PANINI FOTL BKB 10am CST

[arod305]

You can also bust a lot of retail on a one box profit wherever those margins fall between $200-350 (assuming you can find it)

[messier2]

My plan is to sell all at a nice profit and bust every Prizm retail I can find!

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by messier2

I’m predicting $500 as the high point for these boxes.

Close to a 0% chance of that happening.

If that were to happen you're looking at holding for YEARS, but you'd have to be the last person holding the boxes to see that money. The reality is even if you could hold out and wait that long to be the last one standing, you could have flipped the $120 profit being offered right now multiple times over and come out well ahead on the initial buy-in over waiting for these boxes to hit $500 when they likely never will.

Everybody is wanting to hold onto these boxes thinking they're going to make bank in the future. Unfortunately when people do that, these things don't become rare...

This happens with almost every "can't miss product" released across any type of platform.

When the majority hold, prices don't rise.

It takes tons of time and a quick craze to sell a Prizm box for more than $400 (check eBay, you've been able to buy them at that price, or less, for years). People just aren't looking to buy in at that price, generally speaking. There may be a few outliers in sales, but if you've got multiples of these boxes to unload for $500 and everybody else is looking to do the same you'll never sell them all.

There are 4 "types" of Prizm boxes to choose from this year:

FOTL
Hobby
Fast Break
Retail


Assuming the only difference between these are the numbered parallels you can pull (and that base and silver are the same throughout), people will opt for the cheapest version.

[Siberian13]

Did anyone recalculate the number of boxes sold to BO members?

[matts_cardz]

Still no reply to my emails and to my tweet, keep it classy panini.....

[yodude91]

When you guys say Prizm Silvers, is that just the regular base refractor ? Is it one of the numbered parallels like blue green whatever colors there are ? Thanks !

[Bruvydsb]

Originally Posted by yodude91

When you guys say Prizm Silvers, is that just the regular base refractor ? Is it one of the numbered parallels like blue green whatever colors there are ? Thanks !

Just base refractor

[COMCMax]

Originally Posted by matts_cardz

Still no reply to my emails and to my tweet, keep it classy panini.....

I can't imagine being a customer service rep at Panini this past week.

[mfisher27]

I would agree that $500 wouldn't be for a couple of years, if ever, but I don't think a quick shot to $400 is out of the question for this. They're already a little over $300 and no one has them in hand. Blowout is buying them for $250. I don't think they're looking to resell for anything less than $300. I'd say somewhere between $325-$400 will be the majority of sales. Certainly depends on how many get busted but this seems like one of the better bonus items for a FOTL release.

The bolded below is true for any release though so I don't think I see the connection with this product. If these don't have golds /10 (which I'm expecting them NOT to), that'll keep the price of the FOTL down a little though. I don't think the cheapest version is a good analogy here either. While the silver is very popular, the gold and hopefully the red /8 will be the big chase cards this year so that eliminates 2 of the 4 structures.

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Close to a 0% chance of that happening.

If that were to happen you're looking at holding for YEARS, but you'd have to be the last person holding the boxes to see that money. The reality is even if you could hold out and wait that long to be the last one standing, you could have flipped the $120 profit being offered right now multiple times over and come out well ahead on the initial buy-in over waiting for these boxes to hit $500 when they likely never will.

Everybody is wanting to hold onto these boxes thinking they're going to make bank in the future. Unfortunately when people do that, these things don't become rare...

This happens with almost every "can't miss product" released across any type of platform.

When the majority hold, prices don't rise.

It takes tons of time and a quick craze to sell a Prizm box for more than $400 (check eBay, you've been able to buy them at that price, or less, for years). People just aren't looking to buy in at that price, generally speaking. There may be a few outliers in sales, but if you've got multiples of these boxes to unload for $500 and everybody else is looking to do the same you'll never sell them all.

There are 4 "types" of Prizm boxes to choose from this year:

FOTL
Hobby
Fast Break
Retail


Assuming the only difference between these are the numbered parallels you can pull (and that base and silver are the same throughout), people will opt for the cheapest version.

[gomiamigo]

Originally Posted by Bruvydsb

Then we are not watching the same thing.

How can you not be impressed with Markkanen, Kouzma & Mitchell (to name just 3).

The impressive part is that doesn't even mention the "top guys", which is what talks to the depth of the class.

Mitchell is a stone gunner who never met a shot he didn't like. A lesser version of Monta Ellis.

Kuzma and Markkanen look pretty legit though.

Ball's prices will just go down every year.

[gomiamigo]

Originally Posted by mfisher27

I would agree that $500 wouldn't be for a couple of years, if ever, but I don't think a quick shot to $400 is out of the question for this. They're already a little over $300 and no one has them in hand. Blowout is buying them for $250. I don't think they're looking to resell for anything less than $300. I'd say somewhere between $325-$400 will be the majority of sales. Certainly depends on how many get busted but this seems like one of the better bonus items for a FOTL release.

The bolded below is true for any release though so I don't think I see the connection with this product. If these don't have golds /10 (which I'm expecting them NOT to), that'll keep the price of the FOTL down a little though. I don't think the cheapest version is a good analogy here either. While the silver is very popular, the gold and hopefully the red /8 will be the big chase cards this year so that eliminates 2 of the 4 structures.

You can bust 3 fast Break boxes and have $80 left over vs paying $500 [lol] for FOTL Prizm? 3 vs 1 at $420?

People are gonna bust the cheaper product. YMMV.

[zinger1038]

Originally Posted by Bruvydsb

Then we are not watching the same thing.

How can you not be impressed with Markkanen, Kouzma & Mitchell (to name just 3).

The impressive part is that doesn't even mention the "top guys", which is what talks to the depth of the class.

We are watching the same thing but we interpret differently. Markkanen has a lot of work to do to get to KP's level, on the court and hobby wise.

Kuzma performs well considering his draft spot, but the dude is taking 20+ shots a game. Is he a surprise? Sure. Is he generational? No. He can score 25+ in 5 games and the impact won't be as much as a Lonzo triple double.

Mitchell is Lillard with lower basketball IQ. Embiid got under his skin easily.

[joem1cha3l]

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

You can bust 3 fast Break boxes and have $80 left over vs paying $500 [lol] for FOTL Prizm? 3 vs 1 at $420?

People are gonna bust the cheaper product. YMMV.

That red shimmer /8 is going to control the market on the FOTL vs the other Prizm options

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by joem1cha3l

That red shimmer /8 is going to control the market on the FOTL vs the other Prizm options

Not necessarily.

I think some may miss why these were so hot and crashed the server, and it wasn't the Red Shimmer /8 (although yes, that does have some appeal).

People wanted this because of the price Panini was offering it at. If they offered it for the $300 it's fetching on eBay, this thread wouldn't be this long and the product would still be in their store.

The appeal of this was the buy-in price, and the Red Shimmer was a bonus. When you take away the driving force in what made FOTL jump (the price), it then becomes another box of Prizm with different parallels.

IF (and it's a big if) Fast Break isn't what Mosaic was and is just regular Prizm with different parralels the money will go to that 9 times out of 10 over FOTL prizm. The Red Shimmer is nice, but it's not "spend $150 more than a hobby box or $250 more than Fasat Break" nice.

[benz35]

Originally Posted by joem1cha3l

That red shimmer /8 is going to control the market on the FOTL vs the other Prizm options

^ this ..... red - lucky color for chinese/ 8 - lucky number for chinese....

[mfisher27]

I don't think you can discredit the reds that much though. I understand the buy in price was a huge factor in these selling but the reds just have to sell well enough to make people switch and buy these boxes instead. I know they won't sell anywhere near the gold /10 but if they sell for half, that should sway people towards FOTL. Not just because of them being in this release but that fact that you are guaranteed 2 per box. Are golds even 1 per case?

Is the price difference too much to make up for a chance at a gold /10 vs. the guaranteed 2 red /8?

Like I said before, I don't see FOTL going for more than $400 but I also could see fast break bumping in price a little bit. Seems the general opinion of the board is that fast break will be the "hobby" release while hobby will be more like the previous jumbos.

What do people think retail will do though? Blasters are still $20, right? Do those go for enough to make it worthwhile to resell? I guess same question for the 3 pack hangers and 24 count retail box. 24 count retail box may be a little different because while you may be able to purchase all 24 from a new box, it more than likely won't be sealed unless you're buying from BO or another distributor/LCS.

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Not necessarily.

I think some may miss why these were so hot and crashed the server, and it wasn't the Red Shimmer /8 (although yes, that does have some appeal).

People wanted this because of the price Panini was offering it at. If they offered it for the $300 it's fetching on eBay, this thread wouldn't be this long and the product would still be in their store.

The appeal of this was the buy-in price, and the Red Shimmer was a bonus. When you take away the driving force in what made FOTL jump (the price), it then becomes another box of Prizm with different parallels.

IF (and it's a big if) Fast Break isn't what Mosaic was and is just regular Prizm with different parralels the money will go to that 9 times out of 10 over FOTL prizm. The Red Shimmer is nice, but it's not "spend $150 more than a hobby box or $250 more than Fasat Break" nice.

[OPCB]

Originally Posted by mfisher27

I don't think you can discredit the reds that much though. I understand the buy in price was a huge factor in these selling but the reds just have to sell well enough to make people switch and buy these boxes instead. I know they won't sell anywhere near the gold /10 but if they sell for half, that should sway people towards FOTL. Not just because of them being in this release but that fact that you are guaranteed 2 per box. Are golds even 1 per case?

Is the price difference too much to make up for a chance at a gold /10 vs. the guaranteed 2 red /8?

Like I said before, I don't see FOTL going for more than $400 but I also could see fast break bumping in price a little bit. Seems the general opinion of the board is that fast break will be the "hobby" release while hobby will be more like the previous jumbos.

What do people think retail will do though? Blasters are still $20, right? Do those go for enough to make it worthwhile to resell? I guess same question for the 3 pack hangers and 24 count retail box. 24 count retail box may be a little different because while you may be able to purchase all 24 from a new box, it more than likely won't be sealed unless you're buying from BO or another distributor/LCS.

I know golds are popular #/10 but why would the red be less or half the market price being #/8? The reds look amazing from the pictures and only available in this release unlike gold being in all the other releases

[daviswr7]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Close to a 0% chance of that happening.

If that were to happen you're looking at holding for YEARS, but you'd have to be the last person holding the boxes to see that money. The reality is even if you could hold out and wait that long to be the last one standing, you could have flipped the $120 profit being offered right now multiple times over and come out well ahead on the initial buy-in over waiting for these boxes to hit $500 when they likely never will.

Everybody is wanting to hold onto these boxes thinking they're going to make bank in the future. Unfortunately when people do that, these things don't become rare...

This happens with almost every "can't miss product" released across any type of platform.

When the majority hold, prices don't rise.

It takes tons of time and a quick craze to sell a Prizm box for more than $400 (check eBay, you've been able to buy them at that price, or less, for years). People just aren't looking to buy in at that price, generally speaking. There may be a few outliers in sales, but if you've got multiples of these boxes to unload for $500 and everybody else is looking to do the same you'll never sell them all.

There are 4 "types" of Prizm boxes to choose from this year:

FOTL
Hobby
Fast Break
Retail


Assuming the only difference between these are the numbered parallels you can pull (and that base and silver are the same throughout), people will opt for the cheapest version.

I agree with alot of what you said. However...

we are one year removed form 2016-17 Jumbo Prizm boxes and they are commanding $600+?? Whose to say this product couldn't do the same. (2) guaranteed /8 Prizm's per box?

I think the lesson we have learned over the last year regarding prizm is that nobody here has ANY idea how this is going to shakeout. Silly money is being thrown around and it might be the new norm.

[nickha2]

Originally Posted by OPCB

I know golds are popular #/10 but why would the red be less or half the market price being #/8? The reds look amazing from the pictures and only available in this release unlike gold being in all the other releases

Depends on if people view these as part of the set or not.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by mfisher27

I don't think you can discredit the reds that much though. I understand the buy in price was a huge factor in these selling but the reds just have to sell well enough to make people switch and buy these boxes instead. I know they won't sell anywhere near the gold /10 but if they sell for half, that should sway people towards FOTL. Not just because of them being in this release but that fact that you are guaranteed 2 per box. Are golds even 1 per case?

Is the price difference too much to make up for a chance at a gold /10 vs. the guaranteed 2 red /8?

Like I said before, I don't see FOTL going for more than $400 but I also could see fast break bumping in price a little bit. Seems the general opinion of the board is that fast break will be the "hobby" release while hobby will be more like the previous jumbos.

What do people think retail will do though? Blasters are still $20, right? Do those go for enough to make it worthwhile to resell? I guess same question for the 3 pack hangers and 24 count retail box. 24 count retail box may be a little different because while you may be able to purchase all 24 from a new box, it more than likely won't be sealed unless you're buying from BO or another distributor/LCS.

How often the gold /10 falls has changed year to year, but in 16/17 they were approximately 3 per case.

I can agree that the Red Shimmer is value, but I just discount how much others think that value is added. It's amazing value at $120, but horrendous value at $300+ IMO. I'm not trying to discredit it at all, I just don't think getting a guaranteed 2 automatically makes this box "$100 more than hobby". We've gone down this road with the White Sparkle Prizm Packs. Those things were going for $50 a piece and that was a guaranteed 3 White Sparkles. Granted that was before the second Prizm spike we've seen this year so who knows how those would be valued now. How many people do you think take a shot at the Red Shimmers /8 if they were a pack of 2 for $100 (the price many think this is valued at over regular Prizm)? You think there are 1200-1600 buyers at that price?

The true value in these boxes as offered by Panini was quite literally the price. You wouldn't have moved 1200 (or 1600 if there's a 400 card checklist, possible more if the inserts are also paralleled) if these were priced at $300. People would have just opted for a regular Hobby box. Obviously not all people, but Panini wouldn't have sold out of this product at $300, so why everybody on this board thinks they'll be able to sell out of their stock at that pricel is beyond me. There just aren't as many buyers at that price as there will be sellers at that price, I promise you. Some of you will be able to, but for the majority BO's offer is probably your best bet and quite possibly the highest offer you'll see.


In regards to retail, until the last week of October you could buy Blasters of 15/16 and 16/17 retail for less than what you could get at the store (assuming eBay bucks promo was on and you had some other type of rebate program running). Retail of 16/17 Prizm has moved well because there is next to no 16/17 Hobby Prizm left for people to buy. We have no idea how much Hobby will be made this year, so it's too early to tell. Generally speaking, flipping retail basketball is a losing proposition if buying it from the store.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by daviswr7

I agree with alot of what you said. However...

we are one year removed form 2016-17 Jumbo Prizm boxes and they are commanding $600+?? Whose to say this product couldn't do the same. (2) guaranteed /8 Prizm's per box?

I think the lesson we have learned over the last year regarding prizm is that nobody here has ANY idea how this is going to shakeout. Silly money is being thrown around and it might be the new norm.

Because 17/18 Prizm will be NOTHING like 16/17 Prizm. Also, only 3 boxes have moved and that price ($600) so we see a very, very, very, very few who have purchased at that price. You can literally count it on your hand.

I don't think anybody realizes just how short-printed 16/17 Prizm was. It was literally 1000-1200 cases. It was the first year that Prizm didn't do Hobby and Jumbo. You see $600 a box for 2 reasons:

1) NOBODY HAS ANY 16/17 PRIZM LEFT
2) BEN SIMMONS BEST RC (SANS NT AND FLAWLESS)

That can't be said for 17/18. In 17/18 we have 4 different Prizm offerings (Hobby, FOTL, Fast Break, and Retail). In 16/17 we had 2 (Hobby and Retail).

17/18 doesn't have a Ben Simmons situation, meaning the top player will have an NT RPA as well as other auto cards. Lonzo and company will have plenty of other top cards to choose from, along with autos.

[daviswr7]

Everything I have been told, as a shop owner, is that production has been cut across the board on Basketball product this year by Panini. This isn't old news. Lots of people are saying that distributors are "sitting" on product to flip on the secondary market, and all that....

But regarding the print run for FOTL, regardless if it is 1200 or 1600, that is an incredibly small print run for such a heavily "demanded" product. There are buyers for this. Maybe not in the next few months at $500, but less then a year away for sure. Small, small print run. just my two cents. -side bar- I'll be cracking 2 and sitting on 2 if all goes well and Panini sorts this out...

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by daviswr7

Everything I have been told, as a shop owner, is that production has been cut across the board on Basketball product this year by Panini. This isn't old news. Lots of people are saying that distributors are "sitting" on product to flip on the secondary market, and all that....

But regarding the print run for FOTL, regardless if it is 1200 or 1600, that is an incredibly small print run for such a heavily "demanded" product. There are buyers for this. Maybe not in the next few months at $500, but less then a year away for sure. Small, small print run. just my two cents. -side bar- I'll be cracking 2 and sitting on 2 if all goes well and Panini sorts this out...

It's is limited, but it's not 16/17 limited.

There are more FOTL boxes on eBay then there are 16/17 Prizm hobby boxes right now, and the product hasn't even shipped yet.

Everybody will hold these thinking it will be the golden goose, so there will be a supply for the forseable future, unlike 16/17 (or any other Prizm year), where very few held.

[RogerGodahell]

The red shimmers look amazing. Beautiful looking cards.

[Bruvydsb]

Anybody else get this email:

Dear Valued Customer,

Thank you for contacting Panini America. I see your 1st Off the Line Order cancelled. If you are still interested I will be giving you a call to reprocess this cancelled order for you. Please advise.