2021 Panini Prizm NFL

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

It's too easy, people just don't know how to do it.

While many cried about an overvalued market for the last 6-12 months, I've made a number of plays that have allowed me to profit nicely, hold some wax in my PC "free", rip some wax for "free" and add cards to the PC for "free".

People complain about current prices being too high but I'm still able to rip/collect comfortably like before. I've just adjusted to current times. A number of members are still living in the past.

You thinking four sales of unknown legitimacy on eBay for $2200-2300 means it’s “easy” tells me everything I need to know.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by Bob Ross

Yep, it's in there. I didn't think I got one at the time. Garbage site.

You're not the only one. My transaction was originally blocked due to potential CC fraud. Thought I missed out. Then I chose the proper option via text to inform them that it's me and re-attempted to place the order, and the app just closed...

But yeah, I got one in, fortunately.

[J1L]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

It's too easy, people just don't know how to do it.

While many cried about an overvalued market for the last 6-12 months, I've made a number of plays that have allowed me to profit nicely, hold some wax in my PC "free", rip some wax for "free" and add cards to the PC for "free".

People complain about current prices being too high but I'm still able to rip/collect comfortably like before. You just have to make certain adjustments. A number of members are still living in the distant past.

just really bizarre takes in here. Fotl Prizm is hot item and this years draft is def gonna prop up 2021 product. but to each their own.

[TheFrenzy]

Ready to buy singles.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

You thinking four sales of unknown legitimacy on eBay for $2200-2300 means it’s “easy” tells me everything I need to know.

It's really not that hard, Khal. You're one of the more intelligent and resourceful members on the forums, you'd be able to adjust easily. I do know your circumstances are better than most though so it's probably not worth your time and effort.

And, as much as I respect your opinion, you've also been wrong in the past (as we all have). Remember when you said 2021 Topps Montgomery Club membership offered no value? I just sold one of my 2020 Topps Chrome Formula 1 Sapphire Edition (acquired via 582 pre-sale access) for a $3200 profit. That covers the cost of the box and leaves me with another $1600 to play with. Not all participants of the hobby are pulling money from checkings/savings account to participate in it. I've been recycling profits for quite some time, can't even remember the last time I actually pulled money out of my checkings/savings to fund a card/wax purchase. And I'm just a little fish compared to others, I know there's many more that are doing the same thing but at a significantly greater scale.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by J1L

just really bizarre takes in here. Fotl Prizm is hot item and this years draft is def gonna prop up 2021 product. but to each their own.

I understand the frustrations being voiced though. However, there's still a lot of opportunities out there. Yeah, it's not the most comfortable feeling to drop thousands on wax when it was hundreds only a few years ago but times have changed.

You have to risk it for the biscuit.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

It’s the only explanation.

The markets are efficient. If no one bought any product for the next six months, you think those products would command the same price tags? The demand at those prices isn’t coming from individual collectors who want to rip their own boxes, it’s coming from breakers who need to get product for their customers.

If there were no break participants, there would be no breakers and prices would be a lot cheaper.

If you think the manufacturers and distributors are magically creating artificially high prices and prices are sustaining for no reason at all, you are getting confused. The demand is there, and it’s from breakers who know they can use the products at those high prices and still make a profit - from their degenerate gambling customers.

The explanation is that the bums setting presale don't need to sell. They can just break it at a lower price or sell it later for less if need be. It's unbelievable that the vast majority of you don't seem to realize groups getting allocation on virtually all these products it's zero risk. They pay 80% of MSRP. What Panini hobby product is selling for under MSRP? How many are selling for several multiples over MSRP? They could presell a product for $2,000 and even if it drops to $1,000 in a month they still make huge profits. This is the main reason I get so angry. They make huge money regardless. But they have to make sure to try and get every last penny and rip off people as much as possible.

Lol the vast majority of the products don't command the same price tag a month or two after release as initial/presale pricing! That's the main reason most of us are pointing out.

You believe if instead of paying 80% of MSRP that groups getting allocation had to pay 80% of what they priced the product at prices would be this high? Hell no. Presale prices would drop big time. They can price it at whatever they want though because it's currently zero risk. It's the never ending Panini money tree for them. Being given product after product hundreds of times for 2+ years straight.

[crazymj]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Lawrence, Fields, and Wilson suck and are with terrible franchises.

Lance is vaporware at this point.

Mac is nice, but he’ll never be in the league of Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, and Herbert.

You never know how a rookie will turn out until 3-4 years later. Joe burrow was a nobody after his injuries and no one expected him to play as well as he did this year. i bought 2 boxes of fotl prizm 2020 at $1100 each and now they're $3000, all you need is one decent quarterback from this class and the boxes should hold at $2500 in 2 years.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

The explanation is that the bums setting presale don't need to sell. They can just break it at a lower price or sell it later for less if need be. It's unbelievable that the vast majority of you don't seem to realize groups getting allocation on virtually all these products it's zero risk. They pay 80% of MSRP. What Panini hobby product is selling for under MSRP? How many are selling for several multiples over MSRP? They could presell a product for $2,000 and even if it drops to $1,000 in a month they still make huge profits. This is the main reason I get so angry. They make huge money regardless. But they have to make sure to try and get every last penny and rip off people as much as possible.

Lol the vast majority of the products don't command the same price tag a month or two after release as initial/presale pricing! That's the main reason most of us are pointing out.

You believe if instead of paying 80% of MSRP that groups getting allocation had to pay 80% of what they priced the product at prices would be this high? Hell no. Presale prices would drop big time. They can price it at whatever they want though because it's currently zero risk. It's the never ending Panini money tree for them. Being given product after product hundreds of times for 2+ years straight.

You are forgetting that no one is forcing anyone to buy the product at any price.

If no one buys the product, then it CAN GET LOWER than srp, like many products were in the early 2010’s.

The reason they can get greedy is because the break participants are allowing them to get greedy. $50 a spot, I’ll do one hundred breaks at that price for the chance at a million dollar card! That’s the mentality of the degenerate gambler.

That $50 mentality adds up to $1500/box - that’s where the demand is and that’s why they are crushing it.

We will not see those monster profits go away until we collective stop buying those products. No break participants, guess what, no breakers.

Prices come down because the big guys need to move product to pay for the next product.

You forget how collector friendly it was when panini first came out - almost everything under srp, many products couldn’t be given away.

What changed? The concept of group breaking, where NT boxes went from $400 to $1000 to $7000 now. Was it because “they” increased the prices artificially?

No, it was 100% the breaker culture.

[hermanotarjeta]

Flipper bois + breaker culture = higher wax prices for everyone.

[kobe080]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Lawrence, Fields, and Wilson suck and are with terrible franchises.

Lance is vaporware at this point.

Mac is nice, but he’ll never be in the league of Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, and Herbert.

This will not age well lol

[Somuchjunkwax]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

A number of FOTL boxes look to have sold in the $2250-$2300 range.

Of all the things I've read today, this is the most unbelievable. I cannot comprehend.

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by Somuchjunkwax

Of all the things I've read today, this is the most unbelievable. I cannot comprehend.

there are only a handful of transactions but i’m curious who the buyers are considering you could have just bought directly cheaper.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by BRob1

there are only a handful of transactions but i’m curious who the buyers are considering you could have just bought directly cheaper.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Some potential explanations:

- Group breakers who were already attempting to buy and/or bought directly from Panini and wanted more inventory
- People who didn't know that you could buy directly from Panini and wanted one to rip/flip/hold
- People who tried to time the bottom and missed out
- People who originally didn't care for the product but FOMO hit them
- Some people trying to manipulate sales history/prices

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

Some potential explanations:

- Group breakers who were already attempting to buy and/or bought directly from Panini and wanted more inventory
- People who didn't know that you could buy directly from Panini and wanted one to rip/flip/hold
- People who tried to time the bottom and missed out
- People who originally didn't care for the product but FOMO hit them

yeah those are mostly my thoughts as well. hard to imagine breakers buying at $2300, but i don’t know what spots are going for.

would be a tough deal to try to time the bottom and pass on 1700 and go pay resale $600 higher.

I just imagined it’s someone with more money than sense.


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[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by BRob1

yeah those are mostly my thoughts as well. hard to imagine breakers buying at $2300, but i don’t know what spots are going for.

would be a tough deal to try to time the bottom and pass on 1700 and go pay resale $600 higher.

I just imagined it’s someone with more money than sense.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I added one more possible explanation which is just as plausible as the others.

I don't know what spots are going for but I wouldn't be surprised if breakers can make a profit at a $2300 buy-in. Wouldn't even be surprised if some LCS are holding group breaks for local clients (to get paid in cash, save on shipping, etc).

Haha, I've previously bought a sealed case (via secondary market) of a product that I didn't mistime but only bought small quantity of. I bought it weeks after the drop and paid an extra $75 per box. Fortunately, box prices are higher so I could flip it for a profit (immediately to one of the big 3 too). It sucks but it happens.

[phil]

the FOMO is strong in this one

[GaryPayton]

Plan to scoop up some cheap singles once the market is flush with base, budget $100 and I will get all the stars and rookies, except for maybe Mac Jones, everyone else should be affordable.

[k13]

Originally Posted by Miz

I dont understand the hatred from the hobby for the companies making money. It's weird because it's sports cards or sports teams that are owned by billionaires that make a TON OF MONEY OFF ALL OF US...WHY no hatred for them? Or other corporations that have poor business practices that gouge prices , like Apple, Disney, Amazon etc. I can't understand why in sports cards it seems to be this deep hatred for companies making money...like if your against capitalism..then cool I respect that..but If your writing your complaint about panini on an iPhone your kinda contradicting yourself

Because they took the meat off the bone from all these flippers so now they can't buy early and flip.

[majestik101]

I'll buy singles after the gamblers overpay and then dump for cheap to pay their credit card debts

[oldgoldy97]

Originally Posted by Mister2Bits

How is this any different than a bartender?

You have a much better shot at getting lucky after dealing with a bartender.

[Pacmeyer]

Originally Posted by BRob1

there are only a handful of transactions but i’m curious who the buyers are considering you could have just bought directly cheaper.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Could also be the lazy man ebay effect. Some buyers always flock there without ever checking if something is available at a lower price elsewhere. Same reason Bowman blasters selling for $35 or more on ebay while they were $30 on Target.com

Also, these are just the first few sky high earlybird sales that you see whenever something new and shiny hits ebay.

[phil]

Looks like it was only 4 sales $2245-2300 and none for the last several hours, with more listings as low as $2200 not getting hit now.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

You are forgetting that no one is forcing anyone to buy the product at any price.

If no one buys the product, then it CAN GET LOWER than srp, like many products were in the early 2010’s.

The reason they can get greedy is because the break participants are allowing them to get greedy. $50 a spot, I’ll do one hundred breaks at that price for the chance at a million dollar card! That’s the mentality of the degenerate gambler.

That $50 mentality adds up to $1500/box - that’s where the demand is and that’s why they are crushing it.

We will not see those monster profits go away until we collective stop buying those products. No break participants, guess what, no breakers.

Prices come down because the big guys need to move product to pay for the next product.

You forget how collector friendly it was when panini first came out - almost everything under srp, many products couldn’t be given away.

What changed? The concept of group breaking, where NT boxes went from $400 to $1000 to $7000 now. Was it because “they” increased the prices artificially?

No, it was 100% the breaker culture.

Did you even read my post? Saying if everyone stopped buying into breaks isn’t realistic. On top of that it has nothing to do with presale prices. No one is selling breaks for products that are releasing in 2 months.

The guys getting allocation have made so much the last two years they could go forever selling nothing presale or basically nothing and it wouldn’t matter. Second they can’t lose on a product. You could maybe argue there is a baseball product they don’t make much on. Virtually everything is 1.5-10 times MSRP. These guy pay 80% of MSRP. They are charging more for Prizm hobby than they pay for Flawless. The average product they need to sell 20% at there prices to pay for their entire allocation.

If these guys are buying into all breaks for a chance at at $1 million card they are dumber than I thought. There wont be 5 products the whole year with a million dollar card. Even boxes with a high buy in, like Flawless Collegiate and Noir, don’t have a single $100,000 card let alone $1,000,000. What’s hilarious is 2020-21 Flawless had a $5 million dollar card. There are box sales of it around what presale on 2021 Flawless Football is. A product that won’t have a $5 million card. Won’t have a $1 million card. May not even have a $250,000 card. So breakers determined that these should be priced around the same? No. BO did.

What changed for prices increasing is single card sales skyrocketed. Now most singles have tanked yet prices are at an all time high for new wax. All because of market manipulation by the bums and Panini. ROI per box is the worst it’s ever been. In the 2010s no one was buying 50 hobby boxes and losing on every box. There are countless releases now you could buy 50 boxes at initial pricing and lose on every one. Go look at some of the presales. If it says out of stock search it on google and you should be able to see the last price. Products like 21-22 Noir, Prizm, Impeccable, 21 Chronicles and Flawless football, Impeccable soccer. You could spend endless amounts of money on multiple cases and lose on every one. 2010s No hobby boxes on average had 5% ROI. It’s not the norm. 2022 football will be the worst ROI in history.

It doesn’t matter what I say you and most just refuse to look at the numbers. There is so much stuff I’ve argued with people on here with what it would seem to any sane person is clear and obvious and yet I get told I don’t know what I’m talking about. I’m looking at hobby related stuff every day for countless years. I’m sure I’m nowhere near the most knowledgeable person but if you read what most people say about me you would think I joined the hobby last week instead of 25+ years ago. I really need to just quit posting. It’s like arguing with a wall.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

Did you even read my post? Saying if everyone stopped buying into breaks isn’t realistic. On top of that it has nothing to do with presale prices. No one is selling breaks for products that are releasing in 2 months.

The guys getting allocation have made so much the last two years they could go forever selling nothing presale or basically nothing and it wouldn’t matter. Second they can’t lose on a product. You could maybe argue there is a baseball product they don’t make much on. Virtually everything is 1.5-10 times MSRP. These guy pay 80% of MSRP. They are charging more for Prizm hobby than they pay for Flawless. The average product they need to sell 20% at there prices to pay for their entire allocation.

If these guys are buying into all breaks for a chance at at $1 million card they are dumber than I thought. There wont be 5 products the whole year with a million dollar card. Even boxes with a high buy in, like Flawless Collegiate and Noir, don’t have a single $100,000 card let alone $1,000,000. What’s hilarious is 2020-21 Flawless had a $5 million dollar card. There are box sales of it around what presale on 2021 Flawless Football is. A product that won’t have a $5 million card. Won’t have a $1 million card. May not even have a $250,000 card. So breakers determined that these should be priced around the same? No. BO did.

What changed for prices increasing is single card sales skyrocketed. Now most singles have tanked yet prices are at an all time high for new wax. All because of market manipulation by the bums and Panini. ROI per box is the worst it’s ever been. In the 2010s no one was buying 50 hobby boxes and losing on every box. There are countless releases now you could buy 50 boxes at initial pricing and lose on every one. Go look at some of the presales. If it says out of stock search it on google and you should be able to see the last price. Products like 21-22 Noir, Prizm, Impeccable, 21 Chronicles and Flawless football, Impeccable soccer. You could spend endless amounts of money on multiple cases and lose on every one. 2010s No hobby boxes on average had 5% ROI. It’s not the norm. 2022 football will be the worst ROI in history.

It doesn’t matter what I say you and most just refuse to look at the numbers. There is so much stuff I’ve argued with people on here with what it would seem to any sane person is clear and obvious and yet I get told I don’t know what I’m talking about. I’m looking at hobby related stuff every day for countless years. I’m sure I’m nowhere near the most knowledgeable person but if you read what most people say about me you would think I joined the hobby last week instead of 25+ years ago. I really need to just quit posting. It’s like arguing with a wall.

I've heard your anger loud and clear. We all see it. My local card shop guy has turned into a multimillionaire over the last three years. He was scraping by from 2005-2017, then today he's buying multiple million dollar houses in multiple states.

What you are not listening to is that people out there ARE paying those inflated prices. YES, PEOPLE ARE PAYING $2000 for FOTL boxes of prizm football.

And although not realistic due to the number of flipper bois and degenerate gamblers out there, wax would be so much cheaper if there was no demand for it. Unfortunately, the demand is there.

Flippers would pay $10,000 for boxes if they knew they could flip it for $12,000. They would hoard baby formula for $1000 a carton if they knew they could flip it for $1200.

Same as the gamblers. Some addicts spend $250,000 plus a year getting into breaks - $1000/break multiple times a week for high end products.

There is a lot of money out there, for now, and these groups have infested the hobby. And of course the big retailers and distributors are going to take advantage of it, they are there to make as much money as they can.

No matter how much we all hate it, those idiots who are willing to risk all their money are the ones driving prices up on themselves. Time will tell how long that will last.

So guess what, if it's no longer fun, leave the hobby. If enough people leave, the demand will shrink significantly.

If it's not worth your hard earned money, don't buy it. If enough people don't buy, the demand will shrink significantly.

Collect and break what you feel comfortable with, there's no pressure for you to try everything.

It's as simple as that.

I feel like those who are hoping for a market crash are trying to get those undesirable factors out of the hobby so that it can feel like a hobby again.

Unfortunately, the only thing I see breaking this vicious chain is a severely massive recession with a significant number of layoffs and an economic environment where people can no longer afford to spend money on luxuries, like sports cards.

Oh, and throw in several consecutive years of really, really bad rookie classes in all the sports.