2023 Bowman Draft Pre-Order 11/14

[PoPCulture]

Now I’m glad I’ve held onto all $120 of my PSA Loupe credit. I might be able to buy a Super Jumbo Pack for free and hit a $10 auto. I’m not sure if that is considered a win or a loss…

[VandyCards]

My PC guy is on the CL, and seemingly in every insert set.


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[zakcollects]

Originally Posted by VandyCards

My PC guy is on the CL, and seemingly in every insert set.


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Enrique Bradfield? Exciting prospect, excited to see how they develop him.

[Slvnumber2]

Originally Posted by notoriousrmb

Who cares what Fanatics wants - buyers have the ability to buy or not buy as they see fit based on their budget.

What Fanatics wants is their problem, if their idea fails its solely on them.

Good points and amazing how some other people are crying in this thread. If you don’t like the product, number of prospects, cost of a vacation, versus a box.. that is on each person.

Personally I open for fun, and i sell stuff at shows and eBay/FB and Dave up cash to buy some jumbos and super jumbos… if I hit a big auto I can sell and buy more of what I collect in vintage cards, and singles I can sell at shows and make back a chunk of my money. Will do the same with 2024 Topps and 2024 Heritage which are cheaper and strong rookie classes.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Slvnumber2

Good points and amazing how some other people are crying in this thread. If you don’t like the product, number of prospects, cost of a vacation, versus a box.. that is on each person.

Personally I open for fun, and i sell stuff at shows and eBay/FB and Dave up cash to buy some jumbos and super jumbos… if I hit a big auto I can sell and buy more of what I collect in vintage cards, and singles I can sell at shows and make back a chunk of my money. Will do the same with 2024 Topps and 2024 Heritage which are cheaper and strong rookie classes.

Sounds like you open to flip because you can’t afford to keep what you open.

[Slvnumber2]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Sounds like you open to flip because you can’t afford to keep what you open.

No. I collect graded Mantles, Aaron, Mays, Bench, Cobb, Ryan… cards. I set aside a little bit of profits $4-5k and get a few jumbos and a few super jumbos smd we rip them Christmas morning for fun with the family. If we hit something great and if not we have fun - whole family from wife to kids opens stuff.

I don’t drink, hit bars, smoke or do drugs, so spending some extra play money on cards and golf is my fun. The way I look at it don’t spend money you cannot afford to lose or should go to bills… To each their own.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Sounds like you open to flip because you can’t afford to keep what you open.

Originally Posted by Slvnumber2

No. I collect graded Mantles, Aaron, Mays, Bench, Cobb, Ryan… cards. I set aside a little bit of profits $4-5k and get a few jumbos and a few super jumbos smd we rip them Christmas morning for fun with the family. If we hit something great and if not we have fun - whole family from wife to kids opens stuff.

I don’t drink, hit bars, smoke or do drugs, so spending some extra play money on cards and golf is my fun. The way I look at it don’t spend money you cannot afford to lose or should go to bills… To each their own.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

No Crews.
No Jenkins.
No Schanuel.
No Teel.
No Wilken.
No Nimmala.
No Lombard, Jr.
No Aidan Miller.
No Bryce Matthews

So missing 9/22 first round bats, including two of the top four, and the significant power bats (Wilken, Miller).

But I'm sure the carnival barkers crushing 300mg of caffeine from Bang Energy drinks will be saying,

Bro
You buy this because you never know who's going to be a big name
It could be someone in the fifth round bro
Someone will break out bro
Pujols was a thirteenth rounder
Bro
Please buy
Bro

This had to be a draft and follow, right?

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

If wax pricing correlated with singles pricing, you wouldn’t see a lot of complaining. We’d be back in the atmosphere we had in 2018.

What I was getting at is it’s hard to determine how well these products are actually selling. Ever rising prices don’t necessarily correlate to ever rising demand. I’d bet money that for nearly any given product, more than half of it is sitting unopened in storage.

I’ve said this previously, but price deflation for wax would be devastating for Fanatics. Deflation begets more deflation as consumer confidence and demand declines. You’ve seen this with singles. Grails like the Brady Champ Ticket come up for sale a dozen times a year now with each sale less than the last.

We are screwed...and I'm counting Fanatics in the we.

The 2018 atmosphere was great, but it sure feels like we are many years of hobby shrinkage away from getting back to that point. It looks like Fanatics is going to milk as much money as they can out of the hobby before it dies and needs to be reborn. Unless they get out there and start scooping up singles.

rwperu's estimated price to be on par with 2018: $2200
Actual price: $3600

We'll see what this goes for in six weeks or so. Looks like Bowman chrome is going for $2900 on eBay, but that is a 12 box hobby case. Where did those start?

I don't know who is sitting on all of that product, but I sure hope they run out of money and space soon. It can only be propped up so long before it pops. We've seen it with singles. It's going to happen with wax. Even the new stuff.

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by BBases31

While he has a good approach and a a good attitude that doesn’t take away from the fact that basically (1) in order for topps to sell boxes or cases they need to find enough people that are perfectly fine taking thousands of dollars in losses. And they’ll need more people entering the hobby or wkth this then people leaving the hobby that we’re not ok with this

(2) for all the people ripping for fun surely they would have more fun with a better ROI ri resonabke box prices. Here he already stated he flips singles so with a better ROI he can get a better return and buy mroe boxes for next Christmas or more presents for kids etc.

(3) just Because people can afford to take a 2k loss on a case doesn’t mean they wouldn’t rather take a $500 loss on said case.

(4) more simply put for all the people ripping purely for fun their is a direct relationship between their ROI on said rip and goal amount of fun they have

[Jolten Joe]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

We are screwed...and I'm counting Fanatics in the we.

The 2018 atmosphere was great, but it sure feels like we are many years of hobby shrinkage away from getting back to that point. It looks like Fanatics is going to milk as much money as they can out of the hobby before it dies and needs to be reborn. Unless they get out there and start scooping up singles.

rwperu's estimated price to be on par with 2018: $2200
Actual price: $3600

We'll see what this goes for in six weeks or so. Looks like Bowman chrome is going for $2900 on eBay, but that is a 12 box hobby case. Where did those start?

I don't know who is sitting on all of that product, but I sure hope they run out of money and space soon. It can only be propped up so long before it pops. We've seen it with singles. It's going to happen with wax. Even the new stuff.

That is the same thing said about $500-$600 Bowman Chrome Sapphire boxes and look where boxes are today. I remember people crying and declaring those boxes would be $350-$400 all day long once the dust settled.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Slvnumber2

No. I collect graded Mantles, Aaron, Mays, Bench, Cobb, Ryan… cards. I set aside a little bit of profits $4-5k and get a few jumbos and a few super jumbos smd we rip them Christmas morning for fun with the family. If we hit something great and if not we have fun - whole family from wife to kids opens stuff.

I don’t drink, hit bars, smoke or do drugs, so spending some extra play money on cards and golf is my fun. The way I look at it don’t spend money you cannot afford to lose or should go to bills… To each their own.

So you rip to flip in order to keep collecting what you actually enjoy. Ripping them with your family doesn’t change the fact that you’re not keeping what you’re opening because you need the money to buy more cards.

This model is not sustainable at these prices. It’s a bad bet and bad entertainment. Most of these boxes now are cardboard bags of heroin that give you a 10 minute high, if that.

[solt0131]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

So you rip to flip in order to keep collecting what you actually enjoy. Ripping them with your family doesn’t change the fact that you’re not keeping what you’re opening because you need the money to buy more cards.

This model is not sustainable at these prices. It’s a bad bet and bad entertainment. Most of these boxes now are cardboard bags of heroin that give you a 10 minute high, if that.

Most people sell immediately after ripping a new product because the values are highest right out of the gate. They would rather get $25 for a card now than $10 a month later.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by solt0131

Most people sell immediately after ripping a new product because the values are highest right out of the gate. They would rather get $25 for a card now than $10 a month later.

Irrelevant to the conversation.

[90skid]

I know we have the never ending debate over Joe consumer buying their own boxes vs breakers.

I think the reality of a product like this now a days falls into 3 categories:

A) Spend $3,000 on your own boxes/case and hope you get "anything" good from it. If you are a collector you always hope to get something good from a team/player you want, obviously. This is your "F U money" and you don't really care if you lose it. IMO this is not what a collectors choice would be.

B) You really want a Paul Skenes Auto (or Max Clark or whatever), so you spend $3,000 on PYT breaks and get a heaping pile of a single teams cards out of X amount of cases. Statistically you have a much better chance of getting the auto you want, but you still gotta be very lucky. Maybe you'll hit it on the very first break, or maybe you'll hit it on the 20th break.... If you get the card you want you then begin the process of flipping all the other crap you don't want to make some of your costs back.

C) Wait for card you really want to show up on eBay and either fork over the ridiculous $3,000 or just perhaps you'll get it for cheaper and just save yourself a mountain of entertainment (breaks) and/or disappointment. But ultimately if you are a collector you get what you want.


The choice is yours. I wonder what breakers will charge for the Expos PYT spots? They get bonus $$ right there for a whole team/spot purely for the SSP card. Way to go Topps/Fanatics.

[JeremyNick]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

How will you determine if 2023 Draft sells? How many singles do you need to see hit the market?

What I was getting at is it’s hard to determine how well these products are actually selling. Ever rising prices don’t necessarily correlate to ever rising demand. I’d bet money that for nearly any given product, more than half of it is sitting unopened in storage.

I don’t think we should consider breakers ripping as the products selling either.

They aren’t selling boxes or cases, the are selling teams and players. If people are buying and ripping boxes or cases, that’s a big long term issue for Fanatics. They don’t see it that way, but that’s because they have the vision of a mole.

[Goldie]

Obviously time will tell on all products, but I do feel like there's a lot more "value" (very stretched use of that term) here related to 2023 BC. The 23 BC checklist is fairly thin for present value, whereas this product has some serious names who could move some serious product. Now, will you hit a Langford auto in your case? Incredibly unlikely. But I feel there are enough guys in here that are already going to feel pretty desirable based on what they've already done in the minors and their pedigree to lead to much more of this being purchased (even if it's watered down) relative to other releases with similar ballpark price tags.

[Asian62150]

Originally Posted by 90skid

I wonder what breakers will charge for the Expos PYT spots? They get bonus $$ right there for a whole team/spot purely for the SSP card. Way to go Topps/Fanatics.

They should make the Expos part of the Nationals spot.

[Stech36]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Irrelevant to the conversation.

If you get everything listed at release, you’re probably at $2500 value minimum per case.

Also, flipping to buy isn’t necessarily because you can’t afford to keep everything. If I buy a case of flagship, I have no desire to keep 10 base sets and a gold of Tyler O’Neill.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Stech36

If you get everything listed at release, you’re probably at $2500 value minimum per case.

Also, flipping to buy isn’t necessarily because you can’t afford to keep everything. If I buy a case of flagship, I have no desire to keep 10 base sets and a gold of Tyler O’Neill.

Please note that he did not mention he was keeping any of the cards he ripped. He sells the cards so he can collect more vintage. That’s just gambling and flipping. It’s not collecting.

That model is not sustainable over time when the EV is so poor. Especially as we see continued legalization of sports betting.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Please note that he did not mention he was keeping any of the cards he ripped. He sells the cards so he can collect more vintage. That’s just gambling and flipping. It’s not collecting.

That model is not sustainable over time when the EV is so poor. Especially as we see continued legalization of sports betting.

He did NOT say he sells the cards SO he can collect vintage. He did NOT say he can't afford to rip and keep the cards. He sells because he does not want the cards, not because he has to. That's what you don't understand. People can sell things even when they don't need to. So the model doesn't need to be sustainable for someone like him. He specifically said he spends only money that he is fine with losing. That statement alone proves he does not need to sell the cards to sustain his collection. He simply enjoys the rip, but not necessarily the cards themselves. So he sells them. He doesn't need the money to further his collection, but that doesn't mean he can't use it to buy cards he wants.

I'm like him in many regards, except for one. I don't even bother to sell the things I open. While I don't open all that much wax, I do buy several boxes a month for my family and I to open together just for fun. My PC is 100% Reds, so the vast majority of what I open is not part of my PC. But I don't care to sell it, so it goes in a box and just sits there. I lose 100% of the money I spend on opening boxes. And I'm fine with that.

[Stech36]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Please note that he did not mention he was keeping any of the cards he ripped. He sells the cards so he can collect more vintage. That’s just gambling and flipping. It’s not collecting.

That model is not sustainable over time when the EV is so poor. Especially as we see continued legalization of sports betting.

Yes good point,

I do that to keep the collect the cards I want to keep

[Bcr]

Ripping is gambling. People can try and justify it however they want but that's what it is.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Bcr

Ripping is gambling. People can try and justify it however they want but that's what it is.

Gambling is fun. But if you’re not keeping any of the rip, and the gamble is a bad one, how long are you going to continue doing so?

I suppose the addiction to wax is real. But there are so many better avenues to gamble. $6k on a case of Draft? Or a $6k bankroll at a $25 craps table? Or $6k spread out on an NFL Sunday?

[scfdff]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Please note that he did not mention he was keeping any of the cards he ripped. He sells the cards so he can collect more vintage. That’s just gambling and flipping. It’s not collecting.



That model is not sustainable over time when the EV is so poor. Especially as we see continued legalization of sports betting.

This is such a weird way to do things. "I spend $3500 on a product, then flip it for a huge loss so I can buy what I actually collect". Why not just spend that $3500 on what you collect and get more for your money

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