The Price Index Carnage Is Real

[Chrominator]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

I could totally see breaks of super high end products with guaranteed valuable hits being fun to watch. I could see it being a big event in the hobby. But generally speaking, breaks seem routine.

Kurtis Blow's OG Breakers Unlimited, LLC

presents

Breaks on a bus brakes on a car
Breaks to make you a superstar
Breaks to win and breaks to lose
But these here breaks will rock your shoes
And these are the breaks
Break it up, break it up, break it up!

Breaks on a stage, breaks on a screen
Breaks to make your wallet lean
Breaks run cold and breaks run hot
Some folks got 'em and some have not
But these are the breaks
Break it up, break it up, break it up!
Break down!

Brakes on a plane, brakes on a train
Breaks to make you go insane
Breaks in love, breaks in war
But we got the breaks to get you on the floor
And these are the breaks
Break it up, break it up, break it up!
Break down! Yo!

[mattglet]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

But wouldn't you consider those things to have depth -- knowledge, skill, difficulty? Group breaks are simple and repetitive.

Fair point indeed.

I stopped trying to rationalize what makes people tick a long time ago.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

I can understand how the concept of group breaks could be appealing on an entertainment level and how group break hosts could become celebrity figures in the hobby.

I just dont see how group breaks in practice are generally a fun experience to watch. It's just a lot of boxes and packs being rapidly opened with big hits being far and few between. How does all the mundane repetition keep hold of people's attention if they don't have money at stake? I'm not trying to be a hater -- it just seems to lack substantive entertainment value.

Everybody has their own thing. For example, I don't really understand how ripping wax is the most fun thing in the world. I opened five cases across three products in 2017-2018 and will probably never again.

My mom will rail against people who watch Big Brother type of reality TV. "Those shows are so mind numbingly stupid", she says. My retort is always, "You watch those dumb dance shows". Then she'll reply, "That's different." No, mom, it isn't different.

Heck, some people find baseball boring! Personally I think soccer is about as exciting as sitting in a chair in the middle of the desert.

Everybody has different taste. A lot of people (most I'd say) just want a way to turn their brain off and relax. If they get that by watching a break (or someone else play video games) on Youtube then there will be a market for that. Right now there very obviously is a market.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Before I get on to the meat of it, I want to remind everybody that The Price Index is not as precise as the S&P 500 or Dow Jones...etc. I round everything at every step of the way, so while I believe this is the most accurate gauge of the market at any given time (in this case, July 12), it is still riddled with rounding errors. Also keep in mind that I don't put as much effort into the mid season updates as I do the end of season update. Now, on to the numbers;

The headline number is down 25% since November. This is going to be the first Nov. to Nov. loss since I started tracking in 2017. It is most likely the first one since I bought my first card in 2013 or 2014 or whenever it was. There is no longer any question that the bull run is over.

The average player (how I judge the guys I picked) is down 20%. That means the guys at the top have lost more than the guys in the middle and at the bottom. This is evident as I'm looking at the list. Usually the top of the market guys perform better, so another way we're in uncharted territory.

The median player is down 33%. That is a big ol' ouchie. The top 4 in price (Soto, Acuan, Tatis, and Vlad) are all right around there. Only 11 of 67 are up by even 1%. Only 5 of those are up more than 1.5x. <brag>My year has been saved by having 3 of those 5 on my Big Stash list to start the year </brag>. Twelve players have lost over half of their value. I also happen to have a big stash of the biggest loser (Mondesi, not Gallo).

I don't track volume, but it seems pretty normal for this time of year. One thing I haven't ever seen in July though....there was a player with ZERO sales (Brennan Davis).

Prime aged players (or as I call them, graduates) have performend better than prospects or young MLB player (25 or under this year). Part of that is performance (Judge and Alonso are doing very well in a small pool of players). That said, pewe predicted that the more speculative the player the more of a beating they would take. I think that's a part of it too.

What about the Vintage Price Index? It has to be way up. I recently bid 20k on a card that was sitting at 5k in OT and still lost. Another card went from 2k to over 10k. I have to bid world record prices for any card that I want and most of the time I still lose. Last night at Heritage, shut out as usual.

The vintage market is as hot as it has ever been. Sell your losers and buy Ruth, Wagner, Cobb or Mantle, Jackie, Clemente, Mays.

[tconte]

Originally Posted by rats60

What about the Vintage Price Index? It has to be way up. I recently bid 20k on a card that was sitting at 5k in OT and still lost. Another card went from 2k to over 10k. I have to bid world record prices for any card that I want and most of the time I still lose. Last night at Heritage, shut out as usual.

The vintage market is as hot as it has ever been. Sell your losers and buy Ruth, Wagner, Cobb or Mantle, Jackie, Clemente, Mays.

This is the play! Dump the Tatis, Ohtani, Allen, Lamar's, etc and get the
best of the best.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Wait, are you seriously comparing group breaks to traditional forms of affordable entertainment like tv and movies? There is a lot more money involved in group breaks on a per costumer basis. It is not a casual activity -- significant money is involved.

I'm saying that. I watch group breaks on youtube instead of watching TV many nights. And I've never once bought into a group break. It's definitely entertainment for me.

[OneSickDegen]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

It is not a casual activity -- significant money is involved.

I think a fair comparison for group breaks would be more along the lines of a crack dealer than a casino. Same energy.

[rwperu34]

I had to drudge up this old thread, because I just updated and I now think we are more likely to hit the 2022 pattern than 2023. The Headline Number for 2024 is already down 16% since November.

2022: Hit peak in February, stayed there until Opening Day, gave it all back by mid May. From there the market dropped around 10% per month to its nadir in November, with the exception of the couple of weeks before and after The National. It finished down 40%.

2023: Hit peak in February, stayed there until Opening Day, gave it all back by mid May. Then the market leveled off until The National before dropping around 10% per month until nadir in November. It finished down 20%.

2024: Hit peak in February and immediately started falling. Gave it all back by mid April and continues to plop at around 10% per month.

I had reacted to this information by lowering my prices across the board by 15% the 2nd week in April. After having done more price research, I deceded that wasn't enough and three weeks later dropped them another 15-20%. All told I slashed my inventory by 30% in less than a month. I'm going to hold firm to my projection of a 30% drop...for now.

[anusinha]

Stuff always goes down in the summer but this year it seems like things are falling faster, especially on newer stuff and on low end slabs.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

I had to drudge up this old thread, because I just updated and I now think we are more likely to hit the 2022 pattern than 2023. The Headline Number for 2024 is already down 16% since November.

2022: Hit peak in February, stayed there until Opening Day, gave it all back by mid May. From there the market dropped around 10% per month to its nadir in November, with the exception of the couple of weeks before and after The National. It finished down 40%.

2023: Hit peak in February, stayed there until Opening Day, gave it all back by mid May. Then the market leveled off until The National before dropping around 10% per month until nadir in November. It finished down 20%.

2024: Hit peak in February and immediately started falling. Gave it all back by mid April and continues to plop at around 10% per month.

I had reacted to this information by lowering my prices across the board by 15% the 2nd week in April. After having done more price research, I deceded that wasn't enough and three weeks later dropped them another 15-20%. All told I slashed my inventory by 30% in less than a month. I'm going to hold firm to my projection of a 30% drop...for now.

Thank you for the update! Are there any players that stick out to you that are not going down in this market? Any insights on why you think the market is performing so poorly (economy, lack of scoring, multiple players having down years, etc.)?

Based on the guys I PC everyone seems to be down. Soto seems to be pretty flat despite his nice start to the season. Even Ohtani low end 2018 RC market seems to be down 25% or more compared to recent highs.

[Boredlawyer]

It's really simple. It has very little to do with player performance. Acuna, Tatis, Chourio, Holliday, etc have all sucked this season. But even guys that are performing well (Carson Williams) aren't going up.

A ton of money got sucked out of the hobby over the last 18 months. All the COVID folks sitting at home discovering Bowman Chrome for the first time. People that made quick money on crypto convinced that they found a new revenue stream. How many people that got into cards in June 2020 stayed for four years? I bet 4/5 folks that bought their first Bowman Chrome card in 2020-2021 haven't picked one up in a year.

Cards stopped being fun to them when they stopped appreciating in value overnight. If those folks weren't fickle about cards, then they wouldn't have discovered them during COVID; they'd already be here. The market was propped up by folks paying $500 for Robert Puason PSA 10s, because they'd never experienced failure in this microeconomy.

Buying Bowman Chrome cards at the moment means fighting an uphill battle against player performance and market factors. Don't see an entry point unless a player is just preposterously underpriced.

People need to temper their expectations for what a mid-high ceiling Bowman Chrome autograph is worth. Historically, it hasn't been $50-75 for Yanquiel Fernandez, Pedro Pineda types, $200 for Robert Puason types, or $300 for Walker Jenkins types.

[Bcr]

Singles continue to drop yet wax continues to go up. Something has to give eventually right?

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by Bcr

Singles continue to drop yet wax continues to go up. Something has to give eventually right?

Breakers have to go for wax to drop

[rms13]

Everything else is more expensive. Food, gas, insurance, interest rates. Some of that has to have a trickle down effect on how much money people are spending on cards.

[Boredlawyer]

Originally Posted by Bcr

Singles continue to drop yet wax continues to go up. Something has to give eventually right?

"The market can stay irrational longer than we can stay liquid."

People continuing to buy into breaks are either setting on enormous piles of money and have inelastic spending habits (wealthy people usually don't have inelastic spending habits), don't care about the odds and are wanting a quick dopamine rush, or have some level of addiction that may carry a ton of debt. Most probably fall into buckets two or three.

Wax breaks have been slowing down, as is obvious from the number of open breaks that fail to get filled. But there's still enough degens/dopamine rushers that are willing to gamble at exponentially awful odds.

Eventually the prices will come down, but we have enough addicts left to preclude that.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

It's really simple. It has very little to do with player performance. Acuna, Tatis, Chourio, Holliday, etc have all sucked this season. But even guys that are performing well (Carson Williams) aren't going up.

A ton of money got sucked out of the hobby over the last 18 months. All the COVID folks sitting at home discovering Bowman Chrome for the first time. People that made quick money on crypto convinced that they found a new revenue stream. How many people that got into cards in June 2020 stayed for four years? I bet 4/5 folks that bought their first Bowman Chrome card in 2020-2021 haven't picked one up in a year.

Cards stopped being fun to them when they stopped appreciating in value overnight. If those folks weren't fickle about cards, then they wouldn't have discovered them during COVID; they'd already be here. The market was propped up by folks paying $500 for Robert Puason PSA 10s, because they'd never experienced failure in this microeconomy.

Buying Bowman Chrome cards at the moment means fighting an uphill battle against player performance and market factors. Don't see an entry point unless a player is just preposterously underpriced.

People need to temper their expectations for what a mid-high ceiling Bowman Chrome autograph is worth. Historically, it hasn't been $50-75 for Yanquiel Fernandez, Pedro Pineda types, $200 for Robert Puason types, or $300 for Walker Jenkins types.

I came back to the hobby during the Covid boom (after collecting as a kid in the late 80's and early 90's) and have stayed! During this time I don't think I have ever bought a Bowman chrome auto (more of a low end RC collector). I get the appeal of the BCA, but always thought they were too expensive for the guys I collect (and I am a fan of quantity over quality). Over the past few years, my buying habits have changed. I no longer buy prospects at all. More focused on the top players in the league that I think have long term staying potential. This is probably a foolish quest but it is fun to collect!

But I do think it is problematic for the singles collectors if players they collect can only go down in value even if they are having all star/MVP type seasons. If the only way to win the game is to not play, that is bad for the long term health of the hobby. As I said before the real winners are Fanatics, grading companies, breakers, flippers etc...the end consumer/collectors are taking a beating right now. So if you are in the hobby to make money...this market makes it nearly impossible. Maybe one day the market will improve. I still keep on buying because it is fun for me (and I am only spending my fun money).

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Thank you for the update! Are there any players that stick out to you that are not going down in this market? Any insights on why you think the market is performing so poorly (economy, lack of scoring, multiple players having down years, etc.)?

Based on the guys I PC everyone seems to be down. Soto seems to be pretty flat despite his nice start to the season. Even Ohtani low end 2018 RC market seems to be down 25% or more compared to recent highs.

I'll explain what's happening. The further we get away from the 2020-2021 boom, the less money is in the hobby to support and drive card prices. As a result, the secondary market is becoming more and more concentrated around cyclical buying and selling seasons, resulting in temporary spikes and dips in prices, but an overall downward trend.

[hermanotarjeta]

Wait, so you are saying we can’t retire on our break winz and slabbed bass investmentz before we are forced to find our next jobz?

For most, this hobby isn’t so fun when you can’t make money.

Fanatics taking the cake out of box flipper boi mouths.

[fabiani12333]

The investment money that came into the hobby during the boom has been slowly unwinding. There is no more private equity or venture capital to fund hobby growth. No more easy money for fly-by-night folks who think or act like prices only go up.

Prices got inflated far beyond sustainable levels during the boom, and there has been a steady market correction since 2021.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

The investment money that came into the hobby during the boom has been slowly unwinding. There is no more private equity or venture capital to fund hobby growth. No more easy money for fly-by-night folks who think or act like prices only go up.

Prices got inflated far beyond sustainable levels during the boom, and there has been a steady market correction since 2021.

Can you call it a correction when prices will continue to decline through eternity?

In general, buy high and sell lower when you are desperate for cash?

Sounds like a fun “hobby” for investor bois.

[ScooterD]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Can you call it a correction when prices will continue to decline through eternity?

In general, buy high and sell lower when you are desperate for cash?

Sounds like a fun “hobby” for investor bois.

What about for people who enjoy and afford the “hobby?”

There’s a lot of talk on these boards about money (profit, losses, investments, etc). What about those who try to enjoy it without the ledgers?

[mmier118]

Originally Posted by ScooterD

What about for people who enjoy and afford the “hobby?”

There’s a lot of talk on these boards about money (profit, losses, investments, etc). What about those who try to enjoy it without the ledgers?

We still enjoy the hobby, but between the higher shipping costs, higher taxes / fees, higher costs of living outside of the card world. I would bet most of us are spending much less than we used to and being more picky about what we do buy. Also purchases that I would have made quickly in the past get spread out over a longer period because you know if you just wait, the card will get cheaper.

Just judging from past corrections I think we have a long way to go down. Doesn’t mean you can’t collect but I just look at it like going on a vacation. That money is gone once it’s spent, where before, I did think that one day I would get a return, even if not 100%. In the past, I thought I could get a large chunk of money spent back if needed but now with fees, taxes market conditions that’s not true. When cards get cold only the best stuff moves, and at a great discount to market if you really need the cash quickly. Otherwise they just become illiquid.

[80s Kid]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Can you call it a correction when prices will continue to decline through eternity?

In general, buy high and sell lower when you are desperate for cash?

Sounds like a fun “hobby” for investor bois.

Same as it’s always been. As fun as it is to watch these cycles there will always be more product than collectors can keep up on/spend money on.

With sports it doesn’t help when these “investors” spend money they don’t have on prospects that flame out.

As a collector I just follow the waves and wait to buy low since I don’t sell.

[Trueblue]

Would be curious to see the historical price index in the 90s when people stopped paying ridiculous sums for raw Canseco/McGwire/Griffey RCs.

If the market ever goes back up, it's probably only going to consolidate around specific players. Hot air seldom goes back into the same balloons. Looking at the early 2000s rookies as a snapshot - it's really just Pujols/Ichiro that still holds value. Likely the same here. Few premium names, lot of has beens.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by ScooterD

What about for people who enjoy and afford the “hobby?”

There’s a lot of talk on these boards about money (profit, losses, investments, etc). What about those who try to enjoy it without the ledgers?

It’ll be less expensive to collect - isn’t that a good thing?

When you don’t buy a card for the main purpose of making money, you will be able to enjoy your hobby even more when the bang goes further for your buck.