Topps out---Fanatics in

[OscarOne]

Originally Posted by Handsome Wes

Yeah not going to lie, one of the worst parts about me being on the Luddite side of the Crypto / NFT craze is how people keep making bank while I’m on the sidelines saying to myself ‘well, it’s more fiscally responsible watching my mutual funds slowly grow until I hit retirement age a few decades from now’

I think part of it is that it just has the whole...crypto stink on it. I know a bunch of people into the crypto market, and they all feel like they are in a big pyramid scheme they way they are always pumping up the stocks to people. Its not that its wrong...it just does not feel right.

I try to remind myself there is some dude who was like "I don't need moving pictures! BOOKS ARE FIND GODDAMNIT! WHY ARE YOU MESSING WITH SOMETHING THAT IS NOT BROKE!", and that right now I sound like that guy. I am totally trying to make peace with the fact that I am just way behind the curve on what is cool.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by OscarOne

I think part of it is that it just has the whole...crypto stink on it. I know a bunch of people into the crypto market, and they all feel like they are in a big pyramid scheme they way they are always pumping up the stocks to people. Its not that its wrong...it just does not feel right.

I try to remind myself there is some dude who was like "I don't need moving pictures! BOOKS ARE FIND GODDAMNIT! WHY ARE YOU MESSING WITH SOMETHING THAT IS NOT BROKE!", and that right now I sound like that guy. I am totally trying to make peace with the fact that I am just way behind the curve on what is cool.

Considering they're creating tether out of whole cloth and using it to buy bitcoin it is a huge scam. Its a matter of when do you get out. The scary thing with crypto is that its traded 24/7, at any point this can all blow up, the exchange will go down, and they'll prevent you from withdrawing money. The price of bitcoin is almost 100% being driven by stable coins that have zero backing unless you trust made up chinese commercial paper.

[jlklemp]

Originally Posted by ewokpelts

And what will happen to the NFTs when there’s a cyber attack? Or society collapses and digital anything is like Dust in the wind!

I'm not sure how secure WAX NFTs are, but well-implemented blockchain technology is likely impossible to hack and it would make NFTs way more secure than any physical cards.

As for society collapsing...that's entirely possible, in which case I wouldn't really care about my NFTs (if I had any) or physical cards either.

[jlklemp]

Originally Posted by Handsome Wes

Re: physical cards vs. NFT's:
- The oldest card in my collection is from 1951. 70 years has gone by, it's been in countless hands or stuffed in countless drawers or been moved around countless times. And yet it has survived all that. It's not in 10 gem mint condition - but its age tells a story. It has been preserved since the time when my dad was my son's age.

All that to say... NFT's aren't a hobby for me. But if it is for you? I'm glad that you can find something that you enjoy!

The thing about the blockchain is that every transaction is recorded FOREVER. So, although NFTs are new and don't have that 70 year history yet, 70 years from now a father can turn his NFT collection over to his son and his son can trace the entire history of that NFT. He may not be able to see personal details of every person who owned it at one point (do you know all the people who owned that 1951 card?), but they'll know exactly what time that NFT changed hands and at what price point.

If it's a particularly famous NFT (like the infamous T206 Honus Wagner), then there will probably be magazine articles or book entries about it that tell us all kinds of fun facts. In fact, I've already seen articles about many of the NBA Top Shot NFTs, and those are no more than a few years old.

[jlklemp]

Originally Posted by k13

Every physical card is a digital card on your phone so digital cards are pointless.

I know you're being a bit sarcastic (?), but NFTs are obviously way more sophisticated than a digital image of a physical baseball card.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by jlklemp

The thing about the blockchain is that every transaction is recorded FOREVER. So, although NFTs are new and don't have that 70 year history yet, 70 years from now a father can turn his NFT collection over to his son and his son can trace the entire history of that NFT. He may not be able to see personal details of every person who owned it at one point (do you know all the people who owned that 1951 card?), but they'll know exactly what time that NFT changed hands and at what price point.

If it's a particularly famous NFT (like the infamous T206 Honus Wagner), then there will probably be magazine articles or book entries about it that tell us all kinds of fun facts. In fact, I've already seen articles about many of the NBA Top Shot NFTs, and those are no more than a few years old.

Before those 70 years are up, quantum computing will bust up all block chains.

[jlklemp]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

Before those 70 years are up, quantum computing will bust up all block chains.

You never know. Could be!

[monkeymcgee]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

Before those 70 years are up, quantum computing will bust up all block chains.

And counterfeit paper replicas will be impossible to distinguish from your favorite physical cards

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by monkeymcgee

And counterfeit paper replicas will be impossible to distinguish from your favorite physical cards

I’ve said this for many years now about all cards here.

But for a while, tech will also be able to detect replicas…probably via phones…but only after said replicas are introduced and have proliferated. Third-party grading will have long disappeared and will be the subject of jokes.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

Before those 70 years are up, quantum computing will bust up all block chains.

Quantum superiority is just a risk for the keys, right? And as long as you use a rotating key, and continue to update for latest bit lengths you should probably be ok against attacks


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by pewe

Quantum superiority is just a risk for the keys, right? And as long as you use a rotating key, and continue to update for latest bit lengths you should probably be ok against attacks

It’s not just a risk for the keys. Some people think there will be (literal) breakthroughs in the next decade.

Besides, while there will always be technological innovation, non-technical factors are the reason why much tech fails.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

It’s not just a risk for the keys. Some people think there will be (literal) breakthroughs in the next decade.

Besides, while there will always be technological innovation, non-technical factors are the reason why much tech fails.

I totally get the breakthroughs… they’ve already been happening. And more are coming.

But beyond the security keys, what are the other risks for quantum vs. crypto?

Cryptologists have known about the risks for decades, which is why they’ve continued to engineer ahead of the problem. I’ve been told the goal is to stay roughly 30 years ahead (ie current cryptography is easy to defeat… like <1 min… by computers in 30 years).

[Bcwcardz]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Bcwcardz]

Someone just shot this off in another forum. Wow. That’s a long time.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[JRX]

I bet they're all 20 year deals.

[SleepyWill]

Just from a pure business perspective, it makes zero sense to gain the rights and not purchase both Panini & Topps out right.

From a cost savings alone, integrating your policy/culture into an existing supply chain is far, far easier than trying to establish an all new business process flow.

[progers9119]

Originally Posted by SleepyWill

Just from a pure business perspective, it makes zero sense to gain the rights and not purchase both Panini & Topps out right.

From a cost savings alone, integrating your policy/culture into an existing supply chain is far, far easier than trying to establish an all new business process flow.

Fanatics has an extensive supply chain as it is.

I'm not convinced they need either Topps/Panini for their intellectual property, but they definitely don't need them for their supply chain.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by pewe

I totally get the breakthroughs… they’ve already been happening. And more are coming.

But beyond the security keys, what are the other risks for quantum vs. crypto?

Cryptologists have known about the risks for decades, which is why they’ve continued to engineer ahead of the problem. I’ve been told the goal is to stay roughly 30 years ahead (ie current cryptography is easy to defeat… like <1 min… by computers in 30 years).

Developments in quantum double roughly every 18 months now, so they’ll need luck to keep up.

All hashing algorithms are always going to be vulnerable eventually. Wallets are vulnerable.

Producing “quantum safe” tech or algorithms on an ongoing basis just means there will always be an arms race.

[notoriousrmb]

Originally Posted by progers9119

Fanatics has an extensive supply chain as it is.

I'm not convinced they need either Topps/Panini for their intellectual property, but they definitely don't need them for their supply chain.

And this is what worries many current collectors. Fanatics may become the Walmart of cards.

They don't need the current distributors, they don't need online resellers, they already have all that in house.

And if they are busy making all these mega-deals with the major sports and their player's associations, why would they go through all that trouble just to rebrand some existing Topps cards?

I'm not going to assume to know anything that will happen in 2023, but the last thing I would expect is for Fanatics to just re-use Topps and/or Panini brands after putting this much money towards doing something completely new.

[SleepyWill]

Originally Posted by progers9119

Fanatics has an extensive supply chain as it is.

I'm not convinced they need either Topps/Panini for their intellectual property, but they definitely don't need them for their supply chain.

As the two produce completely different consumer goods, I'd wager they do.

Strategically, as they're dipping their toes into this pool, it would be easier to use existing & established supply chains that both Topps & Panini use currently.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by progers9119

I'm not convinced they need either Topps/Panini for their intellectual property, but they definitely don't need them for their supply chain.

This. The most similar analogy would be Topps buying Donruss, Leaf or Fleer after these companies stopped producing cards. Could Topps have bought them? Sure, probably. But there wasn’t a reason for them to. I suppose they could’ve hired some of their out of work staff to shore up operations.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by SleepyWill

As the two produce completely different consumer goods, I'd wager they do.

Strategically, as they're dipping their toes into this pool, it would be easier to use existing & established supply chains that both Topps & Panini use currently.

They're not dipping their toes, they're diving head first and kicking everyone else out of the pool. The are the industry now in the three biggest sports.

[Timsterino]

Originally Posted by progers9119

Fanatics has an extensive supply chain as it is.

I'm not convinced they need either Topps/Panini for their intellectual property, but they definitely don't need them for their supply chain.

In this instance don’t underestimate the importance of the intellectual property. Brand recognition is important, especially in this scenario.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by Bcwcardz

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

So the last remaining piece is the NFL license, right?

Edit: For baseball, they still need to get the MiLB license to prevent Topps from continuing the Bowman, Heritage Minors, and Pro Debut sets.

[progers9119]

Originally Posted by Timsterino

In this instance don’t underestimate the importance of the intellectual property. Brand recognition is important, especially in this scenario.

This is simply where I disagree. If you want the hot rookie card of whoever in 2026, you'll have one choice. Fanatics.

Panini didn't have any heritage when they stepped into the market with their NT, Prizm, Optic, Select etc. The market established love and recognition for those product lines within a short window of time. No one cares/cared when buying their 2019 Zion that Panini didn't produce the 2005 CP3 or 2003 Lebron James.

I wager it won't matter if the product is called Fanatics Series 1 or Fanatics Shiny Stuff.