✹The PERENNIAL Shohei Ohtani Thread✹

[GabrielCards]

Thanks! I was not about to jump on the Dynasty, just thought it is a great looking card. The last Topps Chrome Gold Auto PSA 10 sold for 32Kish.

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by GabrielCards

There is a 2018 Topps Dynasty Auto Patch BGS 9.5, asking price: 36K. Am wondering how that card and grade would hold up to say a PSA 10 Topps Chrome Gold Auto, which can be had for around 28K.

ebay.com/itm/176424740521
ebay.com/itm/126496067962

$36k seems a little nutty.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by GabrielCards

Thanks! I was not about to jump on the Dynasty, just thought it is a great looking card. The last Topps Chrome Gold Auto PSA 10 sold for 32Kish.

Sure, but an orange /25 sold for $30K so that tells you a fool rushed into buy at $32k, it's a fake comp created by someone, or wasn't paid for.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by NYRE2PECT

ebay.com/itm/176424740521
ebay.com/itm/126496067962

$36k seems a little nutty.

Spoiler alert - It's a $12-15K card max in a sensible market setting. But it is a card people will jump out of their seat for since it sells so infrequently.

[sauceboy]

FYI, there are several nice Ohtani RC autos listed in Goldin's 2024 September Elite Auction.

[hammertime]

As well as his 40/40 HR ball! And one of those godforsaken Topps Through the Years reprint cards. They should really just shred all of those.

[sportzluvr1]

13 games for 3 bombs and 2 bags..does he do it?

[hammertime]

Originally Posted by sportzluvr1

13 games for 3 bombs and 2 bags..does he do it?

Yes. Starting tonight.

[ThoseBackPages]

yes he can!

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by sportzluvr1

13 games for 3 bombs and 2 bags..does he do it?

I hope so!

[Trueblue]

Welcoming back a member that I sold in 2021.

[ThoseBackPages]

same copy?

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

same copy?

It is not, unfortunately. I did check

I had two copies that I bought raw for ~$100 a piece and graded with PC sports for $12/card bulk special - both gemmed, no upcharge. Those were the good ol' days.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

It is not, unfortunately. I did check

I had two copies that I bought raw for ~$100 a piece and graded with PC sports for $12/card bulk special - both gemmed, no upcharge. Those were the good ol' days.

ahhh

keep hunting!

[cbeauch87]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

It is not, unfortunately. I did check

I had two copies that I bought raw for ~$100 a piece and graded with PC sports for $12/card bulk special - both gemmed, no upcharge. Those were the good ol' days.

How much was the price difference between what you sold it for in 2021 and what you bought it back for?

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by cbeauch87

How much was the price difference between what you sold it for in 2021 and what you bought it back for?

I bought for what I consider slightly below fair value. That said, the price I sold it for in 2021 was much higher. That sale was also followed by comps that were just as high until the money ran out. 2021 was a crazy time.

[ThoseBackPages]

yea, 2021 money isnt real haha

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

I bought for what I consider slightly below fair value. That said, the price I sold it for in 2021 was much higher. That sale was also followed by comps that were just as high until the money ran out. 2021 was a crazy time.

So what your saying is if I had bought high end during post all star break in 2021 I would be under water on those cards too? Maybe I shouldn't feel as salty knowing I bought a raw US1 rainbow foil (from the advice on this board) for $135 that regularly sells for like $70 now.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

So what your saying is if I had bought high end during post all star break in 2021 I would be under water on those cards too? Maybe I shouldn't feel as salty knowing I bought a raw US1 rainbow foil (from the advice on this board) for $135 that regularly sells for like $70 now.

SOME high end.

If you were buying autos, you would've fared just fine - literally ANY auto. A lot of rare cards like this HMT1 red just irrationally overshot their fair value mark, even amongst Ohtani-mania part 1.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

SOME high end.

If you were buying autos, you would've fared just fine - literally ANY auto. A lot of rare cards like this HMT1 red just irrationally overshot their fair value mark, even amongst Ohtani-mania part 1.

I wish I had bought some Ohtani RC autos back then...but I really didn't know what I was doing. The good news is I picked up plenty of Ohtani cards that have gone up in value.

What are your current thoughts on the Ohtani market currently? I know you buy and sell regularly to obtain as many super high end card, so it doesn't really matter to you. I also know the the Ohtani market is also based on his health and the overall economy. Do you think his cards are valued pretty correctly right now?

I am still of the opinion that there is a lot of room for growth for the low to mid end market SP cards and numbered cards. I have seen the light...I think low end base/graded base are where they should be with maybe long term potential to grow, but not in the short term.

[ThoseBackPages]

i am not worried

[Trueblue]

I would not feel bad about what you could have done. We'd all be rich if we made all the right moves. It probably looks like I smoothly navigated all the peaks and valleys, but it is absolutely untrue. I made tons of mistakes (selling mostly) and most people looked at me like I was crazy when I didn't sell out in 2021. It's a long game with Sho.

Ohtani market seems about where it should be. A dude getting tons of TV real estate breaking historical marks being up 12-15% neighborhood while the rest of the sport is down up to 5% on average (ultra-modern even more). That's a 20%ish swing off a not low basis.

I think there will be some cooling/softness after the WS (or dodgers being eliminated) and the calendar turning. 2025 is going to be nutty if Sho comes back full force. Those that missed Sho starts due to "small" market Anaheim are going to see this dude, beginning on the global stage in Japan. If he picks up off the 2021-2023 pace, you are right that there is a lot of ceiling left.

Lastly, high end (versus low/medium-end) will appreciate more in good times and drop less during bad time. You can say the same thing (with different extend) for medium versus low-end.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

I would not feel bad about what you could have done. We'd all be rich if we made all the right moves. It probably looks like I smoothly navigated all the peaks and valleys, but it is absolutely untrue. I made tons of mistakes (selling mostly) and most people looked at me like I was crazy when I didn't sell out in 2021. It's a long game with Sho.

Ohtani market seems about where it should be. A dude getting tons of TV real estate breaking historical marks being up 12-15% neighborhood while the rest of the sport is down up to 5% on average (ultra-modern even more). That's a 20%ish swing off a not low basis.

I think there will be some cooling/softness after the WS (or dodgers being eliminated) and the calendar turning. 2025 is going to be nutty if Sho comes back full force. Those that missed Sho starts due to "small" market Anaheim are going to see this dude, beginning on the global stage in Japan. If he picks up off the 2021-2023 pace, you are right that there is a lot of ceiling left.

Lastly, high end (versus low/medium-end) will appreciate more in good times and drop less during bad time. You can say the same thing (with different extend) for medium versus low-end.

Thanks for the reply! As always, I think you are right on!

[Mister2Bits]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Oh, um. I'm the seller if it's a PSA 9 :O

Thank you Sir!

I finally own this card!

[ThoseBackPages]

Fine Nine INDEED!