Those that purchased expensive cards in Jan-Feb this year and are down big

[k13]

Originally Posted by Zacy87

The influx of PSA base cards coming back within the next 6-12 months is going to be insane. Not to mention that a lot of newcomers to the hobby are from the sneaker world and they have a reputation of undercutting each other as far as resale pricing goes.

That same logic is going to apply when all of these people who sent in Mosaic/Prizm/Optic base to PSA finally get their cards back. Watch the market be flooded with these types of cards.

All these cards are already close to worthless.
A big majority of PSA orders are Pokemon cards.

[SaveMeTheGum]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Disagree. Plenty of 90s cards continuing to do well because the supply isn’t there and is never going to be there. Doesn’t have to be ultra high end to hold value. There are plenty of MJ inserts that still have total PSA pops under 100. There’s no backlog of those cards.

True, I guess I’m pointing more to the newer stuff and the flood of grading by all the noobs. Of the 1000+ of my cards in grading prison, only one bulk order is “ultra modern”. Most are low numbered 90’s/early 2000’s and true vintage.

[Steve88]

Originally Posted by solt0131

The best buy soon will be PSA graded LeBron Topps rookies. They're not even close to the bottom yet and when they hit, buy the absolute sh*t out of them.

How much lower can they possibly get? I bought a BGS 8.5 for $1300 (my worst impromptu buy as of yet) a month ago and it’s worth around $800 now.

I did buy with profit I made selling my base Prizm cards so not too worried. I just bought a mint paper Topps Lebron for $300. Where do you predict the floor might be? I know it’s not the rarest rookie card of his but it is his flagship RC


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[k13]

Originally Posted by Zacy87

Absolutely right.

The more modern base cards are going to crash though. As I mentioned above, the amount of Mosaic/Optic/Prizm graded base is going to be insane by the end of the year. POP reports with most likely quadruple.

So you Zion prizms pop reports will quadruple?
Would you like to make a wager on that?

[k13]

All that Iverson, Kobe, Shaq, Garnett, Wade, etc. is in this huge PSA order not just newer stuff.

All that 90's rookies junk that was not worth grading till it got pumped.

[gomiamigo]

Originally Posted by Spartyon

I am comfortable buying basketball in about 2-3 months. When football hits peak hype, just like every other year. This is, imo, a seasonal sell-off paired with an overall card market correction

For one thing, the seasonal selloff usually doesn't start until the playoffs are ending [esp for guys still in - Lebron, Giannis, Kawhi, Embiid, Durant, Mitchell, Luka, Trae, etc -- although the middle two seem to still be rising].

Last year I said the bubble would start to burst by the end of 2021, once people got out of covid-sitting at home all day spending their excess cash on cards since they couldn't go out or travel [and the wave of cards started to return from TPGs.] Looks like I was right so far, we'll see how far down we go.

[jzx1103]

Been tracking prices closely for 90s Kobe, Jordan, and 03 Lebron stuff. I don't care much for the Ultra Modern base so don't know if those are still dropping like a rock or not. But these past 7 days, the Kobe Jordan Lebron stuff seemed to have leveled off a bit. Current prices are about 1.5x to 2x compared to Sept/Oct prices last year after these cards also had a 50% price drop from last August prices. The biggest drops were paper Topps Rc. Those have actually dropped down to last Sept/Oct prices. But since the end of April there were sharp drops week to week, but prices have mostly held similar in the past 7 days. It'll be interesting to see if this is basically just another Sept/Oct 2020 situation. (50% to 60% drop, then level off). Btw the Kobe/Jordan/Lebron stuff recovered nicely last time after the drop when they shot up Jan/Feb 21. but the Ultra Moderns (Zion Prizm, Luka Prizm etc) never came back close to their summer 2020 prices again. I see the two as totally different markets.

[gomiamigo]

Originally Posted by Steve88

How much lower can they possibly get? I bought a BGS 8.5 for $1300 (my worst impromptu buy as of yet) a month ago and it’s worth around $800 now.

The white suit card? Or a different one?

[jzx1103]

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

For one thing, the seasonal selloff usually doesn't start until the playoffs are ending [esp for guys still in - Lebron, Giannis, Kawhi, Embiid, Durant, Mitchell, Luka, Trae, etc -- although the middle two seem to still be rising].

Last year I said the bubble would start to burst by the end of 2021, once people got out of covid-sitting at home all day spending their excess cash on cards since they couldn't go out or travel [and the wave of cards started to return from TPGs.] Looks like I was right so far, we'll see how far down we go.

Problem is everyone knows the cycle now and is trying to get ahead of the cycle. We saw this was pretty evident in Baseball cards this spring.

[tmar214]

We have seen these corrections in the past. This one seems more extreme since the run up was so much larger. I think people forget that typically almost all rookie cards drop in their second year and that in a normal market most people lose money buying singles. We got spoiled over the last few years with some big rookie breakouts and the entire market going up.

Originally Posted by Steve88

How much lower can they possibly get? I bought a BGS 8.5 for $1300 (my worst impromptu buy as of yet) a month ago and it’s worth around $800 now.

I did buy with profit I made selling my base Prizm cards so not too worried. I just bought a mint paper Topps Lebron for $300. Where do you predict the floor might be? I know it’s not the rarest rookie card of his but it is his flagship RC


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Well it was 400$ 1 year ago and under 100$ 18 months ago. So I’d say it can still fall pretty far.


Some other comps from 18 months ago

2003 lebron topps chrome psa 10 2k-2500
1986 fleer Jordan psa 9 5600
2007 Durant exquisite rpa 20k
2018 luka silver prizm psa 10 1400
2009 exquisite curry auto bgs 9 ~3k


Not that I’d expect prices to dip back to these levels but it’s easy to forget how far the market has come.

[zac949]

Wrong thread.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Steve88

How much lower can they possibly get? I bought a BGS 8.5 for $1300 (my worst impromptu buy as of yet) a month ago and it’s worth around $800 now.

I did buy with profit I made selling my base Prizm cards so not too worried. I just bought a mint paper Topps Lebron for $300. Where do you predict the floor might be? I know it’s not the rarest rookie card of his but it is his flagship RC


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

$100. These were $10-$20 for a long time because they printed so many. It is his cheapest RC along with MVP and Rookie Exclusives.

[smalltown]

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

For one thing, the seasonal selloff usually doesn't start until the playoffs are ending [esp for guys still in - Lebron, Giannis, Kawhi, Embiid, Durant, Mitchell, Luka, Trae, etc -- although the middle two seem to still be rising].

This. People were trying to play the "seasonal selloff" thing before the regular season even ended. This is something different.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by smalltown

This. People were trying to play the "seasonal selloff" thing before the regular season even ended. This is something different.

I think a lot of the downtrend has to do with how people have perceived this season. A lot of injuries. Too short of an offseason. Too many games in a tight window. The regular season is also more meaningless than ever before. More than half the league makes the playoffs. The difference between the seeding is pretty negligible. You are better off preserving your health and stamina during the season so you can go into the postseason full strength.

I think this is a huge problem for the league going forward. Most irrelevant regular season in all of major sports.

[Zacy87]

Originally Posted by k13

So you Zion prizms pop reports will quadruple?
Would you like to make a wager on that?

Did I say Zion specifically or do you just like to make assumptions like every other thread you chime in on? If you don't think the population of 2019/2020 base cards in the PSA directory isn't going to quadruple, I don't know what to tell you.

The "sneaker investors" that joined the card hobby 12-18 months ago were all told to send every single rookie card into PSA. The write ups in "cook groups" would read "Raw price $50 - PSA 10 price $500" and they would assume any card would come back a 10.

I'm a member in one of these groups because I collect shoes. I see the nonsense that's spewed in these groups and the younger generation follow this advice like lemmings.

[smalltown]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I think a lot of the downtrend has to do with how people have perceived this season. A lot of injuries. Too short of an offseason. Too many games in a tight window. The regular season is also more meaningless than ever before. More than half the league makes the playoffs. The difference between the seeding is pretty negligible. You are better off preserving your health and stamina during the season so you can go into the postseason full strength.

I think this is a huge problem for the league going forward. Most irrelevant regular season in all of major sports.

I think that may play a small part. But i think everything else touched on in this thread is more of the cause.

[bloodwings19]

Originally Posted by Steve88

How much lower can they possibly get? I bought a BGS 8.5 for $1300 (my worst impromptu buy as of yet) a month ago and it’s worth around $800 now.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'm only hurting on one card that I bought around Mid-March. I don't spend on high dollar cards, but I did buy a $900 graded which I bought from here (with the latest PSA casing), a HOF Yankees rookie card when it was 30% off from Jan-Feb. It was pc, but I would totally flip it it went above $1500 back in Jan-Feb. now it is around $750-$950. The reason I bought it because out of 30,000 graded only 3,000 were PSA 10. It was banking on the Mike Trout effect. Not hurting since I sold a lot more than I bought which was mostly very low tier rookie cards, or quick sells on here. I love the crazyiness of Bol Bol, Kyle Guy, KPJ, but Dzanan Musa has hurt me The only complaint I have is the new eBay selling format.

Oversaturation of cards and decline of Pandemic leads to a fast shrinking card market. Gas prices and food prices going up, the end of government employment benefits. The only sustainer are rare cards that is hardly seen on eBay.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by tmar214

Well it was 400$ 1 year ago and under 100$ 18 months ago. So I’d say it can still fall pretty far.


Some other comps from 18 months ago

2003 lebron topps chrome psa 10 2k-2500
1986 fleer Jordan psa 9 5600
2007 Durant exquisite rpa 20k
2018 luka silver prizm psa 10 1400
2009 exquisite curry auto bgs 9 ~3k


Not that I’d expect prices to dip back to these levels but it’s easy to forget how far the market has come.

Exactly.

People forget how huge this bubble was at its peak...

[fabiani12333]

I only collect two NBA players and their prices have been strong and I expect them to stay strong. I sold a card through a consigner in April for 15 times the price I paid for in 2019 -- haha, what the literal hell?

But someone like Kobe is a different matter. I dont generally follow the card market for players, but I'd imagine his prices jumped after his tragic death -- which preceded the pandemic price bubble by a few months. So his prices were already at a high level before the general spike in prices.

Now that prices are dropping, people are probably prioritizing wiser investments. The issue that people don't want to discuss about Kobe is that now that he's gone, he can no longer tend to his brand. He won't be able to keep himself in the public consciousness and stay relevant and popular.

On top of that, you've got Lebron taking over as the face of the Lakers. Lebron tries to be this generations Jordan -- he even took over the role in Space Jam!

[fabiani12333]

Another thing to consider with regards to card prices is the apparent changing demographics of NBA stars. Have you noticed that the newest generation of stars are more foreign born? Giannis, Nikola, Luka and Embid to be specific. Those guys are the MVPs of the modern era.

You've got Tatum and Trae, but they take a back seat to the younger foreign born guys.

[sebreg]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

I only collect two NBA players and their prices have been strong and I expect them to stay strong. I sold a card through a consigner in April for 15 times the price I paid for in 2019 -- haha, what the literal hell?

But someone like Kobe is a different matter. I dont generally follow the card market for players, but I'd imagine his prices jumped after his tragic death -- which preceded the pandemic price bubble by a few months. So his prices were already at a high level before the general spike in prices.

Now that prices are dropping, people are probably prioritizing wiser investments. The issue that people don't want to discuss about Kobe is that now that he's gone, he can no longer tend to his brand. He won't be able to keep himself in the public consciousness and stay relevant and popular.

On top of that, you've got Lebron taking over as the face of the Lakers. Lebron tries to be this generations Jordan -- he even took over the role in Space Jam!

I'm willing to bet Kobe remains in the hobby's mount rushmore (mj/bron). Epic 20 year Laker career. Lebron will not supplant him in Lakers' lore, even if Bron were to win multiple titles with the franchise. I also wouldn't underestimate the importance of Kobe's international following, he was the biggest star when the NBA was finally beginning to be televised globally. The Asian market is a powerhouse of Kobe collectors. He is a whole generations MJ. I suspect it will be a bit like Mantle, not the best player ever, but will always punch above their achievement (not insubstantial) weight with a strong mythological aura continuing to provide shine on their legacies.

[fabiani12333]

Another big thing to consider is that the NBA title favorite, the Nets, are led by a trio of relatively unlikable guys -- they're kind of the NBA's big divas.

I have nothing against Durant, Harden and Kyrie -- they're three of the very best scorers in the NBA -- but their relative lack of likeability probably puts a damper on card prices.

Traditionally you had the very best NBA players stay with a specific team and have their brand tethered to that organization -- Jordan, Magic, Bird, Iverson, Duncan, Kobe, Dirk etc. But now you've got guys like Durant, Kawhi and Lebron quickly moving on to greener pastures. So fans of those respective teams have far less of an attachment to those players.

[codered]

A few things to keep in mind moving forward

Vanessa and Nike recently did not renew their contract. If Nike can’t keep Kobe going I don’t know how interested Kobe’s estate will be in having new Kobe cards moving forward. There is a good chance we don’t see new Kobe cards for a long time

When lebron retires I also don’t see him making any deals with panini. He’s with UD so can’t see him also having a deal with panini. Only reason he has cards no is he’s part of the NBAPA. I don’t think we will see lebron cards for a long time after he retires (well at least not in nba uniform)

It might take some time but when it sets in that neither one of these guys has new cards people will eventually buy up older releases again.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by sebreg

I'm willing to bet Kobe remains in the hobby's mount rushmore (mj/bron). Epic 20 year Laker career. Lebron will not supplant him in Lakers' lore, even if Bron were to win multiple titles with the franchise. I also wouldn't underestimate the importance of Kobe's international following, he was the biggest star when the NBA was finally beginning to be televised globally. The Asian market is a powerhouse of Kobe collectors. He is a whole generations MJ. I suspect it will be a bit like Mantle, not the best player ever, but will always punch above their achievement (not insubstantial) weight with a strong mythological aura continuing to provide shine on their legacies.

There's no doubt that Kobe is one of the all time faces of the NBA -- his untimely death actually adds to his lore. But how can someone who is deceased be a market mover?

When he was announcing documentaries and going to games, he stayed in the public consciousness. Now he's only remembered by fans and collectors, not seen and heard from.

To be honest, I dont like talking too much about this stuff -- it feels disrespectful.

[jzx1103]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

There's no doubt that Kobe is one of the all time faces of the NBA -- his untimely death actually adds to his lore. But how can someone who is deceased be a market mover?

When he was announcing documentaries and going to games, he stayed in the public consciousness. Now he's only remembered by fans and collectors, not seen and heard from.

To be honest, I dont like talking too much about this stuff -- it feels disrespectful.

Gee I don't know, kinda like how all the deceased popular athletes still stay on the top of the Hobby world.