Observations on the current state of the hobby from a show this weekend - Page 6

vacardsguy · 06-06-2022, 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by solt0131

Did anyone hear anything about the two day show in Winchester, VA?

I did not go, but am friendly with a guy who set up a few tables. He said it was horribly slow on both days. Very little foot traffic and even less sales. He assumed it was due maybe to the Chantilly show coming up and then the National. People may be focused in those larger shows and not this one. Who knows.

Raleigh504 · 06-06-2022, 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vacardsguy

I did not go, but am friendly with a guy who set up a few tables. He said it was horribly slow on both days. Very little foot traffic and even less sales. He assumed it was due maybe to the Chantilly show coming up and then the National. People may be focused in those larger shows and not this one. Who knows.

I have heard many not going to the National this year as in years past. I can see it being weather, card market being down, and the overall economy.

123precision · 06-06-2022, 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WizardofOz1982

Matt Canaday (GriffeyGuy) runs 170 table shows every other month in Springdale, AR. He's got one this weekend with 175 tables in Tulsa, OK.

Kansas City has a quarterly 130 table show going.

OKC had a 100+ table show this past weekend.

We have all kinds of smaller, more frequent, 50-70 table shows going pretty much every weekend somewhere.

I don't know about further west but surely if we can get those kinds of shows, with people flying in from all over including both coasts, going in Podunk America then it's possible elsewhere west of the Mississippi other than just California.

I actually go to a little bitty 20 table show in AR regularly to see one dealer who specializes in '90s inserts. It's generally the only show he does. He is online but it's much more fun to go dig through boxes of 90s stuff than it is to hope he lists what I'm looking for on Facebook or send him a list and have him fill and ship what he has.

The "Bentonville" card show has really grown. It outgrew the hotel it was at. The Springdale location has a good amount of space and parking.

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BiggNuttz · 06-07-2022, 02:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

The amount of modern basketball on these show tables...is disgusting!

I always think back to one of the most eye opening statistics I have ever seen from Ken Goldin, which although originally posted back in early 2021, still holds true today:

There has been more 2019 Panini Prizm Basketball graded by PSA (602,000 cards as of today) than every single soccer card ever graded by PSA (469,000 cards as of today).

Just let that sink in and simmer in your brain.....

rwperu34 · 06-07-2022, 03:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vacardsguy

I did not go, but am friendly with a guy who set up a few tables. He said it was horribly slow on both days. Very little foot traffic and even less sales. He assumed it was due maybe to the Chantilly show coming up and then the National. People may be focused in those larger shows and not this one. Who knows.

Do shows normally slow down, pick up, or remain flat in summer?

solt0131 · 06-07-2022, 06:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Do shows normally slow down, pick up, or remain flat in summer?

Very slow. About two weeks before The National, the hype starts up and then after the National, there is nothing until after Labor Day when football starts up and the NBA preseason hype starts up again.

noaskiecards · 06-07-2022, 06:49 AM

Not super related but I recently sold stocks on fidelity and a week later I still can't cash it out. It used to take 3 days at most. I wonder if we are entering a liquidity crisis or maybe I just need to call them lol
We have more debt than ever before and every month or quarter we need one thing - cash - to pay off debt.
People can't refinance into the future anymore by pushing debt down the road forever due to high rates or they can but much higher interest.
The fed is trying to cool inflation by making the dollar stronger essentially.
Not a good time to be in risk assets so I can see card prices dropping much more, especially for over hyped guys. Not a good time to have tons of inventory and when everyone sells at once due to panic then prices become a falling knife.

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fulltritty · 06-07-2022, 07:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raleigh504

I have heard many not going to the National this year as in years past. I can see it being weather, card market being down, and the overall economy.

I'm curious to see how many regret buying their VIP tickets early. The autograph guests are just awful this year. TriStar did a horrible job compared to the first show they had in Atlantic City.

Captain1302 · 06-07-2022, 07:12 AM

No doubt the economy is the biggest issue for cards in my opinion. I just went to the Nashville show couple weeks ago and it was horrible. Very few deals to be made and most dealers were at or above ebay comps. I was mainly looking for Bowman Chrome baseball prospects and 90's inserts. I spent $137 total.

Boo · 06-07-2022, 07:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fulltritty

I'm curious to see how many regret buying their VIP tickets early. The autograph guests are just awful this year. TriStar did a horrible job compared to the first show they had in Atlantic City.

Raleigh504 · 06-07-2022, 07:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by noaskiecards

Not super related but I recently sold stocks on fidelity and a week later I still can't cash it out. It used to take 3 days at most. I wonder if we are entering a liquidity crisis or maybe I just need to call them lol
We have more debt than ever before and every month or quarter we need one thing - cash - to pay off debt.
People can't refinance into the future anymore by pushing debt down the road forever due to high rates or they can but much higher interest.
The fed is trying to cool inflation by making the dollar stronger essentially.
Not a good time to be in risk assets so I can see card prices dropping much more, especially for over hyped guys. Not a good time to have tons of inventory and when everyone sells at once due to panic then prices become a falling knife.

Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Agreed, I think the higher pop stuff, players who were hot for some time before are starting to get down to normal prices. Vintage, low pop cards (not just graded ones, but overall production) of superstars/HOF are doing fine. It is just the super modern mainly isn't selling like it once did. Just think it is smarter buyers tagged with buying less items due to the economy and wanting to keep more cash is leading to prices to level off.

I can see it go "crazy" again in a few years once this all passes. Not like it was during COVID, but definitely stars cards gaining value compared to today's prices.

Raleigh504 · 06-07-2022, 07:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain1302

No doubt the economy is the biggest issue for cards in my opinion. I just went to the Nashville show couple weeks ago and it was horrible. Very few deals to be made and most dealers were at or above ebay comps. I was mainly looking for Bowman Chrome baseball prospects and 90's inserts. I spent $137 total.

Yea, people tend to hold on to cards they bought when it was higher vs. taking a loss and using that money for something else. I get it, but don't understand why a lot of dealers are over comps and wonder why they don't get sales.

I am setting up the first time this weekend and slowly (waiting on some pricing stickers to come from Amazon) pricing things out this week to bring. Everything is at eBay or less. Only things that will have "random" prices are items that don't sell often or if I was the last one to buy it.

mcpheely · 06-07-2022, 07:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raleigh504

I have heard many not going to the National this year as in years past. I can see it being weather, card market being down, and the overall economy.

Weather? Please elaborate.

k13 · 06-07-2022, 07:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by solt0131

Did anyone go to any shows this weekend? If so, what were your thoughts?

Was at the big sports expo in Toronto.
Did ok but felt it was worse than 2014.
Supposedly it was 5x better in November.

Triple B · 06-07-2022, 08:13 AM

We just had our version of The National here in Toronto (The Toronto Sports Card Expo) and the place was absolutely PACKED. Dealers were buying at 70%-80% comps (the ones I sold to, anyway) but the issue was buying. There were some deals but you could tell who bought in at the spike as prices were nuts with very little flexibility. Dealers who brought stuff that people had no interest in suffered. There were quite a few set up selling stuff that made me think "what a waste of a weekend for that dude".

PSA Canada had a steady, mile long lineup for people to submit cards and a lot of dealers were strict about only purchasing cards that were slabbed. The sneaker boi crowd was out in droves and many set up with elaborate tables. They were spending large on cards.

CollectKep26 · 06-07-2022, 08:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mcpheely

Weather? Please elaborate.

It's finally nice out, not so much the case in southern starts, but in the NE and Midwest. In MN, we had a long winter and a terrible cold and wet spring. The weather is finally nice. Who wants to go spend 2 hours inside at a card show? In this area it's also cabin season, Friday and noon hits and you're at the cabin until Sunday afternoon/evening.

fulltritty · 06-07-2022, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mcpheely

Weather? Please elaborate.

Hurricane season with it being in a shore town?

The walk from the VIP parking garage to the convention center in the heat?

Electric bills costing more due to summer time heat and increasing energy costs leaving you with less money?

I have no idea what he meant.

mcpheely · 06-07-2022, 08:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CollectKep26

It's finally nice out, not so much the case in southern starts, but in the NE and Midwest. In MN, we had a long winter and a terrible cold and wet spring. The weather is finally nice. Who wants to go spend 2 hours inside at a card show? In this area it's also cabin season, Friday and noon hits and you're at the cabin until Sunday afternoon/evening.

The National is the same week every year.

mcpheely · 06-07-2022, 08:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fulltritty

Hurricane season with it being in a shore town?

The walk from the VIP parking garage to the convention center in the heat?

Electric bills costing more due to summer time heat and increasing energy costs leaving you with less money?

I have no idea what he meant.

seriously

OneSickDegen · 06-07-2022, 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raleigh504

I have heard many not going to the National this year as in years past. I can see it being weather, card market being down, and the overall economy.

I don't see any of those reasons you mentioned being legitimate reasons to miss the National. However there will be many suburban rubes separated from their pelican cases in casino parking lots. It's Atlantic City FFS and walking around with expensive cards and/or cash is massively non-optimal. It's gonna be like shooting fish in a barrel LOL

fulltritty · 06-07-2022, 09:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OneSickDegen

I don't see any of those reasons you mentioned being legitimate reasons to miss the National. However there will be many suburban rubes separated from their pelican cases in casino parking lots. It's Atlantic City FFS and walking around with expensive cards and/or cash is massively non-optimal. It's gonna be like shooting fish in a barrel LOL

Especially considering the "free" parking included in the VIP packages are not at the parking garage at the convention center but a few blocks away. Even though the outlet mall is next to it, there was still quite a bit of police action going on by the garage.

I walked the length of the boardwalk from Tropicana back to the Showboat last time it was in AC with two huge bags full of boxes of Topps base cards.

Raleigh504 · 06-07-2022, 09:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OneSickDegen

I don't see any of those reasons you mentioned being legitimate reasons to miss the National. However there will be many suburban rubes separated from their pelican cases in casino parking lots. It's Atlantic City FFS and walking around with expensive cards and/or cash is massively non-optimal. It's gonna be like shooting fish in a barrel LOL

The economy not being a reason to miss it? If you loss your job or didn't get a raise, your spending power is less since the price of gas (flights) to travel is much more along with food prices jumping and soon the cost to cool your home. Unless you are one of the influencers/sneaker bois that lives at home and borrows your mom's van to carpool with your other 8 influencers/sneaker bois, the economy is easily a sufficient answer.

Note: If this isn't your full-time job to sell/flip (assuming the normal hobby people are also married or have kids and don't have high 5 to 6 figures in cash) then the bad economy is still a reason.

Raleigh504 · 06-07-2022, 09:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CollectKep26

It's finally nice out, not so much the case in southern starts, but in the NE and Midwest. In MN, we had a long winter and a terrible cold and wet spring. The weather is finally nice. Who wants to go spend 2 hours inside at a card show? In this area it's also cabin season, Friday and noon hits and you're at the cabin until Sunday afternoon/evening.

Exactly, I would rather be outside enjoying the weather than being in a crowded area with dealer's priced over eBay.

Now if you are flush with cash and have 6-7 figures to spend on some rare stuff, then this is the place.

OneSickDegen · 06-07-2022, 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raleigh504

The economy not being a reason to miss it?

I understand the point you are making but this is a "destination" event people plan for years in advance. I'm quite confident there will be record attendance even tho it's not held a central geographic location easier to get to (like Chicago)

It's not the same as traveling to the Dallas card show or other regional shows like that on a whim where it's easier to skip.

The broader economy isn't even bad yet. Yes people are losing jobs but we still have record low unemployment rates. I think you're confusing employment, which is still high, with sentiment, which is low.

RetailChamp · 06-07-2022, 09:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain1302

No doubt the economy is the biggest issue for cards in my opinion. I just went to the Nashville show couple weeks ago and it was horrible. Very few deals to be made and most dealers were at or above ebay comps. I was mainly looking for Bowman Chrome baseball prospects and 90's inserts. I spent $137 total.

Are you talking about the one at the school gym in Antioch? I was there for the mid-May show, and had an awesome time! I did about $3k in sales walking around, traded another $2k, and spent about $800. (To be fair, I deal in 90s and 00s and HOF stuff, I don't think I have anything in my collection past 2018 that isn't a Blue Jay, so that probably helped.)

I was on a time restriction, and only made it through half the building. Had lots of great conversations with guys behind the tables. Sorry you didn't have the same experience.

06-07-2022, 08:13 AM	#140
Triple B Member Join Date: Jan 2012 Location: Toronto Posts: 6,134	We just had our version of The National here in Toronto (The Toronto Sports Card Expo) and the place was absolutely PACKED. Dealers were buying at 70%-80% comps (the ones I sold to, anyway) but the issue was buying. There were some deals but you could tell who bought in at the spike as prices were nuts with very little flexibility. Dealers who brought stuff that people had no interest in suffered. There were quite a few set up selling stuff that made me think "what a waste of a weekend for that dude". PSA Canada had a steady, mile long lineup for people to submit cards and a lot of dealers were strict about only purchasing cards that were slabbed. The sneaker boi crowd was out in droves and many set up with elaborate tables. They were spending large on cards. __________________ Wanted Dead or Alive! 1. 1997 Bowman's Best Jose Cruz, Jr Atomic Refractor Autograph 2. 1997 SPx Jose Cruz, Jr. Grand Finale /50

06-07-2022, 06:49 AM	#132
noaskiecards Member Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 1,145	Not super related but I recently sold stocks on fidelity and a week later I still can't cash it out. It used to take 3 days at most. I wonder if we are entering a liquidity crisis or maybe I just need to call them lol We have more debt than ever before and every month or quarter we need one thing - cash - to pay off debt. People can't refinance into the future anymore by pushing debt down the road forever due to high rates or they can but much higher interest. The fed is trying to cool inflation by making the dollar stronger essentially. Not a good time to be in risk assets so I can see card prices dropping much more, especially for over hyped guys. Not a good time to have tons of inventory and when everyone sells at once due to panic then prices become a falling knife. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

06-07-2022, 07:12 AM	#134
Captain1302 Member Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: Liberty, Ky Posts: 545	No doubt the economy is the biggest issue for cards in my opinion. I just went to the Nashville show couple weeks ago and it was horrible. Very few deals to be made and most dealers were at or above ebay comps. I was mainly looking for Bowman Chrome baseball prospects and 90's inserts. I spent $137 total.