The answer - Javier Baez. - Page 6

ctbinvestments · 05-15-2013, 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dasiegel

Its very early, some players heat up in the Summer, if the price is at $44 and he does heat up, that's a good sign.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ageofreason13

Plate discipline is not generally where players heat up throughout the season. I don't think he is going to go on a selective streak and suddenly bring is BB/K ration to better than 1/9. He could go on a tear, he tends to homer in bunches. There will be an immediate spike and then they will fall back a bit. Same can happen with his average if he has some better luck with the balls he puts into play.

As a Baez fan, I'd like to see him struggle for a while. It will be easier for him to adjust in A ball than for him to hit the wall at AA or AAA. Hopefully the terrible BB/K ratio will serve as a motivator to finally embrace some changes in approach and mechanics.

Quote:

Originally Posted by pickapeppa

Taveras was Taveras because he was someone who scouting reports lagged behind the numbers and it took a long time before people accepted him as an elite player. Sano cannot be Taveras.

ETA: There is a big difference between those prospects you mentioned ctbinvestments - the position they play. Being a SS gives Baez much more offensive leeway and makes him a better prospect.

Sano won't be Taveras because his plate discipline. Taveras has exceptional plate discipline. Sano will be Sano because he has lightower power. I do agree postions play into BA's prospect rankings but as far as hobby/sellability goes it doesn't mean squat.

ageofreason13 · 05-15-2013, 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ctbinvestments

Sano won't be Taveras because his plate discipline. Taveras has exceptional plate discipline. Sano will be Sano because he has lightower power. I do agree postions play into BA's prospect rankings but as far as hobby/sellability goes it doesn't mean squat.

It might to a few. I usually buy guys playing up the middle because they have more places they can move to if they can hit.

Sano gets his share of walks, but he really struggles with breaking balls when he falls behind in the count. Baez swings at the first pitch he thinks he can put the bat on. You can have all the talent in the world and not produce with this approach, just ask Hamilton about it. Baez needs to do two things: 1. work the count and get better pitches to drive, 2. Get rid of the massive hitch after he loads his hands. He has what is likely the best bat-speed in the minors, but he handicaps himself by cocking the bat towards the pitcher until it is nearly parallel with the ground before beginning his swing. I am not sold that he can do either, but if he can you are talking about a possible top 10 or better hitter in the majors.

pickapeppa · 05-15-2013, 09:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ctbinvestments

Sano won't be Taveras because his plate discipline. Taveras has exceptional plate discipline. Sano will be Sano because he has lightower power. I do agree postions play into BA's prospect rankings but as far as hobby/sellability goes it doesn't mean squat.

My post reflected my belief the poster I was quoting was suggesting Sano would blow up price-wise similar to Taveras - no analysis of skill. I wasn't comparing the players in talent or anything other than how 'known' they are.

As for position importance, it does mean something to the hobby because as you said it affects prospect rankings (as it should because position also affects the value of a player) which in turn affect the hobby.

StraWMyerS · 05-16-2013, 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ageofreason13

Plate discipline is not generally where players heat up throughout the season. I don't think he is going to go on a selective streak and suddenly bring is BB/K ration to better than 1/9. He could go on a tear, he tends to homer in bunches. There will be an immediate spike and then they will fall back a bit. Same can happen with his average if he has some better luck with the balls he puts into play.

As a Baez fan, I'd like to see him struggle for a while. It will be easier for him to adjust in A ball than for him to hit the wall at AA or AAA. Hopefully the terrible BB/K ratio will serve as a motivator to finally embrace some changes in approach and mechanics.

Not invested in Baez b/c to me he is 50/50, either a big star or washout... but I have to agree with this. This is the best possible situation rather than letting his talent carry him another year or two and then have it all unravel in the higher levels. You can't teach his tools and guys who can be a star at SS or 3B definitely don't grow on trees. Without a doubt will be interesting to see how he responds the next few months.

Cubs_rock21 · 05-16-2013, 06:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by StraWMyerS

Not invested in Baez b/c to me he is 50/50, either a big star or washout... but I have to agree with this. This is the best possible situation rather than letting his talent carry him another year or two and then have it all unravel in the higher levels. You can't teach his tools and guys who can be a star at SS or 3B definitely don't grow on trees. Without a doubt will be interesting to see how he responds the next few months.

He doesn't have to do anything in the majors to make bank on Baez. His chrome autos are at an all time low of 40.00 a piece on eBay. You buy a few, all you have to do is wait until spring training next year and they are 75-80 a piece.

Junior Griffey · 05-16-2013, 07:21 PM

All time low of $40? Guess I was one of the lucky ones buying them for $15 all day. I quit buying refractors when they hit $30.

MarshallCutler6 · 05-16-2013, 07:23 PM

It's time to trade Baez while he's still the next big thing. Guy is Brett Jackson 2.0 we have Castro at short, it's time for him to go.

BuynHiSellnLow · 05-16-2013, 08:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Junior Griffey

All time low of $40? Guess I was one of the lucky ones buying them for $15 all day. I quit buying refractors when they hit $30.

Concur - Baez base BC autos were readily available for ~$12 and his refractor autos could be had for under $20 (the average cost of the first 21 I purchased was ~$18.)

Cubs_rock21 · 05-17-2013, 12:35 AM

It's as low as it's been since his discovered potential

jasonadkins · 05-17-2013, 12:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cubs_rock21

It's as low as it's been since his discovered potential

He was picked #9 Overall in the 2011 Draft and was compared to A-Rod and Nomar by many scouts; his power potential was discovered in January of 2011, about ten months before his 2011 BCDP AUTO came out and was selling at $12 base and $18 for a Refractor. I think you're just gonna have to suck it up and admit you have no idea what you're talking about on this one. Caught red handed twice in two posts.

Cubs_rock21 · 05-17-2013, 01:24 AM

I started watching him this year in spring training, I wasn't aware of his 2011 prices. He was selling for 40.00 in february.

jasonadkins · 05-17-2013, 03:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cubs_rock21

I started watching him this year in spring training, I wasn't aware of his 2011 prices. He was selling for 40.00 in february.

Well I guess there's kind of a "My Bad" in there; no worries.

I wouldn't worry about Baez's early numbers at all, the Florida State League is pretty much the toughest leagues in all the Minors for hitters, and his OPS of .733 isn't that bad for a Shortstop, especially for his age at that level. I have Baez in waiting in both my Fantasy Leagues, and I could see him being a shade or two under Miguel Tejada one day, which is still beastly.

rcspur · 05-17-2013, 04:55 AM

Baez isn't anything like ARod. The only person close enough at the same stage to deserve that comparison is Carlos Correa.

Baez will be a good player but he reminds me more of a young Aramis Ramirez.

ctbinvestments · 05-17-2013, 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jasonadkins

Well I guess there's kind of a "My Bad" in there; no worries.

I wouldn't worry about Baez's early numbers at all, the Florida State League is pretty much the toughest leagues in all the Minors for hitters, and his OPS of .733 isn't that bad for a Shortstop, especially for his age at that level. I have Baez in waiting in both my Fantasy Leagues, and I could see him being a shade or two under Miguel Tejada one day, which is still beastly.

His numbers are fine...WHEN HE HITS THE BALL...the problem is all of his strikeouts and that is a HUGE problem regardless of the league.

ninjacookies · 05-17-2013, 12:41 PM

At $4x, no way in hell am I a buyer.

The big problem with cubs prospects, is how dismal the team is. Which detracts a LOT from the value of the cards as opposed to the same prospects if they were on a contender. I look at Rizzo, and look at all the things he was doing both last year and this year (in terms of power and production, etc) and there were pretty much only 2 to 3 times when his card values really spiked. You could EASILY pick up his bc base for $5x-$6x...even during his near all-star production runs. That is IN THE MAJORS.

That's why I just can't justify in my mind why people would pay insane amounts of Soler and Baez stuff. No offense to those guys, but putting in all in perspective, I just don't see room there...unless they are putting up Mike Trout numbers out the gate and the Cubs start actually winning.

dasiegel · 05-17-2013, 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

At $4x, no way in hell am I a buyer.

The big problem with cubs prospects, is how dismal the team is. Which detracts a LOT from the value of the cards as opposed to the same prospects if they were on a contender. I look at Rizzo, and look at all the things he was doing both last year and this year (in terms of power and production, etc) and there were pretty much only 2 to 3 times when his card values really spiked. You could EASILY pick up his bc base for $5x-$6x...even during his near all-star production runs. That is IN THE MAJORS.

That's why I just can't justify in my mind why people would pay insane amounts of Soler and Baez stuff. No offense to those guys, but putting in all in perspective, I just don't see room there...unless they are putting up Mike Trout numbers out the gate and the Cubs start actually winning.

i hear ya esp about the fact that thje cubs suck, but eventually all these prospects will make them good of course that is a longer term investment which most prospector wouldn't recommend... which is the other side of the argument, if you can buy now or soon and resell at 60 in a few months if he gets hot that might not be a bad investment.

dasiegel · 05-19-2013, 03:15 PM

just wanna point out baez has struck out once in the last 5 games! possible he's improving?

ctbinvestments · 05-22-2013, 05:13 PM

Don't want people to think I'm biased towards Baez. Baez has had a good last 10 games batting .366 but more importantly 3 BB and only 6 K's. No homeruns so maybe he's not swinging for the fences as much. I would much rather see this than a .400 4 HR 1 BB 11K week. They seem to be settling in the 40-45 range for now. I still think 35ish by Oct/Nov.

dasiegel · 05-24-2013, 02:48 PM

as has been said in the hotsheet thread, great week for Baez

Jaypers · 05-28-2013, 09:52 PM

Two-run WALKOFF 11th inning jack for The Answer.

HR # 7 on the year.

bigsmoot2 · 06-01-2013, 08:24 PM

Not too shabby tonight so far, still a few innings to go:

Javier Baez SS 5 3 5 3 0 1 6 0 0 .278

5-5 with 3 doubles, a homer and 6 RBIs.

Cubs_rock21 · 06-02-2013, 07:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigsmoot2

Not too shabby tonight so far, still a few innings to go:

Javier Baez SS 5 3 5 3 0 1 6 0 0 .278

5-5 with 3 doubles, a homer and 6 RBIs.

Just a typical Baez day like someone said.....wait....

ctbinvestments · 06-02-2013, 10:11 AM

Good day for Baez but let's not get ahead of ourselves that he's back to a top 10 prospect. Nobody has doubted he can crush the ball when he hits it. I have stated several times I am impressed with his SLG% in the FSL. The problem lies (and still lies) in his plate discipline. He did have a week ago line with only 6 K's in 10 games but seems to be back to free swinging again but did improve his BB/K ratio to 1 BB per 5 K's in May. What he is doing now will probably level his prices around $40 on his autos but that is still 33-38% below market when I said prices will drop on him. Not patting myself on the back but what happens from the current $40 range price on him who knows but my prediction back in April was accurate. If you sold at $60+ you're feeling pretty good about now...

rkuhn3 · 06-02-2013, 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigsmoot2

Not too shabby tonight so far, still a few innings to go:

Javier Baez SS 5 3 5 3 0 1 6 0 0 .278

5-5 with 3 doubles, a homer and 6 RBIs.

Turns out the Brewers minor league pitchers suck too.

jasonadkins · 06-02-2013, 11:34 AM

He hit a Homer on Friday and five hits on Sunday; just a few more solid games and he has a great chance at #1 on next Friday's Prospect Hot Sheet. That could lead to an overnight 20% price jump. Do you guys think he stands a good chance to be moved to AA after the Minor League All Star Break, or do the Cubs generally move their players along too slowly?

05-16-2013, 07:21 PM	#131
Junior Griffey Member Join Date: Sep 2011 Location: Peru, Illinois Posts: 4,781 Dustanh1	All time low of $40? Guess I was one of the lucky ones buying them for $15 all day. I quit buying refractors when they hit $30. __________________ Collecting University of Michigan alum 1/1's and other low numbered Michigan cards in football and basketball. I also collect Ken Griffey Jr. autos and some pre-war baseball.

05-16-2013, 07:23 PM	#132
MarshallCutler6 Member Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 9,922	It's time to trade Baez while he's still the next big thing. Guy is Brett Jackson 2.0 we have Castro at short, it's time for him to go. __________________ Adbert Alzolay collector. Collect cubs bears and current/former Hawkeyes

05-17-2013, 01:24 AM	#136
Cubs_rock21 Member Join Date: Dec 2010 Location: Indiana Posts: 9,751	I started watching him this year in spring training, I wasn't aware of his 2011 prices. He was selling for 40.00 in february. Last edited by Cubs_rock21; 05-17-2013 at 01:48 AM. Reason: Don't want tears

05-19-2013, 03:15 PM	#142
dasiegel Member Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 27,556	just wanna point out baez has struck out once in the last 5 games! possible he's improving? __________________ Board man. Board man gets paid.

05-24-2013, 02:48 PM	#144
dasiegel Member Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 27,556	as has been said in the hotsheet thread, great week for Baez __________________ Board man. Board man gets paid.

05-17-2013, 12:35 AM	#134
Cubs_rock21 Member Join Date: Dec 2010 Location: Indiana Posts: 9,751	It's as low as it's been since his discovered potential

05-17-2013, 04:55 AM	#138
rcspur Member Join Date: Feb 2013 Location: Greenville SC Posts: 17,451	Baez isn't anything like ARod. The only person close enough at the same stage to deserve that comparison is Carlos Correa. Baez will be a good player but he reminds me more of a young Aramis Ramirez.

05-17-2013, 12:41 PM	#140
ninjacookies Member Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: All the girls see the (boi)/ Look at his flips / Look at his kards / All they say is (oh boi). Posts: 56,983	At $4x, no way in hell am I a buyer. The big problem with cubs prospects, is how dismal the team is. Which detracts a LOT from the value of the cards as opposed to the same prospects if they were on a contender. I look at Rizzo, and look at all the things he was doing both last year and this year (in terms of power and production, etc) and there were pretty much only 2 to 3 times when his card values really spiked. You could EASILY pick up his bc base for $5x-$6x...even during his near all-star production runs. That is IN THE MAJORS. That's why I just can't justify in my mind why people would pay insane amounts of Soler and Baez stuff. No offense to those guys, but putting in all in perspective, I just don't see room there...unless they are putting up Mike Trout numbers out the gate and the Cubs start actually winning.

05-22-2013, 05:13 PM	#143
ctbinvestments Member Join Date: Jul 2011 Location: Charlotte, NC Posts: 6,504 ctbinvestments	Don't want people to think I'm biased towards Baez. Baez has had a good last 10 games batting .366 but more importantly 3 BB and only 6 K's. No homeruns so maybe he's not swinging for the fences as much. I would much rather see this than a .400 4 HR 1 BB 11K week. They seem to be settling in the 40-45 range for now. I still think 35ish by Oct/Nov.

05-28-2013, 09:52 PM	#145
Jaypers Bowman Scout Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: IL Posts: 51,617 cardboardconglomerate	Two-run WALKOFF 11th inning jack for The Answer. HR # 7 on the year. __________________ Impervious to baiting.

06-01-2013, 08:24 PM	#146
bigsmoot2 Member Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: MN Posts: 5,087 bigbass21	Not too shabby tonight so far, still a few innings to go: Javier Baez SS 5 3 5 3 0 1 6 0 0 .278 5-5 with 3 doubles, a homer and 6 RBIs. __________________ FAN OF: CHICAGO CUBS & DENVER BRONCOS

06-02-2013, 10:11 AM	#148
ctbinvestments Member Join Date: Jul 2011 Location: Charlotte, NC Posts: 6,504 ctbinvestments	Good day for Baez but let's not get ahead of ourselves that he's back to a top 10 prospect. Nobody has doubted he can crush the ball when he hits it. I have stated several times I am impressed with his SLG% in the FSL. The problem lies (and still lies) in his plate discipline. He did have a week ago line with only 6 K's in 10 games but seems to be back to free swinging again but did improve his BB/K ratio to 1 BB per 5 K's in May. What he is doing now will probably level his prices around $40 on his autos but that is still 33-38% below market when I said prices will drop on him. Not patting myself on the back but what happens from the current $40 range price on him who knows but my prediction back in April was accurate. If you sold at $60+ you're feeling pretty good about now... Last edited by ctbinvestments; 06-02-2013 at 11:33 AM.

06-02-2013, 11:34 AM	#150
jasonadkins Banned Join Date: Nov 2010 Location: Las Vegas, NV Posts: 3,233 stripsidecomics	He hit a Homer on Friday and five hits on Sunday; just a few more solid games and he has a great chance at #1 on next Friday's Prospect Hot Sheet. That could lead to an overnight 20% price jump. Do you guys think he stands a good chance to be moved to AA after the Minor League All Star Break, or do the Cubs generally move their players along too slowly?