2016 bowman pricing predictions

[bighunt172]

I bet vlad jr base chrome will sell good. Doesn't have anything at all right ?

[Jaypers]

Originally Posted by bighunt172

I bet vlad jr base chrome will sell good. Doesn't have anything at all right ?

Besides an Elite Auto from last year.

[bighunt172]

Originally Posted by Jaypers

Besides an Elite Auto from last year.

So his base should have decent value

[brentandbecca]

Originally Posted by bighunt172

So his base should have decent value

should

[bighunt172]

Thanks for your insight

[brentandbecca]

I am getting H & J odds, but am heading to an appt.
Only thing I have heard is production is slightly down, but base autos are easier on odds (like prospect base 1:9 jumbo vs 1:12 last year) and color is slightly tougher

[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by brentandbecca

I am getting H & J odds, but am heading to an appt.
Only thing I have heard is production is slightly down, but base autos are easier on odds (like prospect base 1:9 jumbo vs 1:12 last year) and color is slightly tougher

Eww slightly tougher color....means production was not dropped as much as expected.

[bighunt172]

Originally Posted by dbacksbaseball

eww slightly tougher color....mean production was not dropped as much as expected.

this isnt a good start to my day lol

[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by bighunt172

this isnt a good start to my day lol

A little cold water for everyone. This still doesnt mean it will be bad though....

This mixed with finest is just a big gut punch day from Topps.

[bighunt172]

Originally Posted by dbacksbaseball

a little cold water for everyone. This still doesnt mean it will be bad though....

This mixed with finest is just a big gut punch day from topps.

for sure, we will see once he post the pack odds then chapman can go to work lol

[syriannightmare]

Here are hobby pack odds, too lazy to type them...

[IMG][/IMG]

[phil]

Orange non-auto prospect 1:165 = 2148 Hobby cases

[brentandbecca]

Originally Posted by syriannightmare

Here are hobby pack odds, too lazy to type them...

[IMG][/IMG]

How you get my pic lol?

[brentandbecca]

You have my jumbo pic too? I can't post from phone

[bighunt172]

22 percent cut in production this is good

[zac949]

HOBBY/JUMBO

Base Parallels:
Silver 1:43 / 1:14
Purple 1:86 / 1:27
Blue 1:143 / 1:45
Gold 1:429 / 1:135
Orange 1:165
Red 1:4,300 / 1:1,343
Metallic 1:21,816 / 1:6,739
Printing Plate 1:5,355 / 1:1,676
Prospect Parallels
Silver 1:43 / 1:14
Purple 1:86 / 1:27
Blue 1:143 / 1:45
Gold 1:429 / 1:135
Orange 1:165
Red 1:4,300 / 1:1,343
Metallic 1:21,816 / 1:6,739
Printing Plate 1:5,355 / 1:553
Chrome Prospect Parallels
Refractor 1:33 / 1:9
Purple Refractor 1:66 / 1:20
Blue Refractor 1:110 / 1:34
Green Shimmer 1:167 / 1:51
Gold Refractor 1:329 / 1:100
Orange Refractor 1:165
Orange Shimmer 1:658 / 1:199
Red Refractor 1:3,291 / 1:996
Superfractor 1:9,656 / 1:3,863
Printing Plate 1:4,119 / 1:1,243
Bowman Scout’s Top 100
Insert 1:8 / 1:3
Gold 1:498 / 1:150
Orange 1:247
Superfractor 1:24,534 / 1:7,541
Autograph Gold 1:3,386 / 1:565
Autograph Superfractor 1:117,802 / 1:39,591
Sophomore Standouts
Insert 1:8 / 1:3
Blue 1:1,097 / 1:332
Orange 1:1,646
Red 1:32,723 / 1:9,898
Metallic 1:147,253 / 1:52,787
Autograph 1:2,561 / 1:428
Autograph Gold 1:5,078 / 1:847
Autograph Red 1:49,085 / 1:8,551
Autograph Superfractor 1:294,505 / 1:39,591
Turn Two
Insert 1:24 / 1:8
Green 1:516 / 1:187
Gold 1:1,049 / 1:365
Orange 1:823
Red 1:10,519 / 1:3,641
Superfractor 1:49,085 / 1:18,631
Autograph Gold 1:3,386 / 1:565
Autograph Superfractor 1:147,253 / 1:28,793
International Ink
Insert 1:12 / 1:4
Blue 1:1,824 / 1:498
Orange 1:2740
Red 1:53,546 / 1:15,082
Metallic 1:294,505 / 1:79,181
Autograph Gold 1:3,202 / 1:536
Autograph Metallic 1:294,504 / 1:52,787
Rookie Recollection
Insert 1:24 / 1:8
Gold 1:7,097 / 1:2,140
Orange 1:3527
Red 1:73,627 / 1:21,115
Superfractor 1:294,505 / 1:105,573
Autograph 1:2,414 / 1:403
Autograph Gold 1:7,272 / 1:1,209
Autograph Red 1:73,626 / 1:12,182
Autograph Superfractor 1:294,505 / 1:63,344
Family Tree
Insert 1:24 / 1:8
Blue 1:2,347 / 1:710
Orange 1:3,527
Red 1:73,626 / 1:21,115
Metallic 1:294,505 / 1:105,573
Autograph 1:20,311 / 1:4,223
Autograph Red 1:98,169 / 1:21,115
Autograph Superfractor 1:589,009 / 1:105,573
Chrome Rookie Autograph
Base 1:339 / 1:57
Refractor 1:509 / 1:85
Blue Refractor 1:1,693 / 1:283
Gold Refractor 1:5,078 / 1:847
Orange Refractor 1:2,414
Red Refractor 1:49,085 / 1:8,500
Superfractor 1:294,505 / 1:39,591
Printing Plate 1:65,446 / 1:10,558
Chrome Prospect Autograph
Base 1:56 / 1:9
Refractor 1:145 / 1:25
Purple Refractor 1:290 / 1:49
Blue Refractor 1:483 / 1:81
Gold Refractor 1:1,448 / 1:242
Orange Refractor 1:687
Orange Shimmer 1:7,272 / 1:1,209
Red Shimmer 1:7,272 / 1:1,209
Red Refractor 1:14,337 / 1:2,425
Superfractor 1:73,627 / 1:12,182
Printing Plate 1:17,849 / 1:3,017
Bowman Ultimate Autograph Book 1:294,505 / 1:39,590
All-American Game Autograph 1:635 / 1:106
Lucky Redemption Autograph 1:25,609 / 1:4,281

[notoriousrmb]

Interesting - looks like retail plastic wrapping. No foil this year?

[imbluestreak23]

My thoughts on the auto checklist: It is still very top heavy. Several of the mid tier guys are high ceiling/low floor types. Here's my breakdown along with a guestimation of where base autos settle a few weeks post launch.

A:
-Alex Bregman ($75, should be $40): power is overinflated thus far given track record and scouting reports. Whether it's real or not, time will tell. But I fear people are overestimating potential sell value based on his hot start.
-Anderson Espinoza ($60, should be $30-$35): Honestly can't remember Urias levels in 2014, but Kershaw was $25-$30 in 2006.
-Kenta Maeda ($125, should be $60): Dictated by international market
-Victor Robles ($50, should be $25): The Fernando Martinez of the product price wise, but I believe this OF is the real deal. Regardless, he should be priced as Andrew McCutchen was in 2005.
-Yoan Moncada ($125, should be $65): I can't think of another Bowman Chrome prospect to crack $100 without possessing long ball power. Corey Seager immediately comes to mind as a rare exception, but history says that's unsustainable. Not knocking Moncada as I believe he's the concensus #1 prospect, but certainly not the super prospect w/ long ball power we are accustomed to.

B:
-Brendan Rodgers ($25, Repeat)
-Dansby Swanson ($25, Repeat)
-Trey Mancini ($15-$20): Older, but like what I'm seeing
-Jhailyn Ortiz ($15): top international signees not in full season ball rarely headline Bowman products. If this were Viciedo or Angel Villalona, it would be different. Very difficult to project.
-Domingo Acevedo ($15): Is a B- with command issues. Potentially bullpen bound decreases value, but is a sleeper buy if you can snag base autos for single digits / command continues to improve.
-Wilson Contreras ($15): breakout average thus far capping off a nice breakout 2015, need to see more before I'm buying given track record prior to 2015.

C: Mix of younger upside / older potential big league callups. Theres only 2-3 names on this list that intrigue me. The rest are meh.

Anthony Alford ($10): Jays, #1 prospect, prospectors will fall in love with athleticism, but can he hit?
Ariel Jurado ($6-$10)
Francis Martes ($8-$12)
Jharel Cotton ($6-$10)
Juan Yepez ($5-$8)
Lucius Fox ($8-$12): Top international talent looks overmatched thus far, but will certainly sell
Mauricio Dubon ($10-$15): like what I'm seeing thus far, again, good buy in single digits.
Nate Smith ($5-$8)
Samuel Coonrod ($5-$8)
Stone Garrett ($5-$8)
Tyler O'Neill ($8-$12)

D:
Brady Lail ($1-$3)
Drew Jackson ($1-$5)
Kevin Kramer ($1-$5)
Mark Zagunis ($1-$3)
Paul DeJong ($1-$5)
Rafael Bautista ($1-$5)

E: CRINGE PULLS…
Anfernee Seymour
Daz Cameron ($10-$15): I'm sorry, I just can't buy prospects that don't hit. Dont' care where he's ranked by BA, if he can't hit, he's falling out of the top 100.
David Denson
Franklyn Kilome
Iolana Akau
Ruddy Giron
Sal Romano

[bighunt172]

I really appreciate your post blue The one I disagree with is Swanson. I can see braves fans wanting this card more than his first bowman. That alone will spike prices. I don't think they will sell crazy. But why wouldn't they sell for what his bow and best are selling for ?

[bighunt172]

And I 100 percent agree in daz. Can't hit. No interest here. Moncada is still young and can produce power. He has power he just hits a lot of bullets. Doesn't get the ball in the air yet

[bighunt172]

And where would you see them selling first week. Just top tier

[zacsoccer6]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

My thoughts on the auto checklist: It is still very top heavy. Several of the mid tier guys are high ceiling/low floor types. Here's my breakdown along with a guestimation of where base autos settle a few weeks post launch.

A:
-Alex Bregman ($75, should be $40): power is overinflated thus far given track record and scouting reports. Whether it's real or not, time will tell. But I fear people are overestimating potential sell value based on his hot start.
-Anderson Espinoza ($60, should be $30-$35): Honestly can't remember Urias levels in 2014, but Kershaw was $25-$30 in 2006.
-Kenta Maeda ($125, should be $60): Dictated by international market
-Victor Robles ($50, should be $25): The Fernando Martinez of the product price wise, but I believe this OF is the real deal. Regardless, he should be priced as Andrew McCutchen was in 2005.
-Yoan Moncada ($125, should be $65): I can't think of another Bowman Chrome prospect to crack $100 without possessing long ball power. Corey Seager immediately comes to mind as a rare exception, but history says that's unsustainable. Not knocking Moncada as I believe he's the concensus #1 prospect, but certainly not the super prospect w/ long ball power we are accustomed to.

B:
-Brendan Rodgers ($25, Repeat)
-Dansby Swanson ($25, Repeat)
-Trey Mancini ($15-$20): Older, but like what I'm seeing
-Jhailyn Ortiz ($15): top international signees not in full season ball rarely headline Bowman products. If this were Viciedo or Angel Villalona, it would be different. Very difficult to project.
-Domingo Acevedo ($15): Is a B- with command issues. Potentially bullpen bound decreases value, but is a sleeper buy if you can snag base autos for single digits / command continues to improve.
-Wilson Contreras ($15): breakout average thus far capping off a nice breakout 2015, need to see more before I'm buying given track record prior to 2015.

C: Mix of younger upside / older potential big league callups. Theres only 2-3 names on this list that intrigue me. The rest are meh.

Anthony Alford ($10): Jays, #1 prospect, prospectors will fall in love with athleticism, but can he hit?
Ariel Jurado ($6-$10)
Francis Martes ($8-$12)
Jharel Cotton ($6-$10)
Juan Yepez ($5-$8)
Lucius Fox ($8-$12): Top international talent looks overmatched thus far, but will certainly sell
Mauricio Dubon ($10-$15): like what I'm seeing thus far, again, good buy in single digits.
Nate Smith ($5-$8)
Samuel Coonrod ($5-$8)
Stone Garrett ($5-$8)
Tyler O'Neill ($8-$12)

D:
Brady Lail ($1-$3)
Drew Jackson ($1-$5)
Kevin Kramer ($1-$5)
Mark Zagunis ($1-$3)
Paul DeJong ($1-$5)
Rafael Bautista ($1-$5)

E: CRINGE PULLS…
Anfernee Seymour
Daz Cameron ($10-$15): I'm sorry, I just can't buy prospects that don't hit. Dont' care where he's ranked by BA, if he can't hit, he's falling out of the top 100.
David Denson
Franklyn Kilome
Iolana Akau
Ruddy Giron
Sal Romano

I don't think I would cringe pulling Daz Cameron, however it would be on ebay before I finished opening my box. Moncada is doing some great stuff in High A and before his partial season last year hadn't played baseball in 2 years. 13 steals in 14 games while almost a .500 OBP.

[phil]

Originally Posted by bighunt172

Moncada is still young and can produce power. He has power he just hits a lot of bullets. Doesn't get the ball in the air yet

Love that his walk/K ratio is 14/12 so far this year. Hopefully sign of maturity there

[dasiegel]

Imblue, I love the analysis but if you are right about ur values then we should all run for the hills. If moncada settled at $125 and bregman at $75 and everyone else under $60 and by far I'd be shocked. Moncada does have long ball potential and speed, bregmans power is real and no way maeda is near $60 in the near future. I think you are also underestimating young guys like Robles who could evolve into top top prospects.

[dasiegel]

And Swanson chrome autos in a new uniform will be well over $25