Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.

[BigSlim16]

Originally Posted by towerymt

There's another one...

https://ebay.com/itm/134206511103

This one’s already at $185. Looks like the last one may have been an outlier

[rngrdanny22]

Originally Posted by BigSlim16

This one’s already at $185. Looks like the last one may have been an outlier

And I haven't bid yet!

[BigSlim16]

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

And I haven't bid yet!

Good luck! One sold on the 14th for $222. In my opinion that seems like a much more realistic/fair price than the $165 sale that was brought up before

[Triple B]

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

Hey bbases, since you are going to continue to haunt this thread, I might as well indulge. Would you say Vlad is having a lucky year, unlucky year, or this is about what you'd expect from him? I'll just use one stat for example.. wRC+. Would you say 140 is going to be pretty consistently where you expect him to fall?

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

Why are you indulging this guy? It's clear he's using you to fill the void of not getting any attention from anyone of any gender. This is pretty romantic.

Quit quoting his stupidity. Cards are down across the board (including his beat material in Ohtani cards) but he's concentrating solely on Vlad. He gets dragged in every thread because of his one-dimensional takes. Quit quoting his stupidity.

[Biohazarddfl]

Originally Posted by Triple B

Why are you indulging this guy? It's clear he's using you to fill the void of not getting any attention from anyone of any gender. This is pretty romantic.



Quit quoting his stupidity. Cards are down across the board (including his beat material in Ohtani cards) but he's concentrating solely on Vlad. He gets dragged in every thread because of his one-dimensional takes. Quit quoting his stupidity.

I agree with everything you are saying. To answer your question, I don't really care if he has some sort of impact in tanking vlads prices or interest by haunting this thread. I will get to buy more and laugh later. Also, I did stop and clearly he wont ever stop, so im going to engage. Hopefully he will answer my question.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

Hey bbases, since you are going to continue to haunt this thread, I might as well indulge. Would you say Vlad is having a lucky year, unlucky year, or this is about what you'd expect from him? I'll just use one stat for example.. wRC+. Would you say 140 is going to be pretty consistently where you expect him to fall?

About expected. If he was a little higher or lower it wouldn't surprise me. Wouldn't say he's been lucky or unlucky so far.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by Triple B

Why are you indulging this guy? It's clear he's using you to fill the void of not getting any attention from anyone of any gender. This is pretty romantic.

Quit quoting his stupidity. Cards are down across the board (including his beat material in Ohtani cards) but he's concentrating solely on Vlad. He gets dragged in every thread because of his one-dimensional takes. Quit quoting his stupidity.

Living rent free in your head

[towerymt]

His quality of contact was better last year. Fangraphs page has most of what you need. ZIPS 3-yr projections are looking optomistic. I prefer steamer and the bat. The Bat X adjusts for statcast/quality of contact, so guys who hit the ball hard should see a slight bump.

[BigSlim16]

Vlad vs. Ohtani should be a fun matchup today. Vladdy actually has good numbers vs Ohtani, albeit only 5 ABs

[Biohazarddfl]

Originally Posted by BBases31

About expected. If he was a little higher or lower it wouldn't surprise me. Wouldn't say he's been lucky or unlucky so far.

Would you say he is likely to sit around a 140 wRC+ for the next 8-10 seasons? I think the batting profile suggests it's more likely closer to 150, but let's say 140.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

Would you say he is likely to sit around a 140 wRC+ for the next 8-10 seasons? I think the batting profile suggests it's more likely closer to 150, but let's say 140.

I would be shocked if this was his ceiling. But the aging curve of guys who enter the majors at really early ages actually shows an average peak of 23 to 25 as opposed to most players being 26 to 28. He's could wind up being one of the 3 best hitters in the league. Would it surprise if he did that next season? Not really, the potential is there. People tend in this thread seem to think that I think Guerrero sucks, which I've never said. My *only* argument against Guerrero, and it's really not even against him it's just against the expectations that card people here have for him, is that last year's counting stats(Triple crown) and MVP contention were an aberration due to the Minor League parks. That's literally it. He's already a great hitter with top 3 potential, no doubt about that

[Nester99]

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

Would you say he is likely to sit around a 140 wRC+ for the next 8-10 seasons? I think the batting profile suggests it's more likely closer to 150, but let's say 140.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

Most of us have him on ignore, you keep quoting him brings the comments back into our feed via your post. If you quote him again you will be added to ignore by many in this thread.

Best of luck with whatever you decide to do.

[Biohazarddfl]

Originally Posted by BBases31

I would be shocked if this was his ceiling. But the aging curve of guys who enter the majors at really early ages actually shows an average peak of 23 to 25 as opposed to most players being 26 to 28. He's could wind up being one of the 3 best hitters in the league. Would it surprise if he did that next season? Not really, the potential is there

So by all projections, he basically has a Chipper Jones floor with some immense unprecedented upside if he puts the ball in the air more. How many of the players who peak on your curve at a young age have Vlads eye/EV/hard hit combo?

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

[LVDan]

Lighten up Francis


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[BigSlim16]

Originally Posted by BBases31

I would be shocked if this was his ceiling. But the aging curve of guys who enter the majors at really early ages actually shows an average peak of 23 to 25 as opposed to most players being 26 to 28. He's could wind up being one of the 3 best hitters in the league. Would it surprise if he did that next season? Not really, the potential is there. People tend in this thread seem to think that I think Guerrero sucks, which I've never said. My *only* argument against Guerrero, and it's really not even against him it's just against the expectations that card people here have for him, is that last year's counting stats(Triple crown) and MVP contention were an aberration due to the Minor League parks. That's literally it. He's already a great hitter with top 3 potential, no doubt about that

I actually agree with pretty much everything you said here. The only thing I'm confused about is how can you think he has no MVP potential if he has top 3 hitter potential? It seems like those two would go hand in hand, no?

[rngrdanny22]

Just missed that 3-0 pitch. The double was still nice.

[LVDan]

Originally Posted by BigSlim16

I actually agree with pretty much everything you said here. The only thing I'm confused about is how can you think he has no MVP potential if he has top 3 hitter potential? It seems like those two would go hand in hand, no?

I think it has everything to do with zero speed and mediocre to poor defense at a neg WAR position. For him to win MVP he’ll need to be the best power+avg hitter in the league like prime Miggy/Pujols. Especially in a WAR obsessed era that includes freaks like Ohtani.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[BigSlim16]

Originally Posted by LVDan

I think it has everything to do with zero speed and mediocre to poor defense at a neg WAR position. For him to win MVP he’ll need to be the best power+avg hitter in the league like prime Miggy/Pujols. Especially in a WAR obsessed era that includes freaks like Ohtani.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That's definitely a fair assessment. But at the same time, I don't think it's crazy to say that he's shown the ability/potential to put up seasons where he is in fact the best power and avg hitter. Something like Goldy this year if everything clicks

The beauty is that he is 23 years old and we can have debates like this. Who knows, he could fizzle out or he could have a 3,000 hit career

Plus, Ohtani may be playing for the Dodgers in two years for all we know lol

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by BigSlim16

I actually agree with pretty much everything you said here. The only thing I'm confused about is how can you think he has no MVP potential if he has top 3 hitter potential? It seems like those two would go hand in hand, no?

Because as a 1B with average defense and poor baserunning, which most people don't realize does count in the WAR number, it's tough to get enough WAR. Even last year he only had 6.3. You really gotta be putting up cartoon numbers like Goldschmidt is this year. But even then the 7.2 BsR(baserunning) difference between Goldschmidt and Guerrero is I think worth almost a full WAR.

Can Guerrero contend for an MVP at some point? Possibly. He has to make a huge leap from here in hitting ability, lead the league in wRC+, keep improving on defense, probably have to lead the league in a major counting stat, and all the stars have to align on a given season that no other position player is putting up a 7+ WAR season.

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

So by all projections, he basically has a Chipper Jones floor with some immense unprecedented upside if he puts the ball in the air more. How many of the players who peak on your curve at a young age have Vlads eye/EV/hard hit combo?

Probably a handful at most? There's no doubt he's got unique potential

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by LVDan

I think it has everything to do with zero speed and mediocre to poor defense at a neg WAR position. For him to win MVP he’ll need to be the best power+avg hitter in the league like prime Miggy/Pujols. Especially in a WAR obsessed era that includes freaks like Ohtani.

Took the words right out of my mouth. His defense definitely improved this year though. WAR doesn't use OAA but OAA is our best measure and he was a -4 last year and currently sitting at 0

[rngrdanny22]

Originally Posted by LVDan

I think it has everything to do with zero speed and mediocre to poor defense at a neg WAR position. For him to win MVP he’ll need to be the best power+avg hitter in the league like prime Miggy/Pujols. Especially in a WAR obsessed era that includes freaks like Ohtani.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I wouldn't say he has "zero speed". He can fly when he turns it on. Yeah, he's 33rd percentile according to Baseball Savant, but apparently that metric takes into consideration the top two thirds of the times a player runs to first base. Watching Vladdy play, I'd bet near anything that his average is pulled way down because he just flat out doesn't run out ground balls. He jogs so slowly in many cases.

Edited to add: Here's how "sprint speed" is calculated: https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/sprint-speed

[LVDan]

Originally Posted by BigSlim16

That's definitely a fair assessment. But at the same time, I don't think it's crazy to say that he's shown the ability/potential to put up seasons where he is in fact the best power and avg hitter. Something like Goldy this year if everything clicks

The beauty is that he is 23 years old and we can have debates like this. Who knows, he could fizzle out or he could have a 3,000 hit career

Plus, Ohtani may be playing for the Dodgers in two years for all we know lol

I agree with all of this. I’d be shocked if he isn’t a perennial 10-15 year AS at the least. He seems to have a passion for the game and a drive to improve.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[BAHoopla]

Any one remember when this thread was fun?

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by BAHoopla

Any one remember when this thread was fun?

FATBoY!!!!!!!

[Biohazarddfl]

Originally Posted by BigSlim16

That's definitely a fair assessment. But at the same time, I don't think it's crazy to say that he's shown the ability/potential to put up seasons where he is in fact the best power and avg hitter. Something like Goldy this year if everything clicks

The beauty is that he is 23 years old and we can have debates like this. Who knows, he could fizzle out or he could have a 3,000 hit career

Plus, Ohtani may be playing for the Dodgers in two years for all we know lol

I would add that the fizzle is a lot less likely than most because he has an elite eye that will likely only improve and unlike someone the other first baseman that have fizzled of late, he won't get shifted as much.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk