Luka Doncic Questionable Autograph Analysis

[gameissued]

Slim to none chance he's trying to be very very careful to keep in all in the border. The thin tip size of those pens actually makes it very simple to keep it all within the margins of a sticker. Take Damian Lillard's signature as an example and they seem to come out pretty nice on stickers. Try it out yourself and you'll know what I mean. It would be a lot quicker and easier to just sign a small version of his normal signature than to change it all up to a nice clean Lulu.

Secretary or "ghost" signers have been around for ages so it shouldn't be a huge shock when it actually happens. If someone is faking hundreds of auto cards and stickers they are bound to get a decent number of them to look pretty spot on. So cherry picking one of those and matching them up to a single known real one isn't difficult and you can't just assume because one looks good, the rest of them are good too.

Originally Posted by sjay2k

The example you posted doesn't fit the dimensions of a sticker. He would constantly fly off the top and bottom of the sticker if he signed like that. You should try signing on some stickers. You really do need to be careful.

And the old UD autos aren't really relevant, other than that the style is generally similar.

[theLUCKYshow]

Even if Luka was using someone else to sign his autos, it is very clear to me that the person signs according to the space. Let's take a look at some examples. These are all autos that are considered fakes by a lot of people.

^sticker auto (smaller space leads to more ovalish and squished Ls) ^Revolution (strong slant and narrow Ls run alongside the angle of the signing area)^Silhouettes(elongated especially between the lu's and the size of the L is influenced by the space)^Contenders (narrow Ls to fit narrower space) ^Optic (very loopy and spaced)
These examples are pretty representative of how the person signs throughout each product. There are stark differences from product to product, and much of the on card variance can be explained by the signing area such as the elongated "lulu" for his Silhouettes, or the narrow Ls on his Contenders. If the signer isnt signing based on the space, the only other explanation I can think of is there are multiple forgers.

One point OP has made is that Luka changed his signature entering the NBA to the scribbley version found in Next Day. Why is it so crazy to think Luka would clean up his auto a bit after those awful scribbles, and that his new auto would resemble his old auto from Real Madrid? Maybe someone told him to take some pride in his signature. It's not that crazy of a notion. Remember, Luka has mostly signed the loopy handsy style throughout his career, and his scribbly all-fingers auto is uncommon in comparison. When he fell on that boy during an NBA game in December, Luka was back to signing loopy and angled like this:

We also have some recent signed balls that can look loopy like this:
And this:
But he still squiggles sometimes (kinda like in optic?):
And to finish with my weakest point, Luka seems like a decent kid based on how he's treated fans, players, media, etc. Those who say he's not signing are basically saying he has questionable ethics, and his mother couldn't care less about right and wrong to please her son. Maybe you guys are right, but there's also a possibility that Luka takes his time signing his autos, especially the sticker-autos but also some of his rarer cards as well. He's probably smart enough to know which cards are the special ones. Let's finish with some high-end Luka beauties, all of which have slower pen speeds and pristine legibility. Clearly there was care put into these, be it from a forger or more likely imo Luka himself.


Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[pgisback]

The Optics definitely hurt the mom theory because it's a mixture of the condensed sticker full Lulu and the in person tall slanted L's. Which could easily be explained by the signature surface dimensions.

[superdan49]

Originally Posted by pgisback

The Optics definitely hurt the mom theory because it's a mixture of the condensed sticker full Lulu and the in person tall slanted L's. Which could easily be explained by the signature surface dimensions.

Or his Mom is getting better at signing her son's name.

[sjay2k]

I love how the theory includes Luka’s mum because it adds just that extra layer of baseless speculation

[RogerGodahell]

Are these L's big enough?

Screenshot 2019-01-30 at 8.02.52 PM by Roger Godahell, on Flickr

[sjay2k]

So which of these LeBron autos are forgeries? All signed when LeBron was about the same age as all of the Luka autos in this thread....

https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/z84AA...jS/s-l1600.jpg

https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/8LsAA...SVw/s-l500.jpg

https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/f6cAA...Cy/s-l1600.jpg

https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/iAgAA...kr/s-l1600.jpg

https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/1HMAA...Sa/s-l1600.jpg

[HenryLee]

Here is the auto I just obtained in person from Luka at MSG before the Knicks Mavs game






Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[sjay2k]

He didn't even sign the first "u" - must mean all his cards are forgeries

[Yaz1966]

Originally Posted by RogerGodahell

Are these L's big enough?

Screenshot 2019-01-30 at 8.02.52 PM by Roger Godahell, on Flickr

If you really think it's only about how big the L's are then you haven't been reading this thread at all

[rogermaris]

Originally Posted by Yaz1966

If you really think it's only about how big the L's are then you haven't been reading this thread at all

He knows. Unfortunately for him and several others in this thread, it's abundantly clear that their motive is not to have an intellectually honest debate that seeks to get to the truth of the matter. Their goal to play defense attorney and poke as many holes in my analysis as possible in order to protect their investment. And that being a natural human reaction, I have a hard time judging them for it. It just makes it all the more difficult to converse with the people who actually want to have an honest dialectic.

But ya, that's why you see people claiming that this thread is libel and shouldn't be allowed. That's also why you see some people cherry picking the points they want to respond to and ignoring all the others.

Not that there haven't been plenty of people who have made good, valid points against my analysis. It's far from perfect and relies on a lot of subjective criteria and inferences. And you can't draw anything 100% certain from it. But my goal with creating this thread was to start a dialogue that would hopefully build on what I'd started. Maybe that was a little naive...

[sjay2k]

What are your thoughts on those LeBron rookie year autos above?

Would be nice if you engaged in the “dialogue” that you’re talking about

[rogermaris]

Originally Posted by sjay2k

What are your thoughts on those LeBron rookie year autos above?

Would be nice if you engaged in the “dialogue” that you’re talking about

This is called gish galloping. It's a form of the intellectual dishonesty that I was just referring to. You can do this with any player who has variations in their autographs. I'm not going to sit here and spend the next month creating a dedicated analysis of every player who has ever varied the way they sign their autograph.

I've already said players change their autographs and can have wide variations. I've already explained why this situation is distinct to me. I'm not going to keep repeating it over and over.

[theLUCKYshow]

I tried to clean up my rushed post from earlier.

RogerMaris do you at least agree that whoever is signing these cards is heavily influenced by the signing area?
Or do you think there are multiple forgers involved?

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[rogermaris]

Originally Posted by theLUCKYshow

I tried to clean up my rushed post from earlier.

RogerMaris do you at least agree that whoever is signing these cards is heavily influenced by the signing area?
Or do you think there are multiple forgers involved?

All the questionable autos are extremely consistent with one another and definitely written by the same hand IMO. The question is whether its Doncic's.

As for the signing area, I totally agree that there are general differences. Most signers will adjust the size and spacing of their autographs depending on the signing area. Although both the questionable on-card and sticker L U L U autos are generally different dimensions, they nonetheless retain the same basic handwriting features. The main difference seems to be that the questionable sticker autos are shortened vertically but not horizontally when compared to their on card counterparts, giving them the appearance of being squished slightly from above.

[theLUCKYshow]

With most of Lukas verified loopy autos, he has signed his last "u" in a downstroke like on this ball: and like this:and on some of his more legible Next Days:
On his sticker-autos and other questioned autos before Optic, the last "u" always curled up like this:or this: The curled up "u" adds a feminine touch to the overall aesthetic of the auto, and it plays a part in why people think Lukas mom signs his basketball cards.

Well a bunch of Luka Optic autos have now surfaced with the downstroke "u". These are the first downstroke "u"s Ive seen on his questioned autos. Let's take a look:




This is some pretty compelling stuff in my opinion. That downstroke "u" on these Optic autos seems like a perfect match to some of his verified autos, and the rest of the auto (l u l) is a match with the questioned Luka autos.

What do the guys think?

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[RogerGodahell]

Are you a forensic hand writing expert?

[RogerGodahell]

Originally Posted by rogermaris

He knows. Unfortunately for him and several others in this thread, it's abundantly clear that their motive is not to have an intellectually honest debate that seeks to get to the truth of the matter. Their goal to play defense attorney and poke as many holes in my analysis as possible in order to protect their investment. And that being a natural human reaction, I have a hard time judging them for it. It just makes it all the more difficult to converse with the people who actually want to have an honest dialectic.

But ya, that's why you see people claiming that this thread is libel and shouldn't be allowed. That's also why you see some people cherry picking the points they want to respond to and ignoring all the others.

Not that there haven't been plenty of people who have made good, valid points against my analysis. It's far from perfect and relies on a lot of subjective criteria and inferences. And you can't draw anything 100% certain from it. But my goal with creating this thread was to start a dialogue that would hopefully build on what I'd started. Maybe that was a little naive...

Im not going to lose sleep over a few 2018-19 basketball cases. That i can guarantee you.

[theLUCKYshow]

Originally Posted by RogerGodahell

Are you a forensic hand writing expert?

I can hire one for $995. Considering it just to see what they say.



Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[IndySportsCards]

Luka's mom's name doesn't happen to be Lulu right?

[COMCMax]

Most of the Optic have been Lulu's so far. Has anyone just tweeted him. He's pretty active on Twitter.

This ones a little different.

Luka Doncic 2018-19 Optic Rated Rookie RC Auto Mavericks b

[COMCMax]

Originally Posted by IndySportsCards

Luka's mom's name doesn't happen to be Lulu right?

Mirjam Poterbin

[RogerGodahell]

Originally Posted by COMCMax

Most of the Optic have been Lulu's so far. Has anyone just tweeted him. He's pretty active on Twitter.

This ones a little different.

Luka Doncic 2018-19 Optic Rated Rookie RC Auto Mavericks b

Yes i've actually tried asking him twice but i haven't gotten a response.

[theLUCKYshow]

Originally Posted by COMCMax

Most of the Optic have been Lulu's so far. Has anyone just tweeted him. He's pretty active on Twitter.

This ones a little different.

Luka Doncic 2018-19 Optic Rated Rookie RC Auto Mavericks b

I've reached out via a post through IG to Luka and Panini but nothing.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[bjho852]

As of now, which hard-signed ones do you all think are good? Only the Next Day cards?