Observations on the current state of the hobby from a show this weekend

[Boo]

Originally Posted by Raleigh504

This is like talking to my cousin's fiancé... because the 0.0000000001% time something has ever happened means it is the norm to her (to fit her argument) and the other 99.999999+% is an anomaly or doesn't count.

The dude still thinks Joey Gallo was and is good, that's all you need to know.

[Raleigh504]

Originally Posted by Boo

The dude still thinks Joey Gallo was and is good, that's all you need to know.

Haha, too funny.

For entertainment standpoint, it is fun/scary to talk to people who believe the crazy things in life. Fun because you can easily egg them on and mess with them due to difference in IQ. Scary cause they are a member of society that, depending on their occupation, can influence people's thoughts/beliefs.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by rainmaker

I don’t believe it’s manipulation I think it’s simply a few more eyes on each card than we have seen in the past 12-18 months.

Do you have an explanation for it?

Do investors anticipate a bull sports card market in 2023?

Are sports cards suddenly becoming trendy again with the general public?

[TooManyCards76]

Both sides are right in my opinion about the recession, except I’ve been calling it a rich-cession, where the top 10% is seeing their earning power squeezed because of no more free fed money with 0-1% interest, while the bottom 50% is seeing substantial payroll growth in both the forms of jobs and wages due to worker demand. Unfortunately our hobby plays in the top 50% of the market, so the tippy top guys (top 10%) are being judicious with their wallet and buying premium blue chip cards and keeping that part healthy, and the bottom of our market is healthy with low end base and high #’d refractors. Everything in between I feel is being squeezed on margins, basically like it was in 2017-2019. Not every top 100 prospect is being priced like the next Mantle/Mays/Aaron, sure there is Julio-mania, but Wander, Witt, Adley, etc are somewhat affordable and if you want to take a deep dive into prospects you can without mortgaging your house.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by TooManyCards76

Both sides are right in my opinion about the recession, except I’ve been calling it a rich-cession, where the top 10% is seeing their earning power squeezed because of no more free fed money with 0-1% interest, while the bottom 50% is seeing substantial payroll growth in both the forms of jobs and wages due to worker demand.

Wage data does not support this. Inflation crushed nominal wage growth in 2022. Now the job losses and benefits cuts will kick in.

Every situation is different. This is dragging out long enough that people are starting to think everything is going to be just fine. Now it’s time for the next leg down.

[thenightman]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

We have a governing body that determines whether there was a recession or not. No need for me to give any definition. It's about as valuable as me defining a home run.

Why would you trust people who's best interest is their own? You think they are just magnanimously looking out for you?

[TooManyCards76]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Wage data does not support this. Inflation crushed nominal wage growth in 2022. Now the job losses and benefits cuts will kick in.

Every situation is different. This is dragging out long enough that people are starting to think everything is going to be just fine. Now it’s time for the next leg down.

On the whole yes, inflation crushed wage growth, but not in the bottom 50%. Workers that were getting $8-$10/hour in Atlanta are now seeing $12-$15/hour. So wage growth in the hourly industry has more than outpaced the 8-10% inflation. Averaging in the bottom 50% at higher rates is drug down by the top 50% headlined by anyone working on commission/sales as 2023 isnt going to be a growth year for those folks (there will be outliers, but 2020-2022 high margins don’t exist anymore)… we’ll also see a small gain in managerial/executive pay but it won’t outpace inflation. The low end workers are doing better.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[pewe]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Wage data does not support this. Inflation crushed nominal wage growth in 2022. Now the job losses and benefits cuts will kick in.

Every situation is different. This is dragging out long enough that people are starting to think everything is going to be just fine. Now it’s time for the next leg down.

Having spent some time looking back at recessions and recession scares of the last ~20 years, the one hypothesis that is stating to form: a "real recession" only occurs if it is unexpected. Otherwise the anxieties remain a scare, and things kind of just go horizontal (think 2011-2014, 2016).

I realize I was one of the first ones to start threads on here re: "what will you do when the recession hits?" But I now wonder if it will require something unexpected to have a real additional leg down.

Which is not to say that won't happen. The problem with the unexpected is its hard to predict. For instance, I continue to worry about commercial real estate... but that might be a 2024 issue. And I have no particular expertise there other than squinting at high interest rates ramming up against high vacancy rates and short refinancing time periods.

[f2tornado]

I went to a show in Fargo this weekend and the place was the busiest I've ever seen it. It wasn't just window shoppers either as money was flying around the place. I'd say the hobby is in a good spot for now.

[FT35]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Some of those questions are maybe worth asking, some are nonsense. Your final take is ludicrous. I wouldn't say this is a boom economy, but it's closer to that than a bust. In 50 years the historians are going to look back on 2022 and say "WTF was everybody talking about, is this a recession?"

I go back to the glory days of 2013-2019 and remember people complaining about the economy. I said, no no. we are in a boom. The grass is always greener somewhere else. Things could be better, but they could also be much, much worse.

Every ounce of integrity our governing body had left, is certainly gone at this point. The media is no different than the pump and dumps you hear posted on these boards too. Trusting either of these groups of people is recipe for disaster. Let’s just focus on what we each need to do to get through this. If you feel things are just fine, roll with it. Prepare and navigate as you see fit. I genuinely wish you no harm.

The fact that so many people have a different perspective than you have—that things are not great—is all we need to know how the card market is. Even if they are wrong in thinking this! There are major segments of our population who are being squeezed enough to clamp down on their spending. If that’s a secret sign of a boom, so be it. But the mere fact that many are there now is speaking loudly, answers many questions and takes the guess work out of how things really are.

[Philthy]

Was setup at a show for the first time this weekend. It was a small show and the first time they have put this one on.

I only sold a couple of slabs, but moved quite a bit of sub-$10 cards. Made a little bit of money and had a blast chatting sports and the hobby with people at the show. I almost only do baseball so a lot of people came by and were friendly but "I don't know anything about baseball."

I learned that the tough negotiators are kids. I had some sealed blasters and 4 or 5 times kids would come up and ask if they could trade for a prizm blaster. They'd show me a bunch of $1 cards, but its tough to say no!

[FT35]

Originally Posted by Philthy

Its tough to say no!

Their dad’s know this!

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by FT35

Every ounce of integrity our governing body had left, is certainly gone at this point. The media is no different than the pump and dumps you hear posted on these boards too. Trusting either of these groups of people is recipe for disaster. Let’s just focus on what we each need to do to get through this. If you feel things are just fine, roll with it. Prepare and navigate as you see fit. I genuinely wish you no harm.

The fact that so many people have a different perspective than you have—that things are not great—is all we need to know how the card market is. Even if they are wrong in thinking this! There are major segments of our population who are being squeezed enough to clamp down on their spending. If that’s a secret sign of a boom, so be it. But the mere fact that many are there now is speaking loudly, answers many questions and takes the guess work out of how things really are.

Not saying tough times aren’t ahead (and there’ll always be tough times independent of each other), malls are still crowded and Vegas is still popping.

There’ll always be opportunities. Even when/if the economy enters a full-blown recession, opportunities will still be available (long-term opportunities will be very nice during that time).

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by TooManyCards76

On the whole yes, inflation crushed wage growth, but not in the bottom 50%. Workers that were getting $8-$10/hour in Atlanta are now seeing $12-$15/hour. So wage growth in the hourly industry has more than outpaced the 8-10% inflation. Averaging in the bottom 50% at higher rates is drug down by the top 50% headlined by anyone working on commission/sales as 2023 isnt going to be a growth year for those folks (there will be outliers, but 2020-2022 high margins don’t exist anymore)… we’ll also see a small gain in managerial/executive pay but it won’t outpace inflation. The low end workers are doing better.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Do you have the data to support this?

December BLS data shows YoY contraction in real hourly wages for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls. $9.71 to $9.60. I know that’s not necessarily bottom 50%, but you’re not very high on the totem poll if your real wages are under $10 an hour.

The good news is that real wages grew in the second half as inflation got better. But China reopening and mild weather stands to screw up gas prices again, which may lead to a second inflation surge.

[FT35]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

Not saying tough times aren’t ahead (and there’ll always be tough times independent of each other), malls are still crowded and Vegas is still popping.

There’ll always be opportunities. Even when/if the economy enters a full-blown recession, opportunities will still be available (long-term opportunities will be very nice during that time).

For sure! I’m definitely down on the state of the economy in a BIG way, but try to stay optimistic-minded about most things. Opportunities will present themselves everywhere and this whole thing looks different through everyone’s eyes.

One thing is for sure, hobby wise I wish I could be adding more things than I am able to right now. Buuuutt…I always feel that way, sooo…

[JeremyNick]

Originally Posted by TooManyCards76

On the whole yes, inflation crushed wage growth, but not in the bottom 50%. Workers that were getting $8-$10/hour in Atlanta are now seeing $12-$15/hour. So wage growth in the hourly industry in Atlanta has more than outpaced the 8-10% inflation. Averaging in the bottom 50% at higher rates is drug down by the top 50% headlined by anyone working on commission/sales as 2023 isnt going to be a growth year for those folks (there will be outliers, but 2020-2022 high margins don’t exist anymore)… we’ll also see a small gain in managerial/executive pay but it won’t outpace inflation. The low end workers in Atlanta are not doing as bad.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

What happened in Atlanta is not representative of the whole US and economy.

[TooManyCards76]

Originally Posted by JeremyNick

What happened in Atlanta is not representative of the whole US and economy.

Why is everyone assuming low end jobs aren’t gaining on inflation while the majority of white collar jobs aren’t? While my company isn’t the be all end all, we do have warehouses in MD, NY, NC, GA, FL, IL, TX, CA, WA, OR and our average warehouse hourly wages went from $18 to $22/hour from 2020 to the end of 2022, with an expected increase of another $1-$2/hour this calendar year.

It’s a fact low end wages on average are rising faster than white collar wages based on %.

[clsports]

I see the same in the Philadelphia area too. My son is in HS and got a dishwashing job that pays $13/hr. P/T.

I am in the civil engineering field in a major city and have not had a raise in 3 years, but we need to pay incoming college graduates with engineering degrees a much higher salary to compete with other companies. The low end salaries are going up.

My wife is an RN and is in the same situation. New nurses starting out of school are now making closer to her salary even with her having 20 years experience.

It is true what he says and I do think it is nationwide. I have no statistics to prove this!

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by TooManyCards76

Why is everyone assuming low end jobs aren’t gaining on inflation while the majority of white collar jobs aren’t? While my company isn’t the be all end all, we do have warehouses in MD, NY, NC, GA, FL, IL, TX, CA, WA, OR and our average warehouse hourly wages went from $18 to $22/hour from 2020 to the end of 2022, with an expected increase of another $1-$2/hour this calendar year.

It’s a fact low end wages on average are rising faster than white collar wages based on %.

I provided the national data. Can you provide any data to support what you’re saying?

[Nester99]

Originally Posted by clsports

I see the same in the Philadelphia area too. My son is in HS and got a dishwashing job that pays $13/hr. P/T.

I am in the civil engineering field in a major city and have not had a raise in 3 years, but we need to pay incoming college graduates with engineering degrees a much higher salary to compete with other companies. The low end salaries are going up.

My wife is an RN and is in the same situation. New nurses starting out of school are now making closer to her salary even with her having 20 years experience.

It is true what he says and I do think it is nationwide. I have no statistics to prove this!

No wage growth in 3 years during the biggest wage growth period in recent history ? 2 in demand high skilled jobs?

Time for both of you to shop your services.

[Raleigh504]

Originally Posted by clsports

I see the same in the Philadelphia area too. My son is in HS and got a dishwashing job that pays $13/hr. P/T.

I am in the civil engineering field in a major city and have not had a raise in 3 years, but we need to pay incoming college graduates with engineering degrees a much higher salary to compete with other companies. The low end salaries are going up.

My wife is an RN and is in the same situation. New nurses starting out of school are now making closer to her salary even with her having 20 years experience.

It is true what he says and I do think it is nationwide. I have no statistics to prove this!

I was an accounting major out of college. That was the norm for new employees. They would typically hire everyone around the same salary. The next year they would have the new class hired at above what you are making. If they like you/you are good then you would make more than the new employees during the promotion period. If not then they bumped you up to what the new employees made.

For example, if you started last year and made $45k, the new hires would come in at $46-$48k. If they liked you then you would clear $50k, otherwise you would get $47-$48k. Happened my 2.5 years there. 6 months in got a bump in pay since they had new hires in December starting $3k more than me. The next promotion time, everyone was bumped up to the new hires. The following year it was again what the new hires got. Most would either leave or get promoted by then (or both).

[Raleigh504]

Now back to the current state of the hobby, for those that set up at shows (was thinking about this a bit ago). What is the most you will pay for a table when setting up? Does it fluctuate depending on the expected traffic/location or do you just have a flat rate you won't spend more than for a table?

[jjcan]

This weekend small show/flea market/card shop seemed busy. A lot of people just buying a lot of low end cards and looking at cards cheaper than $200. Lots of superbowl talk and speculating.

2022 Baseball guys were buying bowman draft and the Jrod, Witt rcs. Saw a lot of kids and parents talking about getting ready for Fan Fests and spring training and getting ready for cards to get signed when they go out there.

Also Pokemon was hot, and a lot of talk on new Pokemon Scarlet and Violet coming out at higher prices at the shop, so parents/adults are starting to pick up the current product even more so.

Market looks good, at the low "affordable end" , retail is becoming easier to find, online you can still buy something if you really want to crack anything at retail. Might not be the best bang for the buck, but that was always the problem with retail when not hyped because of flipped the years (19-22)

Regardless of where the Economy is going, people who are showing up seem to at least look and browse and seem optimistic in picking up something, even if its low end.

[clsports]

Originally Posted by Nester99

No wage growth in 3 years during the biggest wage growth period in recent history ? 2 in demand high skilled jobs?

Time for both of you to shop your services.

We are closer to retirement and not looking for job changes, but you are correct in your assessment. Also, more $$ does not always equate to happiness. The grass is always greener . . . but so is the cash, so maybe I do need a change. Nah.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by clsports

We are closer to retirement and not looking for job changes, but you are correct in your assessment. Also, more $$ does not always equate to happiness. The grass is always greener . . . but so is the cash, so maybe I do need a change. Nah.

Though both of you are very deserving of raises (especially your wife, much respect to RNs and all healthcare workers, especially in recent times), I assumed ya'll were living comfortably enough that pay raises wouldn't change much. Knowing that you're both close to retirement reaffirms that as ya'll likely own a home and have a good amount of money in your retirement accounts, collectively.

Sometimes, being comfortable is just as important as making a lot of money. And if you're making enough to afford your daily lifestyle, pay for a mortgage, save up enough for retirement, and enjoy some miscellaneous hobbies/family trips/etc, you don't really need more.