First Buzz: 2020-21 Panini Prizm basketball cards

[Howie7107]

Ridiculous hobby prices aside, this is probably going to be the first retail that I probably won't catch a sniff of. We had a good run in rural USA, but it's gotten insane even here. There's now a group of 18 year old kids who camp in the WM aisles Thursday and Friday around us, a shop owners wife who spends all day running between the two, and a handful of other characters you usually have to split with as well.

Guess I can't knock it because flipping some allowed me to collect still while I was in between finishing school and starting work, but it's hard not to feel bad for these people having nothing better to do than spend their entire Thursday/Friday to make a couple hundred bucks, if that.

[Stech36]

Originally Posted by Howie7107

Ridiculous hobby prices aside, this is probably going to be the first retail that I probably won't catch a sniff of. We had a good run in rural USA, but it's gotten insane even here. There's now a group of 18 year old kids who camp in the WM aisles Thursday and Friday around us, a shop owners wife who spends all day running between the two, and a handful of other characters you usually have to split with as well.

Guess I can't knock it because flipping some allowed me to collect still while I was in between finishing school and starting work, but it's hard not to feel bad for these people having nothing better to do than spend their entire Thursday/Friday to make a couple hundred bucks, if that.

A couple hundred bucks? Is that all you think they’re making?

[Wildcat55]

Originally Posted by Howie7107

Ridiculous hobby prices aside, this is probably going to be the first retail that I probably won't catch a sniff of. We had a good run in rural USA, but it's gotten insane even here. There's now a group of 18 year old kids who camp in the WM aisles Thursday and Friday around us, a shop owners wife who spends all day running between the two, and a handful of other characters you usually have to split with as well.

Guess I can't knock it because flipping some allowed me to collect still while I was in between finishing school and starting work, but it's hard not to feel bad for these people having nothing better to do than spend their entire Thursday/Friday to make a couple hundred bucks, if that.

If you’re an 18 year old kid, or still in high school, what are your options these days? Make $10 an hour at a fast food joint or spend a few hours sitting around on your phone to make a couple hundred? You have to work your butt off for about 20 hours to make the same amount of money as you do sitting around watching TikTok videos at WM or Target, all before taxes vs. selling on FB Marketplace or OfferUp for cash. Then after the score, you fire up the DoorDash app and make a few deliveries for additional cash and quit whenever you feel like it. That’s the current work environment for a lot of kids and as much as I hate flippers, it’s something I probably would be doing if I was that age...
My days of bagging groceries and working at restaurants sucked and I would have loved to be able to not only make my own schedule, but make more money as well.

[Howie7107]

Originally Posted by Stech36

A couple hundred bucks? Is that all you think they’re making?

Yeah splitting 2 WMs 6+ ways doesn't really come out all that well after shipping and fees, especially on a week like this one. I'm sure they're not factoring for eBay returns or taxes either, but those are obviously a concern as well. You're also in fairly bad shape if all of a sudden you miss out on one of those stores because they happen to stock at the same time.

I guess in short, I'm getting at that it's no longer worth my time to spend hours waiting once you start splitting that many ways everywhere. Frankly, once the splits get that large it's sort of sad that it's worth anyone's time.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

Plus who cares what the floor is? It won't get there anyway. If Panini put the floor at $350 and it sold out at $3700 would you be any less upset mossoholic?

There is no chance in hell it sells out at $3700. There are too many boxes for starters. Look at every FOTL over the last 9 months. Sell out is based on 2 things. First is the bs preorder hobby prices. Second is the floor. If the floor was $350 I think FOTL, with there being 6600 boxes, could hit $2000. With the floor at $2000 there is 0% chance it hits the bottom. Look at every online exclusive dutch auction. Why do they go for so much less than FOTL? Tons of boxes, no bs preorder hobby price from the big 3, and an MSRP floor price.

Whether any product can or will hit the floor price the floor should always be MSRP. I was the biggest defender of the dutch auctions until this garbage making the floor 1.5-10 times MSRP. Started with NT basketball. Yeah lets give 1000+ cases of NT hobby to the big 3 for $750 or less while charging $7500 minimum for NT FOTL. Brilliant

[codered]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

There is no chance in hell it sells out at $3700. There are too many boxes for starters. Look at every FOTL over the last 9 months. Sell out is based on 2 things. First is the bs preorder hobby prices. Second is the floor. If the floor was $350 I think FOTL, with there being 6600 boxes,could hit $2000. With the floor at $2000 there is 0% chance it hits the bottom. Look at every online exclusive dutch auction. Why do they go for so much less than FOTL? Tons of boxes, no bs preorder hobby price from the big 3, and an MSRP floor price.

Whether any product can or will hit the floor price the floor should always be MSRP. I was the biggest defender of the dutch auctions until this garbage making the floor 1.5-10 times MSRP. Started with NT basketball. Yeah lets give 1000+ cases of NT hobby to the big 3 for $750 or less while charging $7500 minimum for NT FOTL. Brilliant

Not sure where you are getting 6600 boxes. Even if there is a shimmer to /35, a gold /10 and black /1 that’s 6900 boxes if they only have shimmer exclusives for the base set. You’ll most likely see multiple color shimmers (last years had blue, green, gold and black) with various/# and possibly autographed shimmers like last year. 2017 prizm has inserts that had fotl shimmer Parallels. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was closer to 12,000 fotl boxes this year. They are gonna print the hell out of this.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by codered

Not sure where you are getting 6600 boxes. Even if there is a shimmer to /35, a gold /10 and black /1 that’s 6900 boxes if they only have shimmer exclusives for the base set. You’ll most likely see multiple color shimmers (last years had blue, green, gold and black) with various/# and possibly autographed shimmers like last year. 2017 prizm has inserts that had fotl shimmer Parallels. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was closer to 12,000 fotl boxes this year. They are gonna print the hell out of this.

Yeah my original number should of been 6900. You're making my point look better. 6,900 or 12,000+ boxes either way where this is going to sell out at is a bad buy. You will be better off buying any sku of retail, besides maybe loose cellos, at resale prices after a few weeks. If everything goes up later on, hobby and FOTL will go up the least.

[phil]

Originally Posted by Stech36

An LCS owner thinks Topps is terrible because they aren’t able to overproduce as much this year (lots of retail has been cancelled). So in the end he is getting less to sell.

My thought is the opposite. Topps is great and this will help keep them from overproducing, while panini runs the presses full steam

Topps isn't cancelling retail releases intentionally. They are still having printer issues related to covid and have a months long back up so had to prioritize what they print. If they could they would be printing the hell out of everything just like Panini, and they eventually will.

[Allamericancard]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

Yeah my original number should of been 6900. You're making my point look better. 6,900 or 12,000+ boxes either way where this is going to sell out at is a bad buy. You will be better off buying any sku of retail, besides maybe loose cellos, at resale prices after a few weeks. If everything goes up later on, hobby and FOTL will go up the least.

Agreed on the retail point. Pay 4k for fotl or buy 190 blasters at retail......your probably alot closer to making your money back on that retail. Now it's another story if you could find 190 boxes of retail lol

[Jumpin Astros]

So FOTL auction is Tuesday, yet hobby doesn't release for another month+? WTH?? This release very well may be the one that causes the basketball market to crash. By the time Hobby and all the other SKUs hit, prices for all the singles will be so low that the hobby box price is going to crash big time. Wow! So everyone tries to buy FOTL, those who open quick flip the rookies, prices for the rookies go down 75% from start. At this point people who want to open Prizm hobby have already gotten their fix from FOTL and will move on to other products like select which now has a release date two weeks before Prizm. This move by Panini and the market reaction will definitely be interesting to watch play out.

[mavmonkey]

Has anyone seen a checklist yet?


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[armyml]

Originally Posted by Jumpin Astros

So FOTL auction is Tuesday, yet hobby doesn't release for another month+? WTH?? This release very well may be the one that causes the basketball market to crash. By the time Hobby and all the other SKUs hit, prices for all the singles will be so low that the hobby box price is going to crash big time. Wow! So everyone tries to buy FOTL, those who open quick flip the rookies, prices for the rookies go down 75% from start. At this point people who want to open Prizm hobby have already gotten their fix from FOTL and will move on to other products like select which now has a release date two weeks before Prizm. This move by Panini and the market reaction will definitely be interesting to watch play out.

I don't know where you've been man, and I'm sure there are going to be a few high sales of singles right after the release of FOTL, but no way Lamelo prizm rookies are going to see a 75% decrease from the start. Its just not going to happen.

[noaskiecards]

Saw this on reddit

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[kyle121592]

Originally Posted by Jumpin Astros

So FOTL auction is Tuesday, yet hobby doesn't release for another month+? WTH?? This release very well may be the one that causes the basketball market to crash. By the time Hobby and all the other SKUs hit, prices for all the singles will be so low that the hobby box price is going to crash big time. Wow! So everyone tries to buy FOTL, those who open quick flip the rookies, prices for the rookies go down 75% from start. At this point people who want to open Prizm hobby have already gotten their fix from FOTL and will move on to other products like select which now has a release date two weeks before Prizm. This move by Panini and the market reaction will definitely be interesting to watch play out.

Hobby release is 3/31 unless it got pushed within the past day or two

[baseballbunez]

Originally Posted by Jumpin Astros

So FOTL auction is Tuesday, yet hobby doesn't release for another month+? WTH?? This release very well may be the one that causes the basketball market to crash. By the time Hobby and all the other SKUs hit, prices for all the singles will be so low that the hobby box price is going to crash big time. Wow! So everyone tries to buy FOTL, those who open quick flip the rookies, prices for the rookies go down 75% from start. At this point people who want to open Prizm hobby have already gotten their fix from FOTL and will move on to other products like select which now has a release date two weeks before Prizm. This move by Panini and the market reaction will definitely be interesting to watch play out.

Prizm hobby releases March 31st, confirmed by Panini. And retail likely pushed back, so FOTL and hobby will have time to shine

[smalltown]

Originally Posted by Allamericancard

Agreed on the retail point. Pay 4k for fotl or buy 190 blasters at retail......your probably alot closer to making your money back on that retail. Now it's another story if you could find 190 boxes of retail lol

You're probably doing better on a Dozen blasters or 5-6 Megas than the majority of single FOTL boxes.

[Jumpin Astros]

Originally Posted by kyle121592

Hobby release is 3/31 unless it got pushed within the past day or two

BO just changed the release date yesterday from 3/31 to 4/28.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by Jumpin Astros

BO just changed the release date yesterday from 3/31 to 4/28.

Probably a mistake. Maybe they meant the Fast Break or some other SKU. Panini wouldn't do FOTL a month before release.

[TimBuckTwo]

Originally Posted by Jumpin Astros

So FOTL auction is Tuesday, yet hobby doesn't release for another month+? WTH?? This release very well may be the one that causes the basketball market to crash. By the time Hobby and all the other SKUs hit, prices for all the singles will be so low that the hobby box price is going to crash big time. Wow! So everyone tries to buy FOTL, those who open quick flip the rookies, prices for the rookies go down 75% from start. At this point people who want to open Prizm hobby have already gotten their fix from FOTL and will move on to other products like select which now has a release date two weeks before Prizm. This move by Panini and the market reaction will definitely be interesting to watch play out.

Sorry just read the other posts. All good.

[Grizzkid12]

Originally Posted by baseballbunez

Prizm hobby releases March 31st, confirmed by Panini. And retail likely pushed back, so FOTL and hobby will have time to shine

Any idea where Panini confirmed this recently?

I see BO still has it listed at 4/28 and just saw another seller that has the 4/28 date for Hobby as well.

Seems weird multiple sellers would have the same error

[Pathora]

Originally Posted by Grizzkid12

Any idea where Panini confirmed this recently?

I see BO still has it listed at 4/28 and just saw another seller that has the 4/28 date for Hobby as well.

Seems weird multiple sellers would have the same error

FOTL is on Panini's website for Tuesday.

[Jumpin Astros]

Panini has FOTL release on Tuesday, no mention of hobby release date on their website, just coming soon.

[dunkindutchmen]

If FOTL is Tuesday I don't see how the 3-31 hobby release doesn't happen.

[Jumpin Astros]

Originally Posted by dunkindutchmen

If FOTL is Tuesday I don't see how the 3-31 hobby release doesn't happen.

It would be weird, but definitely possible with the current situation at the printers.

Panini is over a month behind printing Optic FB, Hoops BK, Prizm EPL and Contenders FB for retail companies besides WM and Target. If Panini needs the revenue for 1st qtr projections, it would be very possible that FOTL is the only Prizm SKU Panini can print right now with how far backed up they are.

For those not aware, Panini doesn't print all of a product at one time. They do it in batches that run on a schedule. It would be very weird if FOTL and hobby release a few weeks apart. However, given the situation at the printer, Panini might need to do it this way to keep the revenue flowing as projected.

[PostBaloney]

Next year a box of Prizm gOnNa cost more than my truck


Panini some greedy mofos can’t wait to watch it bite them in the asse. Release a new product ever week for $3k box let’s see how long that works.