**Official Luka Doncic Thread**

[k13]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I think TBP is right. The pop report for Luka is 5903. For Giannis, it's 1797. Lebron's TC is 1918.

Pop report isn't everything, but 5903 is simply too many for it to be a $500 card any time soon. Think of how expensive everything else would be if that's a $500 card.

It did defy odds..

[TSonn]

Anyone else noticing the Luka RC autos drying up? Can hardly find any of the 2018-19 Chronicles Luka autos on ebay anymore. Was hoping to add a couple more during this dip but there are basically none to be found.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by TSonn

Anyone else noticing the Luka RC autos drying up? Can hardly find any of the 2018-19 Chronicles Luka autos on ebay anymore. Was hoping to add a couple more during this dip but there are basically none to be found.

Luka market has been very dry outside of the usual suspects.

[The_Reverend]

People are holding Luka. Many bought in very high and taking a loss not In The cards. Olympic fire could spike his stuff going into next season. Off season pick-up of a #2 could prime the pump.

[anusinha]

Originally Posted by TSonn

Anyone else noticing the Luka RC autos drying up? Can hardly find any of the 2018-19 Chronicles Luka autos on ebay anymore. Was hoping to add a couple more during this dip but there are basically none to be found.

Ive been buying on card RC autos, got a couple at a decent price over the last month.

edit: took a quick glance around and wow, there not much out there at a reasonable price

[TSonn]

Originally Posted by anusinha

Ive been buying on card RC autos, got a couple at a decent price over the last month.

edit: took a quick glance around and wow, there not much out there at a reasonable price

Yeah. I guess it makes sense. There are probably still quite a few on ebay that were listed in the spring and are sitting at spring prices. Honestly, that's what I'd be doing since I'm in no need to sell.

But there's just so few new listings for his RC autos and especially on card autos.

[The_Reverend]

Speaking of surprise besides the RC autos, his chronicles BGS /99 are still selling for strong prices. Not where they were, but people are not fire selling those.

[TSonn]

Originally Posted by The_Reverend

Speaking of surprise besides the RC autos, his chronicles BGS /99 are still selling for strong prices. Not where they were, but people are not fire selling those.

If I needed to sell, I'd sell my Chronicles blue /99, on card autos, and #d Revolutions last.

[The_Reverend]

Originally Posted by TSonn

If I needed to sell, I'd sell my Chronicles blue /99, on card autos, and #d Revolutions last.

I put BGS but meant all blue /99. Don’t collect autos and never picked up any numbered revolutions, but I still own all 9 of my blue /99. Those will be last to go IF I HAD TO SELL

[The_Reverend]

Originally Posted by amiller

To me, it seems like at least one MVP, maybe two, and at least one NBA title, maybe two, as well as an MJ/LeBron-like brand build up are priced into his cards. Since he has none of this, anything other than small spikes here and there require a ten year plan, me thinks...


www.adammiller.nyc

I totally agree. I have put my Luka stuff, blues, in my case in the closet. I have done the same with the 20 different PSA 10’s that I have, took some profit with the PSA 9 stuff. I have a long term plan for him.

[TSonn]

Originally Posted by amiller

To me, it seems like at least one MVP, maybe two, and at least one NBA title, maybe two, as well as an MJ/LeBron-like brand build up are priced into his cards. Since he has none of this, anything other than small spikes here and there require a ten year plan, me thinks...


www.adammiller.nyc

If you're talking strictly high pop base cards - I agree. But the SP rookies will have a slow rise as long as he keeps playing well. Most of these are already in the hands of long-term holders so there will be fewer and fewer to hit the market as the next couple years go on.

[The_Reverend]

Originally Posted by TSonn

If you're talking strictly high pop base cards - I agree. But the SP rookies will have a slow rise as long as he keeps playing well. Most of these are already in the hands of long-term holders so there will be fewer and fewer to hit the market as the next couple years go on.

Serial numbered rookies/parallels are being held and the long holder group aggressively went after these. The number of blues, excluding the blue velocity cards, on eBay are relatively low and will remain that way. Yes there are some that are set high intentionally. I would do the same if I was selling mine.

[TSonn]

Originally Posted by amiller

The idea of being able to rely on the parallel prizm rookies (and others of similar pedigree) continuing to inch up meaningfully before these key milestones (which are priced in) are hit is not a bet i would make. Don’t get me wrong, I am all four feet in the trough; but based on a very long term view.

The latest evidence is the fast break purple /75 that just sold in an Ebay auction for nearly 20% lower (@ $16.2K) than the same card sold for a few weeks ago ($19.5K - when it was competing with several other parallels). Granted, it’s a fast break, but the rarity and low pop nature of the card has to have long term value if Luka’s performance/brand milestones are ever hit. I’ve noticed recent softness in some of the other rarer rookies, such as the choice blue/green/yellow.

This doesn’t cloud my long term vision, but just supports the point that with these astronomical prices basic laws of economics dictate that so much future greatness is priced in - and there is a limit to the amount of future greatness one can possibly have to support these price levels.

This is just my two cents. Very happy to hear others’ views.


www.adammiller.nyc

Good points. I think the card does need to be a certain variety SP to slowly rise. As you pointed out, fast break parallels are probably not the best data point since they're not particularly nice to look at and collectors in general kinda poo poo on fast break parallels.

There's also just not a ton of people who can drop $20k on a card - especially when the entire sports card market is in a dip. For something like that fast break purple, probably better to set a BIN at what the last one sold for and field offers.

I know I've been trying to snag quite a few of the SP Luka RCs at Dec 2020 values and keep getting beat out at auction, sometimes by quite a bit. A 2018-19 Blue Elite BGS 9.5 went for $1,025 last night. Last 9.5 of that card sold for $1,050 in January 2021.

[The_Reverend]

Originally Posted by TSonn

Good points. I think the card does need to be a certain variety SP to slowly rise. As you pointed out, fast break parallels are probably not the best data point since they're not particularly nice to look at and collectors in general kinda poo poo on fast break parallels.

There's also just not a ton of people who can drop $20k on a card - especially when the entire sports card market is in a dip. For something like that fast break purple, probably better to set a BIN at what the last one sold for and field offers.

I know I've been trying to snag quite a few of the SP Luka RCs at Dec 2020 values and keep getting beat out at auction, sometimes by quite a bit. A 2018-19 Blue Elite BGS 9.5 went for $1,025 last night. Last 9.5 of that card sold for $1,050 in January 2021.

As we both know, the blue’s from chronicles are some of the most preferred blue parallels especially Phoenix, chrome, crusade, elite, obsidian, essentials, studio and marquee. It is all about the shine and those all really pop.

[TSonn]

Originally Posted by The_Reverend

As we both know, the blue’s from chronicles are some of the most preferred blue parallels especially Phoenix, chrome, crusade, elite, obsidian, essentials, studio and marquee. It is all about the shine and those all really pop.

I'm not sure the Chronicles blues are necessarily "preferred" but I think they are the most obtainable where even a $5,000 entry for a Phoenix or Crusade blue seems like a steal in comparison to Optic and Prizm blues. All are chromes, all are /199 or less, all are shiny, all look objectively awesome.

I don't think the Phoenix or Crusade will ever reach the heights of Optic or Prizm, but when the Prizm Blue /199 PSA 10 sells for $55k and the Phoenix Blue /99 PSA 10 sells for $5k, the Phoenix seems like both a steal and that it has room to bridge the gap a smidge.

[The_Reverend]

Originally Posted by TSonn

I'm not sure the Chronicles blues are necessarily "preferred" but I think they are the most obtainable where even a $5,000 entry for a Phoenix or Crusade blue seems like a steal in comparison to Optic and Prizm blues. All are chromes, all are /199 or less, all are shiny, all look objectively awesome.

I don't think the Phoenix or Crusade will ever reach the heights of Optic or Prizm, but when the Prizm Blue /199 PSA 10 sells for $55k and the Phoenix Blue /99 PSA 10 sells for $5k, the Phoenix seems like both a steal and that it has room to bridge the gap a smidge.

Agreed! Give me the optic blues or the blue ice, but those are way out of my range. I swim In The blue chronicles lane. They have lots of upward potential.

[al3xmac10]

1/1 Luka Super Prime
and
1/1 Ohtani/Matsui/Ichiro Auto Patch Ruby RC

[jmcca170]

Saw this on FB: lowest numbered 77/ prizm




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[tjforce]

Okay Luka guys....

With the trade machine buzzing in my head... do you take this following trade?

Cavs get Porzingis + $6MM salary filler

Mavs get Collin Sexton and Kevin Love

Cavs get a stretch 4 to go along with the possible addition of Jalen Green to the back court. Mavs get Love to replace some of what Kristaps did, but more so to have a young guy in Sexton who can get buckets.

Thoughts?

[k13]

Originally Posted by TSonn

If you're talking strictly high pop base cards - I agree. But the SP rookies will have a slow rise as long as he keeps playing well. Most of these are already in the hands of long-term holders so there will be fewer and fewer to hit the market as the next couple years go on.

You mean long-term flippers...

As soon as prices go up or he does something they'll be for all over the place for sale.

[Asian62150]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Okay Luka guys....

With the trade machine buzzing in my head... do you take this following trade?

Cavs get Porzingis + $6MM salary filler

Mavs get Collin Sexton and Kevin Love

Cavs get a stretch 4 to go along with the possible addition of Jalen Green to the back court. Mavs get Love to replace some of what Kristaps did, but more so to have a young guy in Sexton who can get buckets.

Thoughts?

I would do this deal in a heartbeat. Don't think Cavs would though.

Sexton is a rising star and Love would provide the solid play and be a good veteran presence who's won.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

[nxkard]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

I would do this deal in a heartbeat. Don't think Cavs would though.

Sexton is a rising star and Love would provide the solid play and be a good veteran presence who's won.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

I would do the deal just because love's contract expires a year before KP's. Wouldn't give Sexton a big extension this off season however. He's too one dimensional.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

I would do this deal in a heartbeat. Don't think Cavs would though.

Sexton is a rising star and Love would provide the solid play and be a good veteran presence who's won.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

Originally Posted by nxkard

I would do the deal just because love's contract expires a year before KP's. Wouldn't give Sexton a big extension this off season however. He's too one dimensional.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

As a Cavs fan I'll speak on the upside....

It's been a long 3 years of bad basketball since LeBron left, but we've finally gotten some decent young pieces... it's just that right now they don't fit well.

We probably can't resign Allen, and Sexton to big deals with Love still on the roster.

The big game changer for the team is the third pick. If Green is there, and not Mobley, then a line up of

Garland
Green
Okoro
???
Jarrett Allen

Is the future. Moving pieces that don't fit to get Porzingis gives us a young and competitive roster (if he can stay healthy, which is a big if).

It might not be the best possible move for the Cavs, but if it were to happen there's a possibility it could work out well

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by nxkard

I would do the deal just because love's contract expires a year before KP's. Wouldn't give Sexton a big extension this off season however. He's too one dimensional.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Same thought.

[Lethal]

Originally Posted by al3xmac10

1/1 Luka Super Prime
and
1/1 Ohtani/Matsui/Ichiro Auto Patch Ruby RC

Ouch. All that money to grade a 1/1 and it comes back a 6