✹The PERENNIAL Shohei Ohtani Thread✹

[NYRE2PECT]

Sho Time going to RF.

[Trueblue]

Pretty convenient to have an offday pitching and play the outfield instead. Will be a constant adjustment to see what his optimal rest looks like.

[Alwayslefty]

Originally Posted by BigSlim16

And now he's pumping fastballs in at 95 MPH. He must've just be conserving his energy for the second time through the lineup

Looks that way. Smart. RF now. Hopefully can get a knock before night is out.


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[BBases31]

Originally Posted by BigSlim16

And now he's pumping fastballs in at 95 MPH. He must've just be conserving his energy for the second time through the lineup

Throwing 5-7 MPH less than your average and 10 MPH less than top velo to "conserve energy" isn't really a thing, it would be a tighter range. He could be hurt or tired. This start was already pushed back a day because of "fatigue". Fatigue less than 2 months into the season is a very big warning sign for a guy who's had Tommy John and couldn't pitch last season.

Very concerning especially with a few of these big Ohtanis ending in an hour that I wanted to bid on ugh. Even if he's got elbow issues he can still hit but I wouldn't be surprised if he skips at least one start.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by BBases31

Throwing 5-7 MPH less than your average and 10 MPH less than top velo to "conserve energy" isn't really a thing, it would be a tighter range. He could be hurt or tired. This start was already pushed back a day because of "fatigue". Fatigue less than 2 months into the season is a very big warning sign for a guy who's had Tommy John and couldn't pitch last season.

Very concerning especially with a few of these big Ohtanis ending in an hour that I wanted to bid on ugh. Even if he's got elbow issues he can still hit but I wouldn't be surprised if he skips at least one start.

They talked about it. The innings pitched aligns with spring training dead-arm. Just need to wait for next start before making wild guesses.

[BigSlim16]

Originally Posted by BBases31

Throwing 5-7 MPH less than your average and 10 MPH less than top velo to "conserve energy" isn't really a thing, it would be a tighter range. He could be hurt or tired. This start was already pushed back a day because of "fatigue". Fatigue less than 2 months into the season is a very big warning sign for a guy who's had Tommy John and couldn't pitch last season.

Very concerning especially with a few of these big Ohtanis ending in an hour that I wanted to bid on ugh. Even if he's got elbow issues he can still hit but I wouldn't be surprised if he skips at least one start.

Knowing his injury history, do you honestly think the Angels would let him continue to pitch as long as it did if they were that worried about it? I mean Angels' management is dumb, but I don't think they're that dumb

[tblood]

He wouldn’t be standing in right field if he was fatigued or even remotely close to feeling a tinge of pain. It’s odd and I don’t have an explanation for it, but I am really hoping it is nothing more than an oddity.


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[BBases31]

Originally Posted by tblood

He wouldn’t be standing in right field if he was fatigued or even remotely close to feeling a tinge of pain. It’s odd and I don’t have an explanation for it, but I am really hoping it is nothing more than an oddity.

Lol velocity doesn't drop like that unless something is wrong. You can only pray it's run of the mill fatigue and not a bigger issue. Even if it's just fatigue, that's a really bad sign for his durability for the rest of the season. I guarantee he misses his next start.

And that doesn't preclude him staying in the game. He had Tommy John surgery and hit the whole season even though he couldn't throw a pitch.

[okumeister]

The Sho must go on!!
Just arrived today from eBay purchase.

[Chris P]

Originally Posted by okumeister

The Sho must go on!!
Just arrived today from eBay purchase.

Nice..I was watching that auction just went too high for me. But I love it's tied to a specific game in his rookie year

[imbluestreak23]

I did not get to watch. Good start, not great, but good! Also got a base smack. I'll take it!

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

They talked about it. The innings pitched aligns with spring training dead-arm. Just need to wait for next start before making wild guesses.

There won't be a next start for the week but "spring training dead-arm" is not even a remotely normal or common thing and usually when there is this level of velo drop the pitcher is on the DL before the next start. It doesn't mean that he will be. BUT if he's pitching on a rebuilt arm that is this level of fatigued after 7 weeks, I am very skeptical he can make it through the season pitching at anywhere close to a normal load.

Originally Posted by BigSlim16

Knowing his injury history, do you honestly think the Angels would let him continue to pitch as long as it did if they were that worried about it? I mean Angels' management is dumb, but I don't think they're that dumb

The Angels have screwed up more pitchers in the last 5 seasons than half the league combined. Seriously. The amount of season ending or TJ surgeries from their pitchers in the last few seasons is ridiculous. To put it into perspective:

From 2015-2020(5.5 seasons) the Angels have had a total of ZERO starters pitch 500 innings(which would be about 2.7-3 seasons worth of normal workload). They only had TWO starters over 400 innings. And of those two most "durable" starters one was Shoemaker who had a laundry list of injuries with the Angels including season ending surgery and the other is Heaney who's been a regular on the DL since he came up to the majors.

They should've pulled him after the first inning when he was throwing 89 MPH four seamers. Some of the smart baseball guys I follow on twitter were screaming for them to pull him. It doesn't necessarily mean Ohtani was in pain, it could just mean his elbow/shoulder/body wasn't "right enough" to be throwing as normal. These guys are competitors and they try to push through even if things aren't fully right rather than give up.

It may be nothing serious and I sure hope so. But even the best case of serious fatigue is not good for his durability the rest of the season. Maybe it means starting 1 once every 8 days instead of 6? Who knows

[Trueblue]

I understand the concern and it's not unwarranted given the injury history, but everything is guesswork till we have facts - even from so called experts. He was hitting 95 toward the end without overthrowing. I will be concerned if he is in the low 90s again next start.

[banosd]

There are no experts on how to judge two way players. I like him throwing over the plate at 94 rather than all over the place at 100. If he was injured, he wouldn't have played outfield and tried to steal bases. I think the reality might be that he cannot make more than 15-20 starts and DH every day..

[al3xmac10]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

JJ Watt's comment mentioned here....

Thank you for this video!
Another video by MLB today:

https://www.mlb.com/video/breaking-d...=CMS_FIRST&p=0

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

I understand the concern and it's not unwarranted given the injury history, but everything is guesswork till we have facts - even from so called experts. He was hitting 95 toward the end without overthrowing. I will be concerned if he is in the low 90s again next start.

Ohtani said after the game he isn't hurt and was just feeling sluggish. Let's hope!

[majestik101]

Was at the game, left in the 8th inning...

People need to chill. So his velo wasnt there in the earlier innings but overall he had a productive outing and even laid down a Bunt-ani against the shift....

[tblood]

Originally Posted by BBases31

There won't be a next start for the week but "spring training dead-arm" is not even a remotely normal or common thing and usually when there is this level of velo drop the pitcher is on the DL before the next start. It doesn't mean that he will be. BUT if he's pitching on a rebuilt arm that is this level of fatigued after 7 weeks, I am very skeptical he can make it through the season pitching at anywhere close to a normal load.



The Angels have screwed up more pitchers in the last 5 seasons than half the league combined. Seriously. The amount of season ending or TJ surgeries from their pitchers in the last few seasons is ridiculous. To put it into perspective:

From 2015-2020(5.5 seasons) the Angels have had a total of ZERO starters pitch 500 innings(which would be about 2.7-3 seasons worth of normal workload). They only had TWO starters over 400 innings. And of those two most "durable" starters one was Shoemaker who had a laundry list of injuries with the Angels including season ending surgery and the other is Heaney who's been a regular on the DL since he came up to the majors.

They should've pulled him after the first inning when he was throwing 89 MPH four seamers. Some of the smart baseball guys I follow on twitter were screaming for them to pull him. It doesn't necessarily mean Ohtani was in pain, it could just mean his elbow/shoulder/body wasn't "right enough" to be throwing as normal. These guys are competitors and they try to push through even if things aren't fully right rather than give up.

It may be nothing serious and I sure hope so. But even the best case of serious fatigue is not good for his durability the rest of the season. Maybe it means starting 1 once every 8 days instead of 6? Who knows

I saw your post about Ohtani saying he isn’t hurt, but I still wanted to quote this one to make a couple points... Dead arm is a loosely used term to describe a wide range of symptoms. Anywhere from “just not feeling it” to legitimate injury. It doesn’t always relate to fatigue and I think it can actually be a psychological side effect. On the less severe side of the spectrum, it is a very strange sensation. Like your arm is a rebellious teenager that doesn’t want to listen to what your body is trying to tell it to do. It’s hard to know what your arm is doing or where it is going. Decreased control is more common than losing velocity in my experience, BUT the loss in control actually forces the pitcher to sacrifice velocity in order to still hit locations. It might explain why some of his pitches looked like he was trying to place the ball in the catcher’s mitt but who knows?!

To one of the other comments regarding when Ohtani should have been pulled... The first inning was not the first time the coaches saw what Ohtani had tonight. They knew well before that after watching his warmups and talking to him. As bad as you may think the Angels organization is at managing pitchers, I guarantee you their coaches and staff hound the heck out of the pitchers on game day asking them repeatedly how they are feeling. They also talk to the catcher every bit as much as the pitcher because they can offer accurate and unbiased feedback. This isn’t their first rodeo and they have watched Ohtani throw significantly more pitches than any of us have.

Again, I really don’t think he would have been in the outfield after he walked off the mound if he was experiencing serious fatigue. It is mid-May against a non-divisional opponent. No reason to push the issue. The more fatigued your muscles are the higher the chance for serious injury. A single play in the outfield that causes Ohtani to put 110% into a throw can do quite a bit of damage if his arm and body are already overly fatigued. Clearly a simple concept that I have to believe a professional coaching/training staff understands.

Long story short, TLDR... I love couch coaching like a lot of other baseball fans and card enthusiasts, but we don’t have all of the info nor are we talking to the players. We don’t REALLY know until they tell us or something happens.

I hope he’s fine and is able to continue playing at this pace for the rest of the year. Watching him play is the most fun I’ve had watching baseball in a long time.


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[zbaseball21]

Originally Posted by tblood

A single play in the outfield that causes Ohtani to put 110% into a throw can do quite a bit of damage if his arm and body are already overly fatigued. Clearly a simple concept that I have to believe a professional coaching/training staff understands.

My response here isn't to do with anything except about this bit that i've quoted but, the Angels must have told him not to throw 100% in the outfield and don't go crazy after balls, because In his game 8-9 days ago he went into Right Field and just jogged after a ball that dropped in.

He's just keeping his bat in the lineup and isn't going to put too much effort in otherwise playing defense in my opinion that's what it's looked like so far.

[Mister2Bits]

Originally Posted by okumeister

The Sho must go on!!
Just arrived today from eBay purchase.

Picture on the card matches the patch on the card which is authenticated too. Holy smokes what a HUGE pickup. That's just

[base set]

Was just reading the box score. Perhaps a small thing about it has happened already in Ohtani’s time in MLB, but I don’t think so -

Since the DH rule started, has there ever been an AL team that did not have a DH, for all 9 innings?

[mwheeler27]

Originally Posted by Mister2Bits

Picture on the card matches the patch on the card which is authenticated too. Holy smokes what a HUGE pickup. That's just

I agree!

Those Players Weekend patch cards are very nice, rare, and under appreciated at the moment. That won’t likely always be the case.

[al3xmac10]

Originally Posted by tblood

I saw your post about Ohtani saying he isn’t hurt, but I still wanted to quote this one to make a couple points... Dead arm is a loosely used term to describe a wide range of symptoms. Anywhere from “just not feeling it” to legitimate injury. It doesn’t always relate to fatigue and I think it can actually be a psychological side effect. On the less severe side of the spectrum, it is a very strange sensation. Like your arm is a rebellious teenager that doesn’t want to listen to what your body is trying to tell it to do. It’s hard to know what your arm is doing or where it is going. Decreased control is more common than losing velocity in my experience, BUT the loss in control actually forces the pitcher to sacrifice velocity in order to still hit locations. It might explain why some of his pitches looked like he was trying to place the ball in the catcher’s mitt but who knows?!

To one of the other comments regarding when Ohtani should have been pulled... The first inning was not the first time the coaches saw what Ohtani had tonight. They knew well before that after watching his warmups and talking to him. As bad as you may think the Angels organization is at managing pitchers, I guarantee you their coaches and staff hound the heck out of the pitchers on game day asking them repeatedly how they are feeling. They also talk to the catcher every bit as much as the pitcher because they can offer accurate and unbiased feedback. This isn’t their first rodeo and they have watched Ohtani throw significantly more pitches than any of us have.

Again, I really don’t think he would have been in the outfield after he walked off the mound if he was experiencing serious fatigue. It is mid-May against a non-divisional opponent. No reason to push the issue. The more fatigued your muscles are the higher the chance for serious injury. A single play in the outfield that causes Ohtani to put 110% into a throw can do quite a bit of damage if his arm and body are already overly fatigued. Clearly a simple concept that I have to believe a professional coaching/training staff understands.

Long story short, TLDR... I love couch coaching like a lot of other baseball fans and card enthusiasts, but we don’t have all of the info nor are we talking to the players. We don’t REALLY know until they tell us or something happens.

I hope he’s fine and is able to continue playing at this pace for the rest of the year. Watching him play is the most fun I’ve had watching baseball in a long time.


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1) Darvish tweeted that he experienced something like this many times for several years after his TJ surgery.



2) Also, Ohtani responded to the question below in his postgame interview:

Q: トミー・ジョン手術後から、こういう体の重さ、直球がいかないなどを感じる日があったか。
(Since TJ surgery, were there days when you felt your body was sluggish, or your fastball was not there?)

Ohtani:「そうですね。それは一進一退というか、段階を追って80マイルから90マイルに上がる時もそうですし、90マイルから95マイルに上がる時もそうです。強く投げる強度がもちろん高くなれば、張りが出てきたりとか。そういうところだと思うので。去年も試合にそんなに投げているわけではないですし、これからそういう張りがもちろんでてくることもあると思うので、そういう時に臨機応変に対応できたらなと思います」

(Yes. It's something like one step forward, one step back; like going up a flight of stairs, whether it's going from 80mph to 90mph, or from 90mph to 95mph.
The stronger I try to throw, there are times when it tenses up, so this is what I think is happening. I haven't thrown a lot in games last year as well, so I think this (tension) will happen again for sure, so I am just hoping to be able to adjust accordingly.)

**I translated 張り（はり、hari）to "tension", but if okumeister or someone else knows a better word, please share with us, thank you.**

[HarryLime]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Do you feel all of these players are under valued at current prices? I assume you amassed most of these players pre covid at very low prices. If you started collecting after covid or even starting this year would you be happy to pay current prices on all of these players?

I would put it this way: I think all of those players have cards that are undervalued. Obviously, players like Soto, Acuna, and Tatis, who have already completed a full hype/frenzy cycle, have fewer meat left on their bones. But they're also experiencing a dip right now and have a higher ceiling than the other players. If they come roaring back they'll top out higher than Vlad, Ohtani, etc.

I'd say half of my Soto/Acuna collection came from 2018 and ripping packs while the other half came from aggressively buying at the beginning of their explosion (early-covid).

Just about all of my Ohtani came from 2018 packs and I got very lucky. I also bought some toward the end of 2018 because he was dirt cheap. To be honest, a lot of those prices haven't changed much. That's ludicrous to me.

Just about all of my Vlad I bought after the 40 lb photos came out in the offseason. Obviously, all of those prices have gone up and I expect them to reach Tatis level but since he's a year behind Tatis that might not happen until the end of the season.

I bought all of my Tatis during the '19 season and Covid. Again, he's experiencing a dip and we know where he's capable of hitting in the market. If he goes back to 2019 production that ceiling goes higher.

I think the trouble a lot of collectors have is in trying to keep up with the Jones'. Everybody would like a 1st BCA or TCA RC or another of the hobby cornerstones that's capable of hitting thousands of dollars. But if that's not your market (like 95% of collectors) don't sweat it. Think outside the box.

Do your own, original, searches and see what you can find. Be proactive, not reactive. One thing we've learned over the last few years about the hobby that was never the case before was that we all will flock to a "cool" card no matter the pedigree. The problem is that there's so much product that most of us aren't capable of seeing everything until the following year.

Look at the sudden uptick in demand for Ohtani RCs that depict him pitching and hitting. That's a perfectly logical demand cause and yet it took three years before it gained any steam at all.

The amount of Ohtani/Vladdy stuff out there right now that hasn't become "trendy" and is undervalued is considerable. It's just a matter of doing the work and trusting your instincts.

Arthur

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by HarryLime

I would put it this way: I think all of those players have cards that are undervalued. Obviously, players like Soto, Acuna, and Tatis, who have already completed a full hype/frenzy cycle, have fewer meat left on their bones. But they're also experiencing a dip right now and have a higher ceiling than the other players. If they come roaring back they'll top out higher than Vlad, Ohtani, etc.

I'd say half of my Soto/Acuna collection came from 2018 and ripping packs while the other half came from aggressively buying at the beginning of their explosion (early-covid).

Just about all of my Ohtani came from 2018 packs and I got very lucky. I also bought some toward the end of 2018 because he was dirt cheap. To be honest, a lot of those prices haven't changed much. That's ludicrous to me.

Just about all of my Vlad I bought after the 40 lb photos came out in the offseason. Obviously, all of those prices have gone up and I expect them to reach Tatis level but since he's a year behind Tatis that might not happen until the end of the season.

I bought all of my Tatis during the '19 season and Covid. Again, he's experiencing a dip and we know where he's capable of hitting in the market. If he goes back to 2019 production that ceiling goes higher.

I think the trouble a lot of collectors have is in trying to keep up with the Jones'. Everybody would like a 1st BCA or TCA RC or another of the hobby cornerstones that's capable of hitting thousands of dollars. But if that's not your market (like 95% of collectors) don't sweat it. Think outside the box.

Do your own, original, searches and see what you can find. Be proactive, not reactive. One thing we've learned over the last few years about the hobby that was never the case before was that we all will flock to a "cool" card no matter the pedigree. The problem is that there's so much product that most of us aren't capable of seeing everything until the following year.

Look at the sudden uptick in demand for Ohtani RCs that depict him pitching and hitting. That's a perfectly logical demand cause and yet it took three years before it gained any steam at all.

The amount of Ohtani/Vladdy stuff out there right now that hasn't become "trendy" and is undervalued is considerable. It's just a matter of doing the work and trusting your instincts.

Arthur

I totally agree with your sentiment. The big 3 Tatis, Acuna, Soto have the most long term potential for those that want to hold long term. Ohtani is so unique and its easy to see him getting into the HOF if he can produce for the next 8-10 years at his current level (60+ WAR). Vladdy is an amazing hitter, but lots can go wrong with 1b/DH guys and basically they have to put up 15+ years of accounting statistics to have a chance at the HOF. And of course every guys is one injury away from having near zero hobby value (not sure what Prince Fielder cards go for but he had a great stretch there for awhile).

I just think it is a lot easier to be optimistic in today's market when you either bought at pre-covid prices or bought at the bottom of the market (off season Vladdy prices). I got lucky that I bought most of my Tatis right as he was blowing up last year, but most of the guys I collect I have bought at recent fair market prices or worse bought the peak.
https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1440607

Good news I have held onto most of my cards including my Ohtani's. Following him this year is amazing. He is great for the hobby and easy to root for (as is Tatis). As you said I try to buy raw lots at market or below market rates and hope for the best. I also know to stay in my lane and stick to low end raw cards (with an occasional splurging of a PSA10 or higher end card). I don't open wax or do group breaks and mainly stick to buying singles of the players I collect (for enjoyment/hobby). I am never trying to buy BC 1st autos, TC autos, TC sapphire, or sp/ssp trendy cards (mainly due to being risk averse).