NBA Top Shot - High Risk, High Reward?

[grade]

Originally Posted by Brobocop

UFC is a total poop show. Spread way too thin and let's not forget, they did all these expansion sites while their bread and butter is still in "beta."

You buying any other NFTs other than Dapper , Panini and Topps?

Time to look around for more options.

[rubendn]

Originally Posted by Duvalier

Should’ve gotten rid of the CS

They made CS a lot less relevant with the new style packs.

As someone who thought before they did it that having a chance at a rare/legendary in regular packs would be cool, I don't think it really works.

The chances are so small that you are mostly getting 4 worthless moments for double the price.

[pyrexswerve]

Originally Posted by Eckstein197

So TS on socials has stated these packs are going to happen once this upcoming week to finish off the ASG drop. Then they’re going to take a week off to “analyze data and discuss packs moving forward”

The way they’ve worded the past couple of posts talking about packs and these surveys, they seem very aware they screwed up massively

I bet once packs return mid March it will be back to the old method or at least a massive revamp on the odds of these packs, raising LE and rares significantly higher and lowering commons odds

I mean when they announced this whole loot pack stuff with the KD drop they clearly said it was a test for this month only. I don't know why everyone on social thought it was gonna be a permanent change to this style.

No one would complain about these loot packs, myself included, if the standard price was $9 & the elite pack was $29 for example.

Really the mistake TS made IMO was introducing this style & increasing the price substantially.
Then when you buy 5 packs & hit all 60ks except one moment, all the moments are worthless since they are not burning moments.

If you get a serial # 58k for a trash player, you cannot sell them at $2. It takes years regardless of what anyone says on here. The only time they do is if for some reason that trash player hits a flash challenge which isn't often.

[mjohnatgt]

Well, we may be near market saturation, especially if a player has multiple 60Ks and a 40k.

What do you guys think of the "cheat code" ability to complete challenges. Just submit a specific moment and you automatically get the reward. Definitely a way to reward those whales who bought early to hold and not flood the market.

[Eckstein197]

Originally Posted by mjohnatgt

Well, we may be near market saturation, especially if a player has multiple 60Ks and a 40k.

What do you guys think of the "cheat code" ability to complete challenges. Just submit a specific moment and you automatically get the reward. Definitely a way to reward those whales who bought early to hold and not flood the market.

I’m fine with it cuz nearly all the time it will cost more to buy all the cheat code requirements than just buying the moments you need for the challenge, so it won’t create a big influx of people completing.

[Eckstein197]

Originally Posted by pyrexswerve

I mean when they announced this whole loot pack stuff with the KD drop they clearly said it was a test for this month only. I don't know why everyone on social thought it was gonna be a permanent change to this style.

No one would complain about these loot packs, myself included, if the standard price was $9 & the elite pack was $29 for example.

Really the mistake TS made IMO was introducing this style & increasing the price substantially.
Then when you buy 5 packs & hit all 60ks except one moment, all the moments are worthless since they are not burning moments.

If you get a serial # 58k for a trash player, you cannot sell them at $2. It takes years regardless of what anyone says on here. The only time they do is if for some reason that trash player hits a flash challenge which isn't often.

Exactly they just totally screwed up pricing. Jonboybeats who’s a well known guy in the TS community, ran a Monte Carlo simulation on the last drop and for both standard and elite over 75% of packs were negative EV. That’s just too many. Negative EV isn’t a bad thing but when you have anywhere from 75-85% of packs being losers, it will not help user retention/user buying packs retention

[grade]

Originally Posted by Eckstein197

Exactly they just totally screwed up pricing. Jonboybeats who’s a well known guy in the TS community, ran a Monte Carlo simulation on the last drop and for both standard and elite over 75% of packs were negative EV. That’s just too many. Negative EV isn’t a bad thing but when you have anywhere from 75-85% of packs being losers, it will not help user retention/user buying packs retention

Why did you not inform everyone here about that 75%-85% losers?

You talk a great story but seems like you want everyone to lose money. WTF???

[rubendn]

Originally Posted by Eckstein197

Exactly they just totally screwed up pricing. Jonboybeats who’s a well known guy in the TS community, ran a Monte Carlo simulation on the last drop and for both standard and elite over 75% of packs were negative EV. That’s just too many. Negative EV isn’t a bad thing but when you have anywhere from 75-85% of packs being losers, it will not help user retention/user buying packs retention

It has to be towards the high-end of that range if not higher. Even the packs where you hit a Rising Star are negative at the $19 price tag.

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by rubendn

It has to be towards the high-end of that range if not higher. Even the packs where you hit a Rising Star are negative at the $19 price tag.

This is the problem. I hit 2 rising stars in my 2 standard packs and still lost money when I had a 34% chance of hitting one per pack. So I beat the odds and still lost.

Which leads me to argue that the new edition sizes are way too big (60,000 for base, 17,500 for rising stars).

[pyrexswerve]

Originally Posted by mjohnatgt

What do you guys think of the "cheat code" ability to complete challenges. Just submit a specific moment and you automatically get the reward. Definitely a way to reward those whales who bought early to hold and not flood the market.

I don't mind it. A legendary costs a lot. If you got one of a certain player, chances are you like him, like the team or the moment itself. So I don't mind them rewarding those users as it is a niche group anyway.

[rifleman69]

Originally Posted by Eckstein197

Exactly they just totally screwed up pricing. Jonboybeats who’s a well known guy in the TS community, ran a Monte Carlo simulation on the last drop and for both standard and elite over 75% of packs were negative EV. That’s just too many. Negative EV isn’t a bad thing but when you have anywhere from 75-85% of packs being losers, it will not help user retention/user buying packs retention

Seems as if it's working perfectly actually.

[rubendn]

It's hard to figure out what their objective is for the platform (besides siphoning huge gobs of cash from users).

Is it an investment?

Is it for collectors?

The only moments that might be a worthwhile investment if any are legendary/rare moments of superstars which at this point make up way less than 1% of all moments minted.

For team collectors how does it feel when they ruin your team set by issuing a legendary moment (i.e. Vince Carter) and it would cost you thousands to keep that team set intact?

For challenge players it seems like a never ending overpay of certain worthless moments to complete a challenge for a moment that seems to devalue by the day after minting and sometimes is worth less than the premium paid for the moments acquired to complete.

Who is exactly is getting a good experience out of this?

I'm pretty close to just selling off my 400+ moments and probably haven't done it because it is such a pain in the ass to list them.

And with that said, Top Shot is still better than All Day.

[Brobocop]

It's what I've been saying, to entice and keep new users, you have to give them more value than you would normally. Not only are you a new platform, you're asking people to be okay with paying money for digital assets, not something a majority of people are used to doing. If you're a new user and pay $20 for a pack and get three $2 moments, you're done and moving on to something else since you feel like you just flushed your $20 down the toilet.

Anyone who said that this early on, packs should be delivering mostly -EV doesn't understand how this works. Amazon wasn't profitable for years. I'm not saying Top Shot is Amazon but the idea is the same. Lose money up front to attract and retain customers and then milk them once they're ingrained into the platform.

[pyrexswerve]

I forgot who asked about queue size this last week or the week before, but during today's S1 trade in ticket drop, I believe the queue size was about 2.5-3K from what people reported on social. FYI

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by pyrexswerve

I forgot who asked about queue size this last week or the week before, but during today's S1 trade in ticket drop, I believe the queue size was about 2.5-3K from what people reported on social. FYI

Brutal. So 1 in 5 people who traded in 350 tickets got a pack.

[Eckstein197]

Originally Posted by grade

Why did you not inform everyone here about that 75%-85% losers?

You talk a great story but seems like you want everyone to lose money. WTF???

You realize this simulation is run after the pack release right, using the real life market values for the moments released in the packs? Do I need to link the Twitter account with the simulation and he tweeted it literally yesterday?

Ah I got it, grade you need me to become a time traveler and go back to last week, got it

[Eckstein197]

Originally Posted by rubendn

It has to be towards the high-end of that range if not higher. Even the packs where you hit a Rising Star are negative at the $19 price tag.

Some of the RS are plus EV at the 19 dollar mark when the packs dropped. Guys like Scottie Barnes were around 25-26

[Eckstein197]

https://twitter.com/jonboybeats/stat...641392643?s=21

https://twitter.com/jonboybeats/stat...956886018?s=21


Here are the tweets I was mentioning. These were posted on the 27th, Sunday, numerous days after the pack drop in order to run the simulations


Grade, please tell me how I’m in the wrong here for just relaying information from a guy on TS from Twitter. Please tell me how it’s all my fault the packs were this bad.

[helstad]

Quick question, when a set is marked as "open" does it mean moments are still in packs to be pulled or that new moments can still be added to the set?

[pyrexswerve]

Originally Posted by helstad

Quick question, when a set is marked as "open" does it mean moments are still in packs to be pulled or that new moments can still be added to the set?

The latter.

[helstad]

Originally Posted by pyrexswerve

The latter.

Cheers!

[grade]

Originally Posted by Eckstein197

You realize this simulation is run after the pack release right, using the real life market values for the moments released in the packs? Do I need to link the Twitter account with the simulation and he tweeted it literally yesterday?

Ah I got it, grade you need me to become a time traveler and go back to last week, got it

No i dont realize anything TS. I have a life. I just have some moments to figure out how to sell is the only reason i am here. You all have both great and bad opinions.

Flippers like you have great information if you share it before the event. Everyone and anyone is an expert after the fact.

[Eckstein197]

Originally Posted by grade

No i dont realize anything TS. I have a life. I just have some moments to figure out how to sell is the only reason i am here. You all have both great and bad opinions.

Flippers like you have great information if you share it before the event. Everyone and anyone is an expert after the fact.

I was literally just relaying information I saw on Twitter. Literally said so in the post. But you don’t read, you just say unhinged things and don’t actually read what other people here post

He literally just ran the data from the marketplace after the pack drop, please tell me how I was supposed to know all these monetary market values before the drop

Don’t act like a victim, you saying you “have a life”, when I gave the exact details in my thread. If you have too much “of a life” to not read people’s posts and just react unhinged, why are you on the forum?

[grade]

Originally Posted by Eckstein197

I was literally just relaying information I saw on Twitter. Literally said so in the post. But you don’t read, you just say unhinged things and don’t actually read what other people here post

He literally just ran the data from the marketplace after the pack drop, please tell me how I was supposed to know all these monetary market values before the drop

Don’t act like a victim, you saying you “have a life”, when I gave the exact details in my thread. If you have too much “of a life” to not read people’s posts and just react unhinged, why are you on the forum?

i am here to figure out what and when i can sell my 700 moments and how to spend my dapper balance.

Your information is really misdirecting a lot of people . Try and give some advice before events happen. I tried to TELL EVERYONE HERE LAST YEAR BEFORE TS boomed. Not after it boomed. Did it in a simple way, JUST GET IN NOW. Wanted everyone to make money when it was possible. I was not a shill, whale or early adaptor, Just a normal user like everyone here.

[Eckstein197]

Originally Posted by grade

i am here to figure out what and when i can sell my 700 moments and how to spend my dapper balance.

Your information is really misdirecting a lot of people . Try and give some advice before events happen. I tried to TELL EVERYONE HERE LAST YEAR BEFORE TS boomed. Not after it boomed. Did it in a simple way, JUST GET IN NOW. Wanted everyone to make money when it was possible. I was not a shill, whale or early adaptor, Just a normal user like everyone here.

What information? I’ve given out zero advice on whether a person should buy or not buy a pack when it comes to these loot box style packs. Why should someone take my advice, I’m one person who uses the platform. I don’t have this heightened sense of importance you seem to have. You continually want people to follow your advice.

Me on the other hand I don’t care how people spend their money on the platform because it’s not my money. If someone asks I will give an opinion but I’m not going to spew random info because people can spend their money anyway they like

Why should I expect someone to follow my advice to a tee, that’s weird