18/19 Prizm Retail Hauls and Results

[messier2]

I guess I saved my best Panini retail break for my last:

3 Target Mega boxes:

Luka Red Ice
Bagley Red Ice
Hutchinson Red Ice
Huerter Red Ice
Simmons Hyped Green
Kostas Silver RC
Porter Silver RC
Luka Phenoms

The Porter is screaming to be graded...same with the Luka!

Glad I ended on a high note!

[yoyosh]

Originally Posted by bustsomewax

I opened 10 Cello boxes, I got one Luka Base, and 2 Silvers. It could be SPed.

I do not think Luka or any other base card is SP'd. Just luck of the draw.
I have pulled 5 Kyri Thomas silvers and 1 Luka silver. Just luck of the draw.

[bd3d86]

I realize the Luka base is not SP'd, but wow.....I've opened $1350 in retail and pulled 1 Luka base.

That's insane.

[brettmik59]

Originally Posted by bd3d86

I realize the Luka base is not SP'd, but wow.....I've opened $1350 in retail and pulled 1 Luka base.

That's insane.

It goes to show you how much product was produced and opened, when you can spend that much money and not hit 1 of em, and yet there are over 5000 of em out there.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by brettmik59

It goes to show you how much product was produced and opened, when you can spend that much money and not hit 1 of em, and yet there are over 5000 of em out there.

thank goodness! i am hoping to find more hangers at my Target

[byronscott4ever]

Found a full gravity box but saw 20 packs more in another bin...left it all even though I think there might be something in there

[babyfaceposey]

Originally Posted by babyfaceposey

Grabbed 20 rack packs this morning. Will bust after work.

Another horrible break. Only had 1 silver rc and it was a bench warmer. Greens were better, Sexton JJJ. Hit 2 base, Phenoms and Emergent Doncic's.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by babyfaceposey

Another horrible break. Only had 1 silver rc and it was a bench warmer. Greens were better, Sexton JJJ. Hit 2 base, Phenoms and Emergent Doncic's.

rough one indeed Brother!

[siebertb]

A third JJJ silver today. Mo Bamba silver as well. JJJ green in there. Hit only my 2nd Luka base as well. Been getting killed on the Mega Boxes, thought I prefer Wal-Marts to Targets for sure because the Pink look cooler than the Reds. Hanging 3 packs w RWB and loose packs have been by far the best for me thus far. Target and Walmarts keep restocking this stuff like theres no limit.

[Captain1302]

Opened 40 cello packs today and hit (2) Luka Silvers!!!!

[daviswr7]

Was at target tonight and counted 36 cellos, 18 blasters and 8 megas.

This is the third complete restock at my target unless I missed one and it’s the 4th...

[gymratcards]

Originally Posted by arashY

That’s awesome! Thanks for your time and effort and willingness to share

Originally Posted by clipperboy24

Dang that was a great read. Looking at the red and blue parallels I figured the silver production was around 4,000.

Thanks! Glad you enjoyed it!

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

Amazing dude! Congrats! I can't even imagine the amount of hours you've spend watching videos on Youtube to do this lol.

About the analysis, I think everything is on point; but this hobby is weird and for some reason, it treats unnumbered stuff differently than numbered (another example of this is Galactics outselling Lavas in previous years despite having a higher print run). I have no idea what would happen with Silvers down the line.

I'm working on something to get the average value per SKU. I hope you don't mind me using your numbers in order to establish an average of what should be expected per unit.

Way too much time on YouTube for sure! I'm taking a break from it over the holidays. But, afterwards I'll probably do the print run for Revolution. That one isn't nearly the beast Prizm is!

I'm glad you plan on doing something else with the data. That's one of the goals I had when I set up my site to publicly share this type of information. It enables people to evaluate things in a way that is different than they might normally approach collecting cards.

Originally Posted by theLUCKYshow

Thank you for your info. I've been collecting Doncic Silvers and so I may have some bias. You have to understand you're comparing Doncics Silvers to the rarest Topps Chrome year ever. Topps Chrome didnt even have a release in 2009 as they were hastily inserted into Topps Hobby boxes. Even Lebrons Topps Chrome would seem waay overpriced in comparison if you used the same math as you did on Doncics Silver.

The better year to do this calculation is on 2003 Topps Chrome and its refractors IMO. Of course estimating a print run for 2003 Topps Chrome is a much trickier task.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Originally Posted by ballhawkdawk

Legacy matters big. Galactic was always the card in Revolution. Lavas showed up in year three and are only a base parallel. There’s a galactic parallel of every non auto in the set. I have plenty of the Lavas from last year’s release, but wouldn’t expect them to ever outsell the Galactics or even come that close. It just simply won’t ever be “the card” to have in Revolution.

I think the silvers will still hold their value as they’re seen as the true rookie to chase. For me, the /50, /75, /200, etc all get lumped in as these goofy random parallels. A pink pulsar /50 or whatever doesn’t mean a damn thing to me. It’s just some oddball parallel, and ugly to boot.

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

That's kinda my point. Maybe Lava was a bad example, look at Futuras: for the first year of Revolution, they had a slightly higher print run than Galactics (25 vs 20). Yet their prices are nowhere near.

I not only think that Silvers will hold their prices but actually outperform them. That was my point about unnumbered parallels.

Thank you everybody. I appreciate you taking the time to read the post and provide your feedback. I'm glad the analysis prompted some discussion. I agree it's not only possible, but likely, that 2009-10 Topps Chrome is not the best model to use for such an analysis. There are many, many different models we could choose to use and even then we may not find the one that fits what ultimately happens with 2018-19 Prizm. I also agree that it is possible that un-numbered Silver Prizms will retain their place at or near the top of the Prizm heirarchy. I don't have a way yet of determining the probability of it happening. Just like I discuss the probability of career paths in the blog post, there are also different probabilities associated with how how collectors will choose to value the different types of Prizms. It's not 100% guaranteed that lower print run cards will always sell for more than higher print run cards. It's also not 100% guaranteed that Silvers will always sell for more than some or all of the lower print run cards.

One scenario I could imagine that could ultimately hurt Silver Prizms across the board is if Panini printed even more of them in a future release and tarnishes their image. What would be the print run threshold be before they were devalued? 5k, 10k, 50k, 100k, 1 million? I don't know. I know that if we're talking 1987 Topps Baseball production numbers then they're pretty much worth zero. Then ask what is the probability of that threshold print run being a reality some day? The probability may be small, but it still exists. This is just one example, but I'm sure many more scenarios exist.

What I feel the analysis did well is question the status quo and offer up the consideration of multiple possibilities. What if Doncic doesn't become a mega-star and how probable is that? Just how far could his card values fall? If 2009-10 Topps Chrome were ultimately the model that 2018-19 Prizm follows, what could prices look like?

[Texanwatson]

No restocks at my target at all, 1 and done I have had the best luck with cellos, not great, but better than the rest

[clipperboy24]

Opened 1 cello tonight and it was a weird one, but two base silver vets and two base green vets and a Mikal Bridges emergent but no other RCs or RC inserts. I always seem to get at least one or two RCs out of the 3 packs. The RWB packs were all vets too.

I opened a box of fast break as well, now that was fun!

[Texanwatson]

Originally Posted by clipperboy24

Opened 1 cello tonight and it was a weird one, but two base silver vets and two base green vets and a Mikal Bridges emergent but no other RCs or RC inserts. I always seem to get at least one or two RCs out of the 3 packs. The RWB packs were all vets too.

I opened a box of fast break as well, now that was fun!

so you liked fast break alot ???

[clipperboy24]

Originally Posted by Texanwatson

so you liked fast break alot ???

For the price, I think I paid $70, it was awesome. I hit a Bagley rookie prizm auto which helps. But the fast break prizes look really nice and I got 5 numbered prizms in the box. I don’t bust much product but I am thinking of getting more boxes

[GrangerCollectr]

Been seeing them restocked everywhere here in Indiana. I keep skipping all blasters, cellos and megas. Only thing retail I will buy is a full gravity box with 2-3 Purple Pulsars /35 and usually 1-2 Silver rookies and an auto.

[mc1]

Originally Posted by brettmik59

It goes to show you how much product was produced and opened, when you can spend that much money and not hit 1 of em, and yet there are over 5000 of em out there.

Nah, just means collation is always whacked out. I remember in 16-17 I pulled like 6 Dejounte Murray’s and only 1 Simmons. I bet someone got 6 Simmons and 1 Murray in their breaks!

[ballhawkdawk]

Originally Posted by gymratcards

One scenario I could imagine that could ultimately hurt Silver Prizms across the board is if Panini printed even more of them in a future release and tarnishes their image. What would be the print run threshold be before they were devalued? 5k, 10k, 50k, 100k, 1 million? I don't know. I know that if we're talking 1987 Topps Baseball production numbers then they're pretty much worth zero. Then ask what is the probability of that threshold print run being a reality some day? The probability may be small, but it still exists. This is just one example, but I'm sure many more scenarios exist.

This is where my concerns lie with the future of Prizm. Will it still be as sought after if the silver print run is 10,000?? Does new, more SP color replace the silver? I think collectors really enjoy having that base refractor (silver) as the go to card, and if they print the crap out of this stuff, eventually supply overtakes demand. Demand isn’t infinite.

[Captain1302]

No doubt production is up. However I believe there is not more than 5,000 silver produced. I've busted a ton of this stuff. Especially retail.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by GrangerCollectr

Been seeing them restocked everywhere here in Indiana. I keep skipping all blasters, cellos and megas. Only thing retail I will buy is a full gravity box with 2-3 Purple Pulsars /35 and usually 1-2 Silver rookies and an auto.

lucky!

[mwan333]

I'm sure they wont ramp up production again next year, for the zion hype.... lol

[ThoseBackPages]

i hope to find some today

[ballhawkdawk]

Originally Posted by Captain1302

No doubt production is up. However I believe there is not more than 5,000 silver produced. I've busted a ton of this stuff. Especially retail.

For sure. I don’t doubt the data and belief that 5,000 is the print run. But last year it was well under that. So what happens as years go on and the print run goes up? 10,000 silvers next year to feed the Zion hype? I took one trip to target this year and saw more Prizm in that trip than I did in probably 15 Walmart/target stops last year when I was actually looking for the stuff. And this year it was just a random day weeks after release. There’s only so much demand for anything, including Prizm.

[messier2]

I thought I was done, but ran across 1 sealed cello box + 4 blasters.

Did pretty bad (considering the full price I paid).

Carter Silver
Trier Silver
Walker Silver
M. Robinson Silver
T. Brown Silver
Brunson Silver
Bagley RWB
Sexton RWB

The good news is that most are in GREAT condition...very rare to see coming from retail (no crummy edges on the back). So, they are off to BGS soon...otherwise...bleh!