HOF Pace Tracker

[JRX]

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

Half the league? What evidence do you have of that? I had not heard that at all

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He should have just gotten a doctor to diagnose him with adhd and asthma, then he could be on all the drugs the Olympians take.

[Biohazarddfl]

Originally Posted by JRX

He should have just gotten a doctor to diagnose him with adhd and asthma, then he could be on all the drugs the Olympians take.

Olympians can't even do Bonds designer amphetamine with a doctors note.

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[hxcmilkshake]

Originally Posted by JRX

He should have just gotten a doctor to diagnose him with adhd and asthma, then he could be on all the drugs the Olympians take.

No, no, they just all eat contaminated meat. Poor things.

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[Handsome Wes]

.....so I wasn't able to easily find the actual HOF pace tracker, but I think we may need to keep a watch on someone.

Cleveland's closer, Emmanuel Clase, just notched career save #150. His ERA this season is 0.58; his career is 1.71.

I know relievers have freak outlier seasons all the time, but this guy has been unhittable the last few years. He's probably the most underrated player in baseball right now. Definitely the top closer. He'll probably even earn a few Cy Young votes.

Obviously, he still needs another ten years of peak performance, and anyone watching the Mets and Edwin Diaz knows that nothing is guaranteed. Some young stars go on to be Mariano Rivera. Most of the others become Ramon Rivera... Still, Emmanuel Clase seems to be on the right trajectory.

[erock28]

Originally Posted by Handsome Wes

.....so I wasn't able to easily find the actual HOF pace tracker, but I think we may need to keep a watch on someone.

Cleveland's closer, Emmanuel Clase, just notched career save #150. His ERA this season is 0.58; his career is 1.71.

I know relievers have freak outlier seasons all the time, but this guy has been unhittable the last few years. He's probably the most underrated player in baseball right now. Definitely the top closer. He'll probably even earn a few Cy Young votes.

Obviously, he still needs another ten years of peak performance, and anyone watching the Mets and Edwin Diaz knows that nothing is guaranteed. Some young stars go on to be Mariano Rivera. Most of the others become Ramon Rivera... Still, Emmanuel Clase seems to be on the right trajectory.

The pace is definitely there, but you hit the nail on the head regarding ten more years of peak performance. Closers are a fickle bunch. Aroldis Chapman was on pace for 6-8 years: 2.10 ERA, WHIP a touch under 1.00, 272 saves from 2012-2019. Since then his walk rate ballooned, bringing up the rate stats, and he's lost more than a couple of closing jobs.

In addition, Clase had that PED suspension. He'd have to couple another 8-10 years of greatness as well as overcome that obstacle.

[Archangel1775]

Dang, didn't know Clase had a PED suspension.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by Handsome Wes

.....so I wasn't able to easily find the actual HOF pace tracker, but I think we may need to keep a watch on someone.

Cleveland's closer, Emmanuel Clase, just notched career save #150. His ERA this season is 0.58; his career is 1.71.

I know relievers have freak outlier seasons all the time, but this guy has been unhittable the last few years. He's probably the most underrated player in baseball right now. Definitely the top closer. He'll probably even earn a few Cy Young votes.

Obviously, he still needs another ten years of peak performance, and anyone watching the Mets and Edwin Diaz knows that nothing is guaranteed. Some young stars go on to be Mariano Rivera. Most of the others become Ramon Rivera... Still, Emmanuel Clase seems to be on the right trajectory.

Needs about 330 more saves… and the ability to go back in time and never take PEDs.

[jduds]

I do think Kimbrel, Jansen, and Chapman will have interesting cases. Clase is likely doomed by the PED suspension, but is doing all the right things otherwise for a closer trying to make the HOF. Out of Relievers with a WAR over 10, he's got the highest career ERA+ which jumps out.

[no10pin]

Originally Posted by jduds

I do think Kimbrel, Jansen, and Chapman will have interesting cases. Clase is likely doomed by the PED suspension, but is doing all the right things otherwise for a closer trying to make the HOF. Out of Relievers with a WAR over 10, he's got the highest career ERA+ which jumps out.

Barry Bonds is not in the HOF. I think it's safe to say that a reliever is 100% doomed by a PED suspension.

[Jeter1020]

If Ohtani wins his third MVP this season and retired today does he make the hall?


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[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by Jeter1020

If Ohtani wins his third MVP this season and retired today does he make the hall?


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This one is easy. The answer is no, because he doesn't have the requisite 10 years of service time to qualify for the hall.

[Jeter1020]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

This one is easy. The answer is no, because he doesn't have the requisite 10 years of service time to qualify for the hall.

lol this is true. What if he retired three years from now but after this season had a bad slump?


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[Handsome Wes]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

This one is easy. The answer is no, because he doesn't have the requisite 10 years of service time to qualify for the hall.

If some tragedy befell Shohei Ohtani today, the Hall of Fame would adjust its criteria tomorrow.

[Handsome Wes]

Originally Posted by no10pin

Barry Bonds is not in the HOF. I think it's safe to say that a reliever is 100% doomed by a PED suspension.

Thought experiment here - as I started this discussion on Emmanuel Clase.

Say that Clase continues to stay dominant for 10-12 more years, like he's this generation's version of Kenley Jansen. Let's say that he even delivers an iconic moment and closes out Cleveland's first World Series championship since the 1940s.

He continues to test negative for PEDs for the remainder of his career. He's tested multiple times per season and continues to come up clean.

So the only time when he tested positive was after the end of his first season, having only 23 MLB innings to his name. And say the circumstances behind his test were that he had an ignorant / idiot trainer who was trying to help Clase as Clase was rehabbing from an injury, and did this w/out Clase's knowledge.*

*I honestly don't know the circumstances. I didn't even know about his suspension until someone mentioned it on this board. Maybe he owned up to it.

Continuing on, with the idiot trainer scenario: That's not at all far-fetched: Clase is from the Dominican Republic, a country that has represented half of all steroid suspensions, so much so that the league has instituted programs specifically in the D.R. to prevent such idiot trainer scenarios.

Say that's the circumstance:
- tested positive once, at the beginning of his career, b/c he unknowingly took a banned substance
- turned into Billy Wagner
- Had a Mariano run in the postseason
- never tested positive again, and was an anti-doping advocate in his home country

Is one "sin of omission" enough to deny a person Cooperstown?

I can understand w/ someone like a Rafael Palmeiro-situation - he tested positive at the end of his career, and you can start wondering that he doped all up until that point... but when someone clearly has a standout career, and did it cleanly - does one transgression erase all goodwill afterwards?

[hxcmilkshake]

Originally Posted by Handsome Wes

Thought experiment here - as I started this discussion on Emmanuel Clase.



Say that Clase continues to stay dominant for 10-12 more years, like he's this generation's version of Kenley Jansen. Let's say that he even delivers an iconic moment and closes out Cleveland's first World Series championship since the 1940s.



He continues to test negative for PEDs for the remainder of his career. He's tested multiple times per season and continues to come up clean.



So the only time when he tested positive was after the end of his first season, having only 23 MLB innings to his name. And say the circumstances behind his test were that he had an ignorant / idiot trainer who was trying to help Clase as Clase was rehabbing from an injury, and did this w/out Clase's knowledge.*



*I honestly don't know the circumstances. I didn't even know about his suspension until someone mentioned it on this board. Maybe he owned up to it.



Continuing on, with the idiot trainer scenario: That's not at all far-fetched: Clase is from the Dominican Republic, a country that has represented half of all steroid suspensions, so much so that the league has instituted programs specifically in the D.R. to prevent such idiot trainer scenarios.



Say that's the circumstance:

- tested positive once, at the beginning of his career, b/c he unknowingly took a banned substance

- turned into Billy Wagner

- Had a Mariano run in the postseason

- never tested positive again, and was an anti-doping advocate in his home country



Is one "sin of omission" enough to deny a person Cooperstown?



I can understand w/ someone like a Rafael Palmeiro-situation - he tested positive at the end of his career, and you can start wondering that he doped all up until that point... but when someone clearly has a standout career, and did it cleanly - does one transgression erase all goodwill afterwards?

You lost me at Mariano run. Easy now.

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[brewtown107]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

I can’t tell if you’re being serious or not.

It’s anti-competitive.

Wasn't being totally serious.. mainly just poking fun at Stifle because he drags this into every discussion on HOF worthiness when we're talking about players, not executives.

That said, I wasn't being entirely unserious either. The players and their agents are tacitly "colluding" to drive up salaries via free agency. Higher player salaries = higher costs which get passed along to us, the consumers. I can't feel too sorry that this upward cost pressure was suppressed a bit, if only for a while. It was certainly a lot more affordable to take a family to a game in the 80's.

And since small market teams are priced out of bidding for top free agents, it's actually the opposite of anti-competitive to throw cold water on free agent bidding wars. Maybe collusion among owners is a bad thing, but it being anti-competitive is the wrong answer regarding why.

[pezzicle]

Originally Posted by no10pin

Barry Bonds is not in the HOF. I think it's safe to say that a reliever is 100% doomed by a PED suspension.

i think the ONLY thing that can counter this is that Clase will need to pitch another say 10-12 years in order to make a hall case, and if he does that and actually has the numbers, he enters the ballot in like 2040 and who the heck knows what the voters think about PED stuff in 15 years


but with 2024 knowledge? ya he aint making it

[redauto5]

Originally Posted by timber63401

Hayes, Ke'Bryan 10.3 + 0.2 = 10.5

Arraez, Luis 10.9 + -0.1 = 10.8

Hoerner, Nico 12.7 + 0.4 = 13.1

Torres, Gleyber 14.8 + 0.2 = 15

Webb, Logan 17.3 + 0.2 = 17.5

Riley, Austin 17.9 + 0.3 = 18.2

Tucker, Kyle 20 + -0.1 = 19.9

Albies, Ozzie 20.5 + -0.2 = 20.3

Alvarez, Yordan 20.6 + 0 = 20.6

Devers, Rafael 24.2 + 1.6 = 25.8









If I live to be a 1000 Ill never understand why Devers doesn't get more hobby love.

FWAR/BWAR

Ke'Bryan 10.3 + 0.2 = 10.5. (10.1 / 13.4)

Arraez, Luis 10.9 + -0.1 = 10.8 (10.8 / 15.7)

Hoerner, Nico 12.7 + 0.4 = 13.1(15.2/14.8)

Torres, Gleyber 14.8 + 0.2 = 15(15.6/15.8)

Webb, Logan 17.3 + 0.2 = 17.5 (18.8/17.8)

Riley, Austin 17.9 + 0.3 = 18.2. (18.5/20.8)

Tucker, Kyle 20 + -0.1 = 19.9. (21/22.9)

Albies, Ozzie 20.5 + -0.2 = 20.3 (20.2/21.6)

Alvarez, Yordan 20.6 + 0 = 20.6(23.2/23.6)

Devers, Rafael 24.2 + 1.6 = 25.8(25.5/22.5)

Well, Devers ended the season on a down note with shoulder issues. This makes 2 straight seasons of good but not especially exceptional production.

I used to think all of Riley, Tucker, Albies, Alvarez and Devers had an outside shot of the HOF if they could continue accumulating steadily (5-6 WAR) with a few exceptional (7-8 WAR) seasons sprinkled in during their mid to late 20s, and hopefully not fall off a cliff in their early 30s.

Riley and Albies seem out at this point. Yordan is still producing but I worry about how he ages. Devers seems to be off his peak of a few years ago that wasn't much of a peak. Tucker looked like this would be the year he took it to another level, and then he missed more than half the season (but still got his 5ish WAR for the year amazingly).

Tucker seems like he is going to age the best of the top 3 27 year olds and also looks to have the best opportunity of stringing together a couple 7-8 WAR seasons, so he's the only guy in the group I'd say has more than a punchers chance. No probables in this group unfortunately, but it's still more impressive than the totally dumpster fire that is the 28 year old cohort.

I miss this thread and hope OP or the new guy does an in depth update after season end!

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[Archangel1775]

^------- What does all this mean? I'm a simple man and was following the OP's Fangraphs WAR totals. Those numbers look like those players did noting all year. I'm particularly focused on Yordan having a big goose egg....like .300 and 35HR is nothing....is it cause he DH's? So the numbers a a defensive thing?

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

^------- What does all this mean? I'm a simple man and was following the OP's Fangraphs WAR totals. Those numbers look like those players did noting all year. I'm particularly focused on Yordan having a big goose egg....like .300 and 35HR is nothing....is it cause he DH's? So the numbers a a defensive thing?

According to Baseball Reference, Yordan’s WAR for the year is 5.4, with a career total of 23.6. Which keeps him on a borderline HOF pace.

[redauto5]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

^------- What does all this mean? I'm a simple man and was following the OP's Fangraphs WAR totals. Those numbers look like those players did noting all year. I'm particularly focused on Yordan having a big goose egg....like .300 and 35HR is nothing....is it cause he DH's? So the numbers a a defensive thing?

I added current FWAR and BWAR as they are sometimes significantly different. I didn't notate the current increase in 2024, thought it would get too complicated. Yordan is having a good year, a 5.4 BWAR increase over last year. That said, he's oft injured and it doesn't seem he will age well. Devers ended with +3.7 BWAR which ain't gunna cut it. He was going well but lost it over the last few months, which may have everything to do with his shoulders which is scary. Tucker is +4.7 BWAR and has added like 1.5 BWAR since his return from the DL, he didn't skip a beat after the long DL stint. What could've been if he didn't have that shin fracture...could very well have been in the conversation for 2nd-4th place in the MVP race behind Judge, competing with Witt and Soto for runner up.

I'm admittedly a Tucker fan so that fact may give yall some insight into my interest in this age group!

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[corockies]

So, will winning the pitching triple crown and his first Cy Young Award this year be enough for Chris Sale to get into the Hall? Or does he need to keep pitching at an elite level the next 3-4 seasons and get to 3k strikeouts? He's currently at 2414 career Ks.

[redauto5]

Originally Posted by corockies

So, will winning the pitching triple crown and his first Cy Young Award this year be enough for Chris Sale to get into the Hall? Or does he need to keep pitching at an elite level the next 3-4 seasons and get to 3k strikeouts? He's currently at 2414 career Ks.

I don't think if he retires right now hes in but if he muddles through 3 or 4 more decent seasons he makes it. If he has another few seasons resembling this one he goes first ballot. Verlander, Scherzer, Greinke and Kershaw will obviously take precedence unless Sale goes on a serious late 30s heater and grabs some substantial hardware along the way.

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[Jeter1020]

I’m going to ask this here. Ohtani after the season he had. Hall of Fame locked?


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[Biohazarddfl]

Originally Posted by Jeter1020

I’m going to ask this here. Ohtani after the season he had. Hall of Fame locked?


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I believe he is based on his career in Japan and overall impact on the game. He is in on "fame" I also think that I am in the minority on this opinion.

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