The Official Stock Market Thread

[Josh611]

Drove into the office for the first time in a week today. I drive past a GM Truck plant in Flint. The outside was FULL of trucks. Absolutely full. I wish I remember looking before but don't remember seeing that many. Either they have the chips now or are just that much behind on the finishing touches. I remember hearing about them making them without the last few pieces but not sure if that's what these are or not. Just an observation I would share if anyone cares.

[JMarchand1981]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Seems like people are ignoring the potential positive catalyst from the China test flight story that came out last week.

Also, in my totally uneducated opinion (I'm just going based on what some different analysts have said), the dreamliner news is really just the FAA flexing some muscle and is little more than a sensationalized headline.

I bought BA for a couple reasons.

It hit the 200dema... well traded down through it but it was just based on the dreamliner news. Based solely on the chart my target is $260 by the end of August which I think is doable.

Last 2 times this year BA hit 200dema level with RSI sub 35 it had a big move up. 1st time a ~40% move and 2nd time a ~15% move. $260 is about a 15% move so it seems totally possible.

Now this could all just be confirmation bias but hey, willing to see what happens.

You will be better going long on the options and buying their bonds. The bonds will pay your freight on the options and then you have free upside if the options hit. I have money that i manage for other people. I have a fiduciary obligation to have an answer. Technicals don’t really pass muster when someone asks why they are losing their money.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by JMarchand1981

You will be better going long on the options and buying their bonds. The bonds will pay your freight on the options and then you have free upside if the options hit. I have money that i manage for other people. I have a fiduciary obligation to have an answer. Technicals don’t really pass muster when someone asks why they are losing their money.

I wouldn’t even know how to buy bonds and plus I’m not really interested in holding long term anyways.

I’m mostly trying to swing trade this I set a 5% SL in case it convincing trades below 200dema.

My long term portfolio I’ve been mixing in more dividend stocks just grabbed some more LEA and TGT

[JMarchand1981]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

I wouldn’t even know how to buy bonds and plus I’m not really interested in holding long term anyways.

I’m mostly trying to swing trade this I set a 5% SL in case it convincing trades below 200dema.

My long term portfolio I’ve been mixing in more dividend stocks just grabbed some more LEA and TGT

Both LEA and TGT are winners. TGT is common but where did you find LEAR? That isn’t really a well known company but that is a solid pick. It’s in a wicked consolidation after being way up there second half of 2020. The $195 call for $8.50 expiring in December 2021 holds some value.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by JMarchand1981

Both LEA and TGT are winners. TGT is common but where did you find LEAR? That isn’t really a well known company but that is a solid pick. It’s in a wicked consolidation after being way up there second half of 2020. The $195 call for $8.50 expiring in December 2021 holds some value.

I was looking for dividend stocks in an uptrend with solid financials. I actually found it with a screener.

I love it at the current price, my cost basis is about ~$171.

Their business isn't threatened at all by EVs either

[xbignick]

JMarchand1981 blowoutcards forum posts have more sway than Goldman Sachs.

8% down since he closed out on NVDA.

[salthill]

Originally Posted by xbignick

JMarchand1981 blowoutcards forum posts have more sway than Goldman Sachs.
8% down since he closed out on NVDA.

Plus the inevitable collapse of Binance/Tether/Bitcoin (probably in that order, and rapidly) is going to tank NVDA when it happens. They’ll still have demand from gamers etc, but the crypto miner goldrush will end.

[Josh611]

Originally Posted by salthill

Plus the inevitable collapse of Binance/Tether/Bitcoin (probably in that order, and rapidly) is going to tank NVDA when it happens. They’ll still have demand from gamers etc, but the crypto miner goldrush will end.

Crypto was less than 3% of thier Q1 Revenue. I think they will be just fine.

There will be better times to buy NVDA, but the stock simply won't tank because of crypto

[Josh611]

Originally Posted by xbignick

JMarchand1981 blowoutcards forum posts have more sway than Goldman Sachs.

8% down since he closed out on NVDA.

He knows his stuff.

I am forever thankful for everything I have learned him.

Blowout Member of the year

[salthill]

Originally Posted by Josh611

Crypto was less than 3% of thier Q1 Revenue. I think they will be just fine.

There will be better times to buy NVDA, but the stock simply won't tank because of crypto

Consider my assumptions challenged, and answered.
I’ll dig into that 3% figure some now. It’s surprising to me. I get that the big miners are using custom hardware. But there’s a lower tier using GPU farms. (Even with the recent changes to try to lock them out.)

[salthill]

Originally Posted by Josh611

He knows his stuff.

I am forever thankful for everything I have learned him.

Blowout Member of the year

I second that. No reason for him to take the time to post, and more importantly explain his posts. Appreciate it.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by salthill

Consider my assumptions challenged, and answered.
I’ll dig into that 3% figure some now. It’s surprising to me. I get that the big miners are using custom hardware. But there’s a lower tier using GPU farms. (Even with the recent changes to try to lock them out.)

I don't know the stats but I'm guessing most miners are using ASICs just because of how much more efficient they are

[Josh611]

Originally Posted by salthill

Consider my assumptions challenged, and answered.
I’ll dig into that 3% figure some now. It’s surprising to me. I get that the big miners are using custom hardware. But there’s a lower tier using GPU farms. (Even with the recent changes to try to lock them out.)

I’ll add this. Look at Bitcoin price since April, look at NVDA since April.

Lower Bitcoin prices would theoretically mean lower crypto related demand for NVDA.

NVDA is AI, automation, gaming, 5G, hell probably will have their hands in everything at some point.

[TheWrightStuff]

Pretty sad that SpaceX had their first space flight go smoothly and immediately their stock price dropped by almost 50%. Why not wait a couple weeks to announce the stock sale? Let your investors make some money. As I posted i sold half my position right before at 55. Wish I had sold it all but I bought in at 16 so my remaining half is free and still made money on it. I still like the potential long term and plan to keep a position in the company.

[JMarchand1981]

Originally Posted by TheWrightStuff

Pretty sad that SpaceX had their first space flight go smoothly and immediately their stock price dropped by almost 50%. Why not wait a couple weeks to announce the stock sale? Let your investors make some money. As I posted i sold half my position right before at 55. Wish I had sold it all but I bought in at 16 so my remaining half is free and still made money on it. I still like the potential long term and plan to keep a position in the company.

SpaceX is private. I am assuming that you are talking about Virgin Galactic, SPCE.

The answer to your question is somewhat academic and somewhat a judgement call. The cost of capital for a company is lowest with a higher stock price. There was no guarantee that their successful journey would elevate the stock price(this is the academic piece). Would it have? Probably, but a shrewd CFO should definitely be betting more on what his company has done versus how Wall Street will treat the news(this is the judgement call).

So I have answered your question. I will add that my belief is that they should have had one large bond offering for the next few journeys. I am not going to actually crunch the numbers because I don't hold the stock, but I am assuming they didn't go this route because their CoC would simply cost them less in the long term (as a shareholder, you really want to think about what this line of thinking says about the priorities of the company).

[JMarchand1981]

Originally Posted by xbignick

JMarchand1981 blowoutcards forum posts have more sway than Goldman Sachs.

8% down since he closed out on NVDA.

lol Thanks. Sometimes you just get it right. I kinda got this one right.

NVDA went up so fast that it never gained support in the $700's range. It just isn't there. It could fall at low as $675 or wherever support was last established. Believe it or now, my NVDA options still have a strike price less than $675...and I picked them up as out of the money.

[JMarchand1981]

Originally Posted by Josh611

He knows his stuff.

I am forever thankful for everything I have learned him.

Blowout Member of the year

Originally Posted by salthill

I second that. No reason for him to take the time to post, and more importantly explain his posts. Appreciate it.

Aww, thanks guys. Honestly, I post because I like you guys. I sometimes disappear when things get hairy just because I don't tend to battle people who are constantly bearish. I am forever bullish because I have enough confidence that I will figure it out in the toughest of markets.

We all have the same goals and generally different ways to get there.

Additionally, if it is a question that I can answer, I try to. Also, I try to answer PMs in a decent amount of time and without giving a crappy one word answer. It is always good interactions.


All of this said. crappy market day today. Our portfolio was down and outpaced the losses of the S&P (this is my benchmark). The redeeming thing was that I had the day off from work and spent it with my daughter. That's all.

[babyfaceposey]

Originally Posted by JMarchand1981

lol Thanks. Sometimes you just get it right. I kinda got this one right.

NVDA went up so fast that it never gained support in the $700's range. It just isn't there. It could fall at low as $675 or wherever support was last established. Believe it or now, my NVDA options still have a strike price less than $675...and I picked them up as out of the money.

You make great calls and I feel lucky that you are willing to share them.

[Josh611]

Got stopped out of MAPS. This was a tiny position from what was a big one. Made money, but they registered to offer 110M shares. I believe they currently have something like 130M shares. At the merger it was trading around a 30x forward earnings but that was $10 a share. That much dilution with already a higher valuation sounds like a mix for disaster given the potential for rising interest rates. Biden also gave a statement the other day saying he wasn’t in favor of federal legalizing weed. I never even knew that. I still think this one could be a winner one day, but I’m not willing to wait and find out. I will keep track of it and look for a good entry at some point, but no thanks for now.

I still own Ford. Don’t want to add here, but if it falls to $13 or below I’ll add more calls and possibly more shares. I have been selling calls against my shares and calls so it pays to wait. . Selling calls against the Janaury 2023 expiration can yield you about 1% a week if you’re careful. Not as good of a return if selling against the shares but anything is better than nothing. Not expecting a great quarter, but still like the forward outlook.

I’m reluctantly still holding PENN. Only 10 shares with a $78 cost but damn has that one taken a beating from the top. I traded this one several times before it topped back in March but didn’t expect it to drop this far. The casino busnness is solid, but really bought it for the Barstool Sportsbook and stake in Barstool. I hate holding stuff but I’ll tuck it away and keep an eye on it.

[JMarchand1981]

I don’t follow the Dow but those futures are very unattractive.

[Josh611]

Originally Posted by JMarchand1981

I don’t follow the Dow but those futures are very unattractive.

I don’t see anything that’s not red. Has the makings have a nasty day.

[carlo16]

Originally Posted by JMarchand1981

I don’t follow the Dow but those futures are very unattractive.

This dance is gonna continue for awhile.
Covid slows down economy then market tanks on fear of pullback
No Covid then market tanks because reigns taken off economy and here comes inflation
Earning and guidance too good =inflation
Earnings and guidance too bad traditional yuck

Walking a tightrope here.

[sportsfan12345]

Are you all just holding for the long haul or do you try and get out now and get back in later?
Asking those with real money in the market, not just a couple meme stocks.

Thanks!

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by sportsfan12345

Are you all just holding for the long haul or do you try and get out now and get back in later?
Asking those with real money in the market, not just a couple meme stocks.

Thanks!

It is impossible to time the market and would be unwise to try and do so.

If you have cash you can average down on positions you really believe in. Unless you think the entire market is going to collapse there's no reason to panic sell on a 10% correction or whatever it is

[JMarchand1981]

Originally Posted by sportsfan12345

Are you all just holding for the long haul or do you try and get out now and get back in later?
Asking those with real money in the market, not just a couple meme stocks.

Thanks!

I have “real money” in the market.

I go options shopping on days like today.