**The Perennial MIKE TROUT Thread**

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by BigSeph

More advanced analytic stats that mean nothing.

Trout has 2 stolen bases this year, 6 SBs in the last 4 years.

Acuna has 41 stolen bases this year, 95 SBs in the last 4 years.

One guy performs well in invisible advanced stats, the other guy produces actual results.

Maybe in the year 2080 all the baseball fans will measure the greatness of players on sprint speed, WAR and OPS+

We can get our first no-doubt shoe in hall of famer when someone similar to Mike Trout comes out of the gate with a few great seasons and retires.

Flawless victory!

How fast a guy runs is an "advanced stat"? LOL

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by BigSeph

Since then he's put on a bunch of muscle and traded agility and range in the field for power at the plate. He's more of a log truck than a sports car now.

Mike Trout is still one of the fastest guys in baseball (96th percentile in sprint speed)

Log truck LOL

[towerymt]

Trout runs hard all the time while Acuna lollygags.

Are we reaching a different conclusion?

[Stifle]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

No he wouldn't, he would most likely be a great LF and any position adjustment loss will be made up in fWAR. Playing LF is much easier than playing CF.

First and foremost, if Jose Canseco and Reggie Jackson can both win a MVP for being shoddy fielders than it proves that hitting a baseball is what matters.

Trout can make incredible catches at the wall. He just doesn’t make the position
look easy. He struggles with balls in front of him and doesn’t always attain a quick start of the bat. He has struggled with the path to the ball. I’m not saying Clemente or Kaline. I’m saying Dwight Evans, Garry Maddox and Kevin Kiermaier would have landed Trout as a DH or a first baseman if he wanted to be on the field.

WAR “without any risk” is a accumulation stat. WAR doesn’t take into count situational baseball, therefore all situations are equal. If that were true, why was Trout pulled out before the 5th inning when the Angels were ahead 23-0. Why has Trout only stole roughly 5 bases in the past 4 season after nearly stealing 50 a decade ago in one season? If stealing a base is so valuable, why have the Angels put the cabbosh on him attempting stealing bases. The risk isn’t worth the reward.

WAR is a extremely flawed metric in equating value. Is Trout a great player, HOF player and outside of Y2K Barry Bonds in the mix, Pujols, Cabrera and Trout. You can have a flawed equation of value but Trout is still my 3rd best player in the Y2K era. I believe if Trout had the ability for availability, he would pass Miggy. If Trout had Post Season success of Pujols or Miggy, that would increase his legacy.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by BigSeph

Again, prior to the past week I always put a significant value on WAR when comparing players and looking at all-time greats.

But it's not the same as a hit, a HR, a SB, an amazing catch, a clutch playoff moment, etc.

Those are real things that happen on a baseball field.

WAR is not. It's a made-up stat that attempts to measure a player's run contribution compared to a mythical "average" player. It has so many arbitrary adjustments and baked-in fudge factors (like a free +2.5 defensive adjustment just for playing centerfield) that if you are simply a .250 hitter with 20 HRs per year and a .350 OBP, you are going to have 5+ WAR just by playing CF, C or SS. Go look at the top-20 dWAR list for 2023. It's full of catchers, shortstops and centerfielders.

That's where I jump off the Trout bandwagon. Andruw Jones got the same positional dWAR "bonus" as Trout as a centerfielder post-1993. Jones led MLB in dWAR 4 times and didn't have a full season dWAR below 1.1 until he was 31 years old.

Trout has had 2 seasons - ever- over 1.1 dWAR. So if he were playing another position on the field more in line with his defensive capabilities (like left field) his WAR would be noticeably less than it is today.

He had a 21 defensive runs saved season in 2012. Awesome year.

Since that season he is -24 on defensive runs saved.

Yet he's still raking in the positional "bonus" by not moving off CF, when anyone who watches baseball the past few years can see that he's not nearly as mobile, fast, or efficient in CF as he was his first couple of years. His arm isn't great.

Centerfielders get a +2.5 positional adjustment every year. Leftfielders get a -7 positional adjustment.

Imagine Adam Dunn's career WAR if the Reds had just left him in centerfield to cost them runs.... In 2009 Dunn had 38 HRs, a .398 OBP and a .928 OPS.

He ended up with a -5.2 dWAR which completely erased his 4.0 oWAR.

Trout would be getting crushed on dWAR if he played left field, and as soon as the Angels move him off CF the world will see what a hoax his WAR stats have been.

Since 2016, Trout has 5 Outs Above Average playing center field. OAA is a Statcast-based statistic. Statcast uses several cameras and radar to percisely track every action on an MLB field.

Taking away the 2.5 runs adjustment for centerfield would only reduce Trout's career WAR by about 2:

11,318 career innings in center field / 1,350 innings per 2.5 runs = 8.38 x 2.5 runs = 20.09 runs / 10 runs per WAR = 2.009 WAR

Making him a neutral left fielder would only take away 7.87 WAR:

8.38 x -7 runs = -58.66 + -20.09 = -78.75 runs / 10 runs = -7.87 WAR + 85.3 = 77.43 WAR

[ThoseBackPages]

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by Stifle

Trout can make incredible catches at the wall. He just doesn’t make the position
look easy. He struggles with balls in front of him and doesn’t always attain a quick start of the bat. He has struggled with the path to the ball. I’m not saying Clemente or Kaline. I’m saying Dwight Evans, Garry Maddox and Kevin Kiermaier would have landed Trout as a DH or a first baseman if he wanted to be on the field.

Dwight Evans didn't play CF.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

How fast a guy runs is an "advanced stat"? LOL

This is the same guy who claims he can't see Trouts greatness in non-advanced stats (which is less an indictment of Trout and more an indictment of his ability to read baseball stats). He claims he's dabbling in advanced metrics because it's the only way to see his greatness. He's a fool who clearly doesn't comprehend traditional baseball statistics, let alone advanced statistics. His entire premise is that only career counting stats matter, which is laughable as they tend to be longevity awards rather than any indication of greatness. Just let him rant and get it out of his system.

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[pete2345]

Every year it seems more people start seeing trout for the average player he is.

[ThoseBackPages]

if the prices drop enough, some of you brokies may be able to pick some up!

[BigSeph]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

How fast a guy runs is an "advanced stat"? LOL

It's not like hits, runs, RBIs, stolen bases, etc.

You know, stats recorded during baseball games going back to the beginning of time.

What was Babe Ruth's sprint speed? Maybe we can compare him to Trout.

[redauto5]

I must say the last 200+ posts on this thread since The Fish got diagnosed with the hamate boo boo have been one of the most fun and engaging baseball conversations I've seen in a good while. Good arguments on both sides, stats to back them up, and deep baseball knowledge.

There's also been a bunch of fun comments from dudes who come from the basketball and football world, which has spiced up the whole Cauldron of Opinion. I wonder if the baseball purists win out long term on How to Measure Greatness in baseball or if the "gotta win chips" poison will infect the sport to the point of no return. I sincerely hope for the former.

I also love Mike Trout and hope he gets inner circle status, though the chances of such seem to be passing him by as we watch on either with glee or grief, depending on our particular psychological and social make up.

Cheers Blowout Forums!

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[SupermanBrandon]

Should the hobby and its collectors pay inner circle prices for non-inner circle HOF players cards (post retirement)?

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

Should the hobby and its collectors pay inner circle prices for non-inner circle HOF players cards (post retirement)?

absolutely

[Cards and 401K]

They do for no name prospects why not potential HOFers.

[anusinha]

Originally Posted by MyckKabongo

He personifies his era. An advanced stats monster in an decade when advanced stats took over every front office, metric-loving nerdy millenials (I can say it because I am one) took the reins in the baseball media and thanks to the internet, sabermetrics became much more mainstream among fans.

The player of the 2010s and it isn't even close. Regardless of where he ends up as an accumulator or in terms of postseason success, he is going to be remembered as the definitive baseball player of an era (much like Griffey).

Yup... 90s were Griffey, 2000s is Jeter(maybe Pujols or Ichiro), 2010s is Trout, 2020s are probably Ohtani.

[SupermanBrandon]

Will Trout's prices drop as his stats and health decline?
Will Trout's prices drop post retirement (pre HOF induction)?

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

Will Trout's prices drop as his stats and health decline?
Will Trout's prices drop post retirement (pre HOF induction)?

I'm guessing they will

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

Will Trout's prices drop as his stats and health decline?
Will Trout's prices drop post retirement (pre HOF induction)?

I'm guessing they will.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

Will Trout's prices drop as his stats and health decline?
Will Trout's prices drop post retirement (pre HOF induction)?

just like everyone else, they will!

[BigSeph]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Since 2016, Trout has 5 Outs Above Average playing center field. OAA is a Statcast-based statistic. Statcast uses several cameras and radar to percisely track every action on an MLB field.

Taking away the 2.5 runs adjustment for centerfield would only reduce Trout's career WAR by about 2:

11,318 career innings in center field / 1,350 innings per 2.5 runs = 8.38 x 2.5 runs = 20.09 runs / 10 runs per WAR = 2.009 WAR

Making him a neutral left fielder would only take away 7.87 WAR:

8.38 x -7 runs = -58.66 + -20.09 = -78.75 runs / 10 runs = -7.87 WAR + 85.3 = 77.43 WAR

I mean I don't get those same exact numbers when calculating for the positional adjustment but it's in the ballpark.

Take away ~8 WAR from Trout and he's on the career WAR list between Kershaw and Verlander.

That's... better... but still completely absurd.

He's above Pedro (3,000 Ks) and Griffey Jr (600 HRs) on the all-time WAR list. He's played the same number of seasons as Joe DiMaggio did, and has over 6 WAR more than DiMaggio and Trout played fewer games.

Would you say Trout's career to date is better than Joe DiMaggio's?

Both 3x MVPs
Both around .400 OBP

But DiMaggio has an all-time hitting streak and 9 world series rings.

Centerfielders from DiMaggio's era get a -1 positional adjustment and not the +2.5 from today.

My point was that it does make a difference, and after seeing Trout over DiMaggio on the all-time WAR list, I'm more convinced than ever that WAR is a throwaway metric that doesn't really mean anything.

I'm glad Trout's good at it, but in a debate sometimes you end up looking stupid when you assume someone's stupid framework in order to argue against it. I don't even think I want to assume the "WAR is a legitimate metric to measure baseball players against each other" framework beyond tonight. I was doing it to play devil's advocate to some degree but this has been a real awakening for me.

It doesn't measure any meaningful moments or achievements on a baseball field. It's basically a praise vehicle for CFs, SSs, and Cs who walk a lot. It punishes players from earlier eras who wanted to hit a baseball and rewards players today who wait for one perfect pitch to crush. It sends players like Trout shooting up all-time lists when they don't have any all-time records.

Pete Rose is the hit king.
DiMaggio has the longest hitting streak in MLB history and 9 rings.
Nolan Ryan is the all time K king.

Trout ranks above all of them on career WAR.

I can't take WAR seriously anymore. The emperor has no clothes.

[BigSeph]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

if the prices drop enough, some of you brokies may be able to pick some up!

I sold a red Target Trout from 2018 Update, BGS 9.5.

I do not regret it at all.

[jhssketchcards]

WAR is funny. Trout is ahead of both Kershaw and Verlander.

Both Kershaw and Verlander own Trout.
BA against Verlander .116
BA against Kershaw .200


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[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by BigSeph

I mean I don't get those same exact numbers when calculating for the positional adjustment but it's in the ballpark.

Take away ~8 WAR from Trout and he's on the career WAR list between Kershaw and Verlander.

That's... better... but still completely absurd.

He's above Pedro (3,000 Ks) and Griffey Jr (600 HRs) on the all-time WAR list. He's played the same number of seasons as Joe DiMaggio did, and has over 6 WAR more than DiMaggio and Trout played fewer games.

Would you say Trout's career to date is better than Joe DiMaggio's?

Both 3x MVPs
Both around .400 OBP

But DiMaggio has an all-time hitting streak and 9 world series rings.

Centerfielders from DiMaggio's era get a -1 positional adjustment and not the +2.5 from today.

My point was that it does make a difference, and after seeing Trout over DiMaggio on the all-time WAR list, I'm more convinced than ever that WAR is a throwaway metric that doesn't really mean anything.

I'm glad Trout's good at it, but in a debate sometimes you end up looking stupid when you assume someone's stupid framework in order to argue against it. I don't even think I want to assume the "WAR is a legitimate metric to measure baseball players against each other" framework beyond tonight. I was doing it to play devil's advocate to some degree but this has been a real awakening for me.

It doesn't measure any meaningful moments or achievements on a baseball field. It's basically a praise vehicle for CFs, SSs, and Cs who walk a lot. It punishes players from earlier eras who wanted to hit a baseball and rewards players today who wait for one perfect pitch to crush. It sends players like Trout shooting up all-time lists when they don't have any all-time records.

Pete Rose is the hit king.
DiMaggio has the longest hitting streak in MLB history and 9 rings.
Nolan Ryan is the all time K king.

Trout ranks above all of them on career WAR.

I can't take WAR seriously anymore. The emperor has no clothes.

If you're wanting to diminish Trout's stature in the hobby, you're going about it all wrong. WAR is an attempt to objectively value player performance. It is scaled relative to a player's peers. It's not a perfect statistic, but it is based on statistical analysis.

Trout is basically the position player version of Clayton Kershaw. Both had all-time great half decades but couldn't stay healthy after their mid-20s. Since his age-27 season in 2015, Kershaw hasn't pitched 200 innings or started 30 games in a season. Likewise, since his age-24 season in 2016, Trout has only played 140 games in a season once. Trout has won 3 MVPs -- Kershaw has won 3 Cy Young Awards. Both were the best player in the 2010s at their respective position.

Joe DiMaggio missed 3 prime seasons due to serving in WWII. His hitting power was also hurt by very spacious left-center field at old Yankees Stadium. He is known for his batting prowess, but only won the batting title twice and never led the league in OPS.

Pedro Martinez had an epic career peak, but only pitched 200 innings 7 times in his 18-year career. By comparison, Greg Maddux had 18 seasons of at least 200 innings during a 23-year career. WAR is a counting stat -- it takes into account the amount of innings a pitcher pitches.

Ken Griffey Jr got pudgy and injury prone in his 30s. He had an awesome 20s, but fell off sharply in his 30s. Even though Griffey hit 600 home runs, Trout's rate numbers are far better:

Trout ages 19-31 seasons: .301/.412/.582, 5,398 PA

Griffey Jr ages 19-31 seasons: .296/.379/.566, 7,736 PA

Pete Rose is the all-time hit king, but he had a .303 batting average and only .784 OPS.

Nolan Ryan is the all-time K king, but he's also the all-time walk king -- he had a BB/9 of 4.7 during his career.


If you want to diminish the stature of Trout in the hobby, just point out that he's been injury prone for more than half his career and is now past his prime. He isn't an inner-circle Hall of Famer -- no player who has only played 5 seasons of at least 140 games is an inner-circle Hall of Famer -- full stop.

Edit: corrected Trout's PA total

[oplum29]

oh geez...