📈Is the correction over? What cards look attractive with an upside potential?📈

[Nomad]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Wait, you can't grow your wealth living on the coasts?

You don't grow wealth on the coast, you inject it straight off shipments of fresh shiny from Free Prizm zones, amplified through proprietary AI-MJ algorithms. Not very nutritious, but a bountiful harvest, if value withstands the net reconversion process.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Wait, you can't grow your wealth living on the coasts?

Cost of living drains you dry.

$300-$400k/year in some vhcol areas.

You could retire early in Kansas on that. Or even afford to open wax.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

The Wagner never goes down

Sent from my SM-S711U using Tapatalk

Ok but that depends on your timeframe. If you hold it long enough it sit will increase nominally. Which is such a pointless way to measure anything anymore. Then it’s just a question of whether your fiat was devalued or your investment went up

It’s still not possible to determine what the current value is without a public auction because you can’t effectively borrow against it and it doesn’t have any objective way of determining value.

A lot of these ultra high end cards just get passed around between the same people over and over anyways.

[LondonGames]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

This has been the trajectory for 99%+ of what’s been released since the early 90s. It doesn’t matter how many new entrants come to the hobby. They cannot overcome the fact that most rookies flame out, and current production far outpaces demand.

A lot of great cards go down over time unfortunately. 1998 SPA Manning is worth less today than it was 25 years ago. When BGS started, a 1989 UD Griffey gem was $2500+. It sits at $575 today. Cards should be treated as depreciating collectibles, not appreciating assets.

pretty sure both of these examples are poor

1. Is the Peyton Manning SPA less now than it was 25 years ago?

2. When BGS started, the criteria for a BGS 9.5 was much harder than it is today. Fairly certain for the first few years of BGS, GEM rates overall were less than 5% and that contained sets like 1999 Molten Metal which were just about guaranteed 9.5s for the metal cards. for normal sets i'm pretty sure it was around 2-3%. 1989 Griffeys were damn near impossible. so not sure how you're comparing early BGS 9.5 prices for a Griffey to todays.

seems like an intellectually dishonest take on your part choosing BGS and not PSA. PSA 10 Griffeys are way up

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by LondonGames

pretty sure both of these examples are poor

1. Is the Peyton Manning SPA less now than it was 25 years ago?

2. When BGS started, the criteria for a BGS 9.5 was much harder than it is today. Fairly certain for the first few years of BGS, GEM rates overall were less than 5% and that contained sets like 1999 Molten Metal which were just about guaranteed 9.5s for the metal cards. for normal sets i'm pretty sure it was around 2-3%. 1989 Griffeys were damn near impossible. so not sure how you're comparing early BGS 9.5 prices for a Griffey to todays.

seems like an intellectually dishonest take on your part choosing BGS and not PSA. PSA 10 Griffeys are way up

Those two cards in BGS 9.5+ slabs were the pinnacle of the hobby 25 years ago. I don’t know how you can rationalize using those examples as being intellectually dishonest. The point is that you can pick modern blue chips, be right about the importance and collectibility of the card, and still be wrong about the value over time.

I don’t remember PSA prices very well from back then. Would have to dig up the old Beckett mags. But I don’t think either card is beating the almost 4x return the S&P has given you since the peak of the Dot Com bubble. Like I said, treat them as depreciating collectibles and be thankful when they actually appreciate over time.

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Ok but that depends on your timeframe. If you hold it long enough it sit will increase nominally. Which is such a pointless way to measure anything anymore. Then it’s just a question of whether your fiat was devalued or your investment went up

It’s still not possible to determine what the current value is without a public auction because you can’t effectively borrow against it and it doesn’t have any objective way of determining value.

A lot of these ultra high end cards just get passed around between the same people over and over anyways.

one would very likely have to be able to sit/hold for some amount of time horizon, but the compound growth rate of the Mastro(-trimmed) Wagner since its sale 40 years ago is ~10% after going ~45x over that time.

The blue-chip DJIA is up ~34x over the 1984 level, or ~8.5% annual growth

And with a Wagner you get a Wagner

dunno about how much reinvesting dividends adds to the boring stock-index route

[GOATcards]

damn, that Wagner growth rate turns out to be a way-low estimate

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T206_H...les_since_2000

a SGC 2 Wagner went for over $7M in 2022

[anusinha]

Originally Posted by LondonGames

pretty sure both of these examples are poor

1. Is the Peyton Manning SPA less now than it was 25 years ago?

2. When BGS started, the criteria for a BGS 9.5 was much harder than it is today. Fairly certain for the first few years of BGS, GEM rates overall were less than 5% and that contained sets like 1999 Molten Metal which were just about guaranteed 9.5s for the metal cards. for normal sets i'm pretty sure it was around 2-3%. 1989 Griffeys were damn near impossible. so not sure how you're comparing early BGS 9.5 prices for a Griffey to todays.

seems like an intellectually dishonest take on your part choosing BGS and not PSA. PSA 10 Griffeys are way up

Wow, Manning SPA FW /2000 is under 1000 or right around there in BGS 9. Makes you wonder about stuff like a Stroud Prizm that sells for about 1000.

[Nomad]

in 20 years the card will have been flipped a hundred times. Ride the wave.

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Those two cards in BGS 9.5+ slabs were the pinnacle of the hobby 25 years ago. I don’t know how you can rationalize using those examples as being intellectually dishonest.

you don't have a good track record of intellectual honesty or accountability, this has been proven six ways from sunday

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

damn, that Wagner growth rate turns out to be a way-low estimate

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T206_H...les_since_2000

a SGC 2 Wagner went for over $7M in 2022

Yea all the record sales just happen to be private with no way of verifying.

[Nomad]

for any card price to be considered legit, must be willing to throw it on eBay for .99 in a 24 hour auction.

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Yea all the record sales just happen to be private with no way of verifying.

i thought you were going to say something about 2022 being a pandemic bubble year (on the downslope from 2021 but still)

given the time i'll go down the public-auction-sales rabbit hole and see if it still proves the point that a card like the Wagner is basically pretty consistently to the moon

no need to defend a thesis at all costs sir

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

i thought you were going to say something about 2022 being a pandemic bubble year (on the downslope from 2021 but still)

given the time i'll go down the public-auction-sales rabbit hole and see if it still proves the point that a card like the Wagner is basically pretty consistently to the moon

no need to defend a thesis at all costs sir

My thesis wasn't that every card goes down over time.

Of course you can find outliers in every single collectible class. Art, classic cars, beanie babies, pokemon, etc...

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

My thesis wasn't that every card goes down over time.

Of course you can find outliers in every single collectible class. Art, classic cars, beanie babies, pokemon, etc...

it's not just that a Wagner-type outlier doesn't go down, it appears to go up faster than a blue-chip stock index (which makes sense given the marginal economics involved)

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

it's not just that a Wagner-type outlier doesn't go down, it appears to go up faster than a blue-chip stock index (which makes sense given the marginal economics involved)

This is the part that I think is arguable. but there's no way to verify one way or another

but at the level of ultra wealthy that it would take to even be in the market for these types of cards, they probably don't care if it beats the market or not

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

This is the part that I think is arguable. but there's no way to verify one way or another

but at the level of ultra wealthy that it would take to even be in the market for these types of cards, they probably don't care if it beats the market or not

i.e. marginal propensity to clect goes up with net worth

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Not the way you can in a fly over state.

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Cost of living drains you dry.

$300-$400k/year in some vhcol areas.

You could retire early in Kansas on that. Or even afford to open wax.

I grew up outside of Cleveland, Ohio; the first one in my blue collar family to attend college. From there moved to the South for a lifestyle change, and then again to further my education.

Yet the last 9 years here in the suburbs of L.A. have been the most financially prosperous of my life. I'm not telling you this to brag, but to paint a picture of an area where I get to be around a lot of professionally like minded people that present greater opportunities to grow and earn more money than anyone in my bloodline ever has.

I get that the cost of living can be a drain if you are a teacher, or police officer, or some other job with a capped earning protentional, but in a lot of areas that's not at all the case here. To wake up and go to a job where everybody knows you could up and quit and find a higher paying job before you notice a paycheck is missing is the recipe for prosperity. That's the opportunity here on the coast... not what Fox News tried to scare you with.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Nomad

You don't grow wealth on the coast, you inject it straight off shipments of fresh shiny from Free Prizm zones, amplified through proprietary AI-MJ algorithms. Not very nutritious, but a bountiful harvest, if value withstands the net reconversion process.

Just wait til they open up the Nesmith Topps Chrome Taco-fractor high speed rail zone near me and I figure out how to leverage that into Sotheby's West Coast showcase auctions... I'll be living in Beverly Hills in no time!

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

Almost impossible. I've heard the only way is through LeBron and Patty Mahomes Gold Prizms.

The CEO of my company actually got the job because he pulled a 2012 LeBron Prizm Gold and it Gemmed at PSA. Got offered the role on the spot once the owner saw it!

[Nomad]

Originally Posted by tjforce View Post
Wait, you can't grow your wealth living on the coasts?

"You don't grow wealth on the coast, you inject it straight off shipments of fresh shiny from Free Prizm zones, amplified through proprietary AI-MJ algorithms. Not very nutritious, but a bountiful harvest, if value withstands the net reconversion process."

Originally Posted by tjforce

Just wait til they open up the Nesmith Topps Chrome Taco-fractor high speed rail zone near me and I figure out how to leverage that into Sotheby's West Coast showcase auctions... I'll be living in Beverly Hills in no time!

The "Double A" line will literally flip a switch and pummel all kinds of zombies, breaking through multiple brick walls, to get you to the coast and its fresh and clean air on time.

Can't help you with the Sotheby's West Coast showcase auctions thing. For one, Nesmith is a known hobby dud. We are talking actual achievement, not the pachinko layers of the hobby. And Beverley Hills hasn't been the same since TFP-EM FAP "task force protect EMs insemination fab plant" took control.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by tjforce

I grew up outside of Cleveland, Ohio; the first one in my blue collar family to attend college. From there moved to the South for a lifestyle change, and then again to further my education.

Yet the last 9 years here in the suburbs of L.A. have been the most financially prosperous of my life. I'm not telling you this to brag, but to paint a picture of an area where I get to be around a lot of professionally like minded people that present greater opportunities to grow and earn more money than anyone in my bloodline ever has.

I get that the cost of living can be a drain if you are a teacher, or police officer, or some other job with a capped earning protentional, but in a lot of areas that's not at all the case here. To wake up and go to a job where everybody knows you could up and quit and find a higher paying job before you notice a paycheck is missing is the recipe for prosperity. That's the opportunity here on the coast... not what Fox News tried to scare you with.

Don’t forget about keepin up with the joneses!

There is intense pressure to do that in LA.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by tjforce

I grew up outside of Cleveland, Ohio; the first one in my blue collar family to attend college. From there moved to the South for a lifestyle change, and then again to further my education.

Yet the last 9 years here in the suburbs of L.A. have been the most financially prosperous of my life. I'm not telling you this to brag, but to paint a picture of an area where I get to be around a lot of professionally like minded people that present greater opportunities to grow and earn more money than anyone in my bloodline ever has.

I get that the cost of living can be a drain if you are a teacher, or police officer, or some other job with a capped earning protentional, but in a lot of areas that's not at all the case here. To wake up and go to a job where everybody knows you could up and quit and find a higher paying job before you notice a paycheck is missing is the recipe for prosperity. That's the opportunity here on the coast... not what Fox News tried to scare you with.

Talking about the experience of your average American, not people at the extremes.

[imbluestreak23]

There's pros and cons to locations.

Living near the coast, at least the west coast, it makes you realize in vivid detail just how money truly is the root of all evil. The almighty dollar dictates every lifestyle choice.

Miss the midwest in that respect for sure.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by tjforce

I grew up outside of Cleveland, Ohio; the first one in my blue collar family to attend college. From there moved to the South for a lifestyle change, and then again to further my education.

Yet the last 9 years here in the suburbs of L.A. have been the most financially prosperous of my life. I'm not telling you this to brag, but to paint a picture of an area where I get to be around a lot of professionally like minded people that present greater opportunities to grow and earn more money than anyone in my bloodline ever has.

I get that the cost of living can be a drain if you are a teacher, or police officer, or some other job with a capped earning protentional, but in a lot of areas that's not at all the case here. To wake up and go to a job where everybody knows you could up and quit and find a higher paying job before you notice a paycheck is missing is the recipe for prosperity. That's the opportunity here on the coast... not what Fox News tried to scare you with.

Funny you say that because if there's a place where you can make bank being a teacher/cop, it's California.

Originally Posted by tjforce

The CEO of my company actually got the job because he pulled a 2012 LeBron Prizm Gold and it Gemmed at PSA. Got offered the role on the spot once the owner saw it!

I remember hearing about this, that's how you get make it around here

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Don’t forget about keepin up with the joneses!

There is intense pressure to do that in LA.

If you are outside of those groups, it actually makes it easier to save money.