Call your shot!!! Pick ONE player who you think will break out this season! - Page 6

daeve · 02-15-2023, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

Career year in a contract year with the world champs. Ive watched him for years. He played out of his mind (for him) in 2022. I just don't see him replicating that again this year.

He didn't really, though. I think I posted this FG excerpt here after he signed in Chicago, but can't recall.

Quote:

Because while there are plenty of holes in his offensive game, he hits the snot out of the baseball, plain and simple.

The above comparisons to Iglesias and Simmons might make sense from a total offensive contribution perspective, but Swanson is nothing at all like them at the plate. He’s not a slap-hitting contact fiend; he’s basically the opposite of that, in fact. For the past three years, he’s been stinging the ball on contact, posting barrel rates above 10% in each year, ranking in the top 15% in the game. Some of that is because he puts a ton of balls into the air — you can’t get credit for a barrel if you don’t hit it in the air — but he also makes a lot of loud contact.

Over the years, Swanson has gotten better and better at getting to his power. That’s how you end up with a higher isolated power in 2022, the year of the new dead ball, than in 2019, the peak of the rabbit ball era. He’s hit more home runs in his past two seasons over a combined 1,349 plate appearances than in his previous 2,038 plate appearances in a higher-offense era. Group 2020 in with New Dansby, and that’s 40 homers in his first 1,774 plate appearances followed by 62 in the most recent 1,613 trips to the plate.

ZiPS buys into Swanson’s newfound pop, projecting him for a slugging percentage nearly 20 points above his career mark in 2023. It sees him roughly the same way I do, as an above-average bat despite his early-career struggles:

The way you play above your expectations is by playing smarter. He's learned how to get to more of his power by attacking more of his favorite pitch.

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Fastballs? Oh yeah, definitely fastballs. Every hitter in baseball would prefer to see fastballs to secondary pitches, but Swanson is an extreme version of that. Over the past three years, he’s been downright excellent against both four-seamers and sinkers, roughly matching Pete Alonso’s production against those two pitches. That’s home run champion Pete Alonso, career 138 wRC+ Pete Alonso, one of the best power hitters in the game. Swanson looks nothing like Alonso, but when it comes to smashing heaters, they’re shockingly similar.

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He already sees a metric ton of sliders — 26.5% last year — and still manages to hunt enough fastballs to hit for power. In fact, I think that has a lot to do with his low walk rate. He swings at early fastballs in the zone very aggressively, because he knows his own strengths and weaknesses. It might cut down on his chances of walking — you can’t walk if you don’t take pitches — but you can’t make an omelet without cracking a few eggs, and Swanson is only making omelets out of fastballs.

^That right there is why I think what we saw is sustainable. He already sees so many sliders/junk and has adjusted to that by being aggressive in counts where he should see fastballs.

daeve · 02-15-2023, 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yaga

Hiura is one of those players that I just find strange. Sometimes he looks unstoppable and sometimes he looks like he doesn't even belong in MLB

Same thing happened to Carter Kieboom, they struggle to hit pitches within the strike zone. Not a good marker for success, unfortunately. And it's tough to pick out early, usually you won't see it until AAA or MLB. Basically once pitchers' stuff is so good that even when you know it's a strike you will swing through it.

Yaga · 02-15-2023, 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by daeve

Same thing happened to Carter Kieboom, they struggle to hit pitches within the strike zone. Not a good marker for success, unfortunately. And it's tough to pick out early, usually you won't see it until AAA or MLB. Basically once pitchers' stuff is so good that even when you know it's a strike you will swing through it.

Oh interesting!! I thought Hiura had BEAST written all over him... and some days he does lol.

LVDan · 02-15-2023, 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yaga

Oh interesting!! I thought Hiura had BEAST written all over him... and some days he does lol.

Clock is ticking big time for him, in Milwaukee at least. Not only do they have a very good left handed version of what he had hoped to become at 1b(Rowdy)but he'll have a bit of competition from a few guys in line for DH ABs like Winker and Contreras(on days he doesn't catch). They also brought in former Marlin Brian Anderson and former Indian Owen Miller- both right handed. Also fighting for roster spots and ABs will be Abraham Toro and Mike Brousseau.
Make or break spring for him maybe.

eye4talent · 02-15-2023, 02:18 PM

2023 All-Breakout Team (No rookies, No established stars)

First Team

C Cal Raleigh
1B Andrew Vaughn
2B Brendan Rodgers
3B Jose Miranda
SS Wander Franco
LF Bryan De La Cruz
CF Riley Greene
RF Jake McCarthy
DH Juan Yepez

SP Hunter Greene
SP Tyler Glasnow
SP Jesus Luzardo
SP Dustin May
SP Nick Lodolo
CL Andres Munoz

Second Team

C MJ Melendez
1B Alex Kirilloff
2B Luis Garcia
3B Alec Bohm
SS CJ Abrams
LF Kerry Carpenter
CF Alek Thomas
RF Seiya Suzuki
DH Vinny Pasquantino

SP Reid Detmers
SP Edward Cabrera
SP MacKenzie Gore
SP Ranger Suarez
SP Graham Ashcraft
CL Alexis Diaz

Missed the cut:

David Villar, Jesus Sanchez, Roansy Contreras, Spencer Torkelson, Kiebert Ruiz,
Josiah Gray

babybull · 02-15-2023, 02:19 PM

Nolan Gorman

eye4talent · 02-15-2023, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LVDan

Yup, but still quite under the radar. He’s got significant power but also very adept at driving the ball where it’s pitched. Hes got some early Rizzo in him.

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I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see Lowe continue to get better, but 2022 was his breakout. Up until last year, he was a Tampa castoff struggling to establish himself. Now he's a Silver Slugger with an .850 OPS season.

But I guess that's where the fun in this discussion is: What constitutes a breakout?

eye4talent · 02-15-2023, 02:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by babybull

Nolan Gorman

Gorman will be a star. But he needs a spot to play.

Frankly, the Cardinals lineup is practically one collective breakout candidate.

Bunny Hop · 02-15-2023, 02:26 PM

Hunter Greene broke out my wallet in 2022.

ScooterD · 02-15-2023, 02:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LVDan

Clock is ticking big time for him, in Milwaukee at least. Not only do they have a very good left handed version of what he had hoped to become at 1b(Rowdy)but he'll have a bit of competition from a few guys in line for DH ABs like Winker and Contreras(on days he doesn't catch). They also brought in former Marlin Brian Anderson and former Indian Owen Miller- both right handed. Also fighting for roster spots and ABs will be Abraham Toro and Mike Brousseau.
Make or break spring for him maybe.

Kieboom came out of HS and consistently hit at every level in the minors for 4 years.

Hiura was possibly the most polished college bat in his draft class, and he continued through the minors and his call up season.

While it’s possible that Kieboom has a mental or physical block to hitting MLB-level pitching, Hiura has done it for a short time - just seems to have forgotten how.

Silent George · 02-15-2023, 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eye4talent

Gorman will be a star. But he needs a spot to play.

Frankly, the Cardinals lineup is practically one collective breakout candidate.

I don't know why, but everyone is missing the biggest breakout star they have. Maybe the biggest in MLB. Nowhere to be found in this thread.

LVDan · 02-15-2023, 02:32 PM

Nootbaar looks legit and his cards have a decent amount of breakout built in already too.

eye4talent · 02-15-2023, 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Silent George

I don't know why, but everyone is missing the biggest breakout star they have. Maybe the biggest in MLB. Nowhere to be found in this thread.

You mean Gorman? Or Nootbar? Donovan? I’m partial to Yepez.

(Walker doesn’t count because he’s a rookie.)

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RookiesInTheRaw · 02-15-2023, 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Silent George

I don't know why, but everyone is missing the biggest breakout star they have. Maybe the biggest in MLB. Nowhere to be found in this thread.

Perhaps because Im a lifelong birds fan, but I am partial to Tommy E. I can see the vesters siding with Tyler O'Neil tho hoping for a breakthru

CollectKep26 · 02-15-2023, 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

He’s already dealing with renewed soreness in that wrist.

Not exactly...those comments about soreness were from about a month ago.

Yesterday, Derek Falvey's comments on AK were "No setbacks, no concern" and "he's in a great spot. Our strength guys said he's probably in as good a spot as they've seen him coming into camp, where he's at. The early return on swinging is very positive." Source is Do-Hyoung Park's Twitter...

LVDan · 02-15-2023, 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eye4talent

2023 All-Breakout Team (No rookies, No established stars)

First Team

C Cal Raleigh
1B Andrew Vaughn
2B Brendan Rodgers
3B Jose Miranda
SS Wander Franco
LF Bryan De La Cruz
CF Riley Greene
RF Jake McCarthy
DH Juan Yepez

SP Hunter Greene
SP Tyler Glasnow
SP Jesus Luzardo
SP Dustin May
SP Nick Lodolo
CL Andres Munoz

Second Team

C MJ Melendez
1B Alex Kirilloff
2B Luis Garcia
3B Alec Bohm
SS CJ Abrams
LF Kerry Carpenter
CF Alek Thomas
RF Seiya Suzuki
DH Vinny Pasquantino

SP Reid Detmers
SP Edward Cabrera
SP MacKenzie Gore
SP Ranger Suarez
SP Graham Ashcraft
CL Alexis Diaz

Missed the cut:

David Villar, Jesus Sanchez, Roansy Contreras, Spencer Torkelson, Kiebert Ruiz,
Josiah Gray

Nice list eye- is this yours?
Im encouraged to see a lot of guys I've targeted this winter on here and also encouraged that I have quite a few targets not on either team or mentioned in this thread!

eye4talent · 02-15-2023, 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LVDan

Nice list eye- is this yours?
Im encouraged to see a lot of guys I've targeted this winter on here and also encouraged that I have quite a few targets not on either team or mentioned in this thread!

Yeah, I just threw this together. I don’t exactly believe they’ll all break out, but there sure are a lot of candidates going into this season.

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CollectKep26 · 02-15-2023, 02:51 PM

Aside from Kirilloff and Miranda who has already been mentioned, keeping an eye on Trevor Larnach as well this season.

LVDan · 02-15-2023, 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CollectKep26

Aside from Kirilloff and Miranda who has already been mentioned, keeping an eye on Trevor Larnach as well this season.

grabbed a couple Larnach cards yesterday!

Yaga · 02-15-2023, 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eye4talent

2023 All-Breakout Team (No rookies, No established stars)

First Team

C Cal Raleigh
1B Andrew Vaughn
2B Brendan Rodgers
3B Jose Miranda
SS Wander Franco
LF Bryan De La Cruz
CF Riley Greene
RF Jake McCarthy
DH Juan Yepez

SP Hunter Greene
SP Tyler Glasnow
SP Jesus Luzardo
SP Dustin May
SP Nick Lodolo
CL Andres Munoz

Second Team

C MJ Melendez
1B Alex Kirilloff
2B Luis Garcia
3B Alec Bohm
SS CJ Abrams
LF Kerry Carpenter
CF Alek Thomas
RF Seiya Suzuki
DH Vinny Pasquantino

SP Reid Detmers
SP Edward Cabrera
SP MacKenzie Gore
SP Ranger Suarez
SP Graham Ashcraft
CL Alexis Diaz

Missed the cut:

David Villar, Jesus Sanchez, Roansy Contreras, Spencer Torkelson, Kiebert Ruiz,
Josiah Gray

Definitely some good candidates there and I'm happy to see Brandan Rodgers on it!

Yaga · 02-15-2023, 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LVDan

grabbed a couple Larnach cards yesterday!

Ohhhhhhhh right Larnach. He was on my to get list back in the fall. I grabbed a couple of things and then forgot all about him hahaha

CollectKep26 · 02-15-2023, 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LVDan

grabbed a couple Larnach cards yesterday!

A nice Sapphire Orange Refractor and a TC Update Blue Refractor, right? Thanks for the purchase!

LVDan · 02-15-2023, 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CollectKep26

A nice Sapphire Orange Refractor and a TC Update Blue Refractor, right? Thanks for the purchase!

Indeed-thanks for the fair pricing!

eye4talent · 02-15-2023, 03:12 PM

I’m anti-Larnach. Not that he won’t be a serviceable player for a few years. But, I don’t know, I see a David Peralta ceiling.

Again, serviceable. Just not terribly exciting.

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LVDan · 02-15-2023, 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eye4talent

I’m anti-Larnach. Not that he won’t be a serviceable player for a few years. But, I don’t know, I see a David Peralta ceiling.

Again, serviceable. Just not terribly exciting.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Maybe more power and less average…
Joc P. ?
no arguments here but then again we’re talking about a guy with a lot of cards of Jeff Springs.

02-15-2023, 02:32 PM	#137
LVDan Member Join Date: Jun 2017 Posts: 17,573	Nootbaar looks legit and his cards have a decent amount of breakout built in already too. __________________ So we cheated and we lied and we tested. And we never failed to fail; it was the easiest thing to do.

02-15-2023, 02:18 PM	#130
eye4talent Member Join Date: Dec 2018 Location: Monterey, CA Posts: 7,922 eye4talent eye4talent	2023 All-Breakout Team (No rookies, No established stars) First Team C Cal Raleigh 1B Andrew Vaughn 2B Brendan Rodgers 3B Jose Miranda SS Wander Franco LF Bryan De La Cruz CF Riley Greene RF Jake McCarthy DH Juan Yepez SP Hunter Greene SP Tyler Glasnow SP Jesus Luzardo SP Dustin May SP Nick Lodolo CL Andres Munoz Second Team C MJ Melendez 1B Alex Kirilloff 2B Luis Garcia 3B Alec Bohm SS CJ Abrams LF Kerry Carpenter CF Alek Thomas RF Seiya Suzuki DH Vinny Pasquantino SP Reid Detmers SP Edward Cabrera SP MacKenzie Gore SP Ranger Suarez SP Graham Ashcraft CL Alexis Diaz Missed the cut: David Villar, Jesus Sanchez, Roansy Contreras, Spencer Torkelson, Kiebert Ruiz, Josiah Gray

02-15-2023, 02:19 PM	#131
babybull Member Join Date: Mar 2010 Location: Illinois Posts: 4,856 lancers31	Nolan Gorman

02-15-2023, 02:26 PM	#134
Bunny Hop Member Join Date: Dec 2022 Location: Big City Posts: 1,820	Hunter Greene broke out my wallet in 2022.

02-15-2023, 02:51 PM	#143
CollectKep26 Member Join Date: Sep 2020 Posts: 170	Aside from Kirilloff and Miranda who has already been mentioned, keeping an eye on Trevor Larnach as well this season.

02-15-2023, 03:12 PM	#149
eye4talent Member Join Date: Dec 2018 Location: Monterey, CA Posts: 7,922 eye4talent eye4talent	I’m anti-Larnach. Not that he won’t be a serviceable player for a few years. But, I don’t know, I see a David Peralta ceiling. Again, serviceable. Just not terribly exciting. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro