The Price Index Carnage Is Real

[jdandns]

Originally Posted by PumpnDumpling

Roe v wade has all the abortionists up in arms

I had a brief exchange with a beached whale while out and about the other day when i happened upon a protest and it told me, i quote " they wont let me kill my baby, im gunna kill u instead"

Its going to be open season for the "clecter" demographic

Sir, do we get to win this time?

Originally Posted by delangley1977

Civil war? Lol. A bit dramatic, no?

He's lived in a world of death. He tried to come home, but never really arrived. A part of his mind and soul got lost along the way, but his heart was still here where he was born, where he would defend to the end the only family he's ever known, the only home he's ever known. All the ones he's loved are now ghosts. But he will fight to keep their memory alive forever.

[letsgocapitals]

July 28th will let us all know the extent of the carnage.

[towerymt]

Originally Posted by Chrominator

I guess I missed that. Got any cliff notes?

From a quick glance, I see that sportsyard could be the antagonist but not sure, and it involves reading way too much of you know who in that thread for me.

v v v https://www.blowoutforums.com/showth...0#post18308840 v v v

Originally Posted by sportsyard

Lets not let Khaldragos take on this twist things. Anyone in the thread can see that's what he does. He's been doing it for years to deflect. He's a nuisance and cries the blues only when it serves his own agenda.

I agree, the person hurt was the seller, I did selfishly use that card to prove a point, which I believe has uncovered a massive deception and fraud. The right thing to do is follow up and see if that seller incurred a loss and cover the difference, which I would be willing to do given this data point has allowed me to develop a serious opportunity to unravel this deception.

I hoped that Card Ladder was at least "vetting" all Goldin and PWCC Premier auctions, so that the higher end cards weren't creating a fake bubble. That's where massive losses are happening. My data point proved they arent, which is why it had to be a premier item.

Ironically, I had high dollar items I consigned go unpaid for from the same auction.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

Does it? I think it just needs to represent what breakers can get for it. Breakers have permanently thrown off wax prices because they’re playing a different field than individual collectors. They can afford to drive up prices, regardless of what the singles sell for, because they spread their costs over a large group of addicts, I mean, um, collectors.

If the premium is too high, eventually the gamblers get fed up and/or run out of money. Keep in mind through April, 2021 the price of wax was rising quickly, but so too was the price of singles. Since then every segment of the singles market has been crushed, but wax has held strong or continued up.

Group breaking has definitely changed the game and the gamblers premium is going to be higher than it was say 10 years ago, but the current markup is just not sustainable in the long run.

Will you ever get another box of TC at a reasonable price? I think the answer to that is maybe. It depends on how aggressive Topps is with print run.

Originally Posted by pewe

I wonder how steep the supply / demand curve is. At the beginning of COVID fuel demand dropped ~20%, warehousing reached saturation, and sent oil (for delivery) prices negative. How close to that scenario are we see 20% less demand, and the card companies are forced to trash product???


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I would change card companies to distributors, but I think this is the jist of it. Somewhere down the road there is going to be more product printed than the market can handle. At that point, prices will drop. Then if you combine that with a drop in demand (desire might be a better word), it can really plunge.

There might be an intermediate stage where product sits in the warehouse for awhile. Eventually that warehouse is going to fill up and sellers will be forced to sell, either to clear space for new product or to raise cash for new product. I don't really know where we are in that cycle, but I'll say this; I would not want to be holding a large stash of 2022 TC on preorder right now.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by DynaEtch

Here is what is happening in Marvel cards: since around March/April this year there has been a softening in prices. PMGs in particular are down, particularly the ones that were run-up into the ten(s) of thousand $ range. But prices in general are much higher than they were at pre-pandemic level, and I don’t see that changing all that much. Perhaps some further softening, but I don’t see cards going back to those levels. Even now I see plenty of cards/wax that are steady or increasing. A lot of it is what card you are specifically talking about, so a price index in Marvel cards wouldn’t even be that productive (I could see it reflecting the downturn in PMGs, and not so much the more steady/healthy niches in the market, creating a false picture of complete gloom)

Thank you.

This is really interesting that Marvel has basically followed the same cycle as baseball. I wouldn't think there would be a seasonal cycle for Marvel cards, so that's a pretty good indicator of the macro level for cards.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Ianhatcher

This was bound to happen when PSA upped their grading cost for Value to $25 and ultimately turned off the lower tiers effectively ending collector's ability to grade and resell and put that money back into the market.

They and by they I mean card manufacturers, grading companies, resellers all of them ate away at the profits of their very customers and this is the result.

The economy and inflation just expediated the process really.

The actual thing that is affecting it is the increased supply of graded cards hitting the market, crushing resale prices.

In April, 2021 when PSA raised the price to $25, it still wasn't nearly enough. They were taking in way more cards than they churn out, to the point that we've had a 14 month (and counting) backlog. They have increased capacity to meet April 2021 demand, but the price for the end product is down 75% for the more common stuff.

Since most of the cards that were worth it back then are not worth it now, the price of grading is going to collapse in the very near future. That will help a little, but the bottom line is we live in a new world that looks a lot more like the pre 2020 world than the 2020-2021 world.

[rwperu34]

re: The Card Ladder Thread

A few things I do to to mitigate non paid sales;

1) I use multiple recent sales. This lessens the impact of outliers, whether paid for or not. FWIW, in my experience normal sales go unpaid just as often as high sales. I've started paying attention to the median as well. Another good way to see what's an outlier. In general I think looking at the last sale is a quick, but not very effective way to gauge price. There is simply too much variance, even on a day to day basis.

2) I check Terapeak. I'm not sure how good they are at picking up non-payers, but some items don't show so I know they're catching some. I don't use Terapeak for auctions though. I just assume the ending price is the price. eBay auctions go for less than BIN anyways and in most cases I would assume 2nd place would have paid had they won.

One of the reasons I chose BCA as my input is they are rare enough to be expensive enough that if there is combined shipping it distorts the price less and they are common enough that there are enough sales to take multiple sales over any given time period. That and prospects. Can't have an RC if you're in the minors.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

If the premium is too high, eventually the gamblers get fed up and/or run out of money. Keep in mind through April, 2021 the price of wax was rising quickly, but so too was the price of singles. Since then every segment of the singles market has been crushed, but wax has held strong or continued up.

Group breaking has definitely changed the game and the gamblers premium is going to be higher than it was say 10 years ago, but the current markup is just not sustainable in the long run.

Will you ever get another box of TC at a reasonable price? I think the answer to that is maybe. It depends on how aggressive Topps is with print run.



I would change card companies to distributors, but I think this is the jist of it. Somewhere down the road there is going to be more product printed than the market can handle. At that point, prices will drop. Then if you combine that with a drop in demand (desire might be a better word), it can really plunge.

There might be an intermediate stage where product sits in the warehouse for awhile. Eventually that warehouse is going to fill up and sellers will be forced to sell, either to clear space for new product or to raise cash for new product. I don't really know where we are in that cycle, but I'll say this; I would not want to be holding a large stash of 2022 TC on preorder right now.

I argue this is already the case with prices on the resale market steadily dropping over the past year. The impact on unopened product is a delayed effect due to distributors and flippers controlling its supply and being more resistant to market change. But eventually the market will decide the value of unopened product.

The unique thing about product supply in the trading card hobby is that an increase in overall supply does not translate into an increase in overall value -- it is a dilution of value. We saw this during the junk era. Big hits like superfractors, /5 red refractors, /10 autos don't increase in number when overall supply increases -- only junk base, common parallels, common inserts and low value autographs.

So with an increase in supply, value only becomes harder to obtain. This is especially true for box breaks which entices gamblers with a chance of winning a big hit or a reasonable chance of making a chunk of money back.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Thank you.

This is really interesting that Marvel has basically followed the same cycle as baseball. I wouldn't think there would be a seasonal cycle for Marvel cards, so that's a pretty good indicator of the macro level for cards.

Unlike baseball cards, the high-end Marvel card market is relatively new and there is uncertainty as to its level of popularity and sustainability.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

re: The Card Ladder Thread

A few things I do to to mitigate non paid sales;

1) I use multiple recent sales. This lessens the impact of outliers, whether paid for or not. FWIW, in my experience normal sales go unpaid just as often as high sales. I've started paying attention to the median as well. Another good way to see what's an outlier. In general I think looking at the last sale is a quick, but not very effective way to gauge price. There is simply too much variance, even on a day to day basis.

2) I check Terapeak. I'm not sure how good they are at picking up non-payers, but some items don't show so I know they're catching some. I don't use Terapeak for auctions though. I just assume the ending price is the price. eBay auctions go for less than BIN anyways and in most cases I would assume 2nd place would have paid had they won.

One of the reasons I chose BCA as my input is they are rare enough to be expensive enough that if there is combined shipping it distorts the price less and they are common enough that there are enough sales to take multiple sales over any given time period. That and prospects. Can't have an RC if you're in the minors.

If I were you, I'd focus on low sale prices. There's a natural tendency to focus on high or median prices because the perception is they drive the market. But low sales may be a better gauge of value and trends. Changes in the floor should better reflect changes in true market value. There are always outliers or manipulation in sales, but I think those become more concentrated as you move up the price range. Market manipulators generally don't have an incentive to promote lower prices.

[Svabinsky78]

I think that the vintage HOFers - Mays, Clemente, Koufax, Ryan, Aaron, Carew, Frank Robinson, Ernie Banks, etc - will hold their value, especially for the 6 and up grades. There may a small dip but I do think that, on average, they will hold their value. Cards of the legendary HOFers have always been desirable, and especially so in higher grades (as those are on the scarcer side).

I think the scarce/rare cards of more recent and future HOFers - no name Frank Thomas, 1977 Henderson Modesto minor league card, auto and refractor rookie parallels of guys like Scherzer, Verlander, Kershaw, Cabrera, etc - will also, on the whole, keep their value. I don't think you'll be able to pick up a Verlander Topps Chrome auto rookie PSA 9 for $50. Like I said above, HOFers have been, are, and will be always desirable so their cards, in particular scarce rookies in nice shape, will be sought after by collectors.

It's the million PSA slabbed Joe Burrow rookies and the like that will fall hard...unless he becomes the next Tom Brady

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

If I were you, I'd focus on low sale prices. There's a natural tendency to focus on high or median prices because the perception is they drive the market. But low sales may be a better gauge of value and trends. Changes in the floor should better reflect changes in true market value. There are always outliers or manipulation in sales, but I think those become more concentrated as you move up the price range. Market manipulators generally don't have an incentive to promote lower prices.

I agree with the jist of your post, but I just think market manipulation is almost a non factor in the stuff that goes in to my price index. First, it's a lot tougher to manipulate 10 items in a relatively short time frame than it is a rare card (whether high grade vintage or low #'d modern). Second, for any card with any reasonable volume the lowest priced outliers are always auctions and the highest are always BIN. Lastly, I know from experience that a lot of those outlier (high) sales are real because I've made many of them.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by pewe

Don’t breakers “get for it” what the gamblers think the singles are worth?

So the real question, in my mind: how quickly do gamblers adjust their expectations? Or run out of $$?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Well casinos have been around for hundreds of years and are still building. And now more and more states are launching sports betting. I think the answer is that the money will never run out. Casinos have proven that people just don't care. They go for entertainment.

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

No. The gamblers have visions of $30k+ cards auctioned at Goldin dancing through their heads. If they were rational about their expectations, they wouldn’t be buying into breaks to begin with.

My theory is that breakers have become a form of entertainment and a community for people to chat and "hang out" virtually on any given night. I think it used to be about the cards. Now it's about the entertainment value. I stumbled on Twitch last night and was surprised at the number of breaker channels with over 100 active viewers at 10pm on a Wednesday. The chat rooms were busy and the breakers I clicked on appeared to be having a good time. I think the entertainment value is now the driving force. Older generations paid for cable, paid to go to the movies, paid to go to concerts, etc. I see more and more younger people paying instead to stay inside and watch whatever entertains them most. Breaking is one of those things.

So if people go to casinos to be "entertained" and lose money repeatedly and casinos continue to boom, why would anyone expect the well to run dry on breaking? And if anyone wants to question my theory, pay attention at the NSCC to the number of breakers who will be signing autographs and taking pictures with their "fans". I know the old dealers despise this but if it were all about the cards, one wouldn't be posing for pictures or getting autographs from the breakers. They are the new celebrities and that's why people keep breaking.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

I agree with the jist of your post, but I just think market manipulation is almost a non factor in the stuff that goes in to my price index. First, it's a lot tougher to manipulate 10 items in a relatively short time frame than it is a rare card (whether high grade vintage or low #'d modern). Second, for any card with any reasonable volume the lowest priced outliers are always auctions and the highest are always BIN. Lastly, I know from experience that a lot of those outlier (high) sales are real because I've made many of them.

If you're tracking a wide swath of mass produced cards, then I think macro numbers can provide a reliable representation of market behavior. But if you're tracking specific popular cards like Juan Soto's 2018 Topps Update, especially graded versions, then even though they were mass produced and are regularly bought and sold, I think a large amount of price manipulation can be involved. Supply can be hoarded and prices can be more effectively manipulated when a card is popular.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

My theory is that breakers have become a form of entertainment and a community for people to chat and "hang out" virtually on any given night. I think it used to be about the cards. Now it's about the entertainment value. I stumbled on Twitch last night and was surprised at the number of breaker channels with over 100 active viewers at 10pm on a Wednesday. The chat rooms were busy and the breakers I clicked on appeared to be having a good time. I think the entertainment value is now the driving force. Older generations paid for cable, paid to go to the movies, paid to go to concerts, etc. I see more and more younger people paying instead to stay inside and watch whatever entertains them most. Breaking is one of those things.

So if people go to casinos to be "entertained" and lose money repeatedly and casinos continue to boom, why would anyone expect the well to run dry on breaking? And if anyone wants to question my theory, pay attention at the NSCC to the number of breakers who will be signing autographs and taking pictures with their "fans". I know the old dealers despise this but if it were all about the cards, one wouldn't be posing for pictures or getting autographs from the breakers. They are the new celebrities and that's why people keep breaking.

That makes sense. That’s probably a big part it. It’s another aspect that makes the price of wax be out of line with the value of the cards inside the box.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

Well casinos have been around for hundreds of years and are still building. And now more and more states are launching sports betting. I think the answer is that the money will never run out. Casinos have proven that people just don't care. They go for entertainment.



My theory is that breakers have become a form of entertainment and a community for people to chat and "hang out" virtually on any given night. I think it used to be about the cards. Now it's about the entertainment value. I stumbled on Twitch last night and was surprised at the number of breaker channels with over 100 active viewers at 10pm on a Wednesday. The chat rooms were busy and the breakers I clicked on appeared to be having a good time. I think the entertainment value is now the driving force. Older generations paid for cable, paid to go to the movies, paid to go to concerts, etc. I see more and more younger people paying instead to stay inside and watch whatever entertains them most. Breaking is one of those things.

So if people go to casinos to be "entertained" and lose money repeatedly and casinos continue to boom, why would anyone expect the well to run dry on breaking? And if anyone wants to question my theory, pay attention at the NSCC to the number of breakers who will be signing autographs and taking pictures with their "fans". I know the old dealers despise this but if it were all about the cards, one wouldn't be posing for pictures or getting autographs from the breakers. They are the new celebrities and that's why people keep breaking.

Wait, are you seriously comparing group breaks to traditional forms of affordable entertainment like tv and movies? There is a lot more money involved in group breaks on a per costumer basis. It is not a casual activity -- significant money is involved.

Group breaks are distinctly different from other forms of gambling. All types of gambling are games of chance where money or other valuables are put at risk. But the value of breaks is based on the resale value of its winnings -- highly speculative trading cards. Legal forms of gambling generally reward winners with money.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Wait, are you seriously comparing group breaks to traditional forms of affordable entertainment like tv and movies? There is a lot more money involved in group breaks on a per costumer basis. It is not a casual activity -- significant money is involved.

Group breaks are distinctly different from other forms of gambling. All types of gambling are games of chance where money or other valuables are put at risk. But the value of breaks is based on the resale value of its winnings -- highly speculative trading cards. Legal forms of gambling generally reward winners with money.

But some of these breakers have formed a community around them. They’ve developed a “brand”. I have a friend who has never bought into a break, but still watches Pokémon breaks on YouTube.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Wait, are you seriously comparing group breaks to traditional forms of affordable entertainment like tv and movies? There is a lot more money involved in group breaks on a per costumer basis. It is not a casual activity -- significant money is involved.

Group breaks are distinctly different from other forms of gambling. All types of gambling are games of chance where money or other valuables are put at risk. But the value of breaks is based on the resale value of its winnings -- highly speculative trading cards. Legal forms of gambling generally reward winners with money.

I never said this thinking was rational. You need to put yourself in someone else's shoes to at least try to understand their mentality, or to understand why wax isn't falling as singles fall.

There are absolutely "winners" in group breaks. Maybe not as many as legal forms of gambling, but if you hit a nice card in a break you are a 3, 5, or 7 day auction away from cashing in. One is absolutely rewarded with money if they sell the big card they hit.

I won't digress from the entertainment piece because it's very real. Again, watch at the NSCC. People will walk up to Rich Layton, shake his hand, tell him they love his content, ask for his autograph, and take a selfie. This would not happen if cards were the end game. This is so much bigger than cards. Try to understand, even if it seems irrational.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

But some of these breakers have formed a community around them. They’ve developed a “brand”. I have a friend who has never bought into a break, but still watches Pokémon breaks on YouTube.

Huh -- okay. It seems weird, but to each his/her own.

I occasionally watch videos of breaks on youtube and they seem pretty lame to me -- rapid-fire opening of packs with worthless commons. You often have to sit through a relatively long video just see one valuable card pulled -- oftentimes there isn't a valuable card pulled.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

I never said this thinking was rational. You need to put yourself in someone else's shoes to at least try to understand their mentality, or to understand why wax isn't falling as singles fall.

There are absolutely "winners" in group breaks. Maybe not as many as legal forms of gambling, but if you hit a nice card in a break you are a 3, 5, or 7 day auction away from cashing in. One is absolutely rewarded with money if they sell the big card they hit.

I won't digress from the entertainment piece because it's very real. Again, watch at the NSCC. People will walk up to Rich Layton, shake his hand, tell him they love his content, ask for his autograph, and take a selfie. This would not happen if cards were the end game. This is so much bigger than cards. Try to understand, even if it seems irrational.

I can understand how the concept of group breaks could be appealing on an entertainment level and how group break hosts could become celebrity figures in the hobby.

I just dont see how group breaks in practice are generally a fun experience to watch. It's just a lot of boxes and packs being rapidly opened with big hits being far and few between. How does all the mundane repetition keep hold of people's attention if they don't have money at stake? I'm not trying to be a hater -- it just seems to lack substantive entertainment value.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

I can understand how the concept of group breaks could be appealing on an entertainment level and how group break hosts could become celebrity figures in the hobby.

I just dont see how group breaks in practice are generally a fun experience to watch. It's just a lot of boxes and packs being rapidly opened with big hits being far and few between. How does all the mundane repetition keep hold of people's attention if they don't have money at stake? I'm not trying to be a hater -- it just seems to lack substantive entertainment value.

I have admittedly watched breaks with no stake in the game. Not recently, but around 2017-2018 I would sit for hours and watch. Usually while listing cards on eBay. I've also watched Sasha T, CardCollector2, and MojoSports when they post their card show vlogs. I can't explain it. There are Netflix documentaries on whiskey distilleries that would put some to sleep but they have 5 star reviews so I guess everyone has their thing.

[fabiani12333]

I could totally see breaks of super high end products with guaranteed valuable hits being fun to watch. I could see it being a big event in the hobby. But generally speaking, breaks seem routine.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Huh -- okay. It seems weird, but to each his/her own.

I occasionally watch videos of breaks on youtube and they seem pretty lame to me -- rapid-fire opening of packs with worthless commons. You often have to sit through a relatively long video just see one valuable card pulled -- oftentimes there isn't a valuable card pulled.

I agree. It’s not my thing. Some people seem to like it though.

[mattglet]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

I can understand how the concept of group breaks could be appealing on an entertainment level and how group break hosts could become celebrity figures in the hobby.

I just dont see how group breaks in practice are generally a fun experience to watch. It's just a lot of boxes and packs being rapidly opened with big hits being far and few between. How does all the mundane repetition keep hold of people's attention if they don't have money at stake? I'm not trying to be a hater -- it just seems to lack substantive entertainment value.

One person's "boring" is another person's "interesting" - each person has their own outlook. I watch woodworking videos and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu videos on the regular... things that some people certainly find mind-numbingly boring.

Psychology isn't a binary science.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by mattglet

One person's "boring" is another person's "interesting" - each person has their own outlook. I watch woodworking videos and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu videos on the regular... things that some people certainly find mind-numbingly boring.

Psychology isn't a binary science.

But wouldn't you consider those things to have depth -- knowledge, skill, difficulty? Group breaks are simple and repetitive.