18/19 FOTL NT Basketball!

[blinkme323]

Originally Posted by Jpayne7787

What’s the #?

14/20. Just threw it up on the bay.

Originally Posted by The Accountant

worth the gamble. luka going for 20k. better luck next time, sorry

Thanks! Yep, it was still a lot of fun and totally worth the gamble.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by dcarado

I was just pointing out that (assuming Drexler came from FOTL) there are logoman in FOTL. Seems like most so far have had garbage other than the rpa. Small sample size though.

And only a fraction of the rpas are “good” hits.

So imagine getting “bad” non-rpa cards and a “bad” RPA hit (which is the probable outcome).

Boxes that were bought for $750 and could’ve been resold for $2200+ get busted and produce $250-500 of post-fees value. That’s basically $1700+ lost.

If I scored a FOTL box and wanted to try my NT luck, I’d flip the box and buy some group break spots with the profit. That way, you control the risk (e.g., what you spend) and enjoy the thrill of chasing. Since the odds are already against you, might as well make it more fun and of longer duration.

But I understand the high-risk, high-reward mentality.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by blinkme323

Just broke my one box and yep just as predicted, Moritz Wagner /20. The rest of the cards aren’t even worth mentioning.

You are a fortune teller of the highest magnitude.

Should go for a 'decent' amount considering the Lakers faithful. Much better than the almighty Omari Spellman.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by blinkme323

Actually in my fit of anger, I didn’t realize that I also hit a Mitch Richmond Patch 1/1 (not a logoman or anything). Still a gut punch though.

Hit up buckunteer

[Sushiyoshi]

Originally Posted by The Accountant

worth the gamble. luka going for 20k. better luck next time, sorry

is it really worth the gamble?

1/50 chance of hitting Luka but payback is less than 10x what you can sell the box for

[blinkme323]

For those wondering, other hits outside of the Moritz Wagner:

Mitch 1/1 patch
Porter JR triple jersey /99
Drummond jersey /99
Hayward jersey /99
John Collins jersey auto /99
Kenny Smith jersey auto /49
Dan issel auto /99
Zach Collins printing plate

[johnyensmith123]

Originally Posted by Jpayne7787

That Drexler surely is worth 2k no?

I really don't know. If it's not 1/1, like 1/3 or something, I think definitely not 2k based on eBay sales of other logomen.

I assumed it was something like 1.5k for a 1/1. A lot of 1/1 logomen that sold for lesser names were RCs that sold for 1.5k range. Drexler is a good name, but it would depend on what it's numbered out of mostly.

[johnyensmith123]

Originally Posted by blinkme323

For those wondering, other hits outside of the Moritz Wagner:

Mitch 1/1 patch
Porter JR triple jersey /99
Drummond jersey /99
Hayward jersey /99
John Collins jersey auto /99
Kenny Smith jersey auto /49
Dan issel auto /99
Zach Collins printing plate

Basically, I think it's pretty much whether or not you get Luka or Trae FOTL RPA. Unless you hit a logoman of some great player. So if you want to hit the mini lottery, you might decide to go for it, but the odds don't look great.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

And only a fraction of the rpas are “good” hits.

So imagine getting “bad” non-rpa cards and a “bad” RPA hit (which is the probable outcome).

Boxes that were bought for $750 and could’ve been resold for $2200+ get busted and produce $250-500 of post-fees value. That’s basically $1700+ lost.

If I scored a FOTL box and wanted to try my NT luck, I’d flip the box and buy some group break spots with the profit. That way, you control the risk (e.g., what you spend) and enjoy the thrill of chasing. Since the odds are already against you, might as well make it more fun and of longer duration.

But I understand the high-risk, high-reward mentality.

I can't imagine 'most' people buying NT FOTL boxes on the secondary market are individual breakers though. These are group breakers...and there are a ton on Ebay still killing it with ridiculous team prices.


Anyone buying for over 2k and ripping solo truly has a passion for the chase and zero regards for financial compensation.


I mean, weren't Flawless fotl boxes from last year like 3k for one suitcase? Imagine if they do fotl again this year...4.5k? lolwut.

[johnyensmith123]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

I can't imagine 'most' people buying NT FOTL boxes on the secondary market are individual breakers though. These are group breakers...and there are a ton on Ebay still killing it with ridiculous team prices.


Anyone buying for over 2k and ripping solo truly has a passion for the chase and zero regards for financial compensation.


I mean, weren't Flawless fotl boxes from last year like 3k for one suitcase? Imagine if they do fotl again this year...4.5k? lolwut.

I feel like Panini would mark up the price for Flawless too. Something like 2k? Hope not, but could happen.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by johnyensmith123

I feel like Panini would mark up the price for Flawless too. Something like 2k? Hope not, but could happen.

That's what concerns me the most.

This 'premium' price hike on NT was very unexpected and (my guess) is a sign of things to come. They see the secondary market hustle. It's real. And just as easily exploitable.

[blinkme323]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

That's what concerns me the most.

This 'premium' price hike on NT was very unexpected and (my guess) is a sign of things to come. They see the secondary market hustle. It's real. And just as easily exploitable.

Yep, at some time in the near future those two points will converge entirely.

[johnyensmith123]

Originally Posted by Jpayne7787

That Drexler surely is worth 2k no?

Just now looked at the photo of Drexler in the other thread, and it's a 1/1. Man, it's beautiful too. I am far from an expert in logoman autos, but the Drexler seems like it could hit 2k.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by blinkme323

Yep, at some time in the near future those two points will converge entirely.

Get ready for $175 MSRP fotl prizm, bois!

[ldsports]

Gary Trent, 3/20 in my box

bah

[Dnic]

Maybe Panini will get smart and raise the price of FOTL to the point only the people that actually want to open this product will buy it for instance if NT FOTL was let's say $1250 I bet less "flippers" would have bought them

[johnyensmith123]

Originally Posted by Dnic

Maybe Panini will get smart and raise the price of FOTL to the point only the people that actually want to open this product will buy it for instance if NT FOTL was let's say $1250 I bet less "flippers" would have bought them

If they kept the content values the same, ripping it for 1250 would be even worse of a gamble.

And I assume secondary market price for unopened boxes will actually increase if the FOTL price rose by 500.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

I can't imagine 'most' people buying NT FOTL boxes on the secondary market are individual breakers though. These are group breakers...and there are a ton on Ebay still killing it with ridiculous team prices.


Anyone buying for over 2k and ripping solo truly has a passion for the chase and zero regards for financial compensation.


I mean, weren't Flawless fotl boxes from last year like 3k for one suitcase? Imagine if they do fotl again this year...4.5k? lolwut.

Sorry, I was referring to people who purchased the boxes directly from $750. Individual breakers purchasing on the secondary market are just asking for disappointment (on average anyway).

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by Dnic

Maybe Panini will get smart and raise the price of FOTL to the point only the people that actually want to open this product will buy it for instance if NT FOTL was let's say $1250 I bet less "flippers" would have bought them

I think it’d actually be the reverse. There’d be less individual breakers willing to spend $1250 to break the product, thus, more flippers/holders (percentage-wise).

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

Sorry, I was referring to people who purchased the boxes directly from $750. Individual breakers purchasing on the secondary market are just asking for disappointment (on average anyway).

Ah gotcha...we're on the same wavelength on that.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

That's what concerns me the most.

This 'premium' price hike on NT was very unexpected and (my guess) is a sign of things to come. They see the secondary market hustle. It's real. And just as easily exploitable.

They’ll probably only mark-up products that are re-selling super well on the secondary market (because they understand they’re leaving a lot of money on the table). They might even do it annually. But they’ll leave enough meat on the bones to keep consumers happy.

I don’t know if they’ll mark-up Flawless. The re-sale market was unique last year given the 2017-18 draft hype. It’s already got a limited audience (due to high price) and last year’s boxes can be had from eBay/BO from $2300-2450. So if they raise to something like $1750, not as many flippers will buy. Maybe a bunch of group breakers will buy them though, but will they buy ALL of them? Last thing Panini wants to do is be stuck with Flawless boxes.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Ah gotcha...we're on the same wavelength on that.

Hahaha yeah

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

They’ll probably only mark-up products that are re-selling super well on the secondary market (because they understand they’re leaving a lot of money on the table). They might even do it annually. But they’ll leave enough meat on the bones to keep consumers happy.

I don’t know if they’ll mark-up Flawless. The re-sale market was unique last year given the 2017-18 draft hype. It’s already got a limited audience (due to high price) and last year’s boxes can be had from eBay/BO from $2300-2450. So if they raise to something like $1750, not as many flippers will buy. Maybe a bunch of group breakers will buy them though, but will they buy ALL of them? Last thing Panini wants to do is be stuck with Flawless boxes.

Yep, I think there is a threshhold. But you'd have to think Panini has dollar signs in their eyes like Scrooge McDuck with the upcoming Zion hype. I shudder to think what the flagship products will sell for at the msrp and secondary levels. They know they'll only get a gold rush opportunity like this once every 10 years.

[gametime123]

mine has a blue sticker on each side of the shipping box and a red sticker sealing the box.... has anyone opened a blue sticker box yet? Ill be opening later tonight when i can have some peace and quiet after the kids go to bed

[notorioussog]

Ayton/20 on eBay now 6k obo


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk