Topps Sapphire Soccer

[KhalDrogo]

The higher box prices go, the fewer boxes get ripped. The fewer singles enter the market. The harder it is for singles prices to move up.

[rutgersjpm]

People are also ignoring the insane premium gem mint grades are getting on soccer cards. No way these dip below $350 at any point.

[reddragonthe]

... wait... are there really people trying to rationally argue that 2018 Sapphire is in some way a good barometer for why this is going to be a huge hit? Probably just some kids on the internet screwing around with us...

... right?

They made 2000ish boxes of 2018 Sapphire Baseball. For a product that contained 700 cards. Leaving you with 300ish of each card. There are 300 Acuna monsters out there from this.

They made 15,000 boxes of this. Even adjust for "box size" you are talking 5,000 comparative boxes. For a checklist that is 1/7 the size. This means there are 4,000 Fati. 4,000 Messi. 4,000 Haaland. Pick your player. They put in 4,000 base cards.

8 months ago soccer didn't even have it's own section on this hobby website. 9 months ago I was buying Mbappe chrome boxes for less than what 3 packs of Bundesliga chrome costs me now.

Baseball has been a market forever. With incredible volumes of people huddled around "collecting".

The two products share a fractured pattern and a name. That's it. They are worlds different.

I agree - at $10/card - it's safe. Very safe. And I think in the next few weeks these will get to $20/card or better based on what we are seeing and past trends of these kinds of releases. Blind optimism gets us there. But then it will require that the market forces of supply and demand want to keep it there.

[RickeyHenderson]

Originally Posted by LittleJimmies

Edit: And I want to add that I think this product has already blown up a large number of peoples perception about soccer cards. It's not out of reason that this will be looked back at as the inflection point in the boom of soccer cards.

It is for me....I suspect I will now dabble in soccer cards and actually watch games with my British friend all because of these 2 boxes at $80 ea. I know I could be in the minority but I am so happy Topps did this in my case

[k13]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I will pay what the market dictates.

Did you also pay $3500 for Messi Prizm PSA 10's???

[fadster]

Just remember things aren't always done logically in terms of PR to price equivalence, just look at the pricing of base refractors compared to purple and green. People will add a premium to the sapphire look in excess of whatever print run rationally dictates, assuming it's blue. It'll be interesting to see how the market absorbs the extra cards and if something ends up having to give (perhaps standard chrome base?)

[netmasters]

Originally Posted by RickeyHenderson

It is for me....I suspect I will now dabble in soccer cards and actually watch games with my British friend all because of these 2 boxes at $80 ea. I know I could be in the minority but I am so happy Topps did this in my case

If there are enough collectors like you that crossover because of this it will be great. If not it's going to be a fascinating watch as the speculation and box prices that go on in the other sports (which I also collect) don't happen like the do in soccer yet.

[Gin&Juice]

All that this release did for me is convince me that I should never again buy another Topps Now, Living Set, Finest or Chrome card from Topps because they are going to constantly move the goal posts. It is laughable that they are now releasing a new 2019 product. And the only difference between it and the product they belatedly released last week is that the “shiny” cards are “shinier.” Oh yeah, and there are no autographs, I.e no actual investment by Topps.

Zero interest.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by k13

Did you also pay $3500 for Messi Prizm PSA 10's???

No. And you know that.

[Gin&Juice]

They put more and more into the market and we act like it is better and rarer. Makes no sense.

[psochaps]

Only 67 listings on ebay currently.

[badkarma318]

Originally Posted by psochaps

Only 67 listings on ebay currently.

119 . . .

[pjray55]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

The higher box prices go, the fewer boxes get ripped. The fewer singles enter the market. The harder it is for singles prices to move up.

Not when you factor breakers into the equation. Fewer boxes get broken when there is diminished demand or the boxes have dried up.

[WHyFLy]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Someone else suggested $100-200, which seems reasonable to me.

Hard to justify $500+ box prices based on that.

I know people's concerns are about the prices but again there is a lot more in this checklist that will get you to there. Remember Mount, Abraham, Hakimi, Lee, Davies (Future Stars), Haaland, Fati, Tete, Aouer all are rookies here. Add in Messi, Ronaldo, Pulisic (1st Chelsea), Mbappe. Even the guys like Son, Salah, Mane all will be desirable. There are a ton of players who will sell in this, plus now that there wasn't any available to the open market, that is huge for us who bought in.

[Raj3sh]

A ton of first time posters in this section, why? Is it a special product?

[notoriousrmb]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

The higher box prices go, the fewer boxes get ripped. The fewer singles enter the market. The harder it is for singles prices to move up.

Wouldn't less singles mean higher prices? I don't understand this train of thought.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by WHyFLy

I know people's concerns are about the prices but again there is a lot more in this checklist that will get you to there. Remember Mount, Abraham, Hakimi, Lee, Davies (Future Stars), Haaland, Fati, Tete, Aouer all are rookies here. Add in Messi, Ronaldo, Pulisic (1st Chelsea), Mbappe. Even the guys like Son, Salah, Mane all will be desirable. There are a ton of players who will sell in this, plus now that there wasn't any available to the open market, that is huge for us who bought in.

And every single one of these players already has 9500 base cards in Chrome, as well as the many other products Topps has released this year.

The whole premise is that Sapphire is special and valuable because it's scarce....except that with 3500-4000 of each base card it's actually not.

Heck...regular Chrome just released last week....and it's got autos....

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by notoriousrmb

Wouldn't less singles mean higher prices? I don't understand this train of thought.

Look at 2020 Topps Chrome Sapphire. I count 36 Luis Robert sales in the 2.5 months since release. That’s anemic for a card with a PR well over 1000. You’d think prices would explode with so few available, but they haven’t moved a bit. The market needs sales data to continue movement. It’s why common cards like Prizm Silvers can appreciate so quickly, and more obscure issues don’t. Too many people need that last comp to make a decision on value.

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by mfw13

And every single one of these players already has 9500 base cards in Chrome, as well as the many other products Topps has released this year.

The whole premise is that Sapphire is special and valuable because it's scarce....except that with 3500-4000 of each base card it's actually not.

Heck...regular Chrome just released last week....and it's got autos....

The premise of Sapphire is that it becomes the most desired "base" rookie card and that more than 4k people will want it in their collection. That is where the value comes from.

[orion9578]

Originally Posted by mfw13

And every single one of these players already has 9500 base cards in Chrome, as well as the many other products Topps has released this year.

The whole premise is that Sapphire is special and valuable because it's scarce....except that with 3500-4000 of each base card it's actually not.

Heck...regular Chrome just released last week....and it's got autos....

Do you collect other sports? Curiosity question.

That's a total base/sapphire base print run of 13,000-13,500. That's like 1/3rd of the graded Luka/Zion prizm graded by PSA. 1/3rd. By one company. BGS/SGC/Basement graders, raw and unopened could still be added to the total Luka/Zion.

Are there only 13,500 people who will want a Fati/Haaland assuming they become a legend? Biggest fan base of any sport.

I can't imagine the prices of basketball cards if they had a print run as low as this. It would be pure craziness.

[estebahn73]

Originally Posted by mfw13

This is truly hilarious....flippers/investors falling over themselves backwards for the opportunity to sell to other flippers/investors who are thinking the exact same thing as they are.

Meanwhile, actual demand for singles is going to be miniscule, and in a year, everyone will have forgotten that these cards even exist....

I mean, you're talking about a product with ZERO autographs......crazy......

Is this a joke? This guy sounds like that K13 guy.

Topps Chrome was never about the sticker autos. It is about the base and color refractor RCs. In a year, I would say the box price would be double the current price, especially if Fati and Haaland play the way we expect them to play.

[cj828282]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

The higher box prices go, the fewer boxes get ripped. The fewer singles enter the market. The harder it is for singles prices to move up.

Sounds like 20 TCS. Edit. Just noticed your other posting. Exactly what happens.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by orion9578

Are there only 13,500 people who will want a Fati/Haaland assuming they become a legend? Biggest fan base of any sport.

I'm not even sure that there are 13,500 soccer card collectors in the entire world. Yes there are millions of soccer fans...probably several billion...but most of them are either too poor to collect sports cards or come from places where there is no tradition of collecting sports cards.

The price of one box of Sapphire is probably more than the annual earnings of many soccer fans, and is probably more than the monthly earnings of probably 70-80% of them.

And the assumption that Fati & Haaland will become legends is a huge one.

Fati has accomplished nothing yet.

Haaland has had one very good year.

There's a reason why out of all the good young players that have played soccer over the last 15+ years, only Messi and CR7 have become legends. And that's because it's very hard to stay healthy and play consistently well over a long enough period of time to become a "legend".

[reddragonthe]

Originally Posted by orion9578

Do you collect other sports? Curiosity question.

That's a total base/sapphire base print run of 13,000-13,500. That's like 1/3rd of the graded Luka/Zion prizm graded by PSA. 1/3rd. By one company. BGS/SGC/Basement graders, raw and unopened could still be added to the total Luka/Zion.

Are there only 13,500 people who will want a Fati/Haaland assuming they become a legend? Biggest fan base of any sport.

I can't imagine the prices of basketball cards if they had a print run as low as this. It would be pure craziness.

Man. Lots to unpack here. But glad to have people from basketball helping us out with market dynamics and global fan base comparisons.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by estebahn73

In a year, I would say the box price would be double the current price, especially if Fati and Haaland play the way we expect them to play.

Why? Make an argument that is based in real economics.

1) Fati and Haaland are already at maximum hype.
2) Over the next year, Topps is going to release probably 10-15 other soccer products that will divert collectors $$$ away from Sapphire. And Panini will have several Euro 2021 products as well as early WC 22 products.
3) Other good young players will pop up and divert collector attention away from Fati & Haaland.

Have you already forgotten how everyone was drooling over Sancho, Haavertz, and Werner last spring? But then they started to struggle, and now everyone has largely forgotten about them.

It's just really hard for any player to maintain collector attention for a long period of time.

And it's really hard for any one product to maintain collector attention for a long time when there are new products continuously being released.