Ronald Acuña

[notfast]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

You know how many Tatis have shown up? Two.

There's been a few more than two that I've come across

That being said...anyone with an Acuna foilboard gem interested in a Tatis BGS 10? Might be something I'd move it for...

[BNB]

Originally Posted by jjeanius

If TC is your absolute favorite RC, then I don’t understand why this is even up for discussion for you.

As for the debate over which card is iconic, is this even still up for discussion..?

I have other color parallels and this would be easy to move. Hence my original passage; talk me out of it.

And, ya I get that all the other collectors in the world have determined which card is iconic. Did any of us call it prior to the release of the product?

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

I am aware of delta. Lebron 2003 TC base PSA 10 were selling for $50-70 in 2004 and now they are selling for $2200 (30-40X return), however overall Lebron market did not go up the same percentage-wise since 2004.

That's exactly what I said earlier is that the highest delta seems to be base. Others were making the argument that the Sapphire delta will be higher than the TC Red.

Acuna bat down and Sapphire returns will surpass others in the long run imo. They already have in the past one year compared to the overall Acuna market. Acuna TC Sapphire/285 is already selling for more than 2018 TC Orange Ref/25 in similar grades (i.e. TC Orange Ref have not appreciated as much as the TC Sapphire over the past one year even though at some point last year, raw TC Sapphire/285 were selling for less than raw TC Gold/50 and TC Orange/25)

Right so the question, from the point we're at now, is the Sapphire delta going to be higher? It's already become the most desirable. There's no doubt that a specific card can jump out ahead of the pack like Sapphire did, but that increase was before it became the card to own. My issue is with people talking about delta being significantly higher among the already most desirable rares(Black, Sapphire, etc). It's much different than a prediction of a specific card catapulting to Sapphire level

[dream34]

Originally Posted by nflfans4ever

ACUNAAAA !!! Judge thread is now irrelevant

This guy gets it!

#1 Thread in all of the Galaxy!!

-----------

TBP is the "Hit King" with 1,985 posts

He's also probably the "RBI" King with the most moments

chris_ac gets the "Total Bases" crown for the best all-around collection

pcp and jjeanius get the "HR" Crown for the big hitters

(Sorry if I left anyone out, just one man's opinion)

Let's hope Ronnie keeps the good times rolling

[KhalDrogo]

I post a lot. And TBP has 2.4x as many posts as me in this thread.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I post a lot. And TBP has 2.4x as many posts as me in this thread.

i believe in you Khal!

[dream34]

Originally Posted by BBases31

I wasn't talking about a lower #ed card selling for less than a higher print run. Obviously that happens all the time. I was specifically talking about the delta of each card(https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/delta.asp). So if the overall Acuna market increases 20% in price, people are implying that the Sapphire will increase significantly more, say 50%, whereas the Red TC might only increase by 20%.

Originally Posted by BBases31

Right so the question, from the point we're at now, is the Sapphire delta going to be higher? It's already become the most desirable.

In general the lower end has a higher ROI % but also a much lower floor ($0.01 ).

There are of course examples of the higher end having higher deltas though, even with the best players. The Lebron Exquisite RPA /99 has been somewhere around a 30x in the last decade while his Exquisite /100 has been around a 15x over the same time period. If you want a Parallel, then the TC Lebron RC pcp mentioned also would qualify. In early 2014 the BGS 9.5 was around a $200 card, the Gold BGS 9.5 was around a $4000 card. While the Base is somewhere around a 5-6x ($1200) now, there would be a considerable list of suitors for the Gold at even 10x ($40000).

(I know about both of these because I bought that TC Gold ... and have sold a few of the Exquisite RPA /99's over the years )

[Rabs]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I post a lot. And TBP has 2.4x as many posts as me in this thread.

I get the Bronze medal!

10% of my entire posts on Blowout are from this thread.

[ddearing]

And Packerfan is the Abner Doubleday of the thread (except, he actually did start it)

[mwheeler27]

Originally Posted by ddearing

And Packerfan is the Abner Doubleday of the thread (except, he actually did start it)

Then you mean Alexander Cartwright.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by BBases31

That's exactly what I said earlier is that the highest delta seems to be base. Others were making the argument that the Sapphire delta will be higher than the TC Red.



Right so the question, from the point we're at now, is the Sapphire delta going to be higher? It's already become the most desirable. There's no doubt that a specific card can jump out ahead of the pack like Sapphire did, but that increase was before it became the card to own. My issue is with people talking about delta being significantly higher among the already most desirable rares(Black, Sapphire, etc). It's much different than a prediction of a specific card catapulting to Sapphire level

I think you are confusing delta (a measure of movement of asset vs it’s option pricing) vs beta (relative movement vs market movement).

I wrote a longer article on this with input from and shared w/some of the more investor minds on here privately. They encouraged me not to post it publicly... but I feel fine sharing bits of it.

I have some time later to help think about this specific situation.

But you can do some simple tests: as Acuna was moving up and then down in the 2nd half of the season, how much did his Sapphire base prices move? And how much did his very rare parallels in core product move? I haven’t done the math, but you can get an approximate beta pretty easily.

Given supply of sapphire is 10-25x more than these rarer parallels, you would have to assume there are 10-25x buyers at the same prices to generate a beta that is equal to the smaller print runs. And even more buyers to have higher beta, or fewer buyers to have lower beta.

Beta tends to have curvature, so a linear approximation is not appropriate at the extremes, but probably fine in a +/- 2x scenario at least

This curvature is because the proportion of buyers able to spend is not linear as you go up and down (look at income distribution to get a sense of why this occurs)


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[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Wonder how many are still in boxes.

As far as I know, two or three sapphire reds sold on ebay and one sold here. The sealed 2018 TC Sapphire boxes are selling for close to $1500 now. At this price point, I would not be surprised if the remaining are still in sealed boxes.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by pewe

I think you are confusing delta (a measure of movement of asset vs it’s option pricing) vs beta (relative movement vs market movement).

The player's overall market is the asset. The underlying derivative of that market is the specific card is how I'm thinking of it. Beta is a volatility measure no?

[21Pittsburgh58]

Shut up smart guys! There ain't NO room for that kind of blibbity-blabbity alpha/beta asset/derivative speak in this hear thread.

Take it to a BM. I mean PM or IM or whatever 'M' y'all want to take it to!

It all come down to this: 1 card be available, 8 people want it. Who's got the most money? The end

Or I could be oversimplimifying it. To each do their own (in a purely platonic manner)

Love me some Ronnie ballplayer!

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by BBases31

The player's overall market is the asset. The underlying derivative of that market is the specific card is how I'm thinking of it. Beta is a volatility measure no?

pewe is right. Delta is used in stock options trading whereas beta refers to individual move in a stock or security compared to the market. Beta applies more to your question of individual Acuna card price movement compared to the overall Acuna market. Lets go back to Acuna....

[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by pewe

Beta tends to have curvature, so a linear approximation is not appropriate at the extremes, but probably fine in a +/- 2x scenario at least

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Weird Flex. Things that I thought I would never see in an Acuna cardboard thread for $500 Alex.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by BBases31

The player's overall market is the asset. The underlying derivative of that market is the specific card is how I'm thinking of it. Beta is a volatility measure no?

Agree re: player's overall market

But the term delta is really used in comparing an asset to its options: https://www.investopedia.com/article.../03/021403.asp

Whereas Alpha and Beta are usually used to piece out:
-- Alpha - returns by beating the market
-- Beta - portion of return attributable to the movement of the market: https://www.investopedia.com/investing/beta-know-risk/

If you take three "Acuna market" assets, and you discover they have these betas:
-- 1.0 = US250 base
-- 1.5 = US250 black #/67
-- 0.8 = US252 base

And the "Acuna market" as a whole moved up by 2x, the resulting price change of the outcome cards should be
-- 2x = US250 base
-- 3x = US250 black #/67
-- 1.6x = US252 base

So essentially it tracks what you are looking for, I think... which cards move more vs. others as the underlying "Acuna market" goes one direction or the other.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by 21Pittsburgh58

It all come down to this: 1 card be available, 8 people want it. Who's got the most money? The end

If the card is considered to be worth more than each of those people have, and are willing to spend, then "yes"

But for most cards, their price is below our means. So we spend at what we think the card is "worth"

What its "worth" certainly differs person to person, but at least a "rational buyer" (to use stock market terms) probably compares it to things like:
-- other cards they could have
-- other prior sales
-- future expectations about the player
-- etc.

Then does their personal calculus and makes a decision about what a "fair price" / what they "willing to pay" is.

If they can get it for that price or less, they buy, if they can not then they don't.

[dizzydolse]

Originally Posted by pewe

Agree re: player's overall market

But the term delta is really used in comparing an asset to its options: https://www.investopedia.com/article.../03/021403.asp

Whereas Alpha and Beta are usually used to piece out:
-- Alpha - returns by beating the market
-- Beta - portion of return attributable to the movement of the market: https://www.investopedia.com/investing/beta-know-risk/

If you take three "Acuna market" assets, and you discover they have these betas:
-- 1.0 = US250 base
-- 1.5 = US250 black #/67
-- 0.8 = US252 base

And the "Acuna market" as a whole moved up by 2x, the resulting price change of the outcome cards should be
-- 2x = US250 base
-- 3x = US250 black #/67
-- 1.6x = US252 base

So essentially it tracks what you are looking for, I think... which cards move more vs. others as the underlying "Acuna market" goes one direction or the other.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by dizzydolse

I feel bad for you - has life been difficult?

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by pewe

I feel bad for you - has life been difficult?

oh my!

[KhalDrogo]

Trying to rationalize an irrational market will not turn out well.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Trying to rationalize an irrational market will not turn out well.

But remains fun to try


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[BBases31]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Trying to rationalize an irrational market will not turn out well.

Is this just your blanket response to any logical examination of why prices move like they do? This was one of the better back and forths I've had on here

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by pewe

But remains fun to try


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He's always grumpy