realistic potential pullback, you can just accumulate the money.

I have been selling covered calls for 4-5 years. I do it differently than you but that doesn't mean it's the only way to do it. Hell, one of the guys on my team has a different strategy than me. I'll always hear the idea. I don't normally take it because it doesn't pass in suitability, but I recognize there are many ways to make a buck

Do you just sell calls against your long positions?

In my retirement portfolio I sell weeklies against all my positions. Besides HACK, since that only has monthlies. The difference there is that the cash just accumulates and gets reinvested in my long positions.

My current retirement portfolio looks like this:

HACK
TGT
LEA - I thought this would break out of consolidating but it seems stuck and now is trading under the 200day. Looking to rotate into APTV instead.
MRVL
SWIR (I'm up like 180% on this one and just trimmed half after last ER)
MCD
SPLK
SNOW

I'm thinking about adding SOFI here. I initially got alerted for the covered calls script I have but I actually like them as a potential disruptor in the personal finance space.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Damnit. BB rejected off that red resistance box.

Hopefully some consolidation for a push by the end of the month.

Yea, that's my queue to get out. I suspect I'll buy back my call to close and sell out of the position today to take my 5% but we'll see how it trades.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by JMarchand1981

If you make 4% selling a call but lose 3% on the stock, you actually got murdered since the equity position has a higher overall cost basis than the option.

As long as premiums stay high would a 3% fall really hurt?

-Buy “XYZ” for $100.

-Sell weekly $105s for $4.00. Cost basis is now $96.

-XYZ closes the week at $97. Next week I sell $100s for $4.00. Cost based is now $92.

-XYZ closes at $94. Rinse and repeat.

I do realize that this is based on arbitrary numbers, and a bigger pullback can waste away your profits + make it untenable to sell covered calls until the stock bounces back.

Oddly enough, I know the meme stocks have absolutely ridiculous premiums. AMC had the high mark of $0.08 on $95s with 2 DTE yesterday. $60s had a high mark of $0.22 with 2 DTE. Make 0.5% on a 35% run in less than 2 full trading days? That seems like it shouldn’t be legal.

Obviously it’s stock dependent, but with these meme stocks I think they could retrace back to a more reasonable price and most holders would still be green.

I posted it towards Posey, who said he isn’t selling CCs on his 1,000+ AMC shares, but I have a buddy who’s cost basis is now approaching -$100 on his shares and he’s been selling furthest out expirations. The guy sold AMC $70s for $2.50 last Tuesday when the stock was at $45ish. Even penultimate AMC bag holders could be green with the crazy premiums on CCs, and I’m pretty sure that’s why the meme stocks refuse to die. Nobody wants the option merry go round to come to a halt.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

As long as premiums stay high would a 3% fall really hurt?

-Buy “XYZ” for $100.

-Sell weekly $105s for $4.00. Cost basis is now $96.

-XYZ closes the week at $97. Next week I sell $100s for $4.00. Cost based is now $92.

-XYZ closes at $94. Rinse and repeat.

I do realize that this is based on arbitrary numbers, and a bigger pullback can waste away your profits + make it untenable to sell covered calls until the stock bounces back.

Oddly enough, I know the meme stocks have absolutely ridiculous premiums. AMC had the high mark of $0.08 on $95s with 2 DTE yesterday. $60s had a high mark of $0.22 with 2 DTE. Make 0.5% on a 35% run in less than 2 full trading days? That seems like it shouldn’t be legal.

Obviously it’s stock dependent, but with these meme stocks I think they could retrace back to a more reasonable price and most holders would still be green.

I posted it towards Posey, who said he isn’t selling CCs on his 1,000+ AMC shares, but I have a buddy who’s cost basis is now approaching -$100 on his shares and he’s been selling furthest out expirations. The guy sold AMC $70s for $2.50 last Tuesday when the stock was at $45ish. Even penultimate AMC bag holders could be green with the crazy premiums on CCs, and I’m pretty sure that’s why the meme stocks refuse to die. Nobody wants the option merry go round to come to a halt.

This is the significant risk of my strategy which is why I have to get in and get out quickly and lock in profits.

In some cases it may make sense to buy to close the call just to break even on a trade if the technical setup turns bad

[mhcubsfan]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Do you just sell calls against your long positions?

In my retirement portfolio I sell weeklies against all my positions. Besides HACK, since that only has monthlies. The difference there is that the cash just accumulates and gets reinvested in my long positions.

My current retirement portfolio looks like this:

HACK
TGT
LEA - I thought this would break out of consolidating but it seems stuck and now is trading under the 200day. Looking to rotate into APTV instead.
MRVL
SWIR (I'm up like 180% on this one and just trimmed half after last ER)
MCD
SPLK
SNOW

I'm thinking about adding SOFI here. I initially got alerted for the covered calls script I have but I actually like them as a potential disruptor in the personal finance space.

Thoughts on picking HACK rather than CIBR? I personally have CIBR.