Sports betting thread - Page 89

chippv · 08-22-2020, 07:18 PM

Had a decent day so far hit with the bucks and heat in bball. And had a feeling with my pirates the worst team in MLB and crush it. Taking the Lakers tonight and the under. Plus sucker bet LeBron triple double +170 edit going with LeBron as top scorer +300 better value

clipperboy24 · 08-22-2020, 10:45 PM

Wow, the blazers just flamed out bad. Basically scored 16 points in the 4th before garbage time the last minute. Absolutely crushed my over bets, I should have hedged but I was watching my baseball bets, such a bummer. Then I got smoked on prop bets, had Whiteside for 10.5 points and 9.5 rebounds, looked great at half time. So painful, thankfully I hit the Baltimore live moneyline when they were down 3-1.

I really gotta stop the NBA prop bets, so bad for my bank roll. Anyone have success with them?

JMarchand1981 · 08-23-2020, 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by clipperboy24

Wow, the blazers just flamed out bad. Basically scored 16 points in the 4th before garbage time the last minute. Absolutely crushed my over bets, I should have hedged but I was watching my baseball bets, such a bummer. Then I got smoked on prop bets, had Whiteside for 10.5 points and 9.5 rebounds, looked great at half time. So painful, thankfully I hit the Baltimore live moneyline when they were down 3-1.

I really gotta stop the NBA prop bets, so bad for my bank roll. Anyone have success with them?

I had the lakers big (for me) in that game. I hedged the entire bet when Portland was +2000 late in the fourth. Portland definitely flamed out down the stretch. They were in the game until then.

seabass97166 · 08-23-2020, 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by clipperboy24

I really gotta stop the NBA prop bets, so bad for my bank roll. Anyone have success with them?

Prop bets have limits because sharps can expose bad numbers behind data and models. A really good sharp prop bettor makes about ~10% of total risk over time. It means taking the under 95% of the time. It’s not sexy, and hard to watch, but they make money.

clipperboy24 · 08-23-2020, 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by seabass97166

Prop bets have limits because sharps can expose bad numbers behind data and models. A really good sharp prop bettor makes about ~10% of total risk over time. It means taking the under 95% of the time. It’s not sexy, and hard to watch, but they make money.

So it’s interesting and I went thru all my prop bets last night, (way too many of them btw), and the unders were my most successful consistently across the board, but I actually did the best in predicting 3pt made and also steals and blocks. Points rebounds and assist were just brutal.

clipperboy24 · 08-23-2020, 12:16 PM

Also, I’ve been getting smoked on moneylines that I forget to hedge (take too many positions on different games). I get the direction right but if I don’t hedge it will lose. Last night is a perfect example, I started hitting the Rockies at +300 all the way down to +150, and I didn’t hedge even though the dodgers were +120 for a very short time late in the game.

Any good strategies people would recommend?

Another bet that I do love is the Alternate total Spread I have hit Quite a few that are +500-+1500 when I know a team is trending too hot or too cold and pick a turnaround

JMarchand1981 · 08-23-2020, 03:25 PM

Trying to get out of the funk. I had the Celtics and the over today, that worked.

Now I have the clips minus six. They are up by 15 but there is three quarters left.

fidrych · 08-23-2020, 10:20 PM

Couple questions for the masses.

1) Whats the popular choice for an on line account? Anything I should know ahead of time?

2) Can someone tell me odds on Indians to win World Series?

Please and thanks in advance/

clipperboy24 · 08-23-2020, 10:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fidrych

Couple questions for the masses.

1) Whats the popular choice for an on line account? Anything I should know ahead of time?

2) Can someone tell me odds on Indians to win World Series?

Please and thanks in advance/

Depends what state you are in. For Colorado, indiana and New Jersey, FanDuel, BetMGM and DraftKings are great options. They have different lines and a lot of promos. FanDuel I don’t like how often they move odds down on bets, but overall they are good.

Also, I got the Indians at +2000 last night to win the World Series so bet $100 win $2000

fidrych · 08-24-2020, 06:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by clipperboy24

Depends what state you are in. For Colorado, indiana and New Jersey, FanDuel, BetMGM and DraftKings are great options. They have different lines and a lot of promos. FanDuel I don’t like how often they move odds down on bets, but overall they are good.

Also, I got the Indians at +2000 last night to win the World Series so bet $100 win $2000

I am in Wisconsin. Any trouble getting your money out? length of time?

I like your bet. So 20-1 or so.

AlexHunter · 08-24-2020, 08:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fidrych

I am in Wisconsin. Any trouble getting your money out? length of time?

I like your bet. So 20-1 or so.

Yup 20-1. Whenever you see a +###### or just drop off two zeroes and that’s your odds.

If you have a golfer who has +25000 you drop two zeroes and he’s 250-1.

All of the +170 and +150 type spreads you see on money lines would be 1.7-1 and 1.5-1.

On the flip side, if you’re betting something that uses the #-# type system, you can also just add on two zeroes and get the +#### odds. A 6-1 horse is (+600) to win, a 3/2 horse is +150 etc.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalky

AlexHunter · 08-24-2020, 08:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by clipperboy24

Wow, the blazers just flamed out bad. Basically scored 16 points in the 4th before garbage time the last minute. Absolutely crushed my over bets, I should have hedged but I was watching my baseball bets, such a bummer. Then I got smoked on prop bets, had Whiteside for 10.5 points and 9.5 rebounds, looked great at half time. So painful, thankfully I hit the Baltimore live moneyline when they were down 3-1.

I really gotta stop the NBA prop bets, so bad for my bank roll. Anyone have success with them?

Yes they’ve been my bread and butter for the bubble and playoffs actually. Luka overs, lebron Unders, spida overs, siakam Unders, Jokic REBs, Nurkic REBs, AD blocks.... I’ve been slaughtered on game O/U and Spreads. I’ve missed so many spreads by 1.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

AlexHunter · 08-24-2020, 08:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fidrych

Couple questions for the masses.

1) Whats the popular choice for an on line account? Anything I should know ahead of time?

2) Can someone tell me odds on Indians to win World Series?

Please and thanks in advance/

Also- I still use Bovada.lv as an offshore option.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

clipperboy24 · 08-24-2020, 09:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlexHunter

Yes they’ve been my bread and butter for the bubble and playoffs actually. Luka overs, lebron Unders, spida overs, siakam Unders, Jokic REBs, Nurkic REBs, AD blocks.... I’ve been slaughtered on game O/U and Spreads. I’ve missed so many spreads by 1.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Last night I hit the total point spread pretty big with long shot over on the Jazz vs Nuggets game and Clippers vs Mavs.

Also hit the moneyline Nicely on the Mavs started betting at +450 all the way to +1500. I almost bet $500 at +1500 when the Mavs were down 21 but didn’t pull the trigger. I have been spending way too much time betting and it was going to be a last hurrahs bet, oh well. As a clippers fan I have seen that scenario unfold too much, normally I wouldn’t be looking at betting big on the underdog down 21

seabass97166 · 08-24-2020, 09:26 AM

nice..

patchgenie · 08-24-2020, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fidrych

I am in Wisconsin. Any trouble getting your money out? length of time?

I like your bet. So 20-1 or so.

draftkings takes awhile to pay. fox bet is close to instant. i would do fox bet if that was a choice.

JMarchand1981 · 08-24-2020, 05:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by patchgenie

draftkings takes awhile to pay. fox bet is close to instant. i would do fox bet if that was a choice.

I use draft kings. It takes a few days but the money is right as rain.

JMarchand1981 · 08-24-2020, 05:53 PM

Just more than doubled my money on the thunder. That was a good extension of my slump busting.

clipperboy24 · 08-25-2020, 08:57 AM

Lakers blazers hitting the alternate over really helped. I had gone over on the Bucks magic and only won one of the alternate picks. Thunder rockets hit about half the overs I picked and the heat and pacers I mistakenly only went over, should have added a few unders.

Today I have a parlay of over jazz nuggets and under clippers Mavs and an over jazz nuggets and under clippers Mavs, each pay out around +1250 so hopefully can get one of them

tcdyess · 08-25-2020, 09:01 AM

I took the over in the Lakers game last night, figured on Mamba day Lebron was going to fill the bucket...

clipperboy24 · 08-25-2020, 04:26 PM

If anyone has the Betmgm app, there is an interesting prop bet. Kawhi Leonard 5+ turnovers is +750. In the regular season he doesn’t have as many turnovers but his usage goes way up in the playoffs and he usually has one or two games per series when his turnover really rise. A lot of times it’s with a big scoring game and this might be a big game for him.

I am betting $70 on it, hope it pays off ��

JMarchand1981 · 08-25-2020, 06:12 PM

I have:

Nuggets ML +116
Bruins ML -109
Parlay of Tsitsipas and Raonic -168

AlexHunter · 08-26-2020, 02:42 PM

Hit mertens in 2 and osaka in 3.

Missed Bautista in 2

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

JMarchand1981 · 08-26-2020, 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JMarchand1981

I have:

Nuggets ML +116
Bruins ML -109
Parlay of Tsitsipas and Raonic -168

Won loss win here.

Being a bruins fan,I hedged that and took the bolts at even my money tonight.

JMarchand1981 · 09-01-2020, 07:32 PM

Did anyone see the draft kings promo

Chiefs plus 101 points at -110 odds, max bet $50. It's a no brainer.

08-22-2020, 07:18 PM	#2201
chippv Member Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 7,349	Had a decent day so far hit with the bucks and heat in bball. And had a feeling with my pirates the worst team in MLB and crush it. Taking the Lakers tonight and the under. Plus sucker bet LeBron triple double +170 edit going with LeBron as top scorer +300 better value __________________ Always looking for Steelers, penguin and some pirate rookies Last edited by chippv; 08-22-2020 at 07:22 PM. Reason: Add content

08-22-2020, 10:45 PM	#2202
clipperboy24 Member Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 4,628	Wow, the blazers just flamed out bad. Basically scored 16 points in the 4th before garbage time the last minute. Absolutely crushed my over bets, I should have hedged but I was watching my baseball bets, such a bummer. Then I got smoked on prop bets, had Whiteside for 10.5 points and 9.5 rebounds, looked great at half time. So painful, thankfully I hit the Baltimore live moneyline when they were down 3-1. I really gotta stop the NBA prop bets, so bad for my bank roll. Anyone have success with them? __________________ Looking for nice cards of Mfiondu Kabengele Last edited by clipperboy24; 08-22-2020 at 10:48 PM.

08-23-2020, 12:16 PM	#2206
clipperboy24 Member Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 4,628	Also, I’ve been getting smoked on moneylines that I forget to hedge (take too many positions on different games). I get the direction right but if I don’t hedge it will lose. Last night is a perfect example, I started hitting the Rockies at +300 all the way down to +150, and I didn’t hedge even though the dodgers were +120 for a very short time late in the game. Any good strategies people would recommend? Another bet that I do love is the Alternate total Spread I have hit Quite a few that are +500-+1500 when I know a team is trending too hot or too cold and pick a turnaround __________________ Looking for nice cards of Mfiondu Kabengele

08-24-2020, 09:26 AM	#2215
seabass97166 Banned Join Date: Feb 2015 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 10,685	nice.. Last edited by seabass97166; 08-24-2020 at 09:30 AM.

08-25-2020, 08:57 AM	#2219
clipperboy24 Member Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 4,628	Lakers blazers hitting the alternate over really helped. I had gone over on the Bucks magic and only won one of the alternate picks. Thunder rockets hit about half the overs I picked and the heat and pacers I mistakenly only went over, should have added a few unders. Today I have a parlay of over jazz nuggets and under clippers Mavs and an over jazz nuggets and under clippers Mavs, each pay out around +1250 so hopefully can get one of them __________________ Looking for nice cards of Mfiondu Kabengele

08-23-2020, 03:25 PM	#2207
JMarchand1981 Member Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 34,438	Trying to get out of the funk. I had the Celtics and the over today, that worked. Now I have the clips minus six. They are up by 15 but there is three quarters left.

08-23-2020, 10:20 PM	#2208
fidrych Member Join Date: May 2020 Location: NW Wisconsin Posts: 242	Couple questions for the masses. 1) Whats the popular choice for an on line account? Anything I should know ahead of time? 2) Can someone tell me odds on Indians to win World Series? Please and thanks in advance/

08-24-2020, 05:53 PM	#2218
JMarchand1981 Member Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 34,438	Just more than doubled my money on the thunder. That was a good extension of my slump busting.

08-25-2020, 09:01 AM	#2220
tcdyess Member Join Date: May 2020 Location: New Hampshire USA Posts: 1,139 tcdyess	I took the over in the Lakers game last night, figured on Mamba day Lebron was going to fill the bucket...

08-25-2020, 04:26 PM	#2221
clipperboy24 Member Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 4,628	If anyone has the Betmgm app, there is an interesting prop bet. Kawhi Leonard 5+ turnovers is +750. In the regular season he doesn’t have as many turnovers but his usage goes way up in the playoffs and he usually has one or two games per series when his turnover really rise. A lot of times it’s with a big scoring game and this might be a big game for him. I am betting $70 on it, hope it pays off �� __________________ Looking for nice cards of Mfiondu Kabengele

08-25-2020, 06:12 PM	#2222
JMarchand1981 Member Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 34,438	I have: Nuggets ML +116 Bruins ML -109 Parlay of Tsitsipas and Raonic -168

08-26-2020, 02:42 PM	#2223
AlexHunter Member Join Date: Aug 2018 Location: Portland Posts: 6,106 HiraharasCards AlexHunter	Hit mertens in 2 and osaka in 3. Missed Bautista in 2 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

09-01-2020, 07:32 PM	#2225
JMarchand1981 Member Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 34,438	Did anyone see the draft kings promo Chiefs plus 101 points at -110 odds, max bet $50. It's a no brainer.