First Buzz: 2020 Topps Chrome Formula 1 racing cards

[chuckerrrr]

Originally Posted by Cl1ffHuxtable

So I find it weird that nice PSA 10 singles aren't even bringing the price of a sealed hobby box. I get that people still want to fish for autos or just hold wax as an "investment" but I'm seeing Gold 70th Max portrait PSA 10s selling for 3500 and I'm just scratching my head. Either wax is far overvalued or singles are far undervalued. The big price increase happened approximately 2 weeks after The National last year, will be interesting to see what happens after The National this year.

Wax is far overvalued. As someone who opened close to 100 boxes of Chrome last year there is no way these boxes should be priced what they are within a year. 94 Lewis Hamilton autos exist. 3200 cases made. Hamilton auto is 1:33 cases. Whats a case going for these days? 40k+? Just buy a Hammy auto instead.


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[chuckerrrr]

Originally Posted by Nutcracker33

the full auto set went for 133k on goldin couple of days ago

does that mean the Hamilton is worth half of that ?

I would say Hammy would be 60% of whatever total a complete set goes for.

I dont see anyone paying more for the rest combined than a Hammy auto.


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[Ferg1945]

Originally Posted by chuckerrrr

Wax is far overvalued. As someone who opened close to 100 boxes of Chrome last year there is no way these boxes should be priced what they are within a year. 94 Lewis Hamilton autos exist. 3200 cases made. Hamilton auto is 1:33 cases. Whats a case going for these days? 40k+? Just buy a Hammy auto instead.


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It's not just the Hamilton autographs. The Hamilton variation is inching close to $5K raw. LeClerc is going insane.

Buying a case to rip might not be the best idea... Buying one to hold...

[Tim]

Originally Posted by chuckerrrr

Wax is far overvalued. As someone who opened close to 100 boxes of Chrome last year there is no way these boxes should be priced what they are within a year. 94 Lewis Hamilton autos exist. 3200 cases made. Hamilton auto is 1:33 cases. Whats a case going for these days? 40k+? Just buy a Hammy auto instead.


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Same argument is always brought up with every wax vs contents product. Wax always is worth more than most case's contents. It's all about the POTENTIAL of hitting a monster.

[chuckerrrr]

Originally Posted by Tim

Same argument is always brought up with every wax vs contents product. Wax always is worth more than most case's contents. It's all about the POTENTIAL of hitting a monster.

Yeah but hitting a monster in this is ridiculously hard. If a case is 40k+ you may as well buy singles. At that price your odds of hitting a card worth more than the case is very very slim. All the big supers have been pulled other than max portrait. Then you got to hit lewis auto which as I said above 1:33 cases. F1 has people mesmerized because it’s new to a lot of them. Not much logic going on with wax prices and people wanting to hit big. Just buy the singles at this point. Thats if your buying with intention to rip of course.


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[Litwing]

Originally Posted by chuckerrrr

Yeah but hitting a monster in this is ridiculously hard. If a case is 40k+ you may as well buy singles. At that price your odds of hitting a card worth more than the case is very very slim. All the big supers have been pulled other than max portrait. Then you got to hit lewis auto which as I said above 1:33 cases. F1 has people mesmerized because it’s new to a lot of them. Not much logic going on with wax prices and people wanting to hit big. Just buy the singles at this point. Thats if your buying with intention to rip of course.


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A case should contain a number of different parallels for Hamilton, Max, Leclerc, GR(true RC), Norris(true RC), (you are not breaking NBA products with like 400 existing players and tones of retired players in a set, which should contain very less cards of players with value in a case for prizm-liked trading cards). The chance of getting one of the auto from these driver is much less than 1:33 as well.

Does anyone do a math to count the average return for all the parallels/autos ripped from a case?Maybe not some huge value but at least not too far from $40k+ case price?

[Tim]

Originally Posted by chuckerrrr

Yeah but hitting a monster in this is ridiculously hard. If a case is 40k+ you may as well buy singles. At that price your odds of hitting a card worth more than the case is very very slim. All the big supers have been pulled other than max portrait. Then you got to hit lewis auto which as I said above 1:33 cases. F1 has people mesmerized because it’s new to a lot of them. Not much logic going on with wax prices and people wanting to hit big. Just buy the singles at this point. Thats if your buying with intention to rip of course.


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Again same argument I could make for every sealed product. Always better to sell sealed or to buy singles. F1 is not unique

[chuckerrrr]

Originally Posted by Litwing

A case should contain a number of different parallels for Hamilton, Max, Leclerc, GR(true RC), Norris(true RC), (you are not breaking NBA products with like 400 existing players and tones of retired players in a set, which should contain very less cards of players with value in a case for prizm-liked trading cards). The chance of getting one of the auto from these driver is much less than 1:33 as well.

Does anyone do a math to count the average return for all the parallels/autos ripped from a case?Maybe not some huge value but at least not too far from $40k+ case price?

I opened 4 sealed cases last year. 1 of them the best card a Lando portrait /50. Another Leclerc portrait /50. All the autos sucked in those. They do not always contain a number of different parallels of the top guys. One did have a Max auto /25. Still a lot of boxes where trash even at $500-600 a box.


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[mwheeler27]

Originally Posted by chuckerrrr

Yeah but hitting a monster in this is ridiculously hard. If a case is 40k+ you may as well buy singles. At that price your odds of hitting a card worth more than the case is very very slim. All the big supers have been pulled other than max portrait. Then you got to hit lewis auto which as I said above 1:33 cases. F1 has people mesmerized because it’s new to a lot of them. Not much logic going on with wax prices and people wanting to hit big. Just buy the singles at this point. Thats if your buying with intention to rip of course.


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If you're chasing just one card worth more than the price of a case, are you throwing all the other cards away?

After all the years this hobby has existed, I'm surprised there are still people that think you should break even or make money on every box/case you buy.

[Ferg1945]

A case sold 30 minutes ago on eBay.

$38,800 ($3,233.33/box)

https://ebay.com/itm/304468912447?au...p2047675.l2557

[Tim]

Originally Posted by Ferg1945

A case sold 30 minutes ago on eBay.

$38,800 ($3,233.33/box)

https://ebay.com/itm/304468912447?au...p2047675.l2557

I was thinking that was actually low and then I saw the rough condition of the case and the fact it was coming from Hong Kong and that explained it.

[Ferg1945]

Originally Posted by Tim

I was thinking that was actually low and then I saw the rough condition of the case and the fact it was coming from Hong Kong and that explained it.

That seems low?

$3200 a box looks pretty good. I checked eBay and didn't see any other 2020 cases that ended recently. I agree... Hong Kong isn't the greatest... but the price looked solid to me.

What are they going for elsewhere?

[dream34]

Whoa....

[IronCladLou]

Originally Posted by Ferg1945

$3200 a box looks pretty good.

My local place had them for $1500 early in the year and i ummed and ahhed about it and couldn't swing it and regretted it once they must have seen the page views and upped it by a grand

[dream34]

Leclerc Super 1/1 just did 264k...

[Cpdjoe77]

Originally Posted by dream34

Leclerc Super 1/1 just did 264k...

Saw this, that was tough to look at. My buddy and I had the 70th super


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[Ianhatcher]

Outside the Leclerc seems to me F1 is softening quite a but. Understandable with so many products hitting the market at once and adding a lot more supply to the demand.

[dream34]

Originally Posted by Ianhatcher

Outside the Leclerc seems to me F1 is softening quite a but. Understandable with so many products hitting the market at once and adding a lot more supply to the demand.

I keep hearing this but is this just about the 2021 cards? I've been pretty consistently outbid on some of the rare 2020 Chrome cards by quite a large margin. The raw Hamilton Dynasty doing 90k on Goldin last night was quite impressive to me, 4x the last non-gem copy to sell and I believe the highest public sale of any F1 Dynasty card period. And it's only a #/5 card with a nice patch on it but also a medium level auto and of a driver who up until today had not turned in any nice performances this season.

I also anticipated 2021 product diluting the market but seems like a lot of the 2020 cards are still being gobbled up. All markets are falling though, so we'll see in the next coming months where all of this goes.

[swok]

In general what is the color parallel hierarchy when it comes to true color vs sapphire vs wave?

For orange chrome for example, would it go true orange, then sapphire, then wave?

[Cpdjoe77]

Originally Posted by swok

In general what is the color parallel hierarchy when it comes to true color vs sapphire vs wave?

For orange chrome for example, would it go true orange, then sapphire, then wave?

For me personally it’d be sapphire then true orange then wave


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[Merkle14]

Originally Posted by dream34

I keep hearing this but is this just about the 2021 cards? I've been pretty consistently outbid on some of the rare 2020 Chrome cards by quite a large margin. The raw Hamilton Dynasty doing 90k on Goldin last night was quite impressive to me, 4x the last non-gem copy to sell and I believe the highest public sale of any F1 Dynasty card period. And it's only a #/5 card with a nice patch on it but also a medium level auto and of a driver who up until today had not turned in any nice performances this season.

I also anticipated 2021 product diluting the market but seems like a lot of the 2020 cards are still being gobbled up. All markets are falling though, so we'll see in the next coming months where all of this goes.

I am more in the camp of this being an overall downward trend in the total market, nothing to do with F1 for anyone not thinking 2021 would come down at some point is crazy. There is little draw and Mick sadly hasnt done anything to prove to us he's worth the investment. Give me Lando and George all day in 2020 over Mick in 2021, Yuki helps but not crazy high on him.

[IronCladLou]

2020 wax dropping a tad

[Kracer52]

Originally Posted by dream34

Leclerc Super 1/1 just did 264k...

This makes me consider selling my Leclerc red /5. Thats a crazy number lol.

[cruiserdaddy7]

Originally Posted by IronCladLou

2020 wax dropping a tad

Yes the 2020 chrome ends lower each time for cases

[Merkle14]

Originally Posted by IronCladLou

2020 wax dropping a tad

Examples!!