The Official NBA Playoff Thread—-20/21 Edition

[rustywest]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

You're right. Offensively brutal, Mike Scott as your starting C doesn't sound that appealing either.

Shame that Ben Simmons is basically useless offensively

He's not useless, he crashes the offensive glass very well and he can cut effectively too but he really needs a post play-maker to thrive if he is going to balk on mid-range.

Yeah, without Embiid the 76er's are in a world of pain. Who picks up 30 points per night? Anchors the D? Wrecks havoc on opposing teams foul counts? Draws multiple attentions? All what if's at this stage but in that scenario the Hawks would surely be slight favorites. BUT... have to think the 76er's are just being super, super cautious with their MVP.

[Dame]

76ers offensive rating are bottom 10 without Embiid, except they have a far worse head coach. It would be a repeat of the outcome of Knicks/Hawks series.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

Yea, has to be Scott. Doc knows this ... he didn't play them together last night for that very reason. Howard subs in, Simmons subs out and vice versa.

I mean, you wanna throw Thybulle on the court at the same time and just call it a hockey game, that's fine with me. The bottom line is that if Embiid has another bruise that keeps him out the ATL series, what was a coasting Philly win becomes a true dog fight that probably plays out in the 80's and 90's every night.

I wonder why they don't let Ben be the PnR ball handler more often. He's only gotten 4 total possessions in this series.

[rustywest]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

Yea, has to be Scott. Doc knows this ... he didn't play them together last night for that very reason. Howard subs in, Simmons subs out and vice versa.

I mean, you wanna throw Thybulle on the court at the same time and just call it a hockey game, that's fine with me. The bottom line is that if Embiid has another bruise that keeps him out the ATL series, what was a coasting Philly win becomes a true dog fight that probably plays out in the 80's and 90's every night.

It seems wacky, but in the doomsday scenario for Philly, why not start Simmons at 'C'

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I’ll take Hawks over 76ers if no Embiid.

I agree with this.


The Hawks defense has certainly improved over the 2nd half of the season. If Embiid is out, this series just got VERY interesting.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by rustywest

It seems wacky, but in the doomsday scenario for Philly, why not start Simmons at 'C'

I guess you could "start" him at C but I'm not sure it would change much because the lineup would still be the same.

Unless you mean play him in the paint defensively which I don't know if is sustainable for an entire series

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by rustywest

It seems wacky, but in the doomsday scenario for Philly, why not start Simmons at 'C'

To guard Capela?

That seems like a waste of Simmons defensively. You need Simmons on the wings against ATL, and to sacrifice him inside is something Doc would change six minutes into game one IMHO.

Sixers w/o Embiid are what they are. I don't think there's "fixing" it; I think there's simply surviving it.

[rustywest]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

I guess you could "start" him at C but I'm not sure it would change much because the lineup would still be the same.

Unless you mean play him in the paint defensively which I don't know if is sustainable for an entire series

I'm overthinking it, you just start Dwight, but def lineups with Simmons at C during the course of 48 mins are a real alternative.

[jcardstore]

Sixer with no Embiid have to force the ball out of Trae's hands as much as possible and pray one of the "other guys" don't beat them.

If Bogdanovic and Gallinari are going to shoot 50% from 3 it's going to be tough for the Sixers to keep up offensively.

[daeve]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

RJ Barrett is shooting 27% from the floor with no defender within 6 feet

Julius Randle is shooting 14% yes, 14% with no defender within 6 feet.

Over 50% of Julius Randle's shots in this series have either been open (4-6 feet) or wide open (6+ feet) and he's not even shooting 30% from the floor. Almost a 20% drop on wide open shots from the regular season to now. Are the ATL defenders just more scary to look at from a distance?

Real suffocating defense being played by the Hawks . The fact is that all of the Knicks best players (besides Rose) are playing uncharacteristically bad. Doesn't help that the Knicks don't have a true lead ball handler / initiator anyways

good on you for recognizing



got a source for the shooting stats you posted? {i believe you but would like to see what's missing}

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by daeve

good on you for recognizing



got a source for the shooting stats you posted? {i believe you but would like to see what's missing}

So share a single photo without context and not actually addressing the stats. Not surprised.

stats.nba.com

[ballhawkdawk]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Disagree here for a couple reasons

1) Even without Embiid the Sixers have a borderline elite defense. The big area of weakness with no Embiid will obviously be the paint but besides Capela (who isn't a scorer) the Hawks lack attackers who can exploit that weakness. The Wizards won last night because they kept attacking getting to the rim and getting fouled.

2) Realistically the Hawks - Knicks series should be 2-2 but the Knicks blew the 1st game and Julius Randle just decided he forgot how to score. The Hawks have had 1 impressive win to think they have a 50% chance against the best team in the East even without their best player is steep. Randle (who was a fringe MVP candidate this season) has had his 4 worst games of the entire season and the Hawks have only mustered a single convincing win.

Randle went from shooting ~45% to ~27%. Barrett shoots 40% from 3 for the entire season and is down to 27%. The entire Knicks team has had an uncharacteristically bad series considering the season they had and still almost won 2 games.

I'd be happy to be wrong. My concern largely comes from watching the 76ers play as a team and then watching the 76ers play without Embiid or Simmons. Obviously Embiid is the guy, but there's a significant drop off with the 76ers whether they're missing Embiid or Ben or Tobias Harris. I think even Danny Green and Seth Curry are critical to their title chances. It's one of those "the whole is greater than the sum of its parts" type things. As a team they play really well together, but they tend to look out of sorts when they're missing a piece.

That said, I'm optimistic that Embiid will be back sooner than later and was held out of the rest of the game for precautionary reasons. But we shall see.

[BeastMode27]

There are two Hawks teams this year. One with Pierce as coach, and the one with McMillan as coach. The Nate led team has been every bit as good as the 76ers. Even with a ton of injuries, almost all of which are healthy now. Most can keep dismissing this though, and think it’s an easy series with Embiid.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by ballhawkdawk

I'd be happy to be wrong. My concern largely comes from watching the 76ers play as a team and then watching the 76ers play without Embiid or Simmons. Obviously Embiid is the guy, but there's a significant drop off with the 76ers whether they're missing Embiid or Ben or Tobias Harris. I think even Danny Green and Seth Curry are critical to their title chances. It's one of those "the whole is greater than the sum of its parts" type things. As a team they play really well together, but they tend to look out of sorts when they're missing a piece.

That said, I'm optimistic that Embiid will be back sooner than later and was held out of the rest of the game for precautionary reasons. But we shall see.

I figured when he fell it was his tailbone, kinda surprised it was "knee soreness". Feels like a generic designation and he'll miss a game maybe 2.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

I figured when he fell it was his tailbone, kinda surprised it was "knee soreness". Feels like a generic designation and he'll miss a game maybe 2.

You can see the mechanism of the injury on the landing.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

You can see the mechanism of the injury on the landing.

I didn't see it other than the initial and the replay on TV. Looked like he grabbed at his back right away.

If you can see a non contact knee injury on the replay I'd maybe be more worried about his availability

edit: was it the right knee? Did look like he came down funny on it. I guess for the Sixers sake hopefully it's a minor sprain or something.

[daeve]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

So share a single photo without context and not actually addressing the stats. Not surprised.

stats.nba.com

the context was your phrase in bold that the Hawks don't play a lick of suffocating defense - took me all of 30 seconds to prove visually that's false. I'll look at the stats today to see if there's somthing to your claims. Could also be that Randle/Barrett are tired from logging tons of minutes this year and battling with fresh[er] Hawks legs, so that when they do find themselves open they don't have any lift behind their shots.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by daeve

the context was your phrase in bold that the Hawks don't play a lick of suffocating defense - took me all of 30 seconds to prove visually that's false. I'll look at the stats today to see if there's somthing to your claims. Could also be that Randle/Barrett are tired from logging tons of minutes this year and battling with fresh[er] Hawks legs, so that when they do find themselves open they don't have any lift behind their shots.

Sure that could be it. Doesn't change the fact that the Knicks are playing measurably worse than they did in the regular season and it's independent of the Hawks defense.

Is the Hawks defense good, sure. Is it the reason that they're up 3-1, no.

Bottom line is that if the Knicks were making open shots at even close to the rate they were all season this isn't a 3-1 series right now.

The stats are there for anyone to see.

[Siberian13]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Sure that could be it. Doesn't change the fact that the Knicks are playing measurably worse than they did in the regular season and it's independent of the Hawks defense.

Is the Hawks defense good, sure. Is it the reason that they're up 3-1, no.

Bottom line is that if the Knicks were making open shots at even close to the rate they were all season this isn't a 3-1 series right now.

The stats are there for anyone to see.

It’s ok to be wrong sometimes.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1466648

You said it yourself.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

I didn't see it other than the initial and the replay on TV. Looked like he grabbed at his back right away.

If you can see a non contact knee injury on the replay I'd maybe be more worried about his availability

edit: was it the right knee? Did look like he came down funny on it. I guess for the Sixers sake hopefully it's a minor sprain or something.

Correct.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Siberian13

It’s ok to be wrong sometimes.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1466648

You said it yourself.

I'm comfortable being wrong, I'm wrong a lot... way more than I am right but I also take stands, stick behind them and support them with actual analysis and stats. You and most of the rest of the board are just front runners and fence sitters waiting for something to be right or wrong.

Being a fence sitter sucks, it's lame. Do 10 minutes worth of critical thinking, come up with a take supported by some data, and stick with it.

[jswest18]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Disagree here for a couple reasons

1) Even without Embiid the Sixers have a borderline elite defense. The big area of weakness with no Embiid will obviously be the paint but besides Capela (who isn't a scorer) the Hawks lack attackers who can exploit that weakness. The Wizards won last night because they kept attacking getting to the rim and getting fouled.

2) Realistically the Hawks - Knicks series should be 2-2 but the Knicks blew the 1st game and Julius Randle just decided he forgot how to score. The Hawks have had 1 impressive win to think they have a 50% chance against the best team in the East even without their best player is steep. Randle (who was a fringe MVP candidate this season) has had his 4 worst games of the entire season and the Hawks have only mustered a single convincing win.

Randle went from shooting ~45% to ~27%. Barrett shoots 40% from 3 for the entire season and is down to 27%. The entire Knicks team has had an uncharacteristically bad series considering the season they had and still almost won 2 games.

These are wild takes. You don't think Trae is good at attacking the paint? Just because he doesn't have elite finishing skills at the rim doesn't mean he's not a big threat in the paint. PnR would be a huge weakness for the 76ers without Embiid and that's exactly what ATL and Trae thrive on. It's not as if the 76ers have been an Achilles heel for Trae during his career either. Not to mention that even though Bogi isn't elite at attacking the paint he can still create his shot in mid range and at the rim. Same for Hunter and Huerter. The Knicks have tried to rush Trae this series and force the ball out of his hands but he's either beat it or found other ways to get involved. Granted, the Knicks don't have Simmons, so it remains to be seen how Trae responds to that with an elite big defender like Simmons part of the equation if the 76ers do that. But the Hawks have at least 3 other guys other than Trae who can go off for 30 any given night so Philly would have to find some consistent offense somewhere without Embiid if they expect to win a 7 game series.


Even wilder that you think that Hawks only have 1 convincing win and that the series should be 2-2. Not sure how the Knicks blew Game 1.The Hawks had the lead the entire game(outside of a minute and half early in the the 1st when the Knicks were up 5-4) until the 3 min mark in the 3Q when the Knicks tied it then went on to take the lead. The Hawks' biggest lead was 11. The Knicks biggest lead was 7 points which came with 1 min left in the 3rd and the Hawks playing a full bench unit then the Knicks built it back up to 6 point with 9 minutes left in the 4th.

If you want to talk about blowing a game, this series really should be over already if Nate wouldn't have been so stubborn with his rotations in Game 2. A game the Hawks had a double digit lead at half that they let slip away and the full bench unit was terrible down the stretch in the 3rd.

Randle has not shot well and neither has RJ, (they have gotten incredible production from Rose though for what it's worth) but if you've watched the games it should be obvious that Randle has been taken out of his game by the Hawks all series. It's not just that he's played terrible. They've shadowed him with 3 guys at times and have taken away his down hill attack. They've forced him to shoot from outside the paint. Now, yes, he's been hitting most of those shots most of the year but for his career that's been his biggest weakness so it's not unthinkable that during the pressure of the playoffs and with the Hawks forcing the issue that he'd have a cold night or two and it's gotten in his head. He's lost confidence in his shot (passing up some open perimeter shots) and he can't get to the rim to get his points or get his confidence back. That's a big part because of the Hawks D and game plan.

[Siberian13]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

I'm comfortable being wrong, I'm wrong a lot... way more than I am right but I also take stands, stick behind them and support them with actual analysis and stats. You and most of the rest of the board are just front runners and fence sitters waiting for something to be right or wrong.

Being a fence sitter sucks, it's lame. Do 10 minutes worth of critical thinking, come up with a take supported by some data, and stick with it.

We’re all wrong from time to time. The Hawks are playing well since Nate took over. I’m just not sure what you saw in the Knicks to make that thread though. Data and stats aren’t always what they seem either. I can do one second of critical thinking and not come up with what you did with the Knicks. They can still win the series though. Atlanta teams like to choke quite a bit. Being defensive about this is what’s lame. You already owned it so just laugh it off. Doesn’t seem as you’re comfortable if you’re going on the defense is all.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by jswest18

These are wild takes. You don't think Trae is good at attacking the paint? Just because he doesn't have elite finishing skills at the rim doesn't mean he's not a big threat in the paint. PnR would be a huge weakness for the 76ers without Embiid and that's exactly what ATL and Trae thrive on. It's not as if the 76ers have been an Achilles heel for Trae during his career either. Not to mention that even though Bogi isn't elite at attacking the paint he can still create his shot in mid range and at the rim. Same for Hunter and Huerter. The Knicks have tried to rush Trae this series and force the ball out of his hands but he's either beat it or found other ways to get involved. Granted, the Knicks don't have Simmons, so it remains to be seen how Trae responds to that with an elite big defender like Simmons part of the equation if the 76ers do that. But the Hawks have at least 3 other guys other than Trae who can go off for 30 any given night so Philly would have to find some consistent offense somewhere without Embiid if they expect to win a 7 game series.


Even wilder that you think that Hawks only have 1 convincing win and that the series should be 2-2. Not sure how the Knicks blew Game 1.The Hawks had the lead the entire game(outside of a minute and half early in the the 1st when the Knicks were up 5-4) until the 3 min mark in the 3Q when the Knicks tied it then went on to take the lead. The Hawks' biggest lead was 11. The Knicks biggest lead was 7 points which came with 1 min left in the 3rd and the Hawks playing a full bench unit then the Knicks built it back up to 6 point with 9 minutes left in the 4th.

If you want to talk about blowing a game, this series really should be over already if Nate wouldn't have been so stubborn with his rotations in Game 2. A game the Hawks had a double digit lead at half that they let slip away and the full bench unit was terrible down the stretch in the 3rd.

Randle has not shot well and neither has RJ, (they have gotten incredible production from Rose though for what it's worth) but if you've watched the games it should be obvious that Randle has been taken out of his game by the Hawks all series. It's not just that he's played terrible. They've shadowed him with 3 guys at times and have taken away his down hill attack. They've forced him to shoot from outside the paint. Now, yes, he's been hitting most of those shots most of the year but for his career that's been his biggest weakness so it's not unthinkable that during the pressure of the playoffs and with the Hawks forcing the issue that he'd have a cold night or two and it's gotten in his head. He's lost confidence in his shot (passing up some open perimeter shots) and he can't get to the rim to get his points or get his confidence back. That's a big part because of the Hawks D and game plan.

1) I never said Trae wasn't good at attacking the paint. He's fine overall but not great at finishing through contact and doesn't draw playoff fouls at the rim. Westbrook was basically just attacking every other possession in both transition and the half court and drawing a lot of fouls. In the playoffs they aren't really calling the ticky tack fouls that Trae/Harden types get all season.

Like you said though, Trae is going to get his, it's going to come down to the other guys.

2) What you said about Randle taking more shots from the outside simply isn't true. His shot distribution is nearly identical to the regular season. He's getting to the rim more in the playoffs, actually. Now I will agree that the Hawks interior defense is definitely contributing to the lower percentage at the rim. With that being said how do you explain a drop in shooting % of over 30% in both short and long mid range shots when he's open at the exact same rates he was during the regular season.

Could he be missing shots because he's tired from the regular season? Yes Could he be missing shots because he's lost his confidence / playoff pressure got to him? Yes

To say that the Hawks defense is responsible for him dropping 30+ percentage points shooting across the board? Especially when he's shooting 14% from the floor on wide open shots. No

The Knicks absolutely blew game 1. The game was tied with 30 seconds to go and Alec Burks missed the most wide open mid range shot ever which led to a fastbreak and Barrett committing a dumb foul. That 4 point swing basically sealed the game and killed the Knicks momentum.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Siberian13

We’re all wrong from time to time. The Hawks are playing well since Nate took over. I’m just not sure what you saw in the Knicks to make that thread though. Data and stats aren’t always what they seem either. I can do one second of critical thinking and not come up with what you did with the Knicks. They can still win the series though. Atlanta teams like to choke quite a bit. Being defensive about this is what’s lame. You already owned it so just laugh it off. Doesn’t seem as you’re comfortable if you’re going on the defense is all.

but you didn't.

Jswest took the time to come up with a very well thought out response and even though it was very critical of what I said I still answered it.